Category: Euro-Zone
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Darker Clouds over Europe / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation.Italy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to new data. France continues to be haunted by Yellow vests protests. Germany has entered an era of uncertainty. And Brexit overshadows the UK future.
In the absence of Trump’s tariffs, Europe could have benefited from a nascent recovery of world trade, investment and finance. But now even these hopes are diminishing.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Spanish Political Crisis - This is the End of the Euro / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Spanish government is about to fall after the Ciudadanos party decided to join PSOE (socialist) and Podemos in a non-confidence vote against PM Rajoy. Hmm, what would that mean for the Catalan politicians Rajoy is persecuting? The Spanish political crisis is inextricably linked to the Italian one, not even because they are so much alike, but because both combine to create huge financial uncertainty in the eurozone.
Friday, January 26, 2018
A Vision for the European Economic Future / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Enda_Glynn
Hi everyone,
I have seen the Future for the European Economy,
And it is not looking good.
The EU tracks a wide number of european wide economic indicators,
Everything from consumer credit,
to unemployment expectations in the future.
Thursday, September 14, 2017
The Only Real Europe is Greece / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, famous for his imbibition capacity and uttering -not necessarily in that order- the legendary words “when it becomes serious, you have to lie”, presented his State of the Union today. Which is of pretty much limited interest because, as Yanis Varoufakis’ book ‘Adults in the Room’ once again confirmed, Juncker is nothing but ventriloquist Angela Merkel’s sock puppet.
But of course he had lofty words galore, about how great Europe is doing, and how that provides a window for more Europe, in multiple dimensions. Juncker envisions a European Minister of Finance (Dutch PM Rutte immediately scorned the idea), and he wants to enlarge the EU by inviting more countries in, like Albania, Montenegro and Serbia (but not Turkey!).
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Monday, September 04, 2017
Varoufakis: The Book / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
About a month ago, I finished reading former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis’ book “Adults in the Room”, subtitled “My Battle With Europe’s Deep Establishment”, and published by The Bodley Head. I started writing about it right away, but noticed I was writing more about my personal ideas and experiences related to Greece than about the book. So I let it rest a bit.
I read the book in, of all places, Athens, sitting outside various old-style cafés. That got me a lot of reactions from Greeks seeing the cover of the book, most of them negative, somewhat to my surprise. Many Greeks apparently do not like Varoufakis. Of course I asked all the time why that is. “He’s arrogant” was/is a frequent one.
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Saturday, November 26, 2016
Italy: The Biggest Elephant Jeopardizing Europe and the Euro / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Jeff_Berwick
Not just the euro, but the entire European Union may be in jeopardy next week when the Italians vote on a constitutional referendum initiated by Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi.
What a Jubilee year it has been. First Brexit, then Trump and now it appears Italy is on the cusp of also escaping the grasp of the European Union.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Eurozone Economic Recovery is Over: Deflationary Pressures Intensify as Growth Slows / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
ECB president Mario Draghi has his work cut out for him as deflationary pressure in Europe intensify. Average prices charged by companies for their goods and services fell at the steepest rate for a year as firms competed to boost sales.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
After Paris Attacks The Eurozone Is Hanging By a Thread / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Jeff_Berwick
Ed Bugos writes: On September 13th, the exact end-date of the Shemitah and the beginning of what we said was going to be a crisis period that would erupt in the fall, we wrote, "Eurozone Collapses, Borders Erected Across Europe on Shemitah End Day ".
Many on the Internet said we were exaggerating or blowing a "temporary issue" out of proportion.
Yet, here were some of the headlines, just a day before the Paris Attacks (more on that below) on November 12th.
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Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Portugal Government Resignation Is Potentially A Very Big Deal / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Rubino
Portugal has entered a phase change, with potentially huge ramifications.
After handing a parliamentary majority to a coalition of leftist (i.e., anti-austerity, anti-euro, anti-NATO) parties, and then trying to prevent them forming a government, the country now looks likely to stand back and let it happen. Here’s an update from today’s Wall Street Journal:
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Monday, July 20, 2015
Was Greece Debt Crisis Always Part Of Eurozone Master Plan? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Rubino
Since its inception, critics of the eurozone have been pointing to its incomplete nature — everyone uses the same money but keeps their own national budgets and tax regimes — and speculating that this “fatal flaw” would doom the system. Other observers, however, gave the euro’s creators more (Machiavellian) credit and assumed the initial version was simply what was politically attainable at the time. Future leaders, they predicted, would wait for (or engineer) a crisis and then use it to bully their reluctant citizens into a centralized government.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
Greece’s Biggest Problem Is Its Anti-Capitalist Culture / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: MISES
Russell Lamberti writes: It’s considered politically incorrect to criticize culture these days, but whether using euros or drachmas, in or out of the European Union, Greece really has to, somehow, sort out its cultural dysfunction. I’m not talking about its customs, traditions, architecture or music, and I’m definitely not talking about its food. I’m talking about its cultural anti-capitalism. The negotiations, deals, counter-deals, referenda, protests and everything in between all mean very little if Greeks, by and large, don’t ditch their statist zeitgeist and rediscover Greek capitalistic exceptionalism.
Wednesday, July 01, 2015
Europe’s Controlled Demolition / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I have plenty to say on the topic of this essay. But the most important thing I think is that I know the EU is blowing up itself by trying to exert far too much influence on the very member nations that made its existence possible. Brussels is a blind city. To see it blowing itself to smithereens makes me very happy.
The flipside is that it will take a lot of pain, and probably even the very wars the EU was originally founded to prevent, to figuratively burn it to the ground. But that, if you’ll alow me, is for another day:
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Friday, June 26, 2015
Greece - The People Must Be Overthrown / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Perhaps I should apologize for writing about Greece all the time. Thing is, not only have I just arrived in Athens last night (and been duly showered in ouzo), but Greece is the proverbial early harbinger of everything that’s wrong with the world (not to worry, I know that’s a hyperbole), and of everything that could be done about it.
That places a responsibility on the shoulders of Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras and his team that maybe they don’t want, and for all I know don’t deserve either. But they’re all we have, and besides, they’re all their own people have. In that sense, this is not about everything that’s wrong with the world, other than that’s the same as everything that’s wrong with Greece.
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Thursday, June 25, 2015
Dumping the Euro Isn’t a Cure-All: Easy Money Lets Governments Avoid Free-Market Reforms / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The Greek drama continues to unfold with the risk of “grexit” becoming increasingly likely. Yet, a large majority of the Greek people want to keep the euro. This, however, would require the Greek government to live within its means — something it has not been able to do for decades. With anti-austerity parties gaining strength continent wide, Greece may be the first, but not the last, to leave.
Friday, May 15, 2015
Why Not Tell Greece How To Run A Democracy? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I know I’ve talked about this before, but it just keeps coming and it keeps being crzay.Bloomberg ‘reports’ that the ‘German Finance Ministry’, let me get this right, “is supporting the idea of a vote by Greek citizens to either accept the economic reforms being sought by creditors to receive a payout from the country’s bailout program or ultimately opt to leave the euro.” And that’s it.
Friday, April 24, 2015
Europe Migrant Crisis - For a Few Dollars More / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Tom_Naysburn
The migrant crisis in the Mediterranean is symptomatic of the wider malaise afflicting Europe, the new Wild West. As Sergio Leone put it " where life has no value, death, sometimes, had its price. That's why the bounty hunters appeared". Today, after the Euribor finally went negative, it seems quite plausible and legitimate to update the phase to "where Euros have little less value, death, sometimes, has its price, that's why the people traffickers appeared". When banks and governments are being paid to borrow Euros you have to ask the question: has this inverted perversion of classical economic theory hastened the beginning of the end for the Euro experiment?
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Thursday, April 23, 2015
The Existential Danger To The Euro Is Elections / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Amerman
There is a respectable chance that the euro will collapse sometime in the next several years, with implications for employment, economic growth and investment markets on a global basis. And the biggest threat is not directly money, debt, a potentially rapidly approaching Greek default, or a failure of central banking policies – but is instead something much simpler.
The risk is elections. That is, the near term existential threat to the euro – and indeed the global financial system – is when voters don't do what the status quo politicians, the media and bankers want them to do.
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Monday, February 16, 2015
Greece Isn’t Really The Problem - The Euro's Fatal Flaw... / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Rubino
The euro’s fatal flaw was always people. The fact that most eurozone countries are at least nominally democratic and keep having elections means that the more complicated and draconian the process of merging them into one entity ruled by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels becomes, the harder it is to elect people at the national level who want to keep going.
Greece is an obvious example, and will provide some thrills and chills as its debt negotiations lurch to the inevitable extend-and-pretend resolution. But much bigger things are brewing as the euro’s issues bite other constituencies in other ways.
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Wednesday, February 11, 2015
Euro Crisis - Now Watch Denmark / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: John_Rubino
One of the reasons we’ve all heard of George Soros is that back in 1992 he pulled off an epic financial coup by “breaking” the Bank of England. At the time the UK was trying to maintain a loose peg with the German Deutsche Mark, despite the fact that the two countries had very different rates of inflation (UK’s high, Germany’s low).
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Tuesday, February 10, 2015
The Swiss Franc and The Tragedy of the Euro / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Philipp_Bagus
Philipp Bagus, author of The Tragedy of the Euro recently spoke with the Mises Institute about recent developments in Switzerland and the European Monetary Union.
Mises Institute: In January, the Swiss central bank unpegged the franc from the euro. What does this mean for the future of the Swiss franc?
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Sunday, February 01, 2015
Greece vs Wall Street / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
On the one hand, I’ve written so much about Greece lately I fear I’m reaching overkill. On the other hand, there’s so much going on with Greece, and so fast, that I wouldn’t know here to begin. Moreover, I’m thinking and trying to figure what is what and what is actually happening so much it’s hard to stay focused for more than a short while before something else happens again and it all starts all over. And I’m thinking it must feel that way for the Syriza guys as well.
One thing I do increasingly ponder is that it gets ever harder to see the eurozone survive. In its present shape and form, that is. Damned if you do, doomed if you don’t, is an expression I’ve used before. It’s like this big experiment that a bunch of power hungry Europeans really get off on, that now all of a sudden is confronted with the democracy they all only thought existed in books of history anymore.
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Saturday, January 31, 2015
Mario Draghi to the Rescue? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Antonius Aquinas writes: As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) headed by former Goldman Sachs executive, Mario Draghi, announced a massive bond-buying program of more than one trillion Euros in the hope of improving a stagnate European economy and to combat “deflation.”
“What monetary policy can do,” Draghi declared, “is create the basis for growth.” The ECB President added that “structural reforms” by the various Euro member states need to accompany the monetary stimulus if it is to succeed: “But for growth to pick up you need investment; for investment, you need confidence; and for confidence, you need structural reform.”*
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Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Greek Vote Pushes EU to Limit / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: BATR
The resounding victory of Alexis Tsipras in the Greek election was certainly a referendum that rejected the austerity demands placed on Greece by the European Union. The Wall Street Journal says the following, in Syriza Win in Greek Election Sets Up New Europe Clash.
“A Syriza victory marks an astonishing upset of Europe’s political order, which decades ago settled into an orthodox centrism while many in Syriza describe themselves as Marxists. It emboldens the challenges of other radical parties, from the right-wing National Front in France to the newly formed left-wing Podemos party in Spain, and it sets Greece on a collision course with Germany and its other eurozone rescuers.”
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Tuesday, January 27, 2015
The New Drivers of Europe's Geopolitics / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: For the past two weeks, I have focused on the growing fragmentation of Europe. Two weeks ago, the murders in Paris prompted me to write about the fault line between Europe and the Islamic world. Last week, I wrote about the nationalism that is rising in individual European countries after the European Central Bank was forced to allow national banks to participate in quantitative easing so European nations wouldn't be forced to bear the debt of other nations. I am focusing on fragmentation partly because it is happening before our eyes, partly because Stratfor has been forecasting this for a long time and partly because my new book on the fragmentation of Europe — Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe — is being released today.
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Alexis-The-Greek Can save Europe from Friedman Chicago-Boy Fascism / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_Butter
The election of Alexis Tsipras is the best thing that happened to Greece in years. He is going to say “NO” to Milton Freidman “Shock” therapy, unless someone shoots him, which is a real possibility.What’s wrong with Europe is that they wholeheartedly embraced the Chicago-Boy theories most recently tested by Milton Friedman’s prodigy, Donald Goering Rumsfeld, in Iraq. What a mess, and what a mess Europe is in thanks those ideas.
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Thursday, January 01, 2015
Bluff of the Day: Germany Warns Greece on Euro Bailouts / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
In the obvious bluff of the day, Euro zone No Longer Obliged to Rescue Greece, Merkel Ally Says.
Actually, the eurozone was never obliged to rescue Greece, and in fact did not rescue Greece. Rather the EU and Troika rescued European banks holding Greek bonds.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Can The Euro Zone Match China’s Growth Rate in 2015? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Brett Chatz writes: The ECB is preparing to tackle stubbornly low inflation as the Euro Zone faces mounting challenges moving into 2015.When the European Central Bank met recently, Mario Draghi emphasised precisely how important it is for the ECB to keep inflation under control. However, the last time the ECB achieved its inflation target was over two years ago. Since then, inflation has been dropping at a steady pace and now stands at close to 0. To combat historically low inflation across the Eurozone, Draghi wants to take aggressive steps by way of a quantitative easing policy. The measures likely to be taken by the European Central Bank will not be dissimilar to the QE policies adopted by the Fed in the US. These will include wide-ranging bond purchases to increase the money supply to accelerate economic growth.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
How to Profit from Europe's Secret Economic "Plan B" / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: As the European Union debates yet a third bailout for Greece, revelations about secret plans by some Eurozone members tell an even more intriguing story.
During the depths of the European sovereign crisis, when Greece was inches from exiting the zone, others chose to not sit idly by.
Instead, two member nations were surreptitiously preparing for a possible Eurozone breakup.
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Monday, December 08, 2014
Euroland on the Brink of Reason / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Tom Naysburn writes: Lets be under no illusions, Quantitative Easing QE is monetisation of sovereign government deficits, lets be even clearer, QE is government printing potentially limitless amounts of paper money to pay for its own hubris, incompetence and overspending. History tells us it always starts small and controllable but quickly as the drug takes hold, diversions and side shows are created to allow its continued consumption, welcome to our brave new world where everything you thought was untrue or impossible is now possible and very real. Maybe QE is the government and bankers financial Soma.
At this fork in the road, one path requires the Euro to face its problems, either form a fiscal union or disband the currency, the second path is potholed with denial, QE and the inevitable destructive forces it unleashes.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Does Europe Have Demand Deficiency Syndrome? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Frank_Shostak
In his Financial Times article “The curse of weak global demand,” Martin Wolf writes that today’s most important economic illness is chronic demand deficiency syndrome. Wolf argues that despite massive monetary pumping by the central banks of the US and the EMU, and the policy of lowering interest rates to around zero, both the US and the EMU, economies have continued to struggle.
Sunday, November 09, 2014
The Broken Model Of The Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
I stumbled upon these few words in an Ambrose Evans Pritchard article the other day, and they hit me almost like some sort of epiphany, which in turn made me feel a little stupid, because it’s all so obvious. What Ambrose wrote (and this time I’m not making fun of him), was about the eurozone (EMU), of which he said:
Read full article... Read full article...The North is competitive. The South is 20% overvalued.
Friday, November 07, 2014
The Madness of the EU’s Energy Policy / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Marin_Katusa
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Vladimir Putin has launched a devastating plan to turn Russia into an energy powerhouse. And Europe, dependent on Russian natural gas and oil for a third of its fuel needs, has fallen right into his hands: Putin can bend the EU to his will simply by twisting the valve shut.
Considering how precarious Europe’s economic security is, one would have thought that now would be a good time for the EU to reassess its energy policy and address the effect crippling energy costs are having on its struggling economy.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2014
The Death Rattle of Europe’s Statist Dream / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Rick_Ackerman
Europe’s all-too-predictable relapse into recession is gathering force, threatening not only the pipe dream of economic and political unity, but eroding grandiose illusions that have helped prop up the world’s financial house of cards. The unwillingness of France in particular to play by the EU’s — i.e., Germany’s — rules appears to have doomed the EU dream. The idea of a borderless Europe bound by a common currency and a shared desire to forever banish war from the Continent was a lofty one, but it was mired from the start in deeply rooted political animosities, grass-roots skepticism and bureaucratic overreach. Now these problems, along with a great many others, have turned the EU project into a Tower of Babel. A million pages of meticulously codified EU rules might as well have been written in cuneiform, so inscrutable and arcane have they become.
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Saturday, October 18, 2014
Europe’s Fatal Flaw Laid Bare For All To See. Again / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Da markets today sort of refound their – shaky – feet, oil up a dollar, EU exchanges up 3% or so, Greece even over 7%, while interestingly gold didn’t move much at all during the wild week (no safe haven), and most movement was perhaps, through all the see-saw, in bonds. To sum up the week: panic followed by plunge protection teams. And now the ‘leaders’ hope plunge protection will save another day too.
And they may. Germany sinks a bit, but Germany is strong. US housing is at least not falling further, but US consumer spending stalls and drops. The deep dark weakness has not yet hit the big economies. But the nerves are back. Volatility is back with a vengeance. As it should. And that will paint the picture going forward, plunge protection or not. Da markets will come again and again and dare central banks to plunge protect.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Europe’s Economic Austerity, You Must Be Kidding / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The leading political lights in Europe -- Messrs. Hollande, Valls and Macron in France and Mr. Renzi in Italy -- are raising a big stink about fiscal austerity. They don't like it. And now Greece has jumped on the anti-austerity bandwagon. The pols have plenty of company, too. Yes, they can trot out a host of economists -- from Nobelist Krugman on down -- to carry their water.
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Thursday, October 02, 2014
Lagarde Admits Europe Facing Serious Crisis on the Horizon / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bloomberg
In an interview with Bloomberg's Tom Keene at the International Monetary Fund's Headquarters in Washington D.C., IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the world still faces serious clouds on the horizon., "We are facing serious clouds on the horizon; we have a lot of uncertainty...we are revising potential growth." Lagarde also said:
Thursday, October 02, 2014
Europe Is Crumbling Into Economic Collapse / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For me, the quote of the day is this one: “If there’s a periphery of the eurozone’s periphery, that’s Naples.”. The city of Napoli hosts ECB boss Mario Draghi and the heads of Europe’s central banks this week in some very posh former Bourbon family royal palace, and the contradictions involved couldn’t be more striking.
Napoli is home to an immense amount of poverty and misery, and the advent of the EU and the euro has done absolutely nothing to make life in the city any better. Quite the contrary. And there’s not a single thing in sight that holds any promise of alleviating the deepening Italian downfall. Therefore things can, and will, only get worse from here.
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Sunday, September 28, 2014
Europe is the Sick Man of Europe, Blame the Socialists, Greens and Euro / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Joel Kotkin writing for New Geography hits the nail smack on the head with his assessment Sick Man of Europe is Europe.
Read full article... Read full article...Throughout the continent, public support for a united Europe fell sharply last year. Opposition to greater integration has emerged, with anti-EU parties gaining support in countries as diverse as the United Kingdom, Greece, Germany and France.
Monday, September 01, 2014
Eurozone Currency Dispute Intensifies: France Wants Weaker Euro Higher Inflation / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The currency and fiscal battleground front lines in Europe remains the same. France wants QE, fiscal stimulus, and more leeway on meeting fiscal deficit targets. Germany doesn't. And the fighting has strengthened.
The idea that ECB can produce nirvana by devaluing the euro is ridiculous. Yet, that's the battle cry of the day.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Europe’s Depressing Economy Dog Days of Summer / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
As we entered the dog days of summer, a flurry of negative economic news surfaced. The news from Continental Europe was worse than anticipated, catching most observers by surprise. Those who were caught off guard failed to keep their eyes focused on money and credit. In addition, they neglected to gauge geopolitical events and the state of economic confidence. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Europe's Economic Malaise: The New Normal? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
George Friedman writes: Russia and Ukraine continue to confront each other along their border. Iraq has splintered, leading to unabated internal warfare. And the situation in Gaza remains dire. These events should be enough to constitute the sum total of our global crises, but they're not. On top of everything, the German economy contracted by 0.2 percent last quarter. Though many will dismiss this contraction outright, the fact that the world's fourth-largest economy (and Europe's largest) has shrunk, even by this small amount, is a matter of global significance.
Friday, August 01, 2014
The EU's Anti Economic Austerity Hypocrites / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The European Union (EU) is still in the midst of an economic slump. Many members of the political class in Brussels claim that fiscal austerity is to blame. But, this diagnosis is wrong. The EU's problem is one of monetary, not fiscal, austerity. Money matters. Just look at the accompanying chart. Private credit in the Eurozone has been shrinking since March 2012.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Game of Thrones, European-Style / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I came back from Italy this week, and one of my guilty pleasures was being able to sit down and watch the last three episodes, including the season finale, of Game of Thrones. For those readers who are not enthralled with the fantasy epic from HBO or have not read the first five books (will he ever finish?), author George R.R. Martin has written one of the most complex fantasy series ever, about a world where everyone is occupied with who will sit on the Iron Throne.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
EU Goes From Peacemaker To War Mongerer / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Jean-Claude Juncker, a former Luxembourg PM, claims that his EU-wide center right faction, the European People’s Party, “won” last month’s European Parliament elections, but something is not what it seems. They’re the largest faction, that’s true enough, but they had to concede 44 of their seats. In other words, while they claim a win, in reality it was a big loss. Which, in democratic systems, represents a call for modesty. Juncker will have none of that. He demands the leadership chair of the European Commission.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Euro-zone Blaming Deflation / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Alasdair_Macleod
With the Eurozone going to the extreme of negative interest rates and the IMF belatedly revising downwards their expectations of US economic growth, deflation is now the favoured buzzword. It is time to untangle myth from reality and put deflation in context.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Euro-zone Bond Market Madness as Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield Lowest Since at Least 1789 / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Those searching for absurdity in government bonds can find it in a multitude of places.
For example, and via translation from Libre Mercado (courtesy of my friend Bran who lives in Spain) please note Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield is Lowest Since at Least 1789.
Friday, June 06, 2014
Europe Resorting to Voodoo Economics to Avoid Becoming Japan / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: It’s a mixed-up crazy world, especially when it comes to figuring out economics.
Just look at European stock markets. Many of them are making new highs today.
Why is that crazy?
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Wednesday, June 04, 2014
ECB Euro-zone Stimulus / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Everyone expects Mario Draghi’s ECB to announce stimulus measures on Thursday. If the forward guidance, if we can call it that, which was ‘leaked’ by Draghi and his minions is accurate, we’ll see the bank’s main refinancing rate lowered, and the deposit rate perhaps even turned negative, with a less obvious set of measures that may include asset purchases also in the offing. The main goal must be to drive down the euro, which is still way too expensive from the point of view of exports and which therefore holds back ‘recovery’ in the eyes of policy makers, pundits and economists. But it would have to be driving down the euro without driving down stock markets at the same time.
Monday, April 28, 2014
European Bond Market Sentiment Gauge in Reaches Epic Proportion / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: EWI
A visual history of complacency and fear as seen by the 10-year spread over German Bunds
The one-two punch 2014 winter storms that battered the southeastern United States left $13.5 million in damages in Georgia alone and thousands of residents displaced due to burst pipes and power outages. I am one of the displaced. Three months after the flood, I'm still living out of suitcases in a hotel while my apartment gets rebuilt.
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Thursday, April 10, 2014
Europeans Ordered to Start Consuming / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Rubino
For the past couple of years the European Central Bank has been the only sane inmate in the asylum. Unfortunately, in a crazy world being sane just gets you into trouble. Sound monetary policy leads to a strong currency, which in a currency war is tantamount to unilateral disarmament. Unable to export sufficiently to a world of weak currencies, the eurozone is tipping into deflationary depression (with several members already there and unable to get out). So…
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Euro-zone Bazooka - Whatever It Takes 2.0? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
If you are convincingly irrational the market may expect extreme measures and front run your bluff. It’s in this spirit that ECB President Draghi is threatening the market with another bazooka. We discuss implications for investors.
Friday, March 07, 2014
Crimea Crisis - Euro-zone Economy Hide and Seek / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Crimea just declared itself part of Russia. Well, its government did. What the status is of that government is unclear, but then that’s also true for the Ukrainian government, which the west is all too eager to declare the one and only. Perhaps the first thing to do for the US and EU is to sit down with Russia and agree on the legal standing of the Kiev government, since without any such agreement no progress can be achieved. They’d have to do that without “Yats” present, because Russia doesn’t recognize him as a talking partner. Putin can promise to leave Yanukovych home if the US does the same with “Yats”.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Portugal Europe’s Economic Comeback Kid? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I had just returned to my hotel room in Innsbruck, Austria, when my wife called. Before I could tell her about the beautiful scenery and amazing experiences I was having on The Oxford Club’s European Opportunity Expedition, she stopped me.
I needed to hop a flight to Portugal immediately, she said. My father – who also happened to be in Europe, though not part of our tour – was having emergency (though, fortunately, routine) surgery in Lisbon.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Eurozone: A Story of Stability in 2013, But Aggressive Action Awaits / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Ronan Keenan writes: It all started in October 2009 when George Papandreou’s new Greek government revealed a black hole in their accounts that was vastly underestimated by the previous administration. Several years of tumult followed, bringing the eurozone project to the brink of failure. But 2013 proved to be a lucky year for the 17-nation group. Relatively few economic surprises and heightened attention on events elsewhere brought a welcome calm to European financial markets.
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Sunday, November 24, 2013
Euro-zone Bashing Germany For Successful Economy, Game of Thrones – European Style / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
In 2009-10 it seemed like this letter was all Europe all the time. There was a never-ending crisis from one corner of the Continent to the other. That time seems to have slowly faded from our collective consciousness, but the Eurozone crisis is not over, and it will not end quickly or soon. Even if it seems to unfold in slow motion – like the slow build-up in a Game of Thrones storyline to violent internecine clashes followed by more slow plot developments but never any real resolution, the Eurozone debacle has never really gone away. The structural imbalances have still not been fixed; politicians and central bankers have still not agreed to solve major fiscal problems; the overall economy still disintegrates; unemployment is staggeringly high in some countries and still rising; and the people are growing restless.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Germany’s Dangerous Current Account Surplus / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: MISES
Frank Hollenbeck writes: The US government and the European Commission (EC) recently slammed Germany for running large current account surpluses. Paul Krugman jumped in with this beauty of a quote:
Read full article... Read full article...The problem is that Germany has continued to maintain highly competitive labor costs and run huge surpluses since the bubble burst — and that in a depressed world economy, this makes Germany a significant part of the problem.
Monday, November 18, 2013
Perfect Storm Brewing for Ireland’s Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Caoimhghin Ó Croidheáin writes: “We are now mainly borrowing to pay interest on the burgeoning national debt”[1]
While much has been made recently of Ireland’s exit from the punishing EU/IMF bailout programme, Michael Noonan, the Finance Minister, has welcomed post-bailout ‘surveillance’. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said Ireland would be subjected to ‘intensive surveillance’ “twice a year, but this would involve monitoring as supposed to new measures being imposed” because “under new European budgetary rules, countries leaving a bailout will be subject to extra attention until at least 75pc of the money owed is repaid.”[2]
Monday, November 18, 2013
Europe’s Bank Money Blues, Academics Declare War on Germany / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Well, it’s official, the economic talking head establishment has declared war on Germany. The opening shots in this battle were fired by none other than the United States Treasury Department, which had the audacity to blame Germany for a weak Eurozone recovery in its semi-annual foreign exchange report. The Treasury’s criticisms were echoed by IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, in a recent speech in Berlin — a speech so incendiary that the IMF opted to post the “original draft,” rather than his actual comments, on its website. Things were kicked into a full blitzkrieg when Paul Krugman penned his latest German-bashing New York Times column.
Thursday, November 07, 2013
ECB's Tough Balancing Act, Bubbles vs Deflation / Stock-Markets / Euro-Zone
By: Gary_Dorsch
Today, a small group of central bank chiefs can meet in private and wield unprecedented power over global markets, economies, and wealth distribution. They are held accountable to the ruling politicians that in most cases have no respect for the principle of sound money. Instead, in Europe, the UK, Japan, the US, and elsewhere, central bankers have become intricately linked to monetizing government debts, and financing the expansion of the welfare state. As such, disciplined and independent central banking, a cornerstone to any hope for sound money and credit, has been relegated to the dustbin of history.
Friday, November 01, 2013
Europe's What-Else-Is-New Crisis Agenda / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
ECONOMIC SABOTAGE
Whenever Europe's politicians get bored with the perpetual-crisis agenda, they invent new crises. Recent add-ons feature NSA hacking of Angela Merkel's cellphone, proving she has interesting things to talk about. Why Europe is even further from economic recovery than the USA – in fact a long way – was hopefully one interesting thing she talked about with uninvited American listeners.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Why Economic Turnaround in the Eurozone Won’t Happen - U.S. Companies Beware / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Profit_Confidential
Michael Lombardi writes: On Sunday, we saw the results of the election in Germany, the powerhouse of the eurozone. Angela Merkel won again. Her re-election sent a wave of optimism through Europe. I can just hear the chants declaring “the worst is over for the eurozone” starting up again.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Lagarde 'crossing fingers' for the Euro Zone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Bloomberg
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde spoke with Bloomberg Television's Sara Eisen in Jackson Hole, WY today, where she said, "we are all globally on a path to recovery, still fragile, not yet strong enough, and with this very strong support from the unconventional monetary policy."
Lagarde said that "clarity of when things will happen, how things will happen" is needed as the Fed considers unwinding its bond buying program and "the signaling effect matters almost more than the actual implementation."
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 06, 2013
Draghi's Guidance Light is Non-farm Payrolls Train at End of Tunnel / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ashraf_Laidi
US June non-farm payrolls rose by 195K, surpassing forerecasts of 165K, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 7.6%. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find 12 consecutive monthly readings of +100K NFP. Not only non-farm payrolls have shown 3 consecutive monthly net additions of greater than 190K, but 12 consecutive monthly readings above 100K, the last time this was seen was in May 1999-May 2000.
Friday, July 05, 2013
Central Banks Seal Europe's Economic Suicide Pact / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
RISK OFF FOR THE MARKETS
Through a probably linked and coordinated decision, the two former Goldman insiders – the ECB's Mario Draghi and the BOE's Mark Carney – acted to further destroy the need or desire for personal savers to have savings at all, by holding interest rates at extreme lows. And they went further.
Also probably coordinated, both the ex-Goldman insiders now running European central banking took an “unprecedented step”. They both promised – or threatened – further rate cuts.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 13, 2013
Europe's Fragile Competition Quest, From QE To Bangladeshi Pay / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
Any leading politician in Europe, today, has a "competitivity" speech ready at the touch of the Talk button. Europe's CNN-lookalike business TV channels have almost daily "great debates" on how to make Europe competitive. Against what and who? More than 65% of trade for most countries in Europe is with other European countries - the EU is a free trade area and customs union. Many observers say that is the only good thing European union ever brought about.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
The Lesson From Cyprus: Europe Is Politically Bankrupt / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Over the past week, Europe, or rather the present EU leadership, has done damage to itself it will never be able to repair.
It seems to escape everbody, but that doesn't make it any less true: people from Portugal to Spain to Italy to Greece to Cyprus and Ireland are worse off today than they were when they first adopted the euro. Moreover, their economies are all getting worse as we speak and projected to plunge further. The once highly touted blessings of the common currency are by now lost on most of southern Europe; for them, the euro has been a shortcut to disaster.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Vampire Squid Reform And The Demise Of The Technocrats / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
VAMPIRE SQUID TO DAMP SQUIB
When Mario Monti resigned in December 2012 saying he "would not seek a second term" as Italy's prime minister the technocratic, reform-minded, former Goldman Sachs adviser was of course lying. He stood for election - after his first and only unelected stint as prime minister - and lost. Goldman Sachs, nicknamed "The Vampire Squid" along Wall Street, lost another key pawn in its Eurozone power play.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
The Italian Election Farce and Not So Super Mario / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
SUPER MARIO BOMBS
As of February 25, exit polls and analysts' reviews of voter trends showed a total collapse in support for Mario Monti, called "Super Mario" for a while by government-friendly media. The 'technocrat' parachuted in by Europe's elite to apply a classic austerity programme as Italy's Brussels-approved unelected Prime Minister from late 2011, scored around 7% to 9% of votes cast. He is finished.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Split Italian Elections Votes is "Worst-Case" Result for Eurozone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes: If preliminary results prove accurate, the Italian elections will result in a "hung" parliament, meaning no party will have enough seats to form a government.
The lack of a definitive result could temporarily paralyze the Eurozone's third-largest economy and revive fears that Italian voters will ultimately reject austerity and the euro itself.
Monday, February 25, 2013
New Economic Data Reveals More Bad News for the Eurozone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest detriments to global economic growth has been the weak eurozone region. Not only has economic growth been dismal within the eurozone area, but the level of financial instability over the past few years has left investors and businesses uncertain about the future.
While there was some indication that economic growth might have been rebounding within the eurozone, new data point to a much weaker underlying economy than previously thought.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Euro-zone Rebalancing the Wrong Way as German Trade Surplus Hits Five-Year High / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Looking for evidence of rebalancing in Europe? Don't look here: German 2012 trade surplus soars despite weak December reports
Read full article... Read full article...Germany's trade surplus was the second highest in more than 60 years in 2012, pointing to an underlying resilience in Europe's largest economy, although both imports and exports disappointed in the last month of the year.
Exports rose just 0.3 percent in December from November, compared with a forecast rise of 1.3 percent, and imports fell 1.3 percent against expectations for a rise of 1.4 percent .
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Illusions of Euro-zone Economic Stabilization / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Germany Rebounds but ... I noted a recovery "of sorts" in Germany, a contraction in France at the steepest rate in four years, and a record decrease in services employment in Italy.
Thus, it should be no surprise to see the Markit Eurozone Composite PMI® shows national divergence hits record high.
Yet, in aggregate, the eurozone contraction decelerated with the eurozone composite PMI rising from 47.2 to 48.6.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Price for Eurozone Collapse is Too High / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
The Eurozone will not fall apart, because the price of getting out of the game is too high for each country. When, in early September, it was announced that the ECB would buy government bonds in unlimited quantities, the bridges behind the Euro area countries have collapsed. There is no way back, and this means that one can only move forward and fight for their own happiness.
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Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Why The Nobel Peace Prize For The EU Is Flawed / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Raul_I_Meijer
While everybody was asleep in a grandiose globalization and unification dream, a dream whose benefits and desirability were - and still are - hardly ever questioned if at all, separate languages and cultures simply remained what they were: separate. Now that globalization starts to show its dark and ugly flipside of economic depression, a repeal of many unifications and a split-up of larger entities, created for economic and political reasons only, into their smaller components, is inevitable.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2012
EU Banking Union: even the timing, 9/11, Spells Disaster / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: ECB_Watch
Even the timing of the Banking Union spells disaster. Proposal to be announced 9/11, says WSJ (Source). Discussed in this post, the ECB taking responsibility for banking supervision.
Cast: Sharon Bowles (EU Parl), Mario Draghi (ECB), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel)
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Threat of "European Monster State" About to Splinter Merkel Coalition / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Winning the Summit but Losing the War
German chancellor Angela Merkel was the EU Summit Winner. She gave next to nothing to Italy and France, and a pittance to Spain.
However, there was a price to that pittance, and it could cost Merkel dearly. Please consider German Party Leader Threatens To Axe Coalition
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Italy and Spain: Hard to Ignore Economic Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Asha_Bangalore
The euphoria of the EU summit of June 28-29 is fading as markets comprehend that the eurozone has only bought time but not addressed the fundamental fact that economic growth is necessary to secure the future of the eurozone. In other words, economic facts are hard to ignore. First, outstanding Italian sovereign debt is in the neighborhood of €1.8 trillion and that of Spanish sovereign debt is approaching €600 billion. Therefore, the firepower of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) of €500 billion is inadequate, even if the differing maturities of these securities are taken into consideration, in the current economic environment.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
The United States of Europe has Arrived! / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
A fiscal union, a banking union, a United States of Europe has arrived! Don’t believe it? Just like many newborns, this one has its shares of wrinkles, but what you see is what you get. We discuss a tough love approach to move forward in Europe, as well as implications for currencies.
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Italy Gasping for Economic Breath Like a Beached Whale / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Berlusconi Reiterates Euro Exit "Not Blasphemy"; Beppe Grillo Discusses "Taboo of the Euro"
On June 1, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said "Italy should dump the euro unless the European Central Bank agreed to inject more cash into the economy". One day later Berlusconi said the idea Italy should dump euro was a "joke".
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Friday, June 15, 2012
Overview of Greek Elections / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Simit_Patel
Greece is holding elections this weekend, and the results of these elections could determine how Greece relates to the European Union. This in turn could significantly impact the Euro, which in turn will impact everything else, which means it's potentially a big deal.
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Wednesday, June 06, 2012
George Soros Warns European Union is Going Down in 3 Months / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Gary_North
George Soros has laid it on the line. The eurozone will begin to break up, followed by the break-up of the European Union, within three months if the politicians do not come to an agreement to re-write the treaties and centralize power. No other figure has been this apocalyptic and this specific as to the timetable.
He sees this outcome as a catastrophe. I keep thinking: "Free at last! Free at last!"
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
Is Greece European? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
Greece is where the West both begins and ends. The West -- as a humanist ideal -- began in ancient Athens where compassion for the individual began to replace the crushing brutality of the nearby civilizations of Egypt and Mesopotamia. The war that Herodotus chronicles between Greece and Persia in the 5th century B.C. established a contrast between West and East that has persisted for millennia. Greece is Christian, but it is also Eastern Orthodox, as spiritually close to Russia as it is to the West, and geographically equidistant between Brussels and Moscow. Greece may have invented the West with the democratic innovations of the Age of Pericles, but for more than a thousand years it was a child of Byzantine and Turkish despotism. And while Greece was the northwestern bastion of the anciently civilized Near East, ever since history moved north into colder climates following the collapse of Rome, the inhabitants of Peninsular Greece have found themselves at the poor, southeastern extremity of Europe.
Friday, May 25, 2012
The European Union (EU) the New Soviet Union (NSU) / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
In an essay penned in June 2011 Bernard Connolly the author of "The Rotten Heart of Europe" explained how the European Union was actively morphing into the New Soviet Union. He outlined how democracy
was being destroyed and replaced by bureaucratic command. I have to congratulate Mr. Connolly for his
courage in expressing views which endanger his financial career but unfortunately many are coming to
comprehend that his analysis is the truth if only because it places a rational paradigm on disparate activity
that is actually happening to people in their daily lives. Below I list ten examples to support this thesis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Europe and Eurozone Economy Q1 2012 GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: Because in our fiat currency world continuing GDP growth is of huge importance.
Featured Article: An article earlier this week reported GDP growth for both the 17 country Eurozone and the 27 country European Union was 0.0% in Q1 2012. The European Union includes the 17 Eurozone countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Global Implications Of French Presidential Election / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Amerman
Forget the anemic latest US jobs report - the world is in play, and the election of Francois Hollande as the President of France may do more to determine US unemployment rates (and global investment results) in the next year than anything that Ben Bernanke and US government policies will accomplish.
There is a near-term risk that a process has been set in motion that could plunge the entire globe into currency chaos and economic depression within the next year, with the failure to form a government in Greece acting as only one of a number of possible triggers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Germany Faces Political Isolation / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
One month ago it appeared that Germany held the whip hand in its titanic struggle against those seeking to cure all economic ills with the snake oil of currency debasement. Now, it appears that the ground beneath its feet is being swept away in a flood of popular unrest and political exploitation. The recent elections in Europe, which highlight both the strong grass roots revolt against Germanic demands in Greece and France show that the cause of sound money and fiscal prudence to be a lonely and difficult endeavor.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Sarkozy's Engame Economics / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
Although he drank Diet Coke rather than fine wines, preferred chocolate bars to ripe and smelly French cheeses and in front of the Pope was so squeaky cool, modern and arrogant that he checked for messages on his Blackberry (if he really knew how to use a Blackberry), French voters plucked up enough courage to evict the brash, egotistical and hyperactive President Bling-Bling, the so-called Hyper President from the Elysee Palace. After just one term in office this was courageous - the last time it happened was in 1981- but Sarkozy was out. He was finished along with his less-than-respected Italian supermodel spouse, so proud of having been a live-in sex toy of Mick Jagger (or possibly Keith Richards). Whatever her horizontal claims to fame, she was a lousy singer.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
France's Struggle For European Dominance / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
New political leaders do not invent new national strategies. Rather, they adapt enduring national strategies to the moment. On Tuesday, Francois Hollande will be inaugurated as France's president, and soon after taking the oath of office, he will visit German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. At this moment, the talks are expected to be about austerity and the European Union, but the underlying issue remains constant: France's struggle for a dominant role in European affairs at a time of German ascendance.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Germany's Mixed Euro Policy Signals / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
Last week's media headlines focused on how the election results in France and Greece reflected a wave of rising public resistance across Europe to the austerity programs being championed by Germany, the IMF, and the EU. Less notice has been given to Germany's internal revolt against Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative policies at home and abroad. Elections in the north German state of Schleswig-Holstein just ended the dominance there of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDP/CDU) while emboldening the center-left Social Democrats (SDP), hard-left Greens, and libertarian Free Democrats (FDP). Those results are expected to be repeated at this Sunday's ballot in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state.
Friday, May 11, 2012
European Elections Subtext / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Fred_Sheehan
Various interpretations of recent European elections have been put forward, one of which gets short shrift. The voters have, for the first time, been given the opportunity to approve or disapprove of the euro. They are voting nein. There is a parallel in the United States.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Francois Hollande's Freedom Fries / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
Jumping the Atlantic, the shockwaves from Europe's rapidly changing political landscape are starting to wash up on American shores. French fries could or might go off the menu and revert to Freedom Fries - time will tell.
Already Hollande is on record for a total withdrawal of all French combat troops from Afghanistan by December 31st, is raising taxes on the rich, handing out more government cash to low income families and recruiting sixty thousand more teachers. He wants growth, and to him and most others that means Keynesian style priming the pump - with tax cuts for companies that recruit, and more cash for the poor using cash that doesn't exist. It has to be borrowed, but talking around that reality is called politics.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2012
European Politics: France Changes Trains / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
Hollande's victory in France, like the major voter gains for the extreme-left Syriza party in Greek elections, and constant erosion of Merkel's two supporting parties in German elections, all held the same weekend, confirm the emerging and massive left - right split in European politics.
Sunday, May 06, 2012
The French Elections: Flirting With The Abyss / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
May 6 is Maybe not 5 years more for Sarkozy, but for France and Europe, and even for the world this election process and sequence has been and will continue to be a dangerous flirt with the abyss. Whether political, social, cultural, economic or otherwise, the election process which has dragged on for months has never ceased throwing red flags and danger signals, all of them ignored and snowed under by the rush to talk and not do, letting the glacier-like advance continue. Until the abyss is reached, everything seems fine; after it nothing is fine.
Saturday, May 05, 2012
The Euro End's on 6th of May 2012 / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Dr_Volkmar_G_Hable
Few Americans will have noticed that this Sunday the end of the Euro will take place. On that day the final run-off ballot between current French president Mr. Sarkozy and socialist presidential candidate Mr. Hollande will decide over the future of the Euro.
Friday, May 04, 2012
The Fate of the Eurozone Hangs on Sunday's French Elections / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
It now looks as though Nicolas Sarkozy's days are numbered. In the balance lies the fate of the Eurozone itself.
It appears Socialist Francois Hollande will win the French election runoff on Sunday and that June's legislative elections will give the Socialists a powerful position in France's parliament.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 23, 2012
Dutch Government on Verge of Collapse After Economic Austerity Torpedoed / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
... Caretaker Government and New Elections Coming Up
The Netherlands has been one of the staunchest proponents of forced austerity on Greece. However, now that Brussels has demanded the Netherlands hit its fiscal targets, Dutch politicians can't get the task done and the government is poised to collapse. New elections are coming up.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 26, 2011
Crush Labor and Impose Economic Austerity, Draghi’s ECB Real Goal in the Eurozone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Imagine if your banker offered to lend you a $150,000 to make up for the money that you’d lost on your home since the housing bubble burst in 2006. And, let’s say, he agreed to lend you this money for 3 years at rock-bottom rates of 1 percent provided that you post the contents of your garage (ie. rusty bikes, a bent basketball hoop, an old dollhouse, and rodent-infested luggage) as collateral on the loan.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Euro Crisis: David Cameron, Britain’s Financial Arsonist Returns to the Scene of the Crime / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Finian_Cunningham
The incendiary finance capitalism unleashed by Britain 25 years ago is at the heart of Europe’s raging debt woes
You either have to admire British Prime Minister David Cameron’s brass neck, or wince at his arrogant stupidity. The smart money is probably on the latter option.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Those "New" E.U. Fiscal Rules Aren't So New / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Very soon we will see if the old market adage "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is true.
While rumors of Europe's impending demise were momentarily shot down by an array of silver bullets, the actual news out of Brussels of a grand bargain wasn't... exactly... honest.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Europe's Ride To Hell In A Handcart / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_McKillop
In a recent article 'Smokescreen Europe' I underlined one of the scariest, most laughable new realities of the European ride to oblivion. Nothing comes out of the endless ballet of special crisis summits where heads of state predictably pose and preen. The crisis deepens.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Sorting Out the Euro-zone Mess / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I had the pleasure of spending the morning and part of the afternoon today with Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky at a seminar here in Dallas; and we shared a long lunch, where Europe and China were the topics of conversation. So, with their permission, here is their latest "Five Corners," in which Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky discuss last week's summit, and then engage in an internal debate about whether Italy really has a significant trade deficit with Germany. As I expect from GaveKal, it's not your typical analysis. And since I have to run to dinner – and glean more insights from their team (there will be homework when I get back!), this introduction to Outside the Box is short, and we can jump right into today's piece. Have a great week.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Euro-zone Doomed to Fail, Wrecking Europe's Monetary System to Fix It / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Stephen_Lendman
From its inception, the Eurozone monetary union was an idea doomed to fail. Nonetheless, it was engineered fraudulently to look workable.
In 1979, Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) was introduced as part of the European Monetary System (EMS) to propel the continent to one European currency unit (ECU).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Germany Is Saying that Europe Needs a Dad / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. Was it something we will look back on in ten years and say, "This was where it all started," or will it be viewed as just another meeting in what will prove to be a string of even more meetings? I will argue that both views are the correct answer, depending on your frame of reference.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
David Cameron Falls into Sarkozy's Trap, Germany Sulks as France Gloats / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday, various news agencies reported that Hungary opted out of the treaty while Sweden and Czech Republic remained "undecided". However, the latest spin is that Hungary did not opt out yet and the gang of 26 will forge ahead without the UK.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
European Union Summit Leaves Important Questions Unanswered, IMF to the Rescue? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Asha_Bangalore
Of the 27 nations that make up the European Union (EU), 23 agreed to be part of a new fiscal union, while the remaining four did not participate in the deal. Sweden, Hungary, and the Czech Republic want time to consult with their parliaments before signing to join the new union. Britain opted out because there were no guarantees that EU regulators would not be able over-rule financial regulators of the UK.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 09, 2011
The Rotten Heart of Europe / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Fred_Sheehan
To Americans, European problems may seem as remote as they did in 1939. There is a good chance, though, that the crumbling financial structure will not be "contained" or "ring-fenced": the latter being the common description of how Europe had isolated itself from Italy's difficulties. That lasted a week or so. We may soon discover the extent of American exposure to European financial insolvency.
Tuesday, December 06, 2011
Eurozone Debt Crisis, The Euro Debate Gets Philosophical / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
Europe is rapidly approaching the denouement, the Endgame, of its currency experiment. The outcome is not clear, at least to your humble analyst, as the debates rage and there are huge pluses and minuses the 17 nations must decide upon. But the proverbial road down which the can is tumbling and clattering, kicked along haphazardly, is coming to its end, and soon a rather sharp turn, either to the left or to the right, will be required. Let us hope they choose wisely.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Goldman Sachs Trojan Horse Digs into Euro-zone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
The German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chaired by Angela Merkel urged to introduce changed in the Lisbon Treaty and other European agreements stipulating an opportunity for European countries to pull out from the eurozone. The countries would preserve their EU membership in such a move.
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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Can the Underground Economy Save Europe? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: David_Howden
As the old saying goes, the more expensive you are to fire, the more expensive you are to hire. Nowhere is this more apparent than on the European continent.
Even with the United States' lengthening of unemployment insurance benefits at the wake of this crisis, the benefits for the standard down-on-his-luck American pale in comparison to those of the average European. Upon job separation the average Frenchman can expect to see more than half of his salary extended in the form of unemployment benefits. Many European workers see these benefits extended for two to three years after their termination, with some countries extending benefits indefinitely.
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Monday, November 21, 2011
What are the Consequences of a Eurozone Break-up? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences." That was Churchill in a speech to the House of Commons at the Palace of Westminster in London on November 12, 1936, as clouds darkened over Europe, three years before the outbreak of the Second World War. Dark clouds are now hovering once again over Europe in regard to the single currency, eurozone sovereign defaults and an interlinked banking crisis. This is not going to take three years.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Bankster Conspiracy for a United States of Europe / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: LewRockwell
Jim Davies writes: It's fascinating to watch the unfolding shambles in Europe, rather like observing, from a nearby lifeboat, the Titanic slowly but inexorably slipping under the water. "Expert" predictions are either gloomy or non-credible; either the EU will break up or its currency will collapse, or both. The dominoes are poised to tumble. But recently, a whisper has been heard about a rather different possible outcome. Conspiracists will leap at the chance to say the crisis was planned for that purpose.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Shame of the Euro: How the European Project Lost Touch With Democracy and Its Humanitarian Roots / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
Will Bancroft writes: The European project started with noble aims and general popular endorsement. We are not going to criticise the ideas for starting the ball rolling at The Treaty of Rome in 1957. The European continent had a bloody history of war, revolution, and conflict between different ethnic and cultural groups. A Second World War within a few decades of the first brought peoples and politicians to a highly developed state of empathy and cooperation. Fertile ground to lay the foundations of projects economic and political one might feel, and for some healthy collaboration for human advancement.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Destroy Germany to Save the Euro / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday German Chancellor Angela Merkel came flat out and said, "To save the Euro we must Destroy Germany".
Well not exactly, but she may as well have because that is the implication. This is what she did say: Germany Is Ready to Cede Some Sovereignty to Save the Euro
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Euro Bankrupting States Technocrats Now, Strong Man Next? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Adrian_Ash
The trouble is, this freedom thing has simply gone too far. Apparently...
YOU REMEMBER the Lisbon Treaty, right?
Rejected by voters in three of the five European Union states to be asked, it was signed regardless by the heads of all 27 member states in 2009, thus "complet[ing] the process [of] enhancing the efficiency and democratic legitimacy of the Union."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Europe's 'time is running out fast', Why the ECB hasn't acted yet / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Bloomberg
Willem Buiter, Citigroup's Chief Economist, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today about the crisis in Europe.
Buiter said that "time is running out fast" and that "it could be weeks, it could be days, before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy which would be a financial catastrophe dragging down the European banking system and North America with it."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Europe's Crisis: Beyond Finance / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
Everyone is wondering about the next disaster to befall Europe. Italy is one focus; Spain is also a possibility. But these crises are already under way. Instead, the next crisis will be political, not in the sense of what conventional politician is going to become prime minister, but in the deeper sense of whether Europe’s political elite can retain power, or whether new political forces are going to emerge that will completely reshape the European political landscape. If this happens, it will be by far the most important consequence of the European financial crisis.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Euro-Zone: Up the Creek without a Helicopter and Paralyzed By Hyper-Inflation Phobia / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Andrew_Butter
I don’t know why but when I watch the drama of the Euro crisis unfold my mind wanders to a scene in “Nashville” about a “country girl” who got a gig to jump out of a cake at a function, and didn’t quite understand what was supposed to happen next. I can’t help thinking that at some point in this whole sad scenario someone will have to stand naked.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Europe’s Economic Crash Landing / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
“Italy is now mathematically beyond the point of no return.” –Barclays Capital
November 11, 2011 -- The situation in Europe gets more depressing by the day. Policymakers have waited too long and now events are beyond their control. The only way to avert a disorderly breakup and another Great Depression is by deploying the European Central Bank (ECB) to backstop the debt of the individual countries, and even that might not work. New ECB chief Mario Draghi must announce his intention to keep interest rates down regardless of the cost. Blanket guarantees are the only way to stop the bleeding. But acting as lender of last resort will not stop the contagion; it will merely minimize the damage. The dissolution of the eurozone is a foregone conclusion. It’s only a matter of time. Here’s an excerpt from an article by Edward Harrison over at Credit Writedowns:
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Friday, November 11, 2011
Unity of Europe: Germany's Challenge? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
On the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of the 11th year of this century, we remember those who died in the two great wars so that we could all live freely. Just contemplate the super-symmetry and synchronicity of 11/11/11 at 11 o'clock. A hundred years will pass before that synchronicity will repeat. Will the legacy of those world wars still haunt us then?
Friday, November 11, 2011
Italy in Recession, Industrial Production Plunges 4.8% GDP Likely Already Negative / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is a note I received by email from Barclays Capital regarding Italian GDP and Industrial Production ...
Read full article... Read full article...Italy: September IP declined 4.8% m/m (BarCap: -4.0%, consensus: -3.0%)
Thursday, November 10, 2011
France and Germany Discuss Euro-zone Breakup Scenarios and Logistics of Denial / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Realization the Eurozone is no longer tenable is at long last at hand. In fact, "intense discussions" have been underway for months but are just now admitted to by senior EU officials.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Stalling German Economy Will Throw Petrol on Eurozone Debt Fire / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Germany's economy is slowing dramatically, an unwelcome turn of events that will put even more strain on existing fractures in the European Union (EU) as it struggles to cope with its ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
Last month a consortium of eight leading economic institutes slashed their forecast for German economic growth in 2012 by more than half, from 2% to 0.8%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2011
Disorderly Greece Debt Default and Exit from Eurozone? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
1. The possibility of a disorderly Greek default is now rising;
2. It is worth watching the Greek military which was on the verge of causing a coup earlier in the week;
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Greek Democracy Could Be Costly / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
When the news broke earlier this week that Greek prime minister George Papandreou would seek a popular referendum on the bailout deal that had been so torturously negotiated over the previous months, financial panic quickly emerged. A "no" vote by the Greek people would likely lead to a partial dissolution of the Eurozone and could be the beginning of the end of the euro currency itself.
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
Fait Accompli by George Papendrou Regarding the Greek Referendum / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Bob_Kirtley
Can you just visualize the look on the face of Nicolas Sarkozy when George Papendrou explains his actions as a fait accompli. The Greek Prime Minister can not back down now that he has made an announcement to hold a referendum, as it would look as though he was weak and capitulated under the pressure from his European masters.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 03, 2011
Eurocrats in Action, Ripping Off Taxpayers and Running Into Walls to Avoid the Cameras / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The following must see video shows Eurocrats in action, ripping off taxpayers and inadvertently running into walls to escape the lights of the camera. The video is in German but has English subtitles. A second video follows with French Subtitles.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; In Praise of Papandreou's Greece Referendum Decision / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
I do not know what motivated Greek Prime minister George Papandreou to call for a voter referendum on the Greek bailouts (and no one else does either) with the exception of Papandreou himself.
However, there are some rather interesting possibilities (as well as a simple explanation).
The Slog outlines a scenario that Papandreou’s bailout referendum bombshell was inspired by Merkel in order to trigger major losses in French banks, causing France to lose its AAA rating, culminating in a total Merkel victory and German revenge over France.
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
Perspectives on the Crisis in Europe / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week's Outside the Box will be unusual. Rather than one essay, I give you a number of short ones, and links that are representative of the confusion that is Europe, along with a little history. As I noted this weekend, last week's Eurozone announcement was short of details, and very little of the real work had been done. Merkel has to get her own country on board, keep the other nations that are in trouble from demanding haircuts, and keep the markets from trashing Italian and Spanish debt. Berlusconi has to figure out how to get the Italian budget balanced while staying out of jail and "balancing" his social calendar. Maybe he can dollar-cost average with a 70-year-old date? (Sorry, that was snarky, but it is so easy.)
Monday, October 31, 2011
Resurrection of Eurozone Debt Crisis Imminent? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
How fine are the emperor's new clothes? How beautifully spun is the yarn? Eurozone crisis may resurrect in the coming weeks because:
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Eurozone Bailout Deal: Hold the Cheers / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Stephen_Lendman
More debt agreed on exacerbates an out-of-control problem. Only its final resolution is delayed. The longer crisis conditions continue and grow, the worse they'll be when day of reckoning time arrives.
Nemesis, the goddess of vengeance and punisher of hubris and arrogance in Greek mythology, may have final say.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Euro-zone Treaty of Debt, ESM Bailout Mechanism Explained / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are interested in the terms of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) accord scheduled to replace the EFSF. The following video highlights the key sections of the proposed treaty.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
The Never Ending Euro Fiasco / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Imagine if the local fire chief, in the spirit of conservation, decided he’d use no more than 1,000 gallons of water to put out any given house fire. Do you think the citizens would support that policy if their town was burned to the ground? And, yet, this is the same approach that eurozone leaders are using to address the debt crisis. The central bank (ECB) has virtually limitless resources (Think: printing press) to defend the debt of the individual states and to act as lender of last resort, but the eurocrats won’t hear of it. They refuse to use the ECB as every other central bank in the world is used. They’d rather reinvent the wheel by creating a funky, improvised emergency fund (European Financial Stabilization Facility or EFSF) that’s massively leveraged and which only provides a 20 percent “first-loss” guarantee on sovereign bonds. So, for example, if Italy goes belly-up in the next year or so and can’t repay its debts, then Mr. bondholder gets a whopping 20 cents on the dollar. Such a deal!
Monday, October 24, 2011
What Do The Euro Crisis Summit Volcanic Eruptions Mean? Pyroclastic Flow Next / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
1. The summits of European leaders and finance ministers happening this weekend appeared to be filled with despair as personal relations amongst major European leaders -- most notably the Germans and French -- collapsed much further. In parallel, Anglo-French relations also deteriorated as British prime minister Cameron became embroiled in a furious row with French president Sarkozy over Britain's role in talks to resolve the euro crisis. The heated exchange between Cameron and Sarkozy was so bad that it held up the conclusion of the EU-27 summit for almost two hours.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Greece Bailout, Austerity and Protests, Greeks May Look North / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
As a final bailout framework for Greece continues to elude negotiators from France and Germany, the situation on the ground in Athens continues to deteriorate alarmingly. Protests have turned increasingly violent and riots have occurred in the most sensitive portions of the Greek capital.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
The Arrogance of France, Sarkozy Fights Merkel and ECB / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The "Merkozy" coalition is one again in open dispute with itself. German chancellor Angela Merkel has one position and French President Nicolas Sarkozy another.
Historically, Sarkozy's disputes with Merkel have always been resolved with Merkel buckling like corn flakes run over by a cement truck.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Eurozone on the Edge of Chaos: Illusion of Hope & Misaligned Expectations / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: DK_Matai
Financial markets appear to be oblivious to the scale of danger associated with the Eurozone skirting on the "Edge of Chaos.” The consequences of that event horizon are likely to be sudden and far from benign. Lord Wolfson -- chief executive of Next and a Conservative life peer -- has declared that working out how to handle a break-up of the eurozone "is a very big question."
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Economic Crisis in Europe; Unpayable Debts, Impending Financial Insolvency / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bob_Chapman
The big question is will Greece succumb to insolvency in November? Our answer is probably not. It should take 3 to 6 months but it is coming no matter how much money and credit is thrown at the problem. The markets on the short-term basis believe it is a coin toss. If the funds are not forthcoming you could see a 60-80 percent haircut on bond losses. If it is 3 to 6 months it will probably be 100%. Many in Europe believe the Merkel-Sarkozy team has a plan that will work, but as yet we do not know what that plan is. In spite of that the euro this past week rallied from $1.32 to $1.38 as the US dollar fell lower.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Busted Europe, Euro and the European Union Are Going Down / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Gary_North
The European Monetary Union is going to break down. This will be followed by a break-up of the European Union.
This is denied by the New World Order's promoters of international unification. They have been planning for this since the end of World War I. They have been actively implementing this by stealth since the early 1950s. They used treaties to bring this political unification to pass. They used economic unification as the bait. The hook of political unification was always buried in the bait.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 16, 2011
Eurozone Breakup Logistics / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
In his latest Email update, Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets discusses the in more detail the likelihood of a Eurozone breakup.
Until the label "End Pettis", what follows is from Pettis and anything in blockquotes (indented) is a reference that Pettis quotes.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
The Crisis of Europe and European Nationalism / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
When I visited Europe in 2008 and before, the idea that Europe was not going to emerge as one united political entity was regarded as heresy by many leaders. The European enterprise was seen as a work in progress moving inevitably toward unification — a group of nations committed to a common fate. What was a core vision in 2008 is now gone. What was inconceivable — the primacy of the traditional nation-state — is now commonly discussed, and steps to devolve Europe in part or in whole (such as ejecting Greece from the eurozone) are being contemplated. This is not a trivial event.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Europe Runs Out of Time, Impossible to Untangle, Breakup Inevitable / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
One of the many interesting aspects of the Eurozone crisis is how many key political and central bank leaders fail see (or at least admit) that Europe is out of time.
Even more peculiar are statements by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet who finally does realize time is of the essence, yet Trichet "solution" is a set of measures that must be passed by all 17 nations when those nations cannot agree on EFSF funding, on Eurobonds, on collateral for Greece, or even on whether a fiscal union or transfer union must take place.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Eurozone Deathwatch / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
There's no way to overstate the calamity that's unfolding across the Atlantic. The eurozone is imploding. The smart money has already fled EU banks for safe quarters in the US while political leaders frantically look for a way to prevent a seemingly-unavoidable meltdown. Here's an excerpt from a post at The Streetlight blog that explains what's going on:
Friday, September 02, 2011
Disintegrate the Eurozone to Solve the European Sovereign Debt Crisis / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
It's often difficult to comprehend - much less internalize - the risks posed by the European sovereign debt crisis.
But understand this: If Europe's problems aren't resolved in an orderly fashion, the stock market drops we saw last month will be small potatoes compared to the steep declines that lie ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Why the European Union Could be Dead Within a Week / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The clock may be ticking on the future of the European Union (EU).
After being shaken to its core by the sovereign debt crisis, the entire Eurozone now runs the risk of blowing up within a week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 01, 2011
Can the EU Fix Greece? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Greek parliament has passed the latest austerity package asked for by the IMF/ EU, and has approved the implementation legislation spelling out the various steps in detail. The markets have heaved a sigh of relief, comforted by the assumption that a new "bailout" plan is in the works. However, nothing has fundamentally changed: Greece is still facing an unsustainable debt burden and the various agencies of the European Union are still unable to come up with a coherent approach to the financial and structural challenges facing many member states.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Greek Austerity Package Gets Favorable Vote, Will Bond Yields Head North? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Greek parliament voted in favor of the austerity package and the second vote to implement this law is scheduled for June 29. In the meanwhile, 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield moved up 13 basis points in four trading days (0.48% as of June 28 vs. 0.35% as of June 23) and was trading at 0.45% as of this writing.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Greece Debt Crisis Long-term Solution E.U. Unification Under One Leader? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: James_Loong
As Papandreou, Greek PM, plans to put together another austerity package worth more than €6.5 billion ($9.3 billion) by the end of the month, the protesters outside the parliament building, unwilling to accept the prime minister’s course of action, shouted: “Thieves, traitors. What happened to our money?”
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Could the Eurozone Break Up? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
Is it possible for the Eurozone to break up? It was so inconceivable when they formed it that there is nothing in the treaty that mentions a member leaving or being removed; but now, if we're to be honest with ourselves, we need to think about how that would work. This Friday finds me in Kiev for the first time ever, with my youngest son, Trey; and the small tour we went on last night was fascinating. Since I know not if I will ever get to this fascinating city again, I am going to write a briefer missive than usual, and it will center on my thoughts on Europe, as I have just had the pleasure of the company of a number of very diverse people, talking about the issues. Nouriel Roubini has graciously agreed to allow me use his latest private piece (very powerful analysis here), where he analyzes the question of whether the Eurozone could actually break up, so you will get the usual solid content (OK, maybe a little better), with my notes at the end. And I'll close with some thoughts on Kiev.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Greek Unemployment and GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Ian_R_Campbell
The officially reported U.S. unemployment rate currently is 9.1%, and is frequently said by pundits to be at about 20% if all those Americans who have 'given up' looking for work are counted. Under any assumption the current U.S. unemployment rate is at extremely high levels by any historic standard - and everyone agrees, without really knowing where improvement is going to come from - that the reported U.S. unemployment rate needs to come down, and come down sooner than later.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 05, 2011
Europe Replacing Economic Democracy with Financial Oligarchy / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
Soon after the Socialist Party won Greece’s national elections in autumn 2009, it became apparent that the government’s finances were in a shambles. In May 2010, French President Nicolas Sarkozy took the lead in rounding up €120bn ($180 billion) from European governments to subsidize Greece’s unprogressive tax system that had led its government into debt – which Wall Street banks had helped conceal with Enron-style accounting.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
European Union, A Flawed Foundation, But Brilliant Strategy? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Gordon_T_Long
It was the perception of getting something of value without any meaningful sacrifice that initially fostered the EU Monetary Union. Though the countries of Europe were fiercely nationalistic they were willing to surrender minor sovereign powers only if it was going to prove advantageous to them. They were certainly unwilling to relinquish sufficient sovereignty to create the requisite political union required for its success.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Eurozone Debt Crisis, Euro Dead on Arrival / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I am attending the Global Interdependence Center’s latest conference here in Philadelphia, writing you from the Admiral’s Club on my way to Boston. The chatter last night at dinner and between sessions was focused on the risks in Europe. I did an interview with Aaron Task on Yahoo’s Daily Ticker, where I noted that European leaders are starting to use the word containedwhen they talk about Greece. Shades of Bernanke and subprime. This too will not be contained.
Sunday, May 01, 2011
France Questions Fundamental Principles of the European Union / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
France seems to have questioned one of the fundamental EU principles - freedom of movement within the EU. The possibility of revising the Schengen agreement by French was on the agenda in connection with the influx of refugees from North Africa, particularly from Tunisia.
Sunday, May 01, 2011
The European Union is Bursting at the Seams / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
The European Union is arguing about the controversy surrounding the proposals of France and Italy to restore border controls within the Schengen area due to the influx of refugees from North Africa. As it turns out, the other southern European countries support their initiative. However, the third pillar of the EU - Germany - is against it.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Europe in Economic Turmoil Following Debt and PIIGS Bailout Crisis / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Dan Steinbock, writer for The Globalist sent an interesting story he wrote regarding the Euro Crisis: Economic Turmoil, Political Backlash in the wake of the Finnish election results and the
rise of the "True Finns".
What follows is partial excerpt of that story, starting with a section titled "The Euro-Nordic Headache". I am not going to do my normal blockquote so as to make what follows easier to read. Everything that follows is from Dan Steinbock.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
The E.U. Cracks Up / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: LewRockwell
Political upheaval has hit Finland, and it’s merely a foreshadowing of bigger changes ahead. The core issue is whether Finland ought to be paying for bailouts for other EU states. In reaction to establishment support for the bailout, voters ousted the pro-bailout ruling party and gave an upset victory to the bailout-critical conservative party. Against every expectation, the eternal rule of the social democrats is at an end.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Spiralling Public Debt and Economic Stagnation in the European Union / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bob_Chapman
Europe continues to struggle from one problem to another. The euro has been strong only because the dollar has been weak. The governments of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain continue their balancing acts on the edge of a financial precipice. All have Socialist governments, which have done terrible jobs, but the opposition is not much better. Each economy is in serious trouble and if Italy and Belgium follow it will take $4 trillion to bail them out. If the solvent EU members bail them out they’ll fail as well. Americans and Brits can look down their noses, but their problems are just as bad if not worse. They all have practiced different versions of Keynesian economics that has been disastrous. Their fiscal and monetary policies have been and continue to be out of control, as corruption abounds. The solutions are unpalatable, especially for politicians, because they all spell austerity. We have just seen the European Central Bank raise interest rates as euro zone economies slow, as they hope to arrest 2.8% official inflation. Real inflation is double that number.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 15, 2011
Ireland Should Consider Joining the Sterling Area or the Dollar / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
“On Thursday 18th November 2010 The IMF arrived in the Emerald Isle. What a sad sad day that was for the proud people of Ireland. Following 300 years of armed struggle the then resident Fianna Fail government replaced English masters with the Continental variety. However the method of usurpation this time was not guns and bullets and starvation but economic and financial prowess. To the victor will go the spoils.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
European Stability Mechanism Helps Push Portugal To The Brink / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Richard Thies writes: Just days after cutting the rating on Portuguese government bonds from A- to BBB, S&P took the unusual action of further reducing its rating to BBB- today. The explicit cause for the additional downgrade was the recently announced terms of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the structure that will permanently replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility in 2013. Greece's rating was also cut further into junk territory from BB+ to BB-. There now exists a three-notch spread between Portugal's S&P and Moody's sovereign ratings, with the Moody's rating at A3 following a March 16th downgrade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Will German State-level Politics be Felt Throughout the Euro-zone? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
An upset in the regional election in one of Germany's 16 states could be expected to generate reams of newsprint in the local press, but wouldn't normally have implications for the continent's energy sector or for EU-level plans to support the financial sector. However, we live in unusual times and the surge in support for the Green party in Baden-Wuerttenberg will have consequences far beyond the borders of Germany's third-largest state.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Euro Debt Crisis and Economic Theory / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Kel_Kelly
Throughout the last year, European debt problems have been cited as a threat to both the euro and to the American economy, among other entities. While many correct assertions have been made concerning the potential impact of a European debt implosion, there have also been many ill-conceived ones. It is often faulty economic theory that leads to faulty conclusions. This article revisits economic theory — from a free-market perspective — as it relates to the current European monetary challenges.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Europe Debt Defaults, Austerity, and Death of the “Social Europe” Model / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
Prof Michael Hudson and Prof. Jeffrey Sommers writes: A spectre is haunting Europe: the illusion that Latvia’s financial and fiscal austerity is a model for other countries to emulate. Bankers and the financial press are asking governments from Greece to Ireland and now Spain as well: “Why can’t you be like Latvia and sacrifice your economy to pay the debts that you ran up during the financial bubble?” The answer is, they can’t – without an economic, demographic and political collapse that will only make matters worse.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Europe Stands on the Brink of New Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
Debt crisis of the European countries of Spain, Portugal and Greece will cause the EU to experience a new crisis, says Ethan Harris, principal analyst for the economies of developed countries BofA Merrill Lynch. The crisis will begin in the coming months if the EU does not find ways to solve sovereign debt problems. Yet, China is already rushing to help and ready to buy Spanish bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 10, 2011
The Global Effects of the Economic Crisis: A European Strategy for the Left / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
The global effects of the crisis have been made even worse by what is happening in Europe. For thirty years the contradictions of capitalism have been overcome with the help of an enormous accumulation of phantom rights to surplus value. The crisis has threatened to destroy them. The bourgeois governments have decided to preserve them claiming that we have to save the banks. They have taken on the banks' debts and asked for virtually nothing in return. Yet it would have been possible to make this rescue conditional on some assurances. They could have banned speculative financial instruments and closed the tax loopholes. They could even have insisted that they take responsibility for some of the public debt that this rescue increased so dramatically.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
A Spectre is Still Haunting Europe... / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
But this time it's not necessarily Communism, or any other label used by humans to conveniently understand their complex forms of socioeconomic organization. It's the spectre of an unrelenting reality, emerging from the depths of history, with no plans to follow but its own. What exactly, then, is reality and why does it have its own plans? These are not easy questions to answer, but many brilliant minds have had much to write and say on the topic. It may be safe to say with near certainty that, if nothing else, reality is constantly evolving and always lingering in the furthest boundaries of our comprehension.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, European Monetary Union to Muddle Through or Fall Apart? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Ingo Schmidt writes: Springtime in Athens, Dublin in the fall. Lisbon next time or Madrid? The sparks of public deficits, foreign debt, and soaring risk premiums have lit a fire of fiscal and debt crises in the European periphery that have even inflamed the corridors of Euro-power – the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission and the capitals of the European Union (EU) heavyweights of France and Germany. In May, when Greece accepted a €45-billion bailout package, with the usual neoliberal adjustment strings attached, only a few folks on the fringes of the political spectrum speculated about the break-up of the Euro-zone. The recent negotiations between the Irish government and the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the governments of Britain, Denmark and Sweden, were concluded with an additional €85-billion worth of credits and guarantees being anted up. But they also have started to raise serious concerns about the future of the Euro.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Why the Eurozone and the Euro Will Not Collapse, But Will Change / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
There appears to be just over one week left for the Eurozone Finance Ministers to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis or face a collapse of confidence in it and the euro. This need not lead to a collapse of the two though. In perhaps an underestimated situation, the discord among the members of the "Europe United" bloc, the seeming inability to permanently resolve the crisis is well on the way to that end.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Farewell to the E.U. Superstate / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Wednesday's press conference with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet turned out to be a real jaw-dropper. While Trichet didn't commit himself to massive bond purchases (Quantitative Easing) as many had hoped, he did impress the gathering with his magical skills. The Financial Times recounts Trichet's what happened like this:
Friday, December 03, 2010
ECB Held Hostage By Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet earlier this year resisted pressure to intervene when Greece's budget deficit spurred investor concerns about the viability of the Eurozone and its single currency, the euro. But a bond market sell-off forced Trichet's hand and the ECB began purchasing government debt.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
European Union R.I.P.? Lets Hope So! / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: LewRockwell
Patrick J. Buchanan writes: When communism collapsed in Moscow, Prague and Belgrade at the end of the Cold War, ethnic nationalism surged to the surface in all three nations and tore them apart into 24 countries.
Economic nationalism is now resurgent across Europe. And it is hard to see how a transnational institution like the European Union, run by faceless bureaucrats, and the 16-nation eurozone it created long survive.
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Saturday, November 27, 2010
The Euro Zone’s Debt Crisis Timeout Is Expiring! / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bryan_Rich
Last year’s Thanksgiving weekend was an unusually active holiday news cycle.
Of course, it was when Tiger Woods had his bizarre car accident outside of his home. That saga would dominate the news for months to come. The lesser-followed news item of that weekend came out of Dubai when the emirate announced it would restructure its sovereign debt.
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Thursday, November 25, 2010
Ireland Debt Crisis and Economic Austerity / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Kevin_Geary
As details of the worst austerity budget in memory emerged ahead of the budget debate on Dec. 7th, This was overheard at the Irish Stock Exchange:"We don't know where the money went," said the trader, half in jest, but half in earnest. "We've been debating it all morning. Cars, flat-screen TVs, Bulgarian properties? Everyone round here used to have a Mercedes. The whole country was a pyramid scheme."
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Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Ireland Still Refuses To Contemplate Leaving the “Imperial” Euro and Joining a “Mediterranean” Euro Zone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
On Thursday 18th 2010 The IMF arrived in the Emerald Isle. What a sad sad day for the proud people of Ireland. Following 300 years of armed struggle the resident government have replaced English masters with the Continental variety. However the method of usurpation this time was not guns and bullets and starvation but economic and financial prowess.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Capitalism Destroys Ireland's Workers Republic / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
James Connolly, the Irish socialist and trade union leader shot by the British in May 1916 for his part in the Easter Rising, was convinced, early in the last century, that capitalism simply could not develop fully in Ireland.
From that assessment he argued that only a Workers’ Republic could really free Ireland from foreign domination. In any case, he didn’t want capitalism to develop — didn’t want the Irish bourgeoisie to climb on the backs of the working people of Ireland.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Ireland's Economic Suicide Pact with the E.U. / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Ireland could be the next Lehman Brothers. That's what has the markets worried. If Irish leaders refuse to accept a bailout from the EU's new European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), then bondholders will be forced to take haircuts on their investments which will leave banks in Germany and France short of capital. Bonds yields will rise sharply slowing activity in the credit markets. An Irish default will trigger hundreds of billions of dollars in credit default swaps (CDS), which will push weaker counterparties into bankruptcy and domino through the financial system. Contagion will spread to Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy widening bond yields and forcing governments to increase their borrowing at the ECB. Business activity will sputter, unemployment will rise, and growth will shrink. It will be a second financial meltdown.
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Thursday, November 18, 2010
Ireland Being Forced to Become a Debt Slave Nation / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
If Europe's single currency fails, so would the Union itself. The warning comes from the EU president, who was speaking ahead of the meeting of the Eurozone's finance ministers. Portugal has warned it could be forced out of the Eurozone, and Ireland is also being urged to use European bailout money to prevent bankruptcy. But Financial analyst Max Keiser says going to the IMF for help would be even worse.
Friday, October 08, 2010
Spain's Social Democracy Under Economic Pressure / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
The general strike on September 29 against the labor reform decided by the government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is the opening of a probably hectic social season. The government has promised to submit a new bill to Congress before the end of the year intended to increase from 65 to 67 the legal age of retirement and extend the period of computation for determining the amount of the pension, from the previous 15 years of work into the last 20 ...
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Sunday, October 03, 2010
European Debt Crisis Assimilating Portugal into Spain? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
Draconian measures were taken this week in Portugal by the "Socialist" (only in name) Government of José Sócrates, yet another right/centre right Government asking the Portuguese people to make sacrifices, a plea repeated time and again as this long-suffering, hard-working nation slips a few cogs further back into the quagmire of misery.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Roma Deporations in Sarkozy's Vichy France, Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité is a Joke / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Alex Lantier writes: In the run-up to yesterday’s European Union (EU) summit in Brussels, European officials and heads of state disavowed criticisms of French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s mass deportation of Roma by European Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Germany’s Export Reliant Economic Recovery Edges Out European Neighbors / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
By relying on exports and not promoting domestic demand, Germany is creating a lopsided recovery that is hurting retailers and foreign exporters.
While Germany's exports continue to surge, its consumers are refusing to spend. The government has failed to raise wages or encourage consumption and says it has few plans to do so.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bullish Outlook for European Economies, U.S. QE2 Problems / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve Vannelli analyzes the latest speculation about the Fed and quantitative easing. All those calling for QE2 may not actually do what they think it will. His conclusion?
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
How Gangsters are Saving the Eurozone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
Stephen Fidler writes: Gangsters, drug dealers and criminals engaged in money laundering appear to be helping to shore up the financial stability of the eurozone. That is thanks to the demand, European officials said, for high-denomination banknotes, mainly from 200 euros and 500 euros. The European Central Bank issues these bills for a large profit which is welcome at a time when their response to the financial crisis has cast doubt on their financial strength.
Thursday, July 08, 2010
State of the European Banking System / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
Summary -
In the last six months, the eurozone has faced its biggest economic challenge to date — one sparked by the Greek debt crisis which has migrated to the rest of the monetary union. But well before the sovereign debt crisis, Europe was facing a full-blown banking crisis that did not seem any closer to being resolved than when it began in late 2008. With investors and markets focused on European governments' debt problems, the banking issues have largely been ignored. However, the sovereign debt crisis and banking crisis have become intertwined and could feed off each other in the near future.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 02, 2010
Euribor’s Wobble, How Nervous Should We Be? / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Since the beginning of May, Euribor has traded in a clearly defined sideways pattern. Our analysis of this contract had broadly been that it had little room to rally further due to the economic recovery clearly underway, but no reason to turn into a bear market yet since that recovery was still too fragile.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Europe’s Fiscal Dystopia: The “New Austerity” Road to Financial Serfdom / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Michael_Hudson
Europe is committing fiscal suicide – and will have little trouble finding allies at this weekend’s G-20 meetings in Toronto. Despite the deepening Great Recession threatening to bring on outright depression, European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet and prime ministers from Britain’s David Cameron to Greece’s George Papandreou (president of the Socialist International) and Canada’s host, Conservative Premier Stephen Harper, are calling for cutbacks in public spending.
Friday, June 25, 2010
How to Profit From Europe’s Stealth Economic Recovery / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: European countries - both inside and outside the Eurozone - are slashing their budget deficits.
Greece, Portugal and Spain - three of the so-called "PIGS" - have to do so, of course. But Germany - generally reckoned to be in excellent shape - is also cutting its deficit, as is France, which hasn't run a budget surplus in 40 years. Britain, too, with no need to protect the euro (it's not a Eurozone member) just introduced a budget that cut the deficit by $140 billion over four years.
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Sunday, June 06, 2010
Europe Plunged Into Chaos on the Eve of the Bilderberg Conference / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Olga Chetverikova writes: The Bilderberg group will convene in Sitges, Spain, a resort community 30 km from Barcelona, on June 4-7. As usual, the information is supplied by James Tucker and Daniel Estulin who revealed that this year the issues topping the agenda of the club's meeting will be the global recession and the approaches to provoking such economic breakdowns that can help justify the establishment of a full-scale world economic governance.
Saturday, June 05, 2010
Europe is Headed For a Mini Economic Depression / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation, financial conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of market stress are edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have widened to levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Europe Relapses into Economic Crisis / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
While most analysts and commentators in the Western world are working to affirm that the recovery progresses, Europe seems to live in a relapse of the global economic crisis. There are few stories that account for the implementation of austerity plans to reduce fiscal deficits and public debts in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and even the UK.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2010
North European Euro Nations Preparing to Slaughter the PIGS / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Natural forces are at work in Europe, powerful forces, in fact forces that are not evident. It is amazing how little the financial analysts notice the forces at all. Since the year 2007, a hidden force began to put pressure on the European Union financial underpinning. Like any fiat currency, the foundation resorts to debt. It came to my attention almost three full years ago that Spanish EuroBonds had a yield slightly higher than the benchmark German.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Europe on the Verge of a Liquidity Crisis? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
The euro's recent struggles have done more than bring the currency's viability into question. They've put the European Central Bank (ECB) on a collision course with a liquidity crisis.
The ECB is running low on dollars, and that problem could escalate when the U.S. Federal Reserve closes swap lines that were temporarily reinstated as the Greek debt crisis escalated. Additionally, more deposits are being yanked from the central bank as holders question whether or not the ECB has enough juice to stop a classic bank panic.
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Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Germany After the E.U. and the Russian Scenario / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
Discussions about Europe currently are focused on the Greek financial crisis and its potential effect on the future of the European Union. Discussions these days involving military matters and Europe appear insignificant and even anachronistic. Certainly, we would agree that the future of the European Union towers over all other considerations at the moment, but we would argue that scenarios for the future of the European Union exist in which military matters are far from archaic.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Merkel's Savage Blitz through Euroland, Germany Pushing Eurozone To Cliffs Edge / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Angela Merkel has let a minor brush-fire on the periphery turn into a raging inferno that's sweeping across the continent. Absent Berlin's fumbling diplomatic effort and its ferocious attachment to Hooverian economics, the Greek matter would have been over by now. Instead, the fire continues to burn while the German Chancellor pushes the eurozone closer and closer to the cliff. And what for; to prove that prodigal spending by the member states (Greece) mustn't go unpunished? Is that what this is all about? Is Merkel really willing to break up the EU just to prove her point and to accommodate her towering sense of self righteousness?
Friday, May 21, 2010
EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks? / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Gordon_T_Long
The European Crisis is proving to be more of an unraveling than a contagion.
I have long written that the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitution and Euro currency should be viewed in the context of a risky bet versus a sound regional monetary strategy. The odds of the EMU’s survival are presently reflected in a plunging Euro, despite a historic and unprecedented intervention. This indicates that the EMU’s existence in its current form is now a bad bet.
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Friday, May 21, 2010
What the Greek Debt Crisis Means For Euro and European Markets, Elliott Wave Analysis / Stock-Markets / Euro-Zone
By: EWI
European Debt: Market moves around the world can impact your portfolio. So whether you know it or not, you probably have a stake in Europe's financial future. You must read this explosive new free report from our friends at Elliott Wave International. They've been anticipating and tracking the growing debt crisis in Europe, and they're giving away some of their best forecasts and analysis for the region -- for free. Learn more and download your free report now >> .
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Germany About to Pull the Plug On Europe, This is Going to Hurt! / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mac_Slavo
We continue to hound on the situation in the European Union, the Euro, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS because of a similar situation that existed prior to the Great Depression. The Great Depression, some argue, resulted not from the bubble and subsequent stock market crash leading up to 1929, but rather, the defaults that spread across Europe (and parts of South America). These defaults had a direct effect on the European banking system, which subsequently led to collapses of the major banks.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Eurozone Crisis at Point of Maximum Danger, Great Depression II? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Debt woes in Greece have sent bond yields soaring and increased the prospect of sovereign default. A restructuring of Greek debt will deal a blow to lenders in Germany and France that are insufficiently capitalized to manage the losses. Finance ministers, EU heads-of-state and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded forcefully to try to avert another banking meltdown that could plunge the world back into recession.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Eurozone Debt Crisis Goes Totally Looney Tunes! / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Graham_Summers
Baguettes Vs. Bratwursts - The situation in Europe has officially passed “crazy” and gone into total Looney-Tune-ville. Let’s review how this once great economic entity has shifted from producing anything of value to an economy primarily involved in the production of insane headlines that look like something from The Onion or some other satirical newspaper.
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Tuesday, May 18, 2010
The "Eurozone Coup d’Etat", Trend Towards Global Systemic Economic Crisis / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Just as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 in issues N°40 (December 2009) and N°42 (February 2010), spring 2010 really marks a tipping point of the global systemic crisis, characterized by a sudden expansion due to the intolerable size of public deficits (see issue N° 39, November 2009) and the inexistence of the recovery, so often announced (see issue N°37, September 2009). Besides, the dramatic social and political consequences of this development clearly reflect the beginning of the process of global geopolitical dislocation as anticipated in issue N°32 (February 2009).
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Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Germany, Greece and Exiting the Eurozone / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
Rumors of the imminent collapse of the eurozone continue to swirl despite the Europeans’ best efforts to hold the currency union together. Some accounts in the financial world have even suggested that Germany’s frustration with the crisis could cause Berlin to quit the eurozone — as soon as this past weekend, according to some — while at the most recent gathering of European leaders French President Nicolas Sarkozy apparently threatened to bolt the bloc if Berlin did not help Greece. Meanwhile, many in Germany — including Chancellor Angela Merkel herself at one point — have called for the creation of a mechanism by which Greece — or the eurozone’s other over-indebted, uncompetitive economies — could be kicked out of the eurozone in the future should they not mend their “irresponsible” spending habits.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
ECB Abandons Independence and Prints $1Trilion to Prevent Euro-Zone Collapse / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
Europe Throws a Hail Mary Pass
It's More Than Just Government Debt
The Grand Misallocation
In a 1975 playoff game, the Dallas Cowboys were nearly out of time and facing elimination from the playoffs, down 14-10 against a very good Minnesota Vikings team. The Cowboys future Hall of Fame quarterback Roger Staubach had no very good options. He later said he dropped back to pass, closed his eyes and, as a good Catholic, said a Hail Mary and threw the ball as far as he could. Wide receiver Drew Pearson had to come back for the ball and, in a very controversial play, managed to catch the ball on his hip and stumble into the end zone. Angry Vikings fans threw trash onto the field, and one threw a whiskey bottle that knocked a referee out. After that play, all last-minute desperation passes became known as Hail Mary passes. (That was a very thrilling game to watch!)
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Saturday, May 15, 2010
Market "Thumbs Down" on the EU Bailout / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
Barack Obama must have been very frightened, indeed. Otherwise he never would have inserted himself so forcefully into Greece's debt crisis. The truth is, there's much more at stake then people seem to realize. A Greek default would be a major blow to the banking system and the damage would not be limited just to Europe. It could easily spread to the United States and trigger another meltdown. That's why Obama spent most of his weekend on the phone, exhorting EU finance ministers to take swift action to put out the brushfire. Not surprisingly, the details were omitted in the US. media. Here's an excerpt from the UK Independent explaining what happened behind the scenes last weekend:
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Wednesday, May 12, 2010
European Bailout A Typical Response To An Atypical Debt Crisis Problem / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The past two months have seen a fairly typical - if dramatic - example of the European Union response to a policy dilemma. First comes an extended period of trying to avoid the problem, paying some lip-service to the issue but with each leader ultimately more focused on any domestic political dimension. Then comes a final deadline that forces the collective hand of the Union members, resulting is some last-minute deal-making to avert a (real or imagined) crisis. The result is also typical - a deal that both creates a shift in the parameters of the Union and leaves an awful lot of unfinished business swept under the carpet.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
European Financial Crisis Moving To a New Level, Nationalism and Shared Fate / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
The European financial crisis is moving to a new level. The Germans have finally consented to lead a bailout effort for Greece. The effort has angered the German public, which has acceded with sullen reluctance. It does not accept the idea that it is Germans’ responsibility to save Greeks from their own actions. The Greeks are enraged at the reluctance, having understood that membership in the European Union meant that Greece’s problems were Europe’s.
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Trichet Floods European Banking System With Cash / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
After all his tough bulldog talk over the years, the world can now see Trichet is in reality nothing more than a monetarist pussycat when the chips are on the line.
Thursday, April 08, 2010
Life, Euro Beyond Greece - Crystal Clear / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
Focus at today's European Central Bank (ECB) press conference was on the continued tremors rattling Greece. A couple of key points:
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
The Greek Financial Crisis and the European Timetable / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Dimitri Diamant writes: Now that the Lisbon Treaty of 2009 is behind us, after it was forced through Ireland, after the Irish were told to keep voting on this until they said "yes"; now the European Union moves on to the next item on its timetable. The next step is to create a centralized Ministry in Brussels for Finance and Taxation, thereby further eroding the diminishing national sovereignty of the now twenty-seven member states; and what better way to do this than to organize a specific potshot against the little country of Greece?
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
European Central Bank - Seize the Opportunity! / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
For better or worse, any support to Greece is a political matter. However, in the absence of a political process, much of the focus has been on the European Central Bank (ECB): one of the few European institutions that has provided consistent and robust leadership throughout the financial crisis. ECB President Trichet has rightfully argued that it is not the ECB’s role to provide financial assistance to Greece.
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Monday, April 05, 2010
Greece Debt Crisis Bailout, Europe Out of Time-Outs / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bryan_Rich
In sports, if the opposition is on a roll and the momentum is squarely against you … you need a “time-out.” This interruption in action can break the rhythm of the opposing team and give your team a moment to re-evaluate and re-group.
In the euro zone, European officials called a time-out back in February hoping to stem the heavy wave of selling against the euro and the speculative pressures on sovereign debt risk.
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Investors Beware of Eurozone Plans for Greek Debt Bailout / Stock-Markets / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: An old proverb dating back to the Trojan War tells us to "beware of Greeks bearing gifts."
Today, with the fate of the European euro and perhaps even the entire Eurozone region hanging in the balance - and Greece needing a bailout to avoid default on its massive public debt - a more-appropriate warning might be: "Beware of Greeks seeking gifts."
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Bailing out the Greeks, The Revolt in the Eurozone / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Binoy Kampmark writes: "You made a great mistake when you went back to the gold standard at the wrong parity of exchange in 1925." Charlie Chaplin to Winston Churchill
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Thursday, March 18, 2010
Eurozone Needs Markets Not Bailouts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
Deutsche Bank Chief Josef Ackermann is looking after his own house rather than the eurzone's interests in calling for a Greek bailout. If there is one thing the financial crisis has taught us, it is that simply patching up trouble spots may not be a recipe for increased structural stability. If there was a problem it is that Greece was enticed to spend too much last decade because its cost of borrowing was too low.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Euro-Zone Debt Crisis Woes Part2 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Sol_Palha
"It is a painful thing to look at your own trouble and know that you yourself and no one else has made it." ~ Sophocles
The EU is poised to reach agreement on a potential multi-billion euro bail-out for Greece after weeks of crisis, senior officials have told the BBC.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Germany’s Place in Europe, The MittelEuropa Redux / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
The global system is undergoing profound change. Three powers — Germany, Iran and China — face challenges forcing them to refashion the way they interact with their regions and the world. We will explore each of these three states in detail in our next three geopolitical weeklies, highlighting how STRATFOR’s assessments of these states are evolving. We will examine Germany first.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Eurozone Governments Blame Greek Debt Crisis on Speculators Instead of Looking in the Mirror / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The heads of Germany, France and Greece are continuing to highly vocally blame financial speculators for Greece's debt financing woes. This clearly amounts to political propaganda in an attempt to ms-direct the eyes of their electorate away from those culpable in bringing the crisis about against rising debt financing and insurance costs which is a SYMPTOM of the crisis and not its cause.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
The Euro a Lost Cause, Greecing Over Greece / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Gary_North
In my previous report, "Bankrolling the Incontinent Subcontinent," I discussed the basics of the European crisis. The mess was predictable. The experts did not predict it.
The Northern bankers did not predict it. They have lent gigantic sums to the Mediterranean governments. Their solvency is at risk. On the extent of the loans, click here.
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Saturday, February 13, 2010
Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker's Grecian Bluff / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Eurozone's Grecian charade continues this weekend with still more "moral support". One has to start wondering when the market is going to go "all in" in response to what is clearly nothing more than an obvious bluff by various European officials.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
German Bailout of Greece, PIIGS Would Herald Shift of E.U. Power To Germany / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: STRATFOR
The situation in Europe is dire.
After years of profligate spending, Greece is becoming overwhelmed. Barring some sort of large-scale bailout program, a Greek debt default at this point is highly likely. At this moment, European Central Bank liquidity efforts are probably the only thing holding back such a default. But these are a stopgap measure that can hold only until more important economies manage to find their feet. And Europe’s problems extend beyond Greece. Fundamentals are so poor across the board that any number of eurozone states quickly could follow Greece down.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Poland's Economy Is No Joke / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Peter_Schiff
Watching the world's leaders stumble their way through the economic crisis, it often feels as if political success and economic understanding are mutually exclusive. Even the Chinese, who over the past generation have engineered a dramatic turnaround from their Maoist economic nightmare, show a remarkable willingness to pursue a monetary policy (a currency peg to the U.S. dollar) that yields no benefit to their citizens. Amid this morass of economic quackery, it is refreshing to see a clear ray of sanity emanating from one country: Poland.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Europe in Economic Crisis / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Peter Schwarz writes: At the start of the last decade, in March 2000, the European Union heads of state announced the Lisbon Strategy. Its aim, by 2010, was to make Europe “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.” This would create “the conditions for full employment and the strengthening of regional cohesion in the European Union.”
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Eurozone Faces Meltdown Under Sovereign Debt Crisis 2010 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Browne
As fears of a dollar meltdown have loomed ever larger in recent years, major investors, including central banks, have moved significant portions of their cash reserves into the euro, the currency of the European Union (EU). And while it is true that the euro offers some shelter from the American economic catastrophe, the currency does come with baggage that investors should not ignore.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Our Enemy the State / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Christopher_Quigley
A Tribute to Mr. Raymond Crotty 1925-1994Economics Lecturer Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.
"Our Enemy the State", so said Raymond Crotty in 1988 in his book "A Radical's Response". In this treatise Mr. Crotty, former farmer and economics lecturer at Trinity College, tried to explain why Ireland should not have joined the EEC. Through his efforts the constitution was correctly used to try to protect the Irish people from what he saw as abuse of privilege by an immoral political class that usurped power from the British in 1922. This class, he believed, were using the resources of the Irish people for their own selfish benefit.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Less Than Good Economic News from Germany / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Richard_Shaw
The elections are over in Germany and the new finance minister is making sobering statements about recovery. Germany is a major part of the European economy. With Italy limping and Spain bleeding, Germany’s statement is hardly welcome.
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Spain, The Financial Black Hole In Europe's Balance Sheet / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
Today's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue.
I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their material for some time and have begun to look very much forward to it. They do some very good in-depth analysis. I asked then to shorten a piece they did on Spain and Spanish banks for this week's Outside the Box. Spain will soon be faced with a number of very uncomfortable choices, but for now they appear in denial.
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Friday, August 21, 2009
Europe Economic Recovery, Rhetoric and Reality / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Ulrich Rippert writes: In Paris and Berlin, politicians and sections of the media are speaking euphorically of an end to the recession and the start of an economic upturn.
Writing in the German business newspaper Handelsblatt, Torsten Riecke declares, “The harshest downturn since the Second World War is over. The nightmare is at an end.”
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
European Union Being Held Together With Duct Tape / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Justice_Litle
Among its many other sins, the greenback is a press hog. The world’s reserve currency, loved and loathed as it is, simply gets most of the ink these days.
In that light many a U.S.-based commentator, not least your cynical Taipan Daily scribes, have repeatedly waxed eloquent on the long-run death of the dollar.
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Thursday, June 04, 2009
Germanies Merkel Cautions European Central Bankers on Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
German Chancellor Angela Merkel caused a stir when warning the European Central Bank not to engage in asset purchases. She has received a lot of attention as it is an unwritten rule not to infringe upon the independence of central bankers. While we would typically agree that the independence of central bankers is of paramount importance, we believe it is not only appropriate, but also her duty to speak out. Let us elaborate.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Financial Version of the Swine Flu Infects German Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Michal_Matovcik
Month ago we posted article German 1 Trillion Toxic Assets Problem, where a report by Sueddeutsche Zeitung cites an internal paper by the banking regulator that puts the total of bad assets in the German banking system at €816bn. This report caused outrage among German officials, as always when someone uncovers the truth. The above mentioned number includes toxic securitized assets, and also bad loans, and unlike previous lists, this report named the banks. In one case, half of all assets of a particular Landesbank are classified as toxic, Commerzbank was also on the list with a huge depot of toxic waste. This is now past.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
European Union in Crisis as Financial & Economic Problems Multiply Threatening Euro Stability / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_and_Markets
Bryan Rich writes: The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in last year’s report.
Friday, April 17, 2009
European Economic Meltdown Triggers Infighting at European Central Bank / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The European economy is in a shambles and the European Central Bank is clearly worried. Although there is a bit of infighting among the central bank governing board, Trichet Says ECB Must Do Everything to Restore Confidence.
Read full article... Read full article...European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank would do everything possible to restore confidence and prosperity.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
European Union About to Collapse? / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Pravda
The resignation of the government of the Czech Republic has shocked the whole European Union because the nation currently presides over the organization. Nevertheless, the political changes in the chairing state are not going to be a disaster for the European Union. When Denmark was a chairing EU state in 1993, Social Democrat Paul Rasmussen replaced Conservative Prime Minister Paul Schluter and became the EU chairman. The political change did not have any influence on the work of the European Union. Another incident took place in 1996 in Italy, during the country's EU chairmanship too, and had no consequences either. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Wall Street and London’s Attempt to Destabilize the Euro, EU Banking System / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Submissions
According to LEAP/E2020, there are only two options left for the G20 leaders who gather next April 2nd in London: either they rebuild a new international monetary system, creating the conditions for a new global system that involves all the main global players, and reducing the crisis to a maximum of 3 to 5 years; or they strive to prolong the current system, thrusting the world into a decade long tragic crisis starting at the end of 2009.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Subprime Eastern Europe to Bankrupt Western European Banks / News_Letter / Euro-Zone
By: NewsLetter
March 4th , 2009 Issue #17 Vol. 3The long ticking time bomb of Eastern European debt is starting to explode with an even greater inevitability as that of subprime mortgages exploding in the United States, as at least in the United States the determining factor of whether or not the mortgage market would go bust is the state of the US housing market. With Eastern Europe the big and obvious question mark that has been raised many times long before the housing markets peaked and the stock markets crashed was the degree of borrowing by Eastern Europeans in foreign currencies that set the borrowers up for the ticking currency time bomb when the forex trends reversed against them would send the value of debts soaring in the domestic currencies thus pushing for example the housing borrowers into negative equity WITHOUT A FALL IN HOUSE PRICES. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Bankrupt European Banks Sitting on $23 Trillion of Impaired Assets / Companies / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at the European bank markets through the eyes of my London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners. I continue to believe that this is a brewing crisis which could have far more significant implications for the global economy than the Asian Crisis of 1998. In this week's Outside the Box, Niels has compiled a sobering set of data that suggests that only massive government involvement in Europe on a scale that is unprecedented will keep the wheels from coming off in Europe and the global economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 23, 2009
German Economic Intervention Has No Limits / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Across the board, the 2009 economic news is bad for Germany. Unshipped goods and containers are piling up at the Hamburg port as Germany Faces Worst Post-War Economic Downturn .
Germany is facing its biggest economic decline since the Second World War with Chancellor Angela Merkel's government saying Wednesday it expects Europe's largest economy to contract by 2.25 per cent this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Euro-zone: Interest Rates, Inflation, the Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lopped another 50 bps off its refi rate this morning, taking it to 2.0%. Rates have now come down by 225 bps in four successive steps, including a 75 bps cut in December, as the Euro-zone economy hits the skids and inflation drops sharply.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Norway's Central Bank Slashes Rates, Warns of Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Norway's central bank today slashed its sight deposit rate by a record 175 bps, taking it to 3.0%. Stating that the risk of a "pronounced downturn" in the economy has increased, Norges Bank warned that real GDP is likely to contract in Q4 2008 and again in Q1 2009 - a marked contrast to its forecast of continued growth made just two months ago. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
European Historic Interest Rate Cuts Suggest Dismal Economic Outlook / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), and Sweden's Riksbank all slashed their policy interest rates Thursday morning, and all cited the same reasons - that demand conditions have deteriorated markedly, and that inflation is likely to undershoot their respective medium-term targets. Even after the drama of this morning's moves, rates are likely to go lower in 2009, particularly in the Euro-zone. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 04, 2008
ECB Biggest Interest Rate Cut in History Heading for ZIRP / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The race to Global ZIRP took another big step forward today as central bankers around the globe cut rates. Let's take a look at the recent action .Europe's Central Banks Lower Rates to Fight Recession
The European Central Bank delivered a 75 basis-point reduction in its main refinancing rate, the most in its 10-year history, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark rate to 2 percent, the lowest level since 1951. The Swedish and Danish central banks also lowered their key rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Deepening Recession in Germany and Across the Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The European Central Bank (ECB) will be cutting its refi rate again next week (December 4), the only question being whether the policymakers will opt for a third consecutive 50bp reduction, or bite the bullet and make a larger cut. Last week various Governing Council members were making it clear that they expect a 50bp easing, but after this morning's data releases some may argue for a more significant move. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Deteriorating Economic Outlook for Germany and Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Last week's PMI surveys for the Euro-zone and for its various countries warned that the outlook for Q4 is deteriorating sharply. To date, the strongest of the major Euro-zone economies clearly has been Germany, which may actually escape a technical recession if consumer demand keeps Q3 real GDP growth in positive territory. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
ECB Signals Imminent European Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
For the first time in over five years the European Central Bank (ECB) today shifted its bias toward easing. In his subsequent comments, President Trichet stated that the ECB had "no bias" regarding future monetary policy moves, and refused to be drawn on the likelihood of a lower refi rate before year's end. However, the Council reportedly discussed only two options: leaving rates unchanged or easing. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Euro-zone Economy Sinking Fast Towards Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
A month ago, two of our favorite leading indicators for the Euro-zone economy were pointing to a slowdown but not an outright stop, and we were still hopeful that signs of recovery could be cropping up by the end of this year. One month on, the outlook has deteriorated.
Germany's Ifo business climate index for September - a poll of around 7,000 firms - deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, coming in at 92.9 (94.8 in August). The gauge of current conditions dropped to 99.8 (103.2 in August) and the expectations index slipped to 86.5 (from 87.0), its lowest level in 15 years. The overall index is still above the lows recorded in late 2002, the last time Germany was headed into recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Easing EuroZone Inflation Sends Euro Tumbling / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting European Economic Confidence Drops, Inflation Eases . Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Europeans' confidence in the economic outlook fell more than economists forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. Inflation unexpectedly slowed.
The euro pared gains after the reports, which signaled the slump in economic growth is extending through the third quarter and a 20 percent drop in oil prices from a record $147.27 a barrel last month is easing inflation pressures. Consumer-price increases are still above the European Central Bank's limit, prompting policy makers including Axel Weber to indicate they are in no hurry to cut interest rates even as expansion slows.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Czech Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As anticipated (see Daily Global Commentary, July 30: " Surging Central European Currencies: Running Out of Steam? "), the Czech central bank switched to easing mode yesterday, lowering its key repo rate by 25bps to 3.50% - the first actual cut in over four years. Governor Tuma noted that the Czech economy is in a "declining phase" and that a "bigger dampening" is now expected. The bank also lowered its GDP growth forecasts to 4.1% this year (prev. 4.7%) and 3.6% in 2009 (prev. 4.0%). Tuma also warned that he could not exclude another rate cut this year. The vote by the six-member policy board reportedly was unanimous.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
German Manufacturing Hit by Crumbling Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Midst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders. Germany has been the 'zone's economic powerhouse in the past few quarters, continuing to see steady-to-strong GDP growth even as demand and output started to weaken, or even outright slide, in France, Italy, and Spain. However, falling demand from the neighbors is starting to take a toll. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Central European Currencies Running Out of Steam / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The three major currencies of central Europe have appreciated strongly against the euro so far this year, boosted to varying degrees by rising interest rates, strong economic growth, and positive investor sentiment - the latter buoyed by the final confirmation that Slovakia will adopt the euro next January. However, there are some preliminary signs that the region's strong growth rates are about to slow. Interest rates may be at their peak in Poland and Hungary, and a rate cut may be in the cards in the Czech Republic. All of which suggests that the Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint may also have peaked for now.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Euro-Zone Slowng Credit Growth and Money Supply / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's ECB data on credit and money supply showed that the pace of loan growth to the private sector is easing, coming in at 9.8% on the year in June, versus 10.5% in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Ireland: Economic Hangover as Retail Sales Contract / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's headline out of Ireland will add to fears that the decade-long economic boom is ending with a recession. The volume of retail sales fell 1.1% on the month and plunged 4.8% on the year in May, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the sharpest annual drop since 1987.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
ECB Increases Interest Rates as Trichet Warns of 'Exploding' Inflation / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold rose to $94 4 .80 in New York yesterday and was up $ 2.0 0 and silver closed at $18. 33 , up 13 cents.Gold has remained firm near 10 week highs on the surging oil price which reached a new record high today < $145.72 - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08>. The dollar is flat today after it's decline in value in recent days. Against the euro, the dollar looks set to fall through support at 1.60 in the coming days and 1.70 euro/dollar looks like a very real possibility by the end of September. Longer term the likelihood of a sharp long recession in the U.S. could well see the euro reach 1.80 or even 2.00 against the dollar (as sterling did to the surprise of many in recent years).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Global Recession Gathers Pace as Euro zone Manufacturing Contracts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global recession is picking up steam. The US is in contraction, U.K. Manufacturing Is In Contraction , and now Euro zone manufacturing activity is in contraction .
The euro zone's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, compiled by data and research group Markit, slid to 49.2 points in June, from 50.6 in May, up slightly from an initial estimate of 49.1.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 26, 2008
The Norwegian Krone as the Next Reserve Currency? / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Today, the Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 5.75%. That puts the Norges Bank's policy rate 293 basis points over the May year-over-year CPI inflation rate on a harmonized basis (see Chart). Notice that the Norges Bank was raising its policy rate in the first half of 2007 as the inflation rate was falling. The Norges Bank is offering savers an "honest" return on their funds. Isn't this what you would look for in a reserve currency's central bank?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
European Politicians Living in Ivory Towers Confuse Stagflation with Stability / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
Just because we have been favoring the euro over the U.S. dollar in recent years doesn't mean we believe everything is perfect in Europe. The rejection of Irish voters of the latest attempt by the European Union (E.U.) to streamline its decision processes highlights a fundamental weakness: the inability of European politicians to communicate with its citizens. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Irish Say NO to European Super State / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
On Friday, Ireland delivered a knockout punch to European elites and corporatists and shattered their plan for an EU Superstate. The so-called Lisbon Treaty was nothing more than a repackaging of the European Constitution that was defeated by French and Dutch voters in 2005. The treaty was loaded with the typical "democratic" gobbledygook to conceal the vicious neoliberal policies at its heart. If it had passed, the treaty would have paved the way for greater privatization of public services, diminished workers rights, less state control over trade policies and civil liberties, and an aggressive plan to militarize Europe.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Irish "No Vote" Plunges EU Into Crisis / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The euro dipped Friday as news broke that Ireland's voters rejected the EU Lisbon Treaty in yesterday's national referendum. Although the Treaty's fate has no direct economic impact on the EU, the resulting uncertainty will add to market anxiety over more pressing issues like rising inflation, oil price protests, and looming recessions in Spain and even Ireland.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
ECB Signals Hawkish Tone on European Interest Rates as Inflation Soar / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its refi rate at 4.0% again last Thursday. What was not expected was the hawkish tone of the subsequent statement and the press briefing from President Trichet. He noted that the Governing Council had a "deep discussion" (trans: "fierce debate"?) and remains "in a state of heightened alertness." Some members apparently wanted a rate hike this month but the consensus was to hold. The President then noted that the Council may decide to make "a small hike" at the July 3 meeting in order to anchor inflation expectations. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Eurozone Economy Heading for Hard Landing- Economic Forecast 2008 / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Economic reality will likely prove forecasts of major international institutions about Europe's 2008 growth prospects wrong. So, let us first see what they think; then we will see what I think and why.
A number of major institutions have provided their 2008 Eurozone economic forecast. Interestingly, many of them just recently (December 2007) revised down their forecasts. Here is a quick survey: 2.1% by IMF – revised its 2008 growth forecast for the Eurozone down from 2.5%; 1.9% by OECD; 2.0% by ECB, the midpoint of their range, down from previous midpoint of 2.3%; 2.0% by EU Commission; 1.8% by ING Financial Markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
EuroZone Runaway Credit Inflation Feeds Gold Euro's Bull Market / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Who suffers most from inflation? Who suffers most from rising prices? It's the poor, not the rich. The rich can protect themselves from inflation. Poor people can't..." - Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank (ECB)
THE FINANCIAL TIMES just chose Jean-Claude Trichet – head of the European Central Bank (ECB) – as its "Person of the Year, 2007".
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
ECB Breaks US Dollar's Neck on Euro-zone Interest Rates Statements / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Yesterday, December 6, 2007, the ECB's Trichet announced that, while currently holding steady at 4.00 percent, he is willing to raise the euro's equivalent of the US federal funds rate in a heartbeat if euro-zone price inflation continues to rise next year.
EU zone inflation is widely expected to reach 2.5 percent next year, well above the ECB's tolerance level of around 2.00 percent.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
ECB Will Hike Interest Rates In June But Second-Half Policy Outlook Is Still Unclear / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its Refi rate unchanged at 3.75% this morning, but signaled that it expects a rate hike at the June 6 meeting. Trichet stated that "strong vigilance is of the essence in order to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize."Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 30, 2007
Sweden's Interest Rates Expected to Rise Faster than Expected / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the Riksbank today left its key repo rate at 3.25% and struck the same relativelydovish tone that it adopted after February's 25bp rate hike. The bank once again noted that, "over the coming months the repo rate will need to be raised by 0.25 percentage point ...
After that it will probably be possible to pause before making a further increase." The bank published its rate path forecast for the first time in February, indicating that it expected the repo rate to be at 3.5% by the end of this year, nudging upward to average 3.6% in Q1 2008 and 3.7% in Q1 2009. However, we think the path of tightening will end up being a little steeper.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Robust German and Still-Firm Euro-zone Economic Growth Add Up To June ECB Interest Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
After faltering a little in January and February, German business morale recovered smartly this month, with the Ifo business sentiment index rising to 107.7 from 107.0 the month before. The current conditions index recovered to 112.4 from 111.6 while the business expectations index rose back to 103.2 from 102.6 the month before. All told, German businesses appear to be recovering more quickly than expected from the three percentage point hike in the VAT rate that took effect at the start of the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 08, 2007
ECB expected to Raise Interest rates to 3.75%, BOE to Keep UK rates on Hold at 5.25% / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Sarah_Jones
The Euro rallied in the lead up to this months European Central Bank decision, where it is widely expected that European Interest Rates will be raised to 3.75% to curb wage inflation, especially in Germany.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Hungary Problems - The Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Phillipa_Green
The violent demonstrations continue on the streets, in response to the recording of the Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany admitting to lieing to the public in the run up to the last election on the dire condition of the hungarian economy.
In the 1990s Hungary was shown as a textbook example of a transition economy.
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