Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, September 16, 2019
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Two things should be obvious: We are in a totally artificial recovery due only to global printing of $13 trillion and more recently, tax cuts; and this is now the longest rally and economic recovery in U.S. exceeding 10 years.There has been a recession every 10 years since I was a kid: 1962, 1970, 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, and most recently 2008-2009.
The sunspot cycle has captured them all and that has averaged a little over 10 years since 1900. That cycle is near a bottom and is not due to turn up until at least late 2020 and more likely 2021 or later.
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Friday, September 13, 2019
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on?
Of course who knows? But lets continue.
The fundamentals behind this may be:
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Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Stock Market Price Structure Still Suggests We Are Within Volatile Rotation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This shortened holiday week has been full of crazy price rotation, political intrigue, surprise news events and, we are certain, full of headaches for some traders. Still, we managed to pull out four consistently profitable trades for our members by sticking to our proven trading systems and deploying effective position sizing techniques. Not a bad week for us at all.
Today, we are writing this research post to highlight that price is still not “out of the woods” in terms of price structure and/or price rotation. Yes, there was quite a bit of external news that drove prices higher on Thursday and Friday (BREXIT, Earnings, and China decreasing the lending rates as well as decreasing bank asset levels in an effort to prompt more lending). These news items continue to drive price action and rotation. The VIX has settled at 15.00 as of Friday – the lowest level seen since early August 2019. Our opinion is that this is just a brief pause before more chaos hits the markets.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Stock Market Still Treading Water / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 08, 2019
US Stock Market Hasn’t Cleared The Storm Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As much as we would like to report that the US Stock market has recently cleared the future concerns of a global economic recession as well as expanded into a new growth phase, we simply can’t make that claim give the data we are seeing from our proprietary price modeling systems. Overall, this final quarter of 2019, and early into 2020, may shape up to be a very volatile period in the global markets.
Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
Recently, we posted a research post highlighting the price structure of the ES and TRAN charts that continue to suggest price weakness is still driving overall price rotation. The TRAN chart is very telling currently as it shows much more substantial price weakness in comparison to the ES, NQ, and YM charts. We believe the continued price strength is seen in the ES, NQ, and YM charts is related to the continued “Capital Shift” where foreign investors are still pouring capital into the US markets believing they are the safest and most secure investments for the future.
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Sunday, September 08, 2019
Five Feet High And Rising - Stock Market Bulls False Sense of Security / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Richard_Mills
How high's the water, mama?
Five feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Five feet high and risin'
Well, the rails are washed out north of town
We gotta head for higher ground
We can't come back till the water comes down,
Five feet high and risin'
Johnny Cash, “Five Feet High and Rising”
US stock markets on Tuesday were like a teenager forced back to school after a summer of fast cars and girls - insolent and bad-tempered. Snapping a three-day winning streak, the Dow and the S&P 500 both fell after US and Chinese tariffs took effect over the long weekend. The sell-off was also influenced by weak US manufacturing data, and more worries over the UK crashing out of the European Union, after the governing Conservative Party lost its majority in the House of Commons due to a Tory member crossing the floor to the Liberal Democrats.
The US manufacturing index for August was just 49.1, marking the first time in three years that America’s manufacturing sector shrank, stoking fears that the slowdown in Europe - Germany is already in recession - has crossed the Atlantic.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slid to 1.47%, from Friday’s close of 1.50%. Two weeks ago the 2-year Treasury note was higher than the 10-year, a worrying signal that investors are less willing to risk their money on a long-term debt instrument. Known as a yield curve inversion, this phenomenon has been a near-perfect recession indicator for the past 60-odd years.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
The Stock Market Rally is Almost Over, Next Comes the Big Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
With this morning’s breakout, stocks (blue line) have finally moved to within spitting distance of their upside target as predicted by the credit markets (black line).
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
The Stock Market Is Not Looking Healthy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I am often asked to provide a sample of the analysis I provide to members. So, in this week’s article regarding the stock market, I chose to reproduce the general discussion I provided within my analysis posted to members on Saturday night. Please understand that my detailed charts and the discussion of the specific smaller degree analysis is being left out from this public update, and is only available to members.
Back in the 1930s, an accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that financial markets are fractal in nature. This means that they are variably self-similar at different degrees of trend.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.
Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Stock Market in a Holding Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Stock Market S&P500 Candlestick Pattern On Friday Signals Price Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we close out the week and watched the markets trade in a rotational price manner, it became very clear to us that the patterns setting up in price continue to support our overall analysis of the markets and the potential for a bigger downside price move. We issued a call that an August 19th breakdown was expected on or near the trigger date (Aug 19th). We’ve taken some heat from our followers and readers regarding this call and the fact that the markets have yet to really breakdown below current support levels.
As we’ve learned from our experience and previous analysis/calls – the markets can continue to act in ways that run counter to our analysis for much longer and in a much more irrational manner than we can survive the risks associated with any irrational price moves. Yet, at this point, we don’t see anything irrational in the markets – we see opportunity.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Stock Market S&P 500 Nearing Previous Highs, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session didn’t change much. Stocks extended their short-term consolidation following Monday’s rebound off a support level. The S&P 500 index continues to trade within a four-week-long consolidation after the early August decline. Was Monday’s advance an upward reversal or just upward correction before another leg down?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.4-1.0% on Wednesday, as they retraced their Tuesday’s decline. The S&P 500 index got back to the short-term local lows on Friday and then it bounced off that support level. The broad stock market’s gauge is now 4.7% below July the 26th record high of 3,027.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,900-2,920, marked by the recent local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,850-2,860. The next support level is at 2,820-2,825, marked by the previous lows.
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Friday, August 30, 2019
Europe on the brink, World on a Edge – Stocks Trading as a 15% correction Draws Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
These are brutal times. Stocks are still at highs while the underlying economy is slipping away sharply. United States is slipping into a recession which they can ill afford. The country runs a debt of over 20 trillion. CBO has forecast the future deficit to be in range of $1 trillion for the next 10 years. Never before has the country seen such extended budget shortfall. Over and above that, they cannot finance the deficit easily because of the existing debt. What the US desperately needs is a stock market correction to pummel money back into bonds which is exactly what is happening. Without a stock market correction, US may default on payments on its debt.
In times like these, it is best to trade with our profitable trading system called QUANTO. To use this system, you need to contact us
In Europe things are getting worse. EUROPE centric funds are seeing record outflows. Never in the last 5 years has such a large amount of capital flown out of Europe based ETF.
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Wednesday, August 28, 2019
U.S. Stocks: See What Can Happen After Volume Contracts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: EWI
Look at these "rare streaks" of contracting volume
Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter has noted that stock market volume is the most important indicator to watch besides price.
Market volume waxes and wanes. However, there are times when volume goes on mini-streaks, either expanding or contracting for four or five consecutive days.
Yet, six consecutive days is almost unheard of. But, it just happened, ending on Aug. 22. That's only the third time that volume has contracted six days in a row since 1987.
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Stock Market ES Must Hold Above 2800 Or The Selling Will Intensify / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
First off, we were so happy to hear from all of our followers over the weekend and early today regarding their support for our incredible market predictions – specifically the call about the August 19th breakdown prediction. We stuck to our guns believing in our predictive modeling systems and our research team. We knew it would be just a matter of time before the weakness our models were showing us to actualize in a real price breakdown. We want to thank all of you who wrote to us and thanked us and our team for their hard work and dedication.
Now, we’ll highlight some recent events in the ES chart (S&P500 E-Mini Futures) and how it related to the bigger picture in the markets.
Before we get into the details of the market recovery today, we want all of you to understand that is natural for the markets to move in rotational waves as price establishes new highs or lows. In fact, it is essential and healthy for the markets to do this. When the markets move in an unnatural way by trending excessively over short periods of time, it reflects an imbalance in the fundamentals of the markets or the core elements of supply/demand economics. When the bottom falls out of a market, for example, it is usually because of some type of external news item or some other type of external factor/event. The markets themselves naturally have a way of processing expectations and price value through the process of buying and selling in an open market.
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Anybody's Game in Battle Over Stock Market Week/Month-End Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
Much of last week was spent completing the upside continuation pattern from the previous week's 2823 must-hold support level on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), and then bears finally fought back on Friday.
Essentially, the bulls did a great job as the 2900/2920 ‘easy money’ targets were hit, but they just could not nail in the coffin of the bears with a close above 2955 when it mattered the most. The bears fought back against the 2955 must-hold resistance, holding the ES to a top of 2939.75 on Friday before breaking it down below the 2892 intraweek must-hold level to slaughter the bulls on a lovely August Friday. The bears were fairly impressive because they were able to fulfill all extension targets by the end of the day.
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Trade War Escalation Put Selling Pressure to S&P 500 (SPX) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Last week, there was anticipation of market volatility as the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole. President Trump and China however stole the show. China introduced fresh retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports, targeting politically sensitive products. President Trump immediately responded. Trump announced in twitter the existing 25% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese goods will rise to 30% on October 1. In addition, the 10% tariffs on another $300 billion Chinese Goods will rise to 15% instead on September 1.
In a series of Tweet storm, Trump also accused Powell of a bigger enemy than China’s President Xi Jinping and issued an order to American companies to get out of China.
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Stock Market Setting Up A Break Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
For the last 8 years, I have been publishing my analysis publicly. Yet, I am still amazed at how the market follows the patterns we track almost perfectly, and how news seems to fit in within those patterns.
This past week, as we were expecting a market top, Mr. Powel and President Trump certainly provided the catalysts for the decline for which the market was setting up.
Now, for those of you that believe that the tariff news was the “cause” the decline, I again want to remind you that the same tariff war escalation seemed to have “caused” a 9% rally in 2018. I remember how many of you who commented to my articles during that uptrend noted how it did not make sense to you.
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