Category: Gold and Silver 2017
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Four Things We Learned About Gold in 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2017 is almost over. What did we learn about gold during this time?
Gold May Prosper in Good Times
First, gold may shine in unpleasant macroeconomic outlook. Generally, gold performs the best during economic slowdown or turmoil. In 2017, the economic conditions were far from recessionary climate. Global economic growth accelerated and became more synchronized among countries. The U.S. economy performed well, the unemployment rate achieved a record low, while inflation remained subdued. The Fed hiked interest rates three times, while the Republicans managed to pass a tax bill. And the U.S. stock market continued its rally, while the cryptocurrencies experienced a parabolic rise at the end of a year. Does it look like a supporting environment for gold? Not really. However, the price of the yellow metal has risen more than 12 percent in 2017, as one can see in the chart below. Perhaps it’s not very impressive, but not bad given the macroeconomic environment. And much better than a savings account or Treasuries.
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Friday, December 29, 2017
Gold: This Might Hurt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The gold volatility index moved to a new all-time low and there was no meaningful action in gold recently. Well, we profited on the decline and on the following upswing, but the price action that we saw was nothing to call home about. For months, gold has been moving around the $1,300 level and it’s trading relatively close to it also today. But, will this action persist for much longer? Not likely. It seems that something is about to hit the fan.
Before this week, there were many signs pointing to lower prices of precious metals in the following weeks, but not necessarily in the following days. This week, we are finally seeing the bearish short-term confirmations. We discussed them yesterday and in today’s analysis, we provide a big update.
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Thursday, December 28, 2017
Gold, Bitcoin and the Blockchain Replaces the Banks – Realists Guide To The Future / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Futurist guide to 2028 shows a world of uncertainty and disruption
– One scenario suggests cybersecurity attacks will result in bitcoin and blockchain’s dominance of financial systems
– Cybersecurity threat will still loom large and wreak havoc. Gold, silver and other real assets will benefit.
– Adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain will send gold price soaring
– Use of cryptocurrencies to take advantage of world systems will see investors turn to safe havens such as gold bullion and coins
Tuesday, December 26, 2017
Gold and Silver Intermediate Cycle Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: SurfCity
While we are not out of the woods just yet, evidence it beginning to build, from a Price and Time perspective, that an Intermediate Cycle low has been left behind. Gold’s daily and weekly charts look constructive thus far as are the COT reports but the volume patterns are a bit concerning as volume is declining as we have moved higher and we want to see this pattern reverse as volume should start to increase as we move higher. We have confirmed that Gold has found a short term TCL / DCL, including a failed TCL which is one of the factors we look for when a longer ICL develops.
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Friday, December 22, 2017
Fed Unwinds, Gold Market Yawns / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In October, the Federal Reserve started the unwinding of its massive balance sheet. According to the addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans revealed in June 2017, Fed officials wanted to reduce the size of its security portfolio by $10 billion in October ($6 billion in Treasuries and $4 billion in the mortgage-backed assets). Let’s analyze whether this is really what happened, how the so-called quantitative tightening has influenced the financial markets so far, and what the Fed’s normalization would mean for the gold market.
Friday, December 22, 2017
Will Tax Bill Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
This week, the U.S. Congress approved the tax bill. What does it mean for the gold market?
So it finally happened. After months of struggle, the U.S. lawmakers passed a tax reform on Wednesday. Now, Trump has to sign it into law. What’s in the final version? The bill maintains current seven tax brackets for individuals, but temporarily lowers most income levels and rates for each one. It also increases the standard deduction.
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Wednesday, December 20, 2017
Be a Precious Metals' Winner with a Mind Like Water / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: MoneyMetals
We're in the midst of a massive, transformational change that will redefine where we are, what we think is true, and where we believe the future is headed.
With sensory input from across the political and economic spectrum of the Internet bombarding us 24/7, it's understandably difficult to follow through on a decision once made, even if you've researched carefully and thought things through beforehand.
Nowhere is this more difficult right now than the decision of whether or not to invest in – or add to – one's position in the physical gold and silver space.
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Wednesday, December 20, 2017
U.S. Industrial Production in November 2017 and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Industrial production in the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in November. What does it mean for the gold market?
The U.S. industrial production rose 0.2 percent last month, but it was flat if we exclude oil and gas extraction. It was slightly below expectations, but it was the third monthly increase in a row. Importantly, expenditures on business equipment climbed 5.2 percent over the last twelve months. Moreover, the capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased from 77.0 to 77.1 percent in November, the highest level since early 2015. Another positive in the report was an upward revision to October’s industrial production from 0.9 percent to 1.2 percent.
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Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Yellen’s December 2017 Press Conference and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The latest FOMC meeting was accompanied by Janet Yellen’s press conference. Let’s analyze the implications of her remarks for the gold market.
Solid Growth, Strong Labor Market, and Subdued Inflation
In her opening remarks, Yellen noted that economic activity has been solid recently, the labor market has been strong, but inflation has been running below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective. She, thus, upgraded the macroeconomic outlook, as she used to speak about a moderate pace of economic growth and about a strengthening, but not necessarily strong labor market. Although inflation continued to run below the Fed’s target, Yellen said that the FOMC members “continue to believe that this year’s surprising softness in inflation primarily reflects transitory developments that are largely unrelated to broader economic conditions.” Hence, her introductory remarks sounded rather hawkish, which is not good news for the gold market.
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Tuesday, December 19, 2017
New EU Rules For Cross-Border Cash, Gold Bullion Movements / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– War on cash continues and expands to affect non-criminals including gold owners
– New definitions of “cash” to be drawn up by EU to include gold and precious metals
– Claim cash and gold bullion “often used for criminal activities such as money laundering, or terrorist financing”
– Legislation will allow authorities to seize assets from those ‘without a criminal conviction’
– New rules usurp those currently in existence since 2005
Tuesday, December 19, 2017
Gold Cycle is Down, as the Multimonth Consolidation Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets, noting speculation has reached 'bull market values'.
Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
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Tuesday, December 19, 2017
If You Listen to Youtube Commenters Gold Is Dead And Crypto Will Never, Ever Go Down In Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jeff_Berwick
If you read the Youtube comments, many people think I am crazy for suggesting that those who have held crypto for the last year, or longer, and who have gains of 2,000-600,000% might want to take some profits and invest in an unloved sector like precious metals and gold stocks.
This is very interesting, because for the last six years, whenever I would mention that people should invest in cryptocurrencies as well as precious metals, many Youtube commenters would jeer me as being crazy for investing in a Ponzi scheme or scam such as bitcoin.
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Monday, December 18, 2017
Gold and CPI and Retail Sales in November 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the reports on U.S. consumer inflation and retail sales were released. What do they imply for the gold market?
Consumer prices jumped 0.4 percent in November, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. However, the move was driven mainly by higher costs of gasoline and fuel oil. The energy index increased 3.9 percent last month. Hence, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased merely 0.1 percent. On an annual basis, the core CPI was 1.7 percent, which means a drop from 1.8 percent in October. The overall index soared 2.2 percent, rising from 2.0 percent in October and exceeding the Fed’s target again. Therefore, there was a slight shift up in the overall index, but a minimal slowdown in core inflation, as one can see in the chart below.
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Monday, December 18, 2017
Gold’s Shooting Star and Its Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: P_Radomski_CFA
After three weeks of declines, gold finally moved higher last week. Was this move surprising? Not at all, if you read our analysis of the previous week’s huge decline in platinum. The sizable slide in the latter was likely to trigger at least a small rally and that’s what we saw last week. However, gold reversed quite clearly on Friday and shooting star candlesticks, as these sessions are called, are signs of a reversal. Did we see one?
That’s not likely. There are several reasons not to believe the shooting start in gold. Let’s take a look at yellow metal’s chart for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, December 18, 2017
Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof that the Paper Gold Price is a Fraud / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Stewart_Dougherty
In recent months, the issuance of gold Exchange for Physical (EFP) contracts has surged. EFPs convert a physically deliverable Comex gold contract into an LBMA or LME contract supposedly deliverable at a later date ex London and/or Hong Kong. As an incentive for Comex contract holders to accept EFPs, a cash bonus reportedly is paid. EFPs in silver are also being issued in vast quantities, but we will focus on gold for brevity.
Most gold market observers believe that EFPs are a Comex gimmick designed to prevent, or at least forestall a formal Comex delivery failure. We believe the full story behind the EFPs is more complicated and disturbing, and that it involves collusion, conspiracy, and fraud.
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Sunday, December 17, 2017
Gold And Silver Futures Swing From Bearish To Bullish In Just Two Weeks / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: John_Rubino
After holding onto huge, unprofitable long positions for months, gold and silver futures speculators are finally giving up and bailing out, while commercial traders (who take the opposite side of these trades, since every long requires an offsetting short) are closing out their shorts at a near-record pace.
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Saturday, December 16, 2017
Amid Bad Fundamentals, Gold Sector Rally May Have Begun / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Tanashian
We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector. I’ve marked up Sentimentrader‘s seasonal gold pattern to show the secondary low made (on average over 30 years) in December and the January ramp up that follows (on average).
Saturday, December 16, 2017
Gold Bullish on US Fed Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been battered lower in recent months as gold-futures speculators fled in dread of the Fed-rate-hike boogeyman. As universally expected, the Fed’s 5th rate hike of this cycle indeed came to pass this week. When gold didn’t collapse as irrationally feared, the cowering futures traders were quick to start returning. Past Fed rate hikes have actually proven very bullish for gold, and this latest one will be no exception.
Back in early September, gold was sitting pretty near $1348. It had rallied dramatically out of its usual summer-doldrums low in its typical major autumn rally, blasting 11.2% higher in just 2.0 months. But even way back then, Fed-rate-hike fears for the FOMC’s December 13th meeting started creeping in. When gold peaked on September 7th, federal-funds futures implied December rate-hike odds running just 32%.
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Thursday, December 14, 2017
Strap Yourself In - We Are About To See Some Big Moves In Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Avi_Gilburt
Recent price action
The last week has seen the metals and miners drop down into support regions. As I write this, we are sitting just over major support for most of the charts I follow.
Whereas the GDX likely provides the cleanest picture of the market potential right now, I will be providing you guidance about the GDX in my analysis below. And, while I maintain a strong bullish bias for 2018, the action we see in the coming weeks will tell us when we can begin to take a more immediate bullish perspective.
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Thursday, December 14, 2017
December 2017 FOMC Meeting and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Yesterday, the Fed released its most recent monetary policy statement. How can it affect the financial markets?
In line with expectations, the Fed raised the federal funds rate target by 25 base points to the 1.25-1.50 percent range. This way, the U.S. central bank delivered the third hike this year, and the fifth rate increase in the post-crisis period. The most important paragraph of the released monetary policy statement is, thus, as follows:
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