Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Hyperinflation Begining in China and Will Destroy the U.S. Dollar / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Eric_deCarbonnel
The conventional wisdom on China is dead wrong. Specifically, there is a widespread belief, as expressed by Goldman Sachs, that "China will keep the yuan trading within a narrow range in 2009 due concerns about exporters." Worse still, others are even predicting that China will devalue its currency! The sheer wishful thinking is astounding! The idea that "China will keep the dollar peg to help its exporters" ranks all the way up there with "Housing prices always go up" and "You can spend your way to prosperity". Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? Soft Depression? / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: John_Mauldin
- The Endgame
- Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted
- Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got!
- Problem #1: Deflation
- Problem #2: Pushing on a String
- The Muddle Through Middle
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.
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Saturday, January 17, 2009
Stimulus, Schmimulus- Fiscal Lifejacket or Money Down a Rathole? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Mike_Whitney
There's no guarantee that Obama's stimulus package will work, but there is growing consensus that something has to be done...and fast! The economy is contracting faster than anytime since the 1930s. Unemployment is soaring, consumer spending is plummeting, and the country appears to slipping towards another Great Depression. The Federal Reserve's near-zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections haven't helped at all. That's why the focus has shifted from monetary policy to Keynesian fiscal stimulus. When businesses and consumers cut back on spending, the government has to make up for the loss in aggregate demand. That's what Obama's $775 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is really all about. It won't fix the economy; it's just a way to minimize the shock of a hard landing. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Euro-zone: Interest Rates, Inflation, the Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lopped another 50 bps off its refi rate this morning, taking it to 2.0%. Rates have now come down by 225 bps in four successive steps, including a 75 bps cut in December, as the Euro-zone economy hits the skids and inflation drops sharply.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Credit Where Credit is Due / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, in a speech before the London School of Economics, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a perverse economic theory in his quest to gather support for never-ending Wall Street bailouts; "This disparate treatment, unappealing as it is, appears unavoidable. Our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit, and the consequences for the broader economy of financial instability are thus powerful and quickly felt." In other words, credit is the lifeblood of our economy, and the continued operation of credit providers is an issue of national security.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Confidence is the Problem Not Simply Deflation or Inflation! / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
Analysts always trust figures and rely on them completely. Next they support forecasts backed by numbers too. All of us are vulnerable to reports backed by figures from reputable firms or forecasters. But a glance back over the last 18 months shows just how far off the mark such reports were. When we look at the problems facing the globe, we factor in reports of heavy deflation unfolding, followed by unquantifiable inflation. We receive reports of economic stimulation figures that stagger the imagination, that are bound to turn the globe back to vigorous growth and quickly? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Worthless Trillion Dollar Paper / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
Recently Zimbabwe announced that it will issue a new set of notes which will include a 10 trillion, 20 trillion, 50 trillion and 100 trillion denomination. One commentator stated that these notes will be introduced to "keep pace with the hyperinflation that has caused many to abandon the country's currency."
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Saving & Spending and the Credit Crisis Solutions / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Adrian_Ash
(with no apologies whatsoever to John Maynard Keynes)
"Saving the savers is not the priority...This is surely the time to encourage people to spend, spend, spend..." - Editorial in the Financial Times , Tues 6 Jan.
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Downward Economic Spiral Driving Consumption Down / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Oxbury_Research
Don't Forget the Economics - Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs, who said this month that he is being treated for a nutritional ailment, will take a medical leave of absence through the end of June. The shares fell 10 percent.
Although I wish the best for Steve Jobs, I care very little about this whole Apple story. The reason I bring it up is due wholly to CNBC. They've covered this story, along with the Madoff, for a large portion of the day.
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Thursday, January 15, 2009
Global Economic Demand Collapse, Bonds Next / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Christopher_Laird
Anyone following the economic news in recent months has to be stunned at the declining economic activity. Japan had a 16% drop in machine orders for November. US car sales down 30 to 40%. Even world car leader Toyota has sales down 20 to 30%. Worldwide car sales are way down too, anywhere from 10 to 20% depending on which area. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
UK Retail Sales Crash, No Vadera Green Shoots Visible / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite the hype of deep discounting, the retail sales figures released today by major high street retailers shows sales slumping by between 7.5% and 10% which clearly demonstrates that the long experienced shoppers to a large degree did not get caught up with sales frenzy of previous years and refused to fall for the sales gimmicks where actual real discounting was few and far between. This coupled with the economy falling of the edge of a cliff despite green shoots ramblings by
Labour's Shriti Vadera,
sets a bleak scene for retailers for the whole of 2009 as my earlier analysis pointed out that the 30% crash in sterling will lead to higher restocking costs, whilst at the same time consumers increasingly expect discounting and therefore put off purchasing for the closing down sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Economic Depression is Inevitable / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Brian_Bloom
The simple analysis below demonstrates that – based on current behaviour of the Central Banks and monetary authorities – Economic Depression is inevitable.
In the article which can be accessed via the attached link, (http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2008Q4NP.pdf ) Hoisington states that “nominal GDP …. is equal to the stock of money multiplied by its turnover, or velocity.”
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Last Nail in the Coffin for the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The government has just released one of the most shocking federal budget reports of all time.
Even if you overlook the gaping holes in their economic assumptions, it's obvious the federal deficit is going to deliver a punch below the belt of the economy.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Obama Deficit Spending the Anti-Reagan / Volcker Revolution / Economics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
With over 2.5 million jobs lost in 2008 and G.D.P. estimates for Q4 projected to fall at a minus 6% annual rate, all hopes are now pinned on an Obama stimulus program that could exceed $1 trillion. Are investors hopes well-grounded in believing a government going further into debt can bring about a sustained economic recovery? I think not, and here's why: Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Stimulating The U.S. Economy All the Way to Rock Bottom / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
With attention turning to the next big economic stimulus package, questions are still swirling about our economic troubles. How did we get here? How do we get out? As usual, Washington has all the wrong answers. According to many politicians, we got here by not spending enough, not consuming enough, and not regulating enough. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Credit Crisis Bailouts Debt Fueled Money Printing Flood / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: How much is $1.186 trillion — or $1,186,000,000,000, written out the long way?
• It's more than the inflation-adjusted cost of the Vietnam ($698 billion) and Korean Wars ($454 billion).
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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Bernanke Banking System, Economy In Much Worse Shape Than Previously Admitted / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
At the Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, England, Bernanke Urges ‘Strong Measures' to Stabilize Banks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus won't be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
The Availability of Money / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Econgineers
How does it matter if money is cheap nowadays, if nobody has access to it? Money is simply not available.
Banks have stopped lending to individuals and corporations.
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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
U.S. Consumer Booms Inevitable Bust / Economics / US Economy
By: Oxbury_Research
A Nation Named Desire - Classic film buffs will be familiar with the 1951 film – A Streetcar Named Desire – which starred Marlon Brando and Vivian Leigh. My favorite scene in the film involves Blanche DuBois (Vivian Leigh) and Stanley Kowalski (Marlon Brando).
Blanche DuBois is a fallen woman – her family fortune and estate are gone. In an absolutely classic line, Blanche says to Stanley Kowalski - “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers”.
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Monday, January 12, 2009
Global Recession 2009, Investors What to Do Now / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Economically, 2009 has been handed some horrible numbers: It inherited the steepest contraction in manufacturing activity since 1980.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) factory index tumbled from 36.2 in November to just 32.4 in December, the lowest level since June of 1980. The all-time low for this data series, which began in 1948, was 29.4 in May 1980.
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