Category: Stock Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, October 05, 2019
Federal Reserve Bank ‘Guarantees’ Dow Will Not Sink Below 26k / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
Today is an important day for people like myself. I have maintained for years that the Federal Reserve Bank is an evil institution and their only goal is enslavement of humans. They accomplish this task with multiple weapons. Their best weapon is the stupidity of those humans who don’t seem to understand any more about their world than does the burrow harnessed to a grinding wheel. They just keep going round and round and the only person getting anywhere is the owner of the grinding wheel. That would be the Fed.
Another powerful weapon they use is the stock market. As long as the Dow continues to advance higher, no one will question how it got there. And, as long as the Dow advances, the idiots that invest their money will continue to exude arrogance of their investment knowledge. At the end of the day, investors know nothing about anything. The Dow Jones Industrial average is now simply a carrot to keep the burrow walking in a circle.
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Friday, October 04, 2019
The Russell and Transportation Tell A Completely Different Stock Market Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been writing about the broader US stock market for many months – highlighting the Pennant/Flag formations that have continued to set up since early 2018. Sometimes, the keys to really understanding what is transpiring behind the scenes in the US markets is to pay attention to various market segments and to consider applying some “outside the box” thinking. Before you continue, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter.
Our research team would like to fall back into price analysis using the Russell 2000 and the Transportation Index as “additional measures” that mirror the US major stock market in terms of price, volatility and future price targets. The interesting facet of this type of analysis is that we can study any symbols we want and apply the different techniques, patterns and insight we learn to the total scope of the broader US stock market. Thus, we can attempt to identify how and when certain price actions may become more intense or volatile while comparing how our predictive modeling systems and other tools share unique outcomes.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019
Dow Jones may have already bottomed But SP500 & Nasdaq have further to go / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Have you been following our research? Were you prepared for this move like we were? Did you profit from this incredibly quick and volatile downside price move in the US markets? What is it going to do to the foreign markets and what next?
Our team of researchers has been all over this setup many months before it happened. In fact, we issued a research article on September 30 suggesting our predictive modeling system was warning of a big price rotation in the NQ and ES. On September 21, we authored another research article suggesting a “massive price reversion may be days or weeks away”. On September 7th, we authored yet another article suggesting “US STOCK MARKET HASN’T CLEARED THE STORM YET”
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019
Stock Market Downside Price Rotation Dominates After Manufacturing Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been all over this longer-term Pennant/Flag setup and the potential for the breakdown in the US/Global markets. The US manufacturing data released today confirmed what we believed would be the outcome of the extended trade issues between the US and China – a moderate slowdown in US manufacturing. Couple that with a US Fed that is attempting to navigate very difficult economic developments, consumers headed into the Christmas season unsure of what lies ahead, the US political environment (almost complete chaos) and uncertainties with foreign markets and we have a perfect setup for “investor malaise”.
This is something we last saw after 9/11 and even earlier in 1990 when the US invaded Kuwait. With each of these events, consumers and investors entered a phase of moderate indifference/malaise in terms of attention put towards global economics and investing as well as a general unwillingness to actively engage in anything related to investing and finance related. It appeared that consumers and investors were just busy taking care of their lives, families, jobs and watching the “news cycle” as it seemed every evening something new hit the news-cycles to distract from the markets.
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Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Conclusion / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Just when you thought things could not get any more chaotic and unpredictable up pop a series of market moving events such as the Iranians seeing red and firing 20 drones and missiles at Saudi oil infrastructure, knocking out 5% of the worlds oil supply. Though apart from the immediate spike in the crude oil price to $64, it does not appear to have resulted in a change in trend as the price has already settled into its well established $62.50 to $52.50 trading range which suggests the markets don't see this as the start of another gulf war.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Stock Market Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Price Volatility Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends. The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move. Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility. The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities. Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.
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Friday, September 27, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market is on VERY Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s drop did a lot of damage to the rally.
Stocks rolled over after hitting resistance (red line). They also broke the bearish rising wedge formation they’ve been forming over the last month (blue lines).
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Commitment From Stock Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session showcased commitment from bulls as they defended against last week’s 2980.75 key range low support on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) with a double-bottom low at 2982 during Globex trading. Price remained above the daily 20 EMA in the 2970s as the whole range day ground slowly higher with higher lows and higher highs into the regular trading hours (RTH) closing print.
The main takeaway is that the smaller range of 2980-3025 is taking place within the overall 2955-3025 range of the past couple weeks. Everybody and their mother seems to be waiting for this high level consolidation/digestion to complete and for the move toward new all-time highs as we head into next Monday’s quarter end and into October.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes. The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event). The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.
It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year. Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend. We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend. We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 22, 2019
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating. Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index). We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.
Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”. Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes. What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place. This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.
The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time. The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower. This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing. In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 2nd of my 2 part latest update to my stock market trend forecast for 2019 (Part1). Also note that the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide).
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price. When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place? This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors). This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Stock Market Looking Toppy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The current bull market has advanced for 10 years. Is it near the end of its run? How much more upside is left?
This is a question that we receive from investors at an increasing rate over the last couple of years.
Our answer is not definitive, but is based on long-term models that continually illustrate the same approximate conclusion.
Our first model is constructed on 130+ years of data. It is based on the relative performance between deflationary assets (Dow Jones Industrial Average) verses inflationary assets (Commodity Research Bureau), or the Dow verses the CRB.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.
The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.
At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.
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