Category: Stock Market 2017
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 10, 2017
SPX Showing Weakness, but No Breakdown, Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX futures have been testing yesterday’s low, but no breakdown, yet. I am still treating the peak at 2403.87 as wave [a] of 5. Since it is an (a)-(b)-(c) wave already, it may be complete, but we will not have confirmation until SPX declines beneath the Wave 4 low at 2379.75.
ZeroHedge reports, “Just as the reflation trade appeared to be finding its latest wind, after a modest rise in oil prices over the past 24 hours (now that Andurand has finished liquidating his book) and a halt to the commodity rout in China, Trump threw the markets for a loop again with his firing of James Comey, which has implications on everything from Trump's tax policy (most likely delayed due to more infighting between, and within, the two parties) to US geopolitics (will Trump launch another attack, this time against N. Korea to deflect from this scandal?)”
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Wednesday, May 10, 2017
Nasdaq 100 Rockets to New All-Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a very interesting session. The Nasdaq 100 had a big gap up, and a sharp run in the morning, taking it up to over 5690, and the S&P 500 popped to 2404, both reaching new all-time highs. In the afternoon, they had a slow, 5-wave constructive pullback, although news of North Korea doing additional missile test caused the market to take a big hit. In the last fifteen minutes, they snapped back just as sharply, and actually finished up on the day on the Nasdaq 100, while the Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly lower in the red.
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Tuesday, May 09, 2017
Stock Market Option's Timing Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Marty_Chenard
The Option's Timing Indicator showed trend lines that were neutral while in positive territory after more convergence. The thick red line showed a down tick that was below the red trend line and below the blue trend line. [The thick red line above the red and blue trend lines usually means that a bottoming process is trying to start and below them has the potential of being serious trouble.]
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Tuesday, May 09, 2017
Stock Market May 8-11… High or Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Ed_Carlson
In the 4/17/17 Market Update I wrote of a low-low-high interval pointing to a high on 5/11/17.
The lows of July 8, 1932 and December 9, 1974 were arguably the two most important lows of the 20th century. They lie 15,494 days apart. Adding an additional 15,494 days to the 1974 low points to a high on May 11, 2017.
In the 4/24/17 Market Update I wrote of a Hybrid Lindsay forecast pointing to a high in the period May 8-11.
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Monday, May 08, 2017
Stocks Are Back At Record High, But Will They Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, May 08, 2017
Stock Market B Wave Still Favored / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 on 3/08 continues, possibly as the top of the B-wave.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, May 06, 2017
US Stock Market Resumes Uptrends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started the week at SPX 2384. After a rally to SPX 2394 on Monday the market pulled back to 2380 on Wednesday, and retested it on Thursday. Then the market rallied to end the week SPX 2399, its highest level since March 1st. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were generally positive. On the downtick: the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, the PCE, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and the ADP. On the uptick: personal income, auto sales, ISM services, factory orders, monthly payrolls, consumer credit; plus weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit and the unemployment rate all improved. Next week’s highlights: the CPI/PPI, retail sales and wholesale/business inventories.
Friday, May 05, 2017
Stock Market Volatile Consolidation Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a very topsy-turvy volatile session. The day started out with a hard gap down, they bounced hard, came down again with another bounce up, came down one more time around the noon hour even harder, and then rallied for the rest of the day. They consolidated late in the day and firmed up to close mixed on the day.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 6.43 at 20,951.47. The S&P 500 was up 1.39 at 2389.52. The Nasdaq 100 was up 1.16 at 5626.32.
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Thursday, May 04, 2017
Stock Market Positive Expectations, But Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, May 04, 2017
Stock Market Pull Back Shallow, More to Go / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The market is gradually becoming oversold with much resistance. The cycles suggest a low no later than around Friday this week. May 17th is the next three week cycle top and is also a Saturn turn. Waves tend to equal each other in time and price, especially an "a-b-c" type advance. We are in wave 'b' of that advance. This would suggest a low late in the week probably somewhere near to SPX 2361/62 and a final top (wave 'c') on May 17th near to 2431 (see chart below).
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Wednesday, May 03, 2017
Stock Market 'Sell in May and Go Away' in 9 out of 11 Countries Makes Sense to Do So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Dimitri_Speck
Most people are probably aware of the saying "sell in May and go away". This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market's performance is far worse in the six summer months than in the six winter months.
Numerous studies have been undertaken particularly with respect to US stock markets, which confirm the relative weakness of the stock market in the summer.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Stock Market VIX Gets Jammed to a New 10-year Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX was jammed down to 9.90 toward the close today. This makes a new low not seen since December 15, 2006. That also means that Super Cycle Wave (b) may just be finishing in VIX.
I have to caution that the decline may not be complete, even though I have labeled it so. Today is just 4 days shy of a probable 540-week Super Cycle in the VIX, divisible by 4.3 and 3.1416. The normal Super Cycle in VIX is 516 weeks.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Stock Market Due for Minor Pull Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Brad_Gudgeon
Over 2 weeks ago, I was looking for a top on April 26th and another on May 1. Today's top appears to be a secondary top, which is pointing down in the coming days. My best guess is a move to 2356/57 SPX by Tuesday this week, and by Thursday or Friday, a move down to as low as the 2344/47 area covering or filling the recent gaps. Another move back up to new highs by around May 16th or 17th should be it for the intermediate term with a major 18 month low beckoning in early to mid August of this year.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Stock Market Euro-phoria / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Ed_Carlson
A critical factor in risk-asset pricing is inflation expectations and inflation expectations are directly affected by the price of commodities. Looking at the futures markets, equity bulls should be concerned. The damage to commodities is already showing in the Chinese equities complex.
Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Trump's Tax Outline Won't Avert Stock Market Correction / Politics / Stock Market 2017
By: Michael_Pento
The primary catalyst to keep investor confidence sky-high while stocks are fliting with the most expensive valuations in history is the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax relief plan. But one thing is for sure, the current tax changes being proposed by the President will morph over time and will be significantly watered down if it is ever to become law. Therefore, since the final plan will be significantly diluted from the proposed form, its effect on the economy and for equity prices will be extremely attenuated. This means the current ebullience on Wall Street is about as far offside as possible.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Trump Tax Cut Can Create the Last Stock Market Rally Since 2016 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
As part of President’s Trump campaign pledge, he wants to sharply reduce the tax rate for all businesses from multinational corporations to mom-and-pop shops to 15%. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin said this is the biggest tax cut and the largest tax reform in the U.S history. Currently the U.S. corporate tax rate is 35% and it is the highest among developed economies. President Trump also plans to simplify and reduce individual tax rate with the highest individual tax rate dropping to 25%.
Monday, May 01, 2017
Stock Market Getting to "B" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 continues,
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, April 29, 2017
Bifurcated US Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started to week at SPX 2349. After a gap up opening on Monday, and another gap up opening on Tuesday, the market hit SPX 2398 by Wednesday. After that it pulled back to end the week at SPX 2384. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.45%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, durable goods, pending home sales, Q1 GDP, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, new home sales and the Chicago PMI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FED’s FOMC, the ISMs, and monthly payrolls. Best to your week!
Friday, April 28, 2017
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Gary_Tanashian
It’s a big picture view with a story to tell. People are micro-managing the VIX, talking about how it either doesn’t work anymore, if it ever did, or is forecasting extreme doom imminently (through investor complacency). But what is “imminently”? Is it next month or is it the 2-3 years that this indicator often wallows along the bottom of its support zone before overseeing a coming Armageddon? Sure, it started wallowing in the zone back in 2013, but then the ‘fuel stops’ that were ultimately bullish (the 2010, 2011 and 2015 corrections) cleared the overhead inventory of investors out of the markets.
Friday, April 28, 2017
What Happened to the Stock Market Crash Experts Were Predicting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Sol_Palha
"Any jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a carpenter to build it." ~ Sam Rayburn
One jackass (oops we mean expert) after another, has been predicting that this market is ready to crash. The problem is that these brain surgeons have been making this argument for so long it almost sounds like the definition of insanity. Insanity boils down to doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a new outcome. These predictions are so off the mark that they make a broken clock look fantastic which happens to be right once or twice a day depending on whether you follow military time or not. This market is unlike any other market; it has moved from being the most hated bull market to the most insane bull market of all time. In such an environment technical analysis is technically trash and fundamentals are fundamentally flawed. In fact, for the most part, market technicians have no idea of what they are talking about; they figure that by studying someone else theory or drawing squiggly lines on some chart they can decipher the market.
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