Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, March 03, 2022
America’s Trade Deficit: An Enormous Concern / Economics / US Economy
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Another milestone (or more accurately millstone) was recently passed by the U.S. economy as the January trade deficit surged to an all-time record high of $107.6 billion, up some $26 billion from December’s $80.7 billion imbalance.*
Like the gigantic federal budget deficit, the trade imbalance is no longer talked about by the financial press. There has been little criticism of President Biden on either matter nor are Administration officials questioned about how things can be reversed. In fact, some commentators bizarrely contend that trade deficits show how robust an economy actually is!
The trade deficit was supposed to be alleviated by former President Trump who vowed throughout the 2016 campaign that he would rectify the situation and repeatedly ridiculed U.S. trade negotiators for their lack of financial acumen. He touted that his “friendship” with world leaders, most notably Chinese President Xi Jinping, would result in favorable trade deals for the country.
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Monday, February 28, 2022
White House Now Blames Its Inflation on “Defending Freedom” / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Rising geopolitical and inflation risks brought heightened volatility to markets this week.
Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine is being described as the worst attack on a European nation’s sovereignty since World War II.
In response, the Biden administration announced a new round of economic sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s government. The sanctions seek to economically isolate Russia and restrict its ability to market its products in the global economy.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
Energy Shock: Ukraine Crisis to Push Inflation Higher / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse.
Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – up 75 cents from a year ago. Some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon.
Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher. Crude oil futures jumped to over $100 per barrel ahead of the U.S. market open on Thursday morning.
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Thursday, February 24, 2022
UK Inflation at 30-year high / Economics / Inflation
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
The rate of inflation in the UK is at its highest point for 30 years, according to recent government figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation had risen to 5.5% for January 2022. Not since March 1992 (7.1%) have levels been this high and economists predict it could even eclipse that benchmark by April.
All of which is concerning news for the average consumer, but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured and what is causing it? Can the living wage keep up? And what are the potential consequences of such an increase? Read on to find out more.
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Global Economic Recovery challenges amid new data on lingering pandemics / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
There is a common denominator between the Chinese holiday season and the COVID fight. That’s the effort to recover the pre-pandemic demand even amid new global waves of variants. There are lessons, too.Around the world retailers aspire to reinforce sales during major holidays, which have a “multiplier effect” on revenue generation. Such efforts have greater impact when authorities implement additional policy measures to foster consumption.
With the new COVID-19 flare-ups in several cities, including Omicron infections in several Chinese cities, the country’s top economic planner, the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) took measures to increase holiday spending and boost the economy during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, along with the Valentine’s Day.
What was the outcome?
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Monday, February 21, 2022
US stagflation overshadows China’s Economic recovery and global prospects / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the IMF downgraded global growth prospects, due to projected slowdowns in the US and China. Negative prospects could be overcome with right policies, such as trade cooperation.Recently, the International Monetary Fund projected that global growth rate will slow to 4.4% in 2022. In the dire international landscape, global recovery has remained elusive dream since 2017, when US trade wars derailed the impending expansion. Today, unwarranted geopolitics escalate tensions.
Worse, the failure to roll out vaccines could knock another $1.5 trillion from incomes across the South, according to UNCTAD report last fall.
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Tuesday, February 15, 2022
US Price Inflation Rates Shoot Above the 1980 Peak / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Americans get fed a lot of BS when it comes to price inflation. Prices in the U.S. are rising faster than they were in the late 1970s when gasoline shortages triggered an economic crisis.
Today, supply chain disruptions and exploding prices are also nearing crisis levels.
Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic rise in dishonesty amongst politicians, bankers, and the corporate press on this subject. They hide the truth on inflation for a couple of reasons.
Wednesday, January 19, 2022
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 / Economics / Stagflation
By: Dan_Steinbock
Until recently, the US Fed ignored America’s soaring inflation. Due to its belated response, the consequent risks will penalize the ailing global recovery.In November, U.S. inflation surged to near 40-year high, at 6.8%. Only days later, the Fed indicated it would end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, thus paving the way for interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.
It had been one of the worst inflation calls in the Fed’s history. One that will contribute to new uncertainty in the United States. Nor will it spare the rest of the world, including the world’s most dynamic region - Asia.
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Thursday, December 30, 2021
2022 – The Year of (Gold) Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
High inflation won’t go away in 2022. Good for gold. However, it is likely to continue to climb and reach its peak. That sounds a bit worse for gold.If 2021 was tough for you, I don’t recommend reading Nostradamus’ predictions for the next year. This famous French astrologer saw inflation, hunger, and much more coming in 2022:
So high the price of wheat,
That man is stirred
His fellow man to eat in his despair
Yuk! So, life is about to get a little more complicated: we must now avoid becoming infected and being eaten by our fellow citizens! If you are interested in how cannibalism will affect the gold market, I’m afraid that I don’t have adequate data. Anyway, if you end up in the pot together with vegetables and your colleagues, gold’s performance probably won’t be your top priority.
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Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Inflation Torpedoes Biden Agenda – Will It Next Wreck Financial Markets? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden’s so-called “Build Back Better” agenda was dealt a likely fatal blow on Sunday. Moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced that he would oppose his party’s massive $2 trillion spending bill.
That effectively kills it in its current form.
Chief among Senator Manchin’s reasons for opposing the Biden administration’s far-reaching spending scheme is inflation.
Monday, December 20, 2021
Consumer Price Index (Less Food & Energy) Climbs To Highest Levels Since 2007-08 / Economics / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of the current US and global market trends; higher inflationary trends and a potentially trapped US Federal Reserve.
Be sure to sign up for our free market trend analysis and signals now so you don’t miss our next special report!
I will share more data/charts, and my proprietary US economy/Fed modeling systems results in Part III. My objective is to share my belief that the US Federal Reserve still has room to adjust interest rates (within reason) and how the US/global economy is starting to trend into the highest inflationary levels since 1975~1985. These levels could frighten traders/investors, but given the global economic constraints of the COVID lock-downs, I consider the current economic trends a symptom of the stimulus/solution – not necessarily an inherent economic trend. Allow me to explain my thinking in more detail.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this analysis I explain why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.
They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.
Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.
He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”
That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
The INFLATION MEGA-TREND - Ripples of Deflation on an Ocean of Inflation! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So called transitory US inflation surged to 5.4% for September remaining sticky at above 5% with little signs of moderation and thus likely to prompt the Fed to taper in the near future to signal intentions to bring inflation down to 2% in 2 years time as their 'transitory' propaganda smoke screen is wearing thin. Of course real US inflation in is at least double official fake CPI. Whilst the real rate of inflation in the UK is even worse, likely 3 to 4 times official CPI i.e. about 15% to 20%.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.
The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: EWI
Hi reader,
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.
But the opposite is true.
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Saturday, November 13, 2021
China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.
On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.
In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.
Saturday, October 30, 2021
Central Planners Clinging to Hope That Inflation Is “Transitory” / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
As trading closes out for October ahead of Halloween, the specter of inflation is haunting markets.
While some investors still cling to the hope that it will be transitory, a growing number are now worried that pricing pressures and even shortages will intensify heading into Christmas – and possibly get worse in 2022. Discussions of the term “hyperinflation” have even made the rounds on social media following a warning from Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey.
More on that in a bit. But first, let’s review this week’s price action in precious metals markets.
Gold over the past few trading days has been oscillating around the $1,800 level. Prices currently come in at $1,783 an ounce to register a weekly decline of 0.9%.
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