Category: Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, February 10, 2025
Gold Stocks Valuation Anomaly / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stock prices have largely decoupled from their metal, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. This fundamental disconnect has spawned a shocking valuation anomaly, with gold stocks far too low relative to gold. But this aberration won’t last, as markets abhor extreme deviations from precedent. Mean reversions and proportional overshoots soon follow, so gold stocks will soar to reflect their record earnings.
Across stock markets throughout history, stock prices ultimately gravitate towards reasonable multiples of their underlying corporate profits. Those valuations vary with sectors, and herd sentiment can force them away from averages for some time. But eventually they always normalize, with mean reversions being an immutable market force. Visualize sector valuations like sine waves oscillating around long-term averages.
From a high-level valuation perspective, gold mining is a simple business. Miners excavate, haul, and crush gold-bearing ores, process them to recover the gold, then sell it usually at prevailing market prices. Profits are the difference between those and the costs of bringing that gold to market. While the metal can surge fast as this past year’s monster upleg proved again, mining costs lag way behind climbing slowly.
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Friday, December 27, 2024
Gold Stocks’ Remain Exceptionally Weak Even as Stocks Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Calm before the storm, anyone?
Turning Points Ahead
So far, this week has been calm. However, as you read in my previous analysis, the turning points are near and we still have four more sessions before the end of the year. Bitcoin just failed to move above $100k again, and it is declining in the pre-market trading, and S&P 500 futures are down as well. Time will tell if that was the beginning of a bigger downturn, or will we still have to wait for it to start.
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Thursday, November 21, 2024
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
That’s an interesting situation that we have today. Gold us up, but silver and miners are down. What gives?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 03, 2024
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stocks are heading into their winter rally, when strong seasonal tailwinds help boost their advances. This is especially pronounced when gold stocks’ primary drivers of sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals are bullish, which is certainly true today. This sector is nearing a psychological tipping point of surging popularity, making secular breakouts, and earning record profits fueled by these record gold prices.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
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Friday, September 06, 2024
GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MINING SHARES / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
No amount of wishful thinking and baseless proclamations will change that. Owning gold stocks (miners) instead of the actual physical metal (in other words, processed and refined with appropriate hallmarks and in tradable form) is a losing bet. Investors should ignore the siren song of gold mining shares.
At their highs last week, gold stocks had increased eighty percent from their lows just two years ago. If you had bought then, and held through a thirty percent drop in 2023, you would be up about seventy percent at current prices. That compares very favorably to gold which was up fifty-five percent over the same period. Congratulations if you benefited from that.
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Friday, August 23, 2024
Gold Mid-Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential just finished reporting truly-spectacular quarterly results. Fueled by dazzling record gold prices and lower mining costs, smaller gold miners’ unit earnings skyrocketed to their highest levels ever. Those incredibly-rich profits have left mid-tiers even more undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices, portending massive catch-up rallying.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only three of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings are true juniors!
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Saturday, August 17, 2024
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners just reported their best quarterly results ever! Record gold prices combined with lower mining costs catapulted unit earnings to dazzling new records. Yet despite exploding profitability, gold stocks continue to lag gold’s mighty upleg. This anomaly won’t last, as investors increasingly realize how seriously undervalued this sector remains. The resulting capital inflows will drive gold stocks way higher.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $14.0b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 25x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for nearly 4/7ths of GDX.
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Saturday, August 10, 2024
Plunging Stocks, Gold Miners, and Lucrative Implications / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The stock markets around the world are sliding, and so does bitcoin – just as I warned.
Miners invalidated their tiny breakout, closed below the July low on Friday, and they are poised to slide even more.
That’s just the beginning.
Let’s start with a quote from my Friday’s Gold Trading Alert:
Stocks might have had their “oops” moment this week. (…)
Saturday, August 10, 2024
Optimal Gold Stocks Macro Evolving / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro setup for gold stocks is evolving into something that will surprise many after decades of poor fundamentals
I don’t make a habit of pumping the most frustrating stock sector on the planet just for the sake of it. I have made a habit of discussing why, since 2003, the macro market backdrop has been adversarial to gold stocks much more often than not. By extension, internal indicators like the HUI/Gold Ratio have rightly been long-term bearish.
As you can see, the HUI/Gold ratio made a top in 2003 and has been down and flat ever since. Personally, I believe it made a double bottom earlier this year. I don’t believe that because I want to (even though I do want to). I believe it because of macro developments currently in play.
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Sunday, May 19, 2024
Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The major gold miners just wrapped up another quarterly earnings season, reporting great results. Sector unit profits continued blasting higher on stable production, lower mining costs, and record prevailing gold prices. Yet individually plenty of majors still struggled with rising expenses or lower output. So deploying capital in miners to leverage gold’s remarkable breakout requires handpicking fundamentally-superior stocks.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.9b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 28x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for fully half of GDX.
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Thursday, February 29, 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
GDXJ declined once again yesterday, but the situation in silver juniors is even worse!
Silver Juniors in Trouble
Yes, it is possible for a market to be in an even worse position than gold junior mining stocks – that’s the case with silver juniors.
To be precise, the GDXJ aims to be exposed to about 80% gold juniors and 20% of silver juniors, but the SILJ ETF aims to be exposed to just silver miners, with the focus on junior miners.