Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Ghost of John Maynard Keynes- Comments on Economic and Financial Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: William_R_Thomson
1/What is your view of how long the financial system crisis will continue and how much deeper it will it get?
One can only hazard a guess by looking at other experiences with banking crises. Japan took about 5 years from the time it started to recapitalize its banks. Sweden and Thailand took a little less time but none were V shaped recoveries. There is a far greater urgency to efforts now in the US and Europe after a year of dithering and denial but these are still early days and the scale being global is larger and we have the unprecedented scale of the derivative problem. It could still spiral out of control requiring the whole banking sector to be taken into public ownership, but more likely we will have an extended period of recession and subnormal growth covering much of the Obama presidency – assuming he wins.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
US Faces Recession Despite Bernanke's Stimulus Package / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Shvartsman
I don't want to start off this week's posts with the usual comparisons of our current economic climate to the Great Depression, but we do have some news out acknowledging the onset of a notable US recession. From FT, "US faces worst recession in 26 years" :
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Monday, October 20, 2008
U.S. Container Shipping Slump Follows Baltic Dry Shipping Index Collapse / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Container shipping stats at the Ports of Long Beach, LA, and Portland are all down. This is consistent with the Collapse of the Baltic Dry Shipping Index . Inbound container stats year to date are down 9.0% year to date at LA, 10.8% at Long Beach, and 9.9% at Portland. This does not portend well for expected consumer demand headed into the all important Christmas season.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
U.S. States Face Tax Shortfalls, Frugality To Hit Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Los Angeles Times is reporting States face new budget shortfalls .The moribund economy is drying up tax revenues more dramatically than expected, forcing 22 states, including California, to confront growing budget gaps. Some states have already eliminated jobs and services -- and more cuts are likely.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come
Mike Larson writes: I invest prudently to help ensure the future financial well-being of my wife and two daughters. And Martin, who visited us recently, shares the same philosophy.
But when future history books are written on the twenty-first century, they will probably show that this time — right now — was the most dangerous for investors in decades.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 20-24) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Leading U.S. Economic Indicators Hit 33 Year Lows / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Economic Cycle Research Institute ECRI reports Weekly Leading Index Growth at 33-yr Low .
A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its worst level in 6 years and its annualized growth rate had its biggest weekly decline in almost four decades to hit a fresh 33-year low, a search group said on Friday.
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Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Financial and Economic Blue Screen of Death / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
The Psyche of the American Consumer - The Consumer Weakens
- The Paradox of Thrift
- An Economic Blue Screen Of Death
- Those Wild And Crazy Analysts
This week I am in California giving two speeches to the Financial Planning Associations of San Diego and Orange County. This and next week's letters will be the broad outline of the speech. We will look at how the retreat of the American consumer will affect the stock market. Has the recent drop (can we say crash, gentle reader?) in stock market valuations given us an opportunity to find value? We look at some very powerful evidence that suggests that may be so. Then we look at the counter to that view. Are we at the bottom, or is there more pain? And given the current state of affairs, how should we then invest? Where do we put our money to work when the dust settles, as it surely will.
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Friday, October 17, 2008
Paper Money Printing and Inflation, a Lesson From History / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Adrian_Ash
Paper Money Printing and Inflation, a Lesson From History
"You can't blame the king of Persia for printing up money no one could trust. His neighbors in China were doing the same, after all, and with the same inevitable consequences, too..."
Friday, October 17, 2008
Current Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Peter_Schiff
The current stock market crash has spurred a vital national debate about the causes and catalysts of the Great Depression. The dominant school of thought believes that the stubborn refusal of then president Hebert Hoover to intervene after the stock market crash of 1929, and his preference for free market solutions, led directly to the ensuing decade-long catastrophe. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Deflation Scare the Perfect Camouflage for Inflationary Money Printing / Economics / Stagflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is said the market can sniff out prospective problems and price itself accordingly. If so, then someone needs to get this dog some nasal spray, lickedy-split! The deflation scare currently hovering over the entire market, particularly in the metals and commodities sectors, has been brutal. But the key question today is whether this “scare” will evolve into a genuine deflation threat to the US and the world? Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Reduced Gasoline Prices Provide Economic Relief, But May Not Change Consumer Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Gasoline prices have seen a steep decline over the past three months. Since hitting a peak on July 20, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline has declined 52 cents, which should inject approximately $120 to $130 billion into the pocketbooks of consumers, with more expected on the way.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
U.S. Worsening Economic Outlook / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_J_Panzner
This morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced that its general economic index for October fell from 3.8 in September to a much worse-than-forecast minus 37.5, the lowest level in nearly two decades. That follows yesterday's news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index declined to a record low of minus 24.6, also below expectations. Together with another regularly updated index, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing sector activity survey (October data has not yet been released), these indicators seem to make it clear that the economic outlook remains bleak. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
U.S. Economy Still on Life Support / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Browne
On Monday October 13th , the Dow took the fifth biggest upward leap (in percentage terms) in its history and, most notably, since the 1930's. It appeared that Paulson and his fellow G-7 finance ministers had solved the credit crisis. Despite the fact that G-7 taxpayers will be stuck with $3.5 trillion of liabilities to support their governments' bailout plans, the stock markets nevertheless bustled with euphoria. The next day, reality dawned once again, and all markets closed down. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Credit Crisis Bailouts Will Prevent Recession But Not Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Hans_Wagner
The rescue plan is now law. You might be wondering how this $700 (actually $850 billion) rescue plan will help improve the economy and help you beat the market. The credit markets remain tight and they are having repercussions across the US economy and throughout the world. Now that the government has arrived to help, will it work? Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Central Banks Fail to Solve Credit Crisis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Christopher_Laird
Depression on the way - A few weeks ago, I mentioned that the central banks had put up collectively $3 trillion worth of stimulus/backing to financial markets. I also noticed that the big bailouts had about only a one day boost to the financial markets till they did a thumbs down. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Baltic Dry Shipping Collapse Sign of Consumer Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index covers dry bulk shipping rates and some view it as a proxy for general economic health. The index continues to collapse. Baltic Dry Index
Notice that the indicator is back at levels not seen since 2005 and is below levels seen in 2004.
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
UK Unemployment Soars by 10%, Forecast to Rise to 2.5 million / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK unemployment as measured by the labour market survey surged to 1.79 million, up 164,000 for the quarter to July 2008, which clearly does not take into account the economic meltdown since August 08, nor the subsequent financial sector crash that witnessed bank after bank go bust and falling into the arms of the state or state sponsored rescue packages both of which are resulting in huge job losses in the financial sector. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The U.S. Housing Market Economic Double Negative Feedback Loop / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Andrew_Butter
Perhaps the time for self-delusion is passed. The grand new plan, just replaced the $700 billion plan, that replaced the $80 billion plan to bail out AIG, that replaced the Bear Stearns bailout which was just pocket change.
Forgive me for being skittish but it seems like every time you blink the number goes up by a factor of ten. The way it looks now is that combined USA , Europe and UK , the damage could easily be $7 trillion.
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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
US Economic Data and Events for October 15th, 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Day In Review:
• US announces $250bln plan to rescue banking system and FDIC stated it would fully guarantee newly issued, senor unsecured debt from select banks
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