Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Crude Oil Spike Fails to Break Above Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Very interesting situation developing in nearby crude. Let's notice that the post DOE data spike propelled prices to $115.69 (so far), which hurdled the August resistance line at $114.80, benefiting our earlier ProShares Ultra-Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG) position. But it failed to hurdle the prior rally peak at $115.95 established yesterday.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Russian Bear Delivers Crude Oil and Gold a Black Swan Event / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inter-state conflict that sparked late last Friday when apparently a Georgian barrage of the break-away region of
South Ossetia
resulted in near immediate Russian invasion of heavy equipment which has been accompanied by Georgia wide air attacks . Whilst it is not entirely clear of the real truth behind the sequence of events, I am however puzzled as to how Russia could have mobilised such a large force virtually immediately that one would suspect under normal circumstances take literally as long as a week to assemble. Therefore I am leaning towards the Georgian account of events, as clearly the Georgians were tricked into a sequence of events so as the Russians could implement a plan of invasion and potential annexation of several regions of Georgia. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
Get Ready for the Next Up Leg in Crude Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Oil has pulled back from its highs, and now analysts are lining up to say the top is in. I've been saying all along that volatility is the name of the game in oil this year. Let me tell you now that I think oil could go lower in the short term — maybe to $110 a barrel, $100 if we're really lucky. Then, hold on to your socks, because we're probably seeing the set-up for oil's next HUGE rally.
Why do I think crude oil may have some more work to do on the downside? Nothing goes up in a straight line, and crude's run has been phenomenal — it was trading at just $78 a barrel a year ago. A short-term pullback is a normal and necessary part of any bull market, and crude is no different.
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Friday, August 01, 2008
Crude Oil Unable to Follow Through to the Upside / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Fits of volatility can come from 1) energy...2) financials...3) Gov't data... 4) geopolitics... take your pick, but just hope that we are not positioned opposite of the directional spike! Let's have a look at crude oil...
I do not know what to make of the enclosed hourly chart of oil, which shows this morning's spike from $122.10 to $128.60 (+5%) in a matter of minutes! The really interesting aspect of the price action, through, is its inability to follow through to the upside after hurdling yesterday's spike high at $127.89.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Crude Oil Breaks Below Major Support as Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crude Oil confirmed its forecast downtrend by decidedly breaking below support of $135. The Market Oracle forecast as of 4th of July 2008 and at a price of $146, has been for an initial downtrend to support of $135, on break of which crude oil would target a trend towards major support at $110.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Crude Oil Parabolic Move Driven by Inflation Hedging that Could Unwind / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Having turned bearish on crude oil during the run up to above $146, and without repeating recent analysis that in summary had an initial target for a decline to $135 and a secondary target of $110 on break of $135 amidst a background of a possible spike higher following an attack on Iran, which I concluded as a low probability event of less than 20%.
What is of critical importance is to remind oil investors waiting for a parabolic rise, that we are already well into a parabolic move in crude oil. Therefore waiting for a move to between $200 and $300 would be in addition to the existing parabolic move from $50 to $147 just a day ago.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Crude Oil and the 6 Year Cycle as Speculator Sentiment Reaches Extreme Highs / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Clif_Droke
In previous commentaries we took a close look at the attributes of the 6-year cycle, which is bottoming this summer. The 6-year cycle is a component of the famous 120-year Kress Cycle and when it bottoms it tends to have a pronounced effect on stock prices and often the economy.
Right now the 6-year cycle is the paramount consideration trumping all other factors in the financial markets, whether it be the credit crisis, rising food and fuel costs or anything else. For every cause must have an effect and when it comes to the markets it's the cycles that are the chief cause behind the effects we're seeing.
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Friday, July 11, 2008
Crude Oil Demand Destruction Stops at the US Border / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Peter_Schiff
As the price of oil reverses course again and closes in on the unheard of price of $150 per barrel, Americans are finally responding to the pressure and have cut back on gasoline consumption. According to a report this week, Americans used 3.3% less gasoline than at the same time last year and usage now stands at a five-year low. Although the relative merits of slowing energy consumption is a subject upon which reasonable minds can disagree, the drop is nonetheless an extremely rare event in American economic history. Many on Wall Street are cheering the possibility that further “demand destruction” will ultimately lead to significantly lower oil prices. After all, this is basic economics. Prices are a function of supply and demand, and as demand drops, prices must follow. This is simple logic, wrongly applied. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
The Big Secret about Peak Oil and the US Military / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Stathis
Those of you who do not believe Peak Oil Theory should first make sure you fully understand it. According to this theory, after a reservoir has been depleted by half of its total volume, the output begins to plateau or remain constant for some unknown period. At some later time (which is unpredictable) the output begins a permanent decline of variable duration (which is also unpredictable) until the remaining quantity of oil is no longer economically feasible to extract with current technology. Therefore, Peak Oil Theory does not state that the earth is running out of oil per say. It states that the earth is running out of inexpensive oil, otherwise known as conventional oil – the high-grade oil that comes out by drilling on land and requires minimal refinement costs. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 11, 2008
High Gas Prices Investment Opportunities / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors who seek to beat the market look for opportunities that indicate changes in market sector trends. The recent rise in the price of oil and along with it the price of gasoline is causing serious problems for people and the economy. In the past we when we have experienced spikes in the price of gasoline, it eventually fell back down as supply outstripped demand. However, there are forces in place that will keep this happy event from taking place this time. As a result, you should consider adjusting your investing themes to recognize that the price of gasoline will remain high, and likely go higher from now on. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Crude Oil Minor Recovery Bounce Underway / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a near-term technical perspective, today's geo-political "strength" in crude oil and its ETF the US Oil Trust (AMEX: USO) has the look of a minor recovery bounce rather than the start of a new upleg in the aftermath of the $6 and 5.5% decline since the July 2 high of 117.94 in the USO (to yesterday's reaction low at $111.63).Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Osama Bin Laden's Oil Price Victory Fueling Red-Hot Inflation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Sometimes your worst fears come back to bite you in the rear. Case in point: In the New York Times, on October 14, 2001 the managing director of an oil consulting firm warned: "If Bin Laden takes over and becomes king of Saudi Arabia, he'd turn off the tap ... he wants oil to be $144 a barrel."
At the time, oil traded at $23, and $144 a barrel seemed downright impossible. Well, terror mastermind Osama Bin Laden, safe in his undisclosed rat hole, must be grinning like a Cheshire cat, because last week oil soared past $144 a barrel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
The Oil Crisis and Gold / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: David_Vaughn
One of the hardest things about life is when we have to close a chapter. Yesterday becomes merely a collection of happy memories and those memories are all that remain. That perhaps is why we have always clung so hard to nostalgia. The world is constantly changing and that unfortunately even includes our own lives. In life personal actions always produce consequences. Unfortunately, this principal even includes things of material value. And the consequence of less oil produces the consequence of higher prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 07, 2008
So You Think Oil's Expensive Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Robert_Carpenter
Oil's move above $140 a barrel and the pronouncement by OPEC that oil prices could rise between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer is another hit for US consumers whose budgets are already at the breaking point. In addition, rumors on Tuesday that Israel had bombed Iran 's nuclear facilities resulted in a sharp spike in oil prices, reminding investors how painfully delicate the market is.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 04, 2008
Crude Oil Seeking Black Swan for Spike above $150 in Overbought State / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The recent week has seen crude oil soar through $140 onwards and upwards to a new record high of $146. Much of this gain has been attributed to the growing tension in the middle east with regards a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and the drop in US oil stockpiles.The rise has been accompanied by investors dumping stocks as highly inflationary oil prices continue to contribute towards the destruction of economic activity that pushed the major US indices into technical bear markets (20% down from Oct 07 highs).. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Oil Crisis Worsening! Crude Oil Breaks Above $145, What's Next… / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes:I've been pounding the table about an energy crisis for quite some time. As a loyal reader of my Money and Markets column, you might think I've been proven right by gasoline soaring over $4 a gallon in 32 states and oil hitting new record highs.
But most of what I've been talking about is simply the long-term supply/demand squeeze that will transform our oil-addicted civilization in the future.
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Sunday, June 29, 2008
Russia Could be Trigger for $200 Oil and Global Recession / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Jennifer_Yousfi
Higher oil could lead to a worldwide economic collapse, according to a top analyst at Germany's largest bank.
"Two-hundred dollar oil would break the back of the global economy," Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG ( DB ), told Bloomberg News in an interview yesterday (Wednesday) in Tokyo. "Next step after $200 would be global recession and bad news for everybody."
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Saturday, June 28, 2008
Crude Oil Unsustainable Advance and Stock Market Double Non-Confirmation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Tim_Wood
For weeks now one of the major topics in the news and amongst the politicians is the price of oil. The republicans want to begin more deep water drilling and open up parts of Alaska to drilling that has historically been protected. The democrats have introduced a bill to limit speculation to only those that are end-users of oil. It seems that the word speculator is becoming a four-letter word. I also hear talk of conspiracy and manipulation by the masters of the world. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Fuel Subsidies In Mexico Stimulate Black Market Activity In The US / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Along the frontier between Southern California and Baja California it has always been a tradition for consumers to engage in a bit of arbitrage due to the temporary differences in prices for basic goods. Normally, this has been confined to non-durables and foodstuffs. But, beyond Mexican “cerveza” and other spirits, the changing price of oil has jump-started black market activity north of the border.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Peak Oil Truths and Consequences / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: I hear that along with Peak Oil, the world is now hitting Peak Fertilizer. Well, there's enough BS being spread about the oil crisis that it could solve our fertilizer problem in a jiffy.
Much of it is — no surprise — coming from Washington. Another load of bull is coming from our so-called "friends" in the Middle East. Even corporate America, where you might expect common sense to hold some sway, is busy shoveling misinformation. As a result, many investors are left neck-deep, choking, and grasping for a lifeline.
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