Category: Emerging Markets
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, November 13, 2021
Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets
Hi reader,
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.
But the opposite is true.
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Friday, November 12, 2021
How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"
A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.
And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:
New investors are jumping into the market
So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.
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Thursday, August 20, 2020
A Huge Opportunity For Emerging Market Stock Investors In 2021 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Back in early February of 2020, I warned those willing to listen that “Emerging Markets Look Sick,” which was actually the title of my article.
In fact, when I posted this article in early February, I was looking for a bounce off the 42 support region in EEM, with a target back up in the 44/45 region, which was expected to be a short-able bounce. You can see this outlined in the chart I presented within that article.
As you can see, the EEM struck a low just below 42, and bounced back up to a high of 44.84. This set up the big decline of which I was warning, with an ideal target of the 1.00 extension on the chart in the 31 region.
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Thursday, May 21, 2020
An Eye-Opening Perspective: Emerging Markets and Epidemics / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
People across the entire planet remain very much aware of the COVID-19 health threat.
The global disruption associated with the pandemic far surpasses other major health scares in modern history.
Even so, you may recall 2009 news articles similar to this one from the New York Times (June 11, 2009):
It came as no surprise [on June 11, 2009] when the World Health Organization declares that the swine flu outbreak had become a pandemic.
The disease has reached 74 countries ... .
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Friday, January 31, 2020
Asian Stock Markets Analysis - China, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Hi Reader,
Asia stocks are extremely volatile right now. To help you take advantage of the big moves, our friends at Elliott Wave International have scrambled together a rare free week of their subscription services that cover Asia.
You can see what's going on -- what the waves are saying -- at no cost to you.
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Monday, November 11, 2019
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future / Economics / Emerging Markets
Two decades ago, the BRIC economies were projected to surpass the advanced G6 economies by the early 2030s. Today, the huge potential of the BRICs prevails, but the pace has slowed and country trajectories have diverged. China and India are on track, Brazil and Russia are not, thanks to geopolitics.In the early 2000s, Goldman Sachs projected that the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the BRICs – would surpass the major advanced economies by the early 2030s.
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Monday, September 24, 2018
How the US Dollar Penalizes Emerging Asia / Economics / Emerging Markets
Foreign exchange rates in emerging markets have suffered significant damage against US dollar, including Asia’s high-growth economies (India, Indonesia, Philippines). Is the severity of the damage justified?Internationally, US dollar has been fueled by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, oil price increases, and the Trump administration’s trade wars.
Domestically, the worst foreign-exchange performers have been emerging economies - including Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, and Russia - that are vulnerable to rate normalization, exposed to Trump tariffs, major energy importers, or whose sovereign interests have conflicted with US geopolitics.
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Sunday, September 16, 2018
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Just saw a chart with the second quarter GDP results for the fastest growing countries in the world, and…Of course, emerging countries – largely Asia – dominated.
India topped at a whopping 8.2%, followed by waning China at 6.7%, Indonesia at 5.3%, and Turkey at 5.1%.
Other notable emerging countries were struggling, with Brazil at -1.2% and Argentina at -0.7%.
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
IS THE BRIC FUTURE ON TRACK - 10TH BRICS Summit at Critical Crossroads / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Even amid trade wars and eroding global growth prospects, the large emerging BRIC economies remain positioned to surpass the largest advanced economies in about 15 years.The 10th BRICS Summit will take place in Johannesburg, South Asia. Led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the international conference highlights the rising power of large emerging economies in the world economy.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Over the past 4+ months, many emerging markets have come under pressure as the global markets were roiled by the sudden and relatively deep market retracement in early February. For many, this downward price trend has been frightening and somewhat disastrous. Recently, though, something new appears to be on the horizon that may be the early signs of renewed life for many Latin American, South American and Indian markets – early signs of support and a potential bottom formation in the works.
Our researchers have been following the recent moves in these emerging market ETF for Brazil, Latin America, and India with great interest because we believe in finding opportunities when many others may not be looking for them. We believe these early warning stages of a market bottom could be an excellent time to “forward think” any possible price recovery that may occur in the near future and to prepare for any success opportunities that may arise. Heck, we are traders and if the opportunity exists for a decent profit with little risk, we’ll investigate it.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia. Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft. Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration. Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.
What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns. You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post. If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.
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Monday, May 21, 2018
Frontier Growth, Catching Up, Falling Behind and Extremely Falling Behind / Economics / Emerging Markets
The economic growth model a country chooses to implement is very important for its economic development. This is the challenge primarily faced by countries with developing economies which place the process of increasing their level of economic development as one of their main goals in order to advance to the category of countries with developed economies.
There are different models of economic growth: frontier growth, catching up, and falling behind.Frontier growth which is characteristic to countries (for example, the United States) which create qualitatively new products and new production based on new technologies.
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Saturday, March 10, 2018
J.P. Morgan’s Executive Director Shares Her Secret for Investing in Emerging Markets / Currencies / Emerging Markets
By Patrick Watson: At the Strategic Investment Conference 2018, Gabriela Santos, Executive Director at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, compared the potential of the US and international markets in terms of equity returns.
J.P. Morgan projects 5.5% annualized for US equities over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to return 6% and emerging markets (EM) around 8%. But that’s assuming today as a starting point.
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Monday, February 12, 2018
The Philippine Economic Dream Could Be Within the Reach / Economics / Emerging Markets
If the government’s focus remains on inclusive economic development, the Philippines could become a bright spot in the global landscape.Today, there is a huge gap between the Philippines as it is portrayed by many international observers and the country’s fundamental economic realities.
The Duterte win was the triumph of ordinary Filipinos. Accordingly, there is only one way for the government to succeed. It must deliver the country’s economic promise.
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Monday, January 08, 2018
If You Hold VT Or Any Other Global ETF, You’ve Put All Your Eggs In One Basket / Companies / Emerging Markets
BY OLIVIER GARRET : The growth of ETFs since the Global Financial Crisis has been staggering.
Total ETF assets under management is now approaching US $5 trillion, a 400% increase from the $1 trillion held in 2009.
Investors now have access to over 7,000 ETF/ETP products. To put that number in perspective, there are only 2,400 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Friday, October 13, 2017
The Struggle for Bolivia Is About to Begin / Politics / Emerging Markets
While middle class Bolivians are demonstrating against the incumbent president’s bid to extend term limits, the country is thriving after a decade of progress under Evo Morales.Recently, thousands of Bolivians took part in protests in San Francisco square in La Paz demonstrating against President Evo Morales’ bid to extend term limits.
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Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Charts Show Why Emerging Markets Will Be an Essential Part of Your Portfolio Going Forward / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : A major theme at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference was the shift in economic power from developed markets to emerging markets (EMs).
For example, in 1960, the combined GDP of China and India made up only 5% of global GDP; today, it’s 30%.
In 1970, the G7 bloc made up half of global trade; now it makes up just 30%. It’s no wonder emerging markets are growing at almost three times the rate as the G7.
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Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Louis Gave: Emerging Markets And Europe Will Outperform The US In The Next Decade / Economics / Emerging Markets
By Stephen McBride : “The key to successful investing is not picking winners, it’s avoiding losers…” Louis Gave, the head of asset management at Gavekal Research, explains his investment philosophy at Mauldin Economics’ 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
Emerging Markets Very Bullish, Close To Major Breakout / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Emerging markets look increasingly bullish with each passing day. It was only three weeks ago that emerging markets were bullish enough to call for an official breakout. With that, our emerging markets forecast for 2017 proves to be accurate, as well as our call that emerging markets would become the investment of 2017.
As said, emerging markets look more bullish with the day. And they are only 6 percent away from a major event: a secular breakout. If that materializes, it would be MAJOR news, and, guess what, financial media will not be talking about it!
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Monday, April 03, 2017
Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) Overall Bullish Characteristics Remain / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Following a breakout from a relatively large Double Bottom trend reversal pattern in late-November (breakout above 6,875.69) of last year the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) pulled back and has been consolidating around support near the top of the Double Bottom and the 200-day exponential moving average (ema).
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Sunday, April 02, 2017
Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) Increasing Chance of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) hit a high of 40.23 two weeks and has since begun to show signs that it may be starting a correction. At that high EEM had advanced 12.62 or 45.71% off the 27.61 bottom reached in January 2016. A move down to at least the uptrend line is looking likely now before this ETF is ready to make another run higher, if it is to do so.
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Friday, March 31, 2017
3 Maps That Explain Why South America Is Politically Isolated / Politics / Emerging Markets
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : What makes South America stand out is that it looks like a large island. Oceans split it from others by great lengths.
Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean make a divide between South America and the US. Plus, it is split by the Amazon rainforest and Andes Mountains to form two “islands.”
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Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Hong Kong, Signapore, and India Emerging Stocks Bull Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
With the recent resurgence in the US indices, and the potential new leg up in the 2009 bull market, took a look at the foreign indices we track. The objective was to find indices that had dramatic selloffs during 2015-2016, and appear to have completed bear markets. Of the twenty indices we track three in particular look the best longer term.
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Saturday, January 23, 2016
Emerging Markets Running Scared with Capital Controls / Economics / Emerging Markets
This has not been a good year for emerging markets. Since many of the emerging economies are commodity-reliant (mainly crude oil), the oil price plunge has also crashed their currencies, which prompted money fear and flight.
WSJ quoted the Institute of International Finance that emerging markets suffered record net outflows of $732 billion in 2015, with China accounting for the bulk of that. The Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Colombian peso all hit record lows against the dollar. Overall, emerging-market currencies fell 3% in the first two weeks of 2016.
Thursday, January 07, 2016
Emerging Market Currencies Hit the Skids / Economics / Emerging Markets
Investors, equities traders and global analysts were shocked when the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index opened to a 7% decline on Monday, 4 January 2015. That alarm bells sounded and markets were shut down is testament to the precarious predicament of Chinese equities. As the world's second largest economy, China weakness has a devastating effect on the fortunes of developing countries and developed countries alike. Such was the negative sentiment around the sharp declines in Chinese equities, mutual funds and foreign funds (with an emphasis on Asian stocks), that global bourses also moved south. The situation is being compounded by sharp declines in oil prices, with oil futures for February setting fresh new lows.
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Sunday, December 27, 2015
Yet Another Reason To Invest in Vietnam and Pakistan / Economics / Emerging Markets
Dylan Waller writes: Vietnam and Pakistan’s automotive industries are both poised for substantial growth, and consequently present a flurry of investment opportunities. Both countries have been positive outliers in Asia, due to superior stock market performance, higher economic growth, and also due to the relatively lower FX risks. As both countries begin their transition to emerging markets, the automotive industry in particular represents a strategic outlet for investors to profit from the superior investment landscape that is present in both countries.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
How to Profit from the End of the Longest Running War in the Americas / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By Nick Giambruno
Drug cartels. Kidnappings. Assassinations. A war for billions in cocaine profits. Leftist guerrillas looking for a piece of the action.
If you’ve seen a movie with this stuff in it, there’s a good chance it was set in Colombia.
Popular culture has depicted Colombia this way for decades. The media has pounded this image into the public’s consciousness. So it’s no surprise most people think of the country as a scary, dangerous place.
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Monday, November 16, 2015
BRICS? No, CRISIS / Economics / Emerging Markets
On Monday, October 23, 2015, the Iranian news agency Tasnim cited its Deputy Minister of Economic Development who announced that Iran would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). The NDB was officially created by the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa - in July of this year, with an initial capitalization of $100 billion. Iran’s participation would allow it, or any other participating country, to develop closer economic, trade and international policy ties with the BRICS nations, and utilize NDB funds for economic development.
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Monday, August 17, 2015
Bullish Breakout of Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QE) / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The Qatar Exchange Index (QE) is now in the early stages of a bullish breakout of a descending wedge pattern as seen on the enclosed chart. This potential bullish move was first discussed in our analysis from August 9, and can be reviewed here. The breakout occurred today, Sunday, as the index rallied above the prior swing high of 11,836.8, above the top downtrend line identifying the wedge, and to a 3-week high.
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Monday, August 10, 2015
Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QE) Bullish Wedge Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
A bullish wedge formation is setting up in the chart of the Qatar Exchange Index (QE). Taking into account the pattern to date, a breakout is confirmed on a move above 12,043.7. However, there could be a lower signal develop as the pattern may need a little while longer to progress. At this point an aggressive signal would be given on a move above Wednesday’s high at 11,836.8.
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Thursday, July 23, 2015
Commodities Damage to BRICs Economic Cushion / Economics / Emerging Markets
Aside from $ trillions in monetary stimulus from the world's major central banks, a major source to the recovery from the 2008-9 global financial crisis emerged from the BRICs economies. The dependence on commodities exports from Brazil, Russia and China proved instrumental in these economies' rapid comeback thanks to the cushion from rapid gains in agricultural and energy prices from 2002 to 2008. But now that agricultural commodities have crashed, metals crumbled and energy plummeted, what becomes of the BRICs engine to the world economy?
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Thursday, June 04, 2015
Asian Markets Are Flashing Strong "Buy" Signals / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor offers you his forecasts for long-term investment opportunities
In this informative new interview, Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor, Mark Galasiewski, tells you about three new investment opportunities in the region.
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Saturday, May 23, 2015
Venezuela: No Rule of Law, Bad Money / Economics / Emerging Markets
The rule of law subjects the State to a fixed set of rules that limits the scope of its coercive powers. Individuals and their property are protected from the arbitrary, ad hoc actions of the State and other individuals. In consequence, individuals can plan their activities within the confines of known, fixed “rules of the game.” This allows people to pursue their personal ends, as long as their actions do not infringe on the broadly-defined property rights of their fellow citizens.
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Friday, March 27, 2015
Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism / Economics / Emerging Markets
Antony P. Mueller writes: All Keynesian roads lead to stagflation. That was the case in Europe and in the United States in the 1970s when both stagnation and inflation hit the economies at the same time. Currently, this is the case in Brazil.
Since coming into power in 2003, the Brazilian labor government has religiously implemented the economic policy doctrine of growth by spending. Now, the country has fallen into stagnation with a recession looming while inflation is on the rise. All economic indicators flash red lights: from economic growth to inflation and the exchange rate, from productivity to investment and industrial production.
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Sunday, February 22, 2015
Kazakhstan holding hands with Russia, Braces up for Economic Crisis / Economics / Emerging Markets
The collapse of oil prices that has already eaten much of the income of both Russian and American corporations has reached Kazakhstan. The economic crisis is looming over another member of the Customs Union. Is there a threat to the Customs Union during the period of the economic hardship? What does the Kazakh administration do to avoid the crisis?
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Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Measuring Misery in Latin America 2014: More Dollarization, Please / Politics / Emerging Markets
In my misery index, I calculate a ranking for all countries where suitable data exist. My misery index — a simple sum of inflation, lending rates, and unemployment rates, minus year-on-year per capita GDP growth — is used to construct a ranking for 108 countries. The table below is a sub-index of all Latin American countries presented in the world misery index.
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Tuesday, October 28, 2014
China and India Changing the Global Marketplace / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
China is looking at investing in infrastructure in India. That’s the best idea I’ve heard in a long time.
China has overinvested — like 12 to 15 years of future urban migration out — with 27% of home vacancies in cities. India has underinvested in everything. The roads are terrible, electricity is nearly non-existent in rural areas and it’s shoddy at best in urban sectors. Water and sewer services are not up to snuff and there are slums everywhere.
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Monday, October 27, 2014
A Scary Story for Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The consequences of the coming bull market in the US dollar, which I’ve been predicting for a number of years, go far beyond suppression of commodity prices (which in general is a good thing for consumers – but could at some point threaten the US shale-oil boom). The all-too-predictable effects of a rising dollar on emerging markets that have been propped up by hot inflows and the dollar carry trade will spread far beyond the emerging markets themselves. This is another key aspect of the not-so-coincidental consequences that we will be exploring in our series on what I feel is a sea change in the global economic environment.
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Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Emerging Markets Are Set Up for a Crisis, What’s on Your Radar Screen? / Economics / Emerging Markets
Toward the end of every week I begin to ponder what I should write about in the next Thoughts from the Frontline. Much of my week is spent in front of my iPad or computer, consuming as much generally random information as time and the ebb and flow of life will allow. I cannot remember a time in my life after I realized you could read and learn new things that that particular addiction has not been my constant companion.
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Friday, August 22, 2014
A World Economy Made of BRICS? / Economics / Emerging Markets
Rodney Johnson writes: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) recently announced the formation of a Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), which will provide loans to member countries if their foreign exchange reserves run dangerously low.
This fund is supposed to show the world that the BRICS can survive without the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its main patron, the U.S., and that countries are taking concrete steps to shake their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
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Friday, July 18, 2014
Central Banks and The Dollar Hitting the BRICS / Politics / Emerging Markets
“We are pleased to announce the signing of the Treaty for the establishment of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) with an initial size of US $100 billion. This arrangement will have a positive precautionary effect, help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements.... The Agreement is a framework for the provision of liquidity through currency swaps in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures.”Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2014
Investing in Undervalued Country Just Starting Stocks Bull Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Research proves that undervalued equity markets achieve higher future returns over longer term investment horizons.
Studies show that investing in markets which have just been through a bear market and their valuations are low is one of the best ways to grow your investment capital.
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Saturday, May 10, 2014
China Economy Needs Serious Reform; Russia's Heading in a Bad Direction / Economics / Emerging Markets
On this week's "Political Capital with Al Hunt," airing tonight at 9:00PM/ET, Bloomberg Television anchor and Bloomberg View columnist Al Hunt, interviews United States Department of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. Sec. Lew said to Hunt, China must avoid postponing long-term economic measures, "they obviously have to worry about their short-term economic situation. What they can't do is treat the long-term reforms as something they can just put off. They need to be serious about it."
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Monday, May 05, 2014
The Emerging Market Game Changer Is Here / Economics / Emerging Markets
Peter Krauth writes: The group of five nations - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, otherwise known as the BRICS - is making some intriguing financial, economic, and political moves.
They're committing tens of billions of dollars each to organize their own versions of an IMF and World Bank.
Many observers thought the BRICS nations would encounter too many obstacles to collaborate effectively.
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Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Emerging Markets’ investing v Developed Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
When we talk of Emerging Markets (EMs) we mean the likes of Brazil, Russia, India, China etc (AKA The BRICs).
The Developed Markets (DMs) are the Anglo Saxon countries and Japan, Germany, France etc.
Over the last 6-9 months there has been relentless negative publicity, in the media, about BRICs. Article after article in the press, commentary after commentary on radio, piece after piece on TV saying the same thing: “Steer clear of EMs. They will lose you vast amounts of money. Get out and never come back.”
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Sunday, March 16, 2014
Fiat Money and Business Cycles in Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets
Roger McKinney writes: After the stock market collapse of 2008 and a decline of 3.4 percent for U.S. GDP in 2009, investors rushed to stash funds in emerging markets (EM) where economies were growing at a 3.1 percent annual rate. But the US stock market fell in January of this year largely due to financial trouble in emerging markets. The economies of EM nations, such as, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Thailand, and China, have deteriorated in part because of the withdrawal of US dollar investments from them. Here is a chart from the Institute for International Finance (IIF)[1] showing the capital flows to EM nations:
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Emerging Markets Crisis - Anatomy of International Capital Flows / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The international capital flows from advanced Western Economies to Emerging Markets is not a new phenomenon. Since the abandonment of the Bretton Woods, there has been an upward trend in international capital movements. Reasons are being the growth of international trade and the liberalization of the trade and current accounts in the industrial economies, from the 1940s till the 1970s. Such capital flows are recorded in the Capital Account in the Balance of Payment of a country.
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Friday, February 07, 2014
How to Profit from the Economic Turmoil in Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
John Paul Whitefoot writes: The long-expected hit to the emerging markets is finally upon us. The fact that the emerging markets are taking a beating isn’t a total surprise; on the other hand, everyone running for the exits is.
But as physics proves, for every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction—nothing can escape physics; not even Wall Street or the emerging markets.
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Thursday, February 06, 2014
Why Emerging Markets Are Heading for Falling Over the Cliff / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
In countries such as Turkey and Argentina a tighter stance implemented by central banks has set in motion an economic bust. In Turkey the central bank has raised the one week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent while in Argentina the 3-month Treasury bill rate climbed to 25.89 percent from 16 percent in early January. In Argentina an increase in rates took place once the central bank aggressively curbed its monetary pumping, while in Turkey the central bank raised its policy rate.
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Saturday, February 01, 2014
Emerging Markets, Interest Rates and QE Tapering / Interest-Rates / Emerging Markets
Thanks to the Fed's tapering, a wider public is becoming aware of currency instability in diverse economies, from Turkey to Argentina, and India to Indonesia. Indeed, on Tuesday night Turkey raised overnight interest rates by a whopping 4.5% to 12% in an attempt to stop a run on the lira.
Turkey has her own political problems, perhaps strong enough to knock the stuffing out of her currency on their own, and Argentina seems to be permanently fighting off hyperinflation. But it is a mistake to think that the idiosyncrasies of each currency are solely the cause of their downfall. The fact that these countries' currency problems are all happening at the same time tells us the common factor is currency itself.
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Thursday, January 30, 2014
Emerging Markets Crisis or Media Hysteria? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Courtesy of Doug Short: Emerging markets have been hemorrhaging this year and are now grabbing media attention. However, as the charts show, the decline in these markets and currencies has been taking place for some time now and is certainly not a sudden development. Question is: does the drop in these markets now present a real emerging threat to the rest of the globe, especially the stock markets of major developed economies? Let’s take a look…
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Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Is U.S. Fed Responsible for Emerging Markets Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
From the bully pulpits in São Paulo to the blogosphere in cyberspace, the Fed is blamed for the turmoil in Emerging Markets (EM). That’s a bit like blaming McDonald’s for obesity. Blaming others won’t fix the problems in EM economies, it won’t fix investors’ portfolios and it is an unlikely way to lose weight. Investors and policy makers need to wake up and realize that they are in charge of their own destiny. Let us explain:
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Saturday, October 12, 2013
Buy Emerging Markets, But Carefully / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Emerging markets were under pressure all summer from fears that the U.S. Fed would begin to taper back its QE stimulus. More recently, it was widely expected the battle in Washington over raising the debt-ceiling would add to the selling pressure.
However, charts reveal what a market is actually doing, not what people think it should be doing. And in reality, emerging markets in general have been rallying off an oversold condition beneath 20-week moving averages, even as the U.S. market was pulling back from its September peak on the new debt-ceiling worries.
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Monday, October 07, 2013
Investing in Frontier Markets Like Investing in China in 1980! / Companies / Emerging Markets
David Zeiler writes: An axiom of investing is that those who get in on great opportunities early make the most money.
Knowing how to invest in frontier markets gives you one of those great, rare opportunities. And it's early enough in the game that most of the profits are still well off into the future.
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Friday, September 13, 2013
How to Invest in Frontier Markets and Tap the World's Fastest Growth / Companies / Emerging Markets
David Zeiler writes: An axiom of investing is that those who get in on great opportunities early make the most money.
Knowing how to invest in frontier markets gives you one of those great, rare opportunities. And it's early enough in the game that most of the profits are still well off into the future.
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Monday, September 09, 2013
The Best Bargain in Global Stock Markets Today / Companies / Emerging Markets
Alexander Green writes: Every once in a while, every serious, long-term investor ought to stop, look around and ask himself (or herself), “What asset class can I invest in now that is unequivocally cheap?”
My answer today is emerging market stocks.
This may take many investors by surprise. After all, emerging markets equities, as a group, have plunged 16% this year vs. a 15% gain in the S&P 500. And mutual fund cash flow figures show that mom-and-pop investors are pulling money out in droves.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Bernanke Tells Emerging Markets to Stop Crying and Grow Up! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Bailouts appear to be the established substitute for sustainable policy. In that spirit, Brazil last week announced a $60 billion program to shore up its currency. India has been introducing capital controls. South Africa is considering currency intervention. Blamed is the Federal Reserve’s taper talk. But as critical as we have been of Fed policy in recent years, emerging markets should stop crying and consider embracing long overdue reforms. We discuss who may win this battle as currency wars continue to rage.
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Thursday, August 22, 2013
BRICS Currency Crisis Is Looming / Currencies / Emerging Markets
FORGET THE DYING DOLLAR
Federal Reserve taper-down is becoming almost certain, and with it higher interest rates. One direct result is a strengthening US dollar. The US trade deficit, notably due to fast-growing shale oil production trimming imports and sufficient shale gas output to support LNG export trade, is likely to go on shrinking, strengthening the dollar. The myth of an “always weakening dollar”, which was a reality for years, now has realworld Emerging economy rivals actively slumping towards national currency crises. This concerns major “BRIC's” economies – unlike the 1997-98 Asian NIC crisis.
Monday, July 08, 2013
Egypt Ousts Morsi: Another Sign of Emerging Market Woes / Politics / Emerging Markets
Garrett Baldwin writes: As widespread unrest spreads across Egypt after the ousting of President Morsi, investors need to be wary of a growing trend affecting broader emerging markets.
Much of the unrest around the world is caused by one thing: Uprisings against governments and their inabilities to provide basic services to citizens with rising income levels.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Three Ways Stock Investors Can Profit from the Fall of Emerging Markets / Companies / Emerging Markets
Moe Zulfiqar writes: The key stock indices have gained momentum to the upside since the beginning of the year. The most quoted indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up more than 12% and are bucking the trend.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2013
Fantastic Investor Ground Floor Opportunity / Companies / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Investors should be very excited.
Because it's only once in a very long time that investment watersheds like this happen and you can get some long-term positions at stunning bargains.
Last week Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru deepened their "Pacific Alliance" by removing tariffs on 90% of the trade between them, beginning July 1.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 08, 2013
A "New Chapter" for Turkey Emerging Markets? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Frank Holmes writes: In 2012, Turkey was the best performer among the emerging markets we track on our Periodic Table showing a decade of returns. All developing countries rose last year, but stocks in Turkey climbed an astounding 56 percent.
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Thursday, March 07, 2013
Two Emerging Markets Invstors Should Look At / Companies / Emerging Markets
Carl Delfeld writes: I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard this comment.
“Carl, it doesn’t really matter where in the world I invest, because markets always move together.”
Really?
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Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Why Investors Need to Look to the Emerging Markets for Growth / Economics / Emerging Markets
George Leong writes: The key to the global economy is a rise in consumer spending. My view is that the emerging markets will continue to be an excellent place to invest some capital, whether it’s the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) or the Southeast Asian “Little Tigers,” comprising Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. I’m bullish on this area of the world. My reasoning is that the newfound wealth and growing middle class in these markets will drive consumer spending and economic growth.
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Friday, December 07, 2012
"If I Could Put All My Money in Myanmar, I Would" / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Chris Mayer writes:
Friday, December 07, 2012
IMF Capital Controls Danger for Emerging Market Investors / Politics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: The IMF is up to no good again.
On Monday they released a new report on international capital flows which relaxed its opposition to exchange controls.
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Friday, November 30, 2012
Turkish Economy, Is Turkey Golden? / Economics / Emerging Markets
Recently, Moody’s Investors Service took some wind from Turkey’s sails, when it declined to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade. Moody’s cited external imbalances, along with slowing domestic growth, as factors in its decision. This move is in sharp contrast to the one Fitch made earlier this month, when it upgraded Turkey to investment grade. Moody’s decision not to upgrade Turkey, and its justification, left me somewhat underwhelmed – given how well the Turkish economy has done in recent years.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Emerging Stock Markets Forecast 2013: Forget the BRICs Buy These Markets Instead / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Savvy investors know there is far more to the markets than sitting on your hands worrying about the fiscal cliff.
Believe it or not the world doesn't revolve around the United States-or the Western world.
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Saturday, October 20, 2012
Remember The BRICs? / Economics / Emerging Markets
A now nicely mythologised theme for government-friendly, politically-correct good news suppliers such as The Economist or Financial Times, and related propaganda outlets, is that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) can still save us.
The term was coined by Goldman economist Jim O'Neill in November 2001, possibly to cheer us all up after the September 11th street theatre events staged in New York and Washington.
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Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Venezuela vs. Argentina, Which Will Run Out of Money First? / Politics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: After a surprisingly comfortable re-election, Venezuela has decided to stick with Hugo Chavez and all that comes with him.
That has prompted The Wall Street Journal and other pundits to forecast nothing less than economic doom for Venezuela in 2013.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
A Historic Investing Window of Opportunity In Mongolia Emerging Market / Commodities / Emerging Markets
Investor fears about mining stocks are misplaced, says James Passin, a hedge fund manager with New York-based Firebird Management, especially if those companies are mining in Mongolia. Firebird manages a portfolio of private equity funds that invest in Mongolia, one of the fastest growing economies with some of the most extensive, untapped resources in the world. The country is already home to the largest copper deposit and in this exclusive Gold Report interview, Passin explains why there is potential for dozens more similar finds.
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Saturday, July 14, 2012
Chile at an Economic Crossroads / Economics / Emerging Markets
Chile's accession to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010 was more than just a confirmation that they'd earned the right to join the world's top ranked economies. As the first South American country to be accepted into the OECD, it was also a symbolic affirmation of several decades worth of market-oriented reforms that transformed the country from an illiberal backwater to what is arguably one of Latin America's most stable and thriving nations. As a result, we feel that Chile qualifies as a good choice for international investment (for other investment locales that we have our eye on, see the latest Euro Pacific Global Investor Newsletter).
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Tuesday, May 08, 2012
Best Stock Market Performer This Year May Surprise Investors / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Since the stock market's gate opened at the beginning of 2012, emerging countries were off to a fast start. Stocks in Brazil, Colombia and India galloped to the lead, increasing more than 10 percent within the first few weeks of the year.
By the time the end of April came around, Colombia had sprinted to the lead, followed closely by Thailand and the Philippines. All increased more than 20 percent in the first four months of 2012.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2012
Investing in Emerging Markets with U.S. Traded ADRs / Companies / Emerging Markets
Larry D. Spears writes: For most of the past decade, the name of the game in worldwide equities has been investing in emerging markets.
If you don't believe me, just take a look at the performance of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca: EEM).
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 02, 2012
iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund At The Nexus Of Many Positive Trends in Malaysia / Companies / Emerging Markets
Malaysia traditionally has been viewed as a backward economy with a very defensive market. As a general rule, the Malaysian market tends to perform best relative to other Asian markets during periods of higher oil prices. That’s because Malaysia is a net exporter of oil.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Investing in Mongolia: Is It Time to Buy the World's Fastest Growing Economy? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: It is the world's fastest growing economy. It also may be the world's best kept secret.
Yet it is true. Mongolia is growing twice as fast as China and it's a market most investors know little about.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 27, 2012
Better Than Brazil: How to Invest in a Colombian Safe Haven / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: What's an investor to do?...
The Eurozone is about to collapse. The United States is struggling out of the deepest recession since World War II. And the IMF forecasts global growth will drop from 5% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2012.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
The Time is Right for Malaysia Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
I have been bullish on Malaysia long before the Southeast Asian nation became a fashionable investment destination. MY recommendation to buy into the country’s market via iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (NYSE:EWM) has generated a 36.5 percent return since I added the exchange-traded fund (ETF) to Global Investment Strategist’s Long-Term Holdings Portfolio at the end of 2009.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Mark Mobius Betting Millions on Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: You may be surprised to learn that some of the world's best investors are buying heavily right now - not because they think we've hit a bottom, or even the bottom, but because they're setting themselves up for the next big run.
Take Mark Mobius, for example.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 12, 2011
The BRICs Will Be Dead Weight in 2012, Invest in These Five Emerging Markets Instead / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Don't let the headlines fool you, there's lots of money to be made in global investing in 2012.
You're just going to have to be careful - more so than in years past - because right now the line drawn between successful markets and markets that are in danger of collapse is treacherously thin.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
These Two Emerging Markets Just Got A Lot More Enticing / Economics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: With U.S. economic growth on the wane and the European Union (EU) on the brink of collapse, there's never been a better time to increase your exposure to emerging markets.
And two fast-growing developing economies just became a lot more enticing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2011
Grow Your Wealth By Piggy-Backing on Emerging Markets / Companies / Emerging Markets
Larry D. Spears writes: It may be hard to believe that people are getting wealthier these days, but they are - just not in the United States.
No, the growth in personal wealth that we're seeing today is taking place in emerging markets half way around the globe - far removed from the employment and debt problems plaguing the West.
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Friday, September 30, 2011
Emerging Markets Provide Blueprint for Sustained Growth / Economics / Emerging Markets
David Zeiler writes: The United States should look at emerging markets for clues on how to sustain economic growth, according to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.
While the advanced economies of the world have stagnated since 2008, countries like China, Brazil and parts of Southeast Asia have enjoyed growth rates in the 7% to 9% range. Although several have slowed this year, they're still faring better than the economies of the United States and Europe.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 23, 2011
Freedom and Economic Growth in the Poorest Countries / Economics / Emerging Markets
Ken Zahringer writes: I just finished the first draft of a paper exploring some of the factors influencing economic growth in poor countries. I put together a sample of 37 countries that were at the bottom of the income scale in 1970 and traced their economic performance over the ensuing 40 years, trying to discern some of the reasons for the differences in growth among countries. One of the measures I used was the Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom (EF) Index. The following simple table speaks volumes about why some countries prosper and others don't. (The chart divisions allow class mobility.)
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Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Don't Miss Your Chance to Load Up on Cheap Emerging Market Stocks / Companies / Emerging Markets
Kerri Shannon writes: Thanks to the wild market swings of the past month, emerging-market stocks are trading at historic lows. That means investors have a rare opportunity to load up on stocks at valuations they wouldn't see under normal circumstances.
If we were talking about a sell-off that was based on fundamentals, that might be a warning sign. But what we've seen instead is the irrational dumping of companies that actually are poised to see their profits grow.
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Sunday, August 07, 2011
Emerging Markets Still Undervalued, Global Capital Shift Is Accelerating / Economics / Emerging Markets
As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week's e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can't rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can go to www.bloomberg.com and see everyone's remarks, including mine. It will be there somewhere, they promise me.
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Tuesday, August 02, 2011
Indonesia's Growing Global Geopolitical Significance / Politics / Emerging Markets
I am writing this from Indonesia. Actually, that is not altogether a fair statement. I am at the moment in Bali and just came from Jakarta. The two together do not come close to being Indonesia. Jakarta, the capital, is a vast city that is striking to me for its traffic. It takes an enormous amount of time to get anywhere in Jakarta. Like most cities, it was not built to accommodate cars, and the mix of cars with motor scooters results in perpetual gridlock. It is also a city of extraordinary dynamism. There is something happening on almost every street. And in the traffic jams, you have time to contemplate those streets in detail.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Singapore and Malaysia: Two Ways Investors Can Play the Region Between India and China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Carl Delfeld writes: Located south of China and east of India, the booming Southeast Asian region is oftentimes overlooked by even the most sophisticated investors. The free trade pact between the regional grouping (ASEAN) and China inked early this year has led to a jump in trade and investment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 04, 2011
Turkey Economy Now Growing Faster than China / Economics / Emerging Markets
While all the focus is usually on the big emerging (or emerged) markets such as those who are members of BRIC, there are quite a few other interesting stories out there such as Chile, Indonesia, and Turkey. [July 6, 2010: Turkey - Where East Meets West, and Prospects are Improving] While there are relatively limited choices to invest in these countries, they are certainly part of a secondary group of locales that are helping to boost the fortunes of U.S. multinationals.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 09, 2011
2011 Has Not Been Kind to BRIC Nation Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
While the U.S. market (with the help of the orphaned dollar) has already hit most Wall Street strategists' year end price targets (1350-1375), the story has not been so good for the much loved BRIC nations. India started the year in horrible fashion, has rebounded somewhat, but is straining under a series of interest rate hikes to contain rampant inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 24, 2011
BRIC Inflation, GDP, Stock Indexes, Monetary Policy Economic Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets
This week the focus goes to the giants of the emerging markets, the "BRIC" economies (the economic/investment one, not the political club). In this edition we review inflation, GDP, monetary policy and the stock markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Also thrown in is a quick review of the monetary policy decisions over the past week.
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Friday, April 22, 2011
Emerging Stock Markets Forecast, Which Ones to Hold, Buy or Sell / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Late last year, as part of Money Morning's "Outlook 2011" economic-forecast series, I suggested investing in emerging markets that were relatively cheaply priced, and whose economies seem poised to do well in 2011.
My favorite recommendation, Chile, gave a mediocre performance, down 3.2% on the year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, March 11, 2011
Higher Crude Oil Prices Pouring Profits into Venezuela's Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
Kerri Shannon writes: Libya turmoil continued this week as Col. Moammar Gadhafi's troops tried to chase rebel forces out of cities housing key oil facilities. The pro-government regime wants to regain cities with oil operations, many of which rebels took over in the first days of fighting.
Attacks Wednesday also destroyed one oil facility's diesel oil storage tank and pipeline. Shukri Ghanem, Libya's de facto oil minister and the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp., said no major oil installations were damaged in the explosion, but the fighting has disrupted a number of oil and natural gas facilities around the country.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
China Economy in the Year of the Rabbit / Economics / Emerging Markets
Happy New Year 4708!
According to the Chinese calendar it’s the Year of the Rabbit. The leading Asian brokerage firm CLSA reports the Rabbit will “wrest the reins from the decidedly unpleasant and erratic Tiger that’s been tossing and turning the markets over the past 12 months.” We all could appreciate a respite from extreme volatility.
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Saturday, February 05, 2011
Egypt’s Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, What It Means for Your Investments! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
In recent weeks we’ve seen riots in Algeria, a coup in Tunisia and a massive public uprising in Egypt. The catalyst: The combination of skyrocketing food prices and high, persistent unemployment.
But while most are focusing on the specific political shortcomings within the countries and dismissing the events as isolated and contained, the lessons learned from this global economic crisis give every reason to expect contagion …
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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Egypt Crisis Driven by Population Growth Impact Other Emerging Markets to Similarly Suffer / Politics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Seven months ago, global investment bankers had anointed Egypt as the "next big thing" in the world of emerging-markets investing - naming it as one of the exciting "CIVETS" economies that every investor had to consider.
At that time, in a column here in Money Morning, I told you that I had my doubts, and said that "with an 82-year-old dictator and a radical Islamist movement, it doesn't look that attractive to me."
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Three Latin America Markets to Beat the BRICS / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: The stock exchanges of Colombia, Peru and Chile agreed last November to merge their trading, giving international investors access to roughly 600 stocks - more than any single country in Latin America.
Earlier this month, the trio demonstrated just how serious they were, with the Peruvian and Colombian stock exchanges entering into a full-blown merger agreement. These are the three best-run countries in Latin America, with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $500 billion.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Malaysia’s Rich Natural Resources: The Next Great Asian Investment Opportunity / Economics / Emerging Markets
Last week I flew to Penang, Malaysia, and traipsed around the countryside in sweltering heat and humidity looking for the next great Asian investment opportunity. I found several amazing ones. But some background first …
Penang is a fascinating island city that sits a few miles on the Indian Ocean side of the Malaysian mainland near the northern mouth of the Straits of Malacca. It is this strategic location that turned Penang into one of the most important commercial trading centers in Southeast Asia.
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Thursday, December 09, 2010
Asia's Surging Economic Growth Pushes Global IPO Market to Record High and Continue in 2011 / Companies / Emerging Markets
Kerri Shannon writes: Despite market volatility and a shaky economic recovery, the global initial public offering (IPO) market for 2010 is on track to hit a record high – and 2011 is poised to continue the hot streak.
A study by accounting group Ernst & Young yesterday (Wednesday) showed that funds raised through global IPOs are expected to surpass $300 billion in 2010, topping the 2007 record of $295 billion. IPOs in the first 11 months of the year collected $255.3 billion in 1,199 deals.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Chile, The Emerging Market Investment for 2011 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes:
When I review each of the world's emerging markets in order to decide which ones to buy in 2011, I start with two questions:
•Is the market cheap?
•And has it under-performed over the past year?
Monday, November 15, 2010
Anticipating Volatility and the Rise of Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Life is about managing expectations and we believe understanding market cycles helps investors navigate through the volatility of their investments. We often remind investors to “Anticipate Before You Participate” and I strongly urge you to read through our special presentation on managing volatility. Read the presentation here.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Investing in Latin America, the Importance of Politics / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Brazil's election win by the Workers Party candidate Dilma Rousseff has cast a dark shadow over the investment prospects of that long-fashionable "BRIC" economy.
And it has underscored an important lesson for investors: In Latin America, the political climate is really the No. 1 factor in determining where to invest for the long run.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 04, 2010
Sorting Through Asian ETFs / Companies / Emerging Markets
You shouldn’t be surprised if I tell you I like Asia. I talk about Asia frequently, both in my Money and Markets columns and in International ETF Trader.
The reason is simple: Asia is where I see the best growth in today’s globalized economy. You can find good opportunities in Latin America and a few other places, too. But Asia is the Big Kahuna! Every serious investor has to be involved there to some degree.
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Thursday, November 04, 2010
Investors Find Solace in Emerging Market Stocks Amid U.S. Economic Turmoil / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: Maybe you've noticed that many of the stocks rising through the ranks of the broader market lately have a foreign accent.
The Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap exchange-traded fund (ETF) (NYSE: HAO), MV MarketVectors Indonesia Index ETF (IDX), and the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF (NYSE: PCY) are just a few of the ETFs I've recommended in the past that are leading the market higher.
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Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Investors Look to Emerging Markets as the Fed Diminishes the U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: The main thrust of the past two months has been the renewed collapse of the U.S. dollar.
The dollar has been on a one-way elevator ride to the ground floor since August, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first warned that quantitative easing was on the horizon.
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Monday, October 18, 2010
Colombia a Hot Investment Market / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Chris Berry is the founder of the New York-based mining research firm, House Mountain Partners, LLC, which focuses on the evolving geopolitical relationship between emerging and developed economies, the commodity space and junior mining and resource stocks positioned to benefit. Miller O'Prey, a well-respected professional geologist, is COO of Solvista Gold Corp. He has been working in Colombia for five years, and previously worked with both Grupo de Bullet and Continental Gold Ltd. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report at the 6th Annual Colombian Mining Conference in Medellin, they share their enthusiasm about Colombia as an emerging investment market and offer strong recommendations for junior mining firms that offer excellent prospects.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 18, 2010
Chilean Miners Rescue and Investing in Chile / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: The efficient, well-managed rescue of the 33 Chilean miners was an affecting spectacle for the world. It also should remind us that Chile is a well-run country, and that in an era when commodities are ever more important to the global economy, it is becoming an essential part of investors' portfolios.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 07, 2010
New Quantitative Easing Will Launch Emerging Stock Markets Boom / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: In Wall Street circles, it's known as "QE2" - for "Quantitative Easing - Round 2."
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BOE) are moving rapidly towards it, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has pledged to enact it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
Emerging Market Infrastructure Set to Drive Demand for Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets
Every week roughly 1 million people are born in or migrate to cities in emerging markets all over the world. By 2030, the global urban population is expected to grow by 1.6 billion people and account for 60 percent of all people on Earth, according to the United Nations.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Singapore, Turkey, Thailand and Brazil Soaring Emerging Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: I'm focused like a laser beam on emerging markets this year, because there is much more at play than just relative strength. This is where the economic growth in the world is occurring.
I hope you are participating. And if you're not, don't worry - there's still time to get in and make a profit before the mainstream catches on.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 13, 2010
Why Investors Need to Pay Attention to These Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: The U.S. market showed improvement last week, but is still falling short of the continued growth and profit opportunities that emerging markets have to offer.
Stocks inched higher on Wall Street over the past week, taking heart from news of a modest improvement in jobs and a narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit. Both acted to counter the argument that the U.S. economy is speeding for a cliff in a foreign-badged car.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Total Stock Market Returns For USA, EAFE and Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Emerging stock markets are generally held to have the highest growth potential in the future. Their economies are generally in better debt/GDP shape than the aggregate developed stock market countries. Their GDP growth rates have been, are currently, and are expected to be higher than aggregate developed stock market countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 29, 2010
BRIC Set for Name Change as it Prepares to Welcome New Members / Politics / Emerging Markets
BRIC - the organization that unites Brazil, Russia, India and China - may soon change its name as it prepares to welcome another member - the South African Republic, the most developed country on the African continent. The organization has accepted the bid from South Africa's President Jacob Zuma; most likely, the answer will be positive.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 28, 2010
South Africa Wants to Join BRICs Club / Economics / Emerging Markets
Boris Volkhonsky writes: [I]f and when South Africa joins BRIC (and there is no reason to believe the prospect is unreal), the new grouping (whether it will be called BRICSA or SABRIC) will acquire a really global character representing all major continents.
On Tuesday South African President Jacob Zuma, while on a state visit to China, expressed the desire and willingness of his country to join the informal club of four developing nations, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as BRIC.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Emerging Market Country ETFs: Why These Investments Should Be in Your Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Carl Delfeld writes: No matter where I went – Tokyo, Hong Kong or London – the story was the same.
When I stopped by global equity fund managers to pitch them on American small cap stocks, they’d pull out elegant, leather-covered ledgers and take notes with their Mont Blanc fountain pens.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Take Your Pick: Invest in Sinking U.S. or Soaring BRIC's / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Since March 2009, the S&P 500 has surged by nearly 60% and US Treasuries have continued to surge, pushing yields close to all-time lows. This has elicited sighs of relief from professional investors, who see the strength as sure signs of recovery. Yet, these investors are ignoring - willfully or otherwise -- the very thin trading volume upon which this rally is built. Retail investors remain scarred by the '08 collapse and have steered clear of the stock market altogether. Instead, they have parked cash in the Treasury market (hence the low yields).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Three Ways to Invest In South America with ETFs / Companies / Emerging Markets
In last week’s column we looked at some ETFs focused on the booming countries of Southeast Asia. Today we’re turning our spyglass in a different direction. We’re looking at the southern portion of the western hemisphere — South America.
If you participated in the Weiss Global Forum earlier this week, you heard us talking about Brazil as the hub of its continent. The parallels with China are very interesting …
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 09, 2010
Massive Wealth Shift From West to Emerging Markets in Full Swing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin here with a quick update on foreign markets.
One year ago, in our 2009 Global Forum, we forecast a massive shift of wealth — from the United States, bogged down with huge deficits and chronic, long-term unemployment … to emerging markets, enjoying the most rapid growth on the planet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
The Next Six Big Emerging Markets? / Economics / Emerging Markets
When countries get grouped together for economic or political purposes, an acronym or other shorthand device is soon to follow. OPEC, EU and G7 are a few of the old standards, while G20, PIIGS (European nations with dangerously large sovereign debt burdens), and of course BRICs are newer examples.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Seeing the Good and Bad in Latin America Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Global Strategist Jack Dzierwa is just back from an extensive research trip across Latin America. In addition to checking on agricultural prospects in Brazil (detailed here: Brazil Feeds the World), Jack traveled to Chile and Argentina. There he found two very different stories – one good, the other not.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 26, 2010
Three Emerging Economies Bucking the Depression Downtrend / Economics / Emerging Markets
Despite the downturn, they’re absolutely booming.While most-watched stock markets are flat at best, their stock markets are running up.
Best of all, there are a lot of reasons these runs will continue in the short- and long-term.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 19, 2010
The Case for Emerging Markets Investment Out Performance / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
One of the best selling points for investing in emerging markets is growth potential, but like any other sector, this growth must come at a reasonable price.
Emerging market stocks are cheap these days. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8x, which is 15 percent below the P/E for the MSCI World Index. As you can see on the chart below, this valuation has rarely been more attractive – it is 15 percent below the long-term average.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
CIVETS the New BRIC's for Investor Windfall Emerging Market Profits / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: First it was the "BRICs." Now it's the "CIVETS."
In fact, the CIVETS are the "new" BRICs: Expect some of the CIVETS economies (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) to be among the world's hottest markets in the decade to come. They have the potential to generate the same kind of windfall wealth as the BRIC markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China did over the last 10 years - but only if you pick the right markets at the right time.
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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
It's Time to Invest in Chile and Colombia / Companies / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: For decades, investors with an interest in Latin America were essentially limited to two choices: Invest in countries that were moderately badly run; or invest in countries that were truly dreadfully run.
Most recently, it's been the "dreadfully run" group that seems to be attracting new members: Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua have subscribed to the economic and political doctrines of Hugo Chavez's Venezuela.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
Brazil BRIC Economic Growth and China Retail Sales Analysis / Economics / Emerging Markets
This week we examine the GDP results from last "BRIC" economy to report, Brazil, then we look at another one; China and see how international trade and retail sales are tracking. Then we analyze the recent US consumer credit data, and finish up with a review of four of the monetary policy decisions this week.
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Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Holding The Tiger Economies / Economics / Emerging Markets
In the arc of history, all great powers have their day. Even confining our glance to the modern era, countries such as Spain, France, and Great Britain all had periods of unrivalled power across the world stage. Today, the United States reigns as the world's sole superpower - but the wheel of fortune is turning. The US is being credibly challenged by rising powers in the developing world, like India and China. It is a process that will have huge implications for investors over the coming years.
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
The Six Key Drivers of Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are changing the way the world works by developing into global powerhouses. The latest edition of our “What’s Driving?” series identifies the six key drivers and the effect they have on the economic vitality of emerging markets.
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Thursday, April 08, 2010
Investing in Peru, South America’s Hidden Gem / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: When investing in the emerging markets, you need to cast your net beyond the obvious candidates. Granted, China, Brazil and India have emerged to become very attractive investment stories (I don't trust Russia, the fourth and final "BRIC" economy).
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
Indonesian Stock Market Continues to Soar to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
While many emerging markets have stalled out in 2010 digesting huge 2009 gains, Indonesia continues to ramp in quite methodical fashion. This despite a 87% gain last year. Certainly this has been a missed opportunity as we should have pounced last May... or July... or September... or November [May 22, 2009: Indonesia: A Must Own Emerging Market] [Jul 9, 2009: Indonesia's Star Continues to Rise on Back of Yudhoyono's Re-election] I'll admit, both times the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (IDX) broke serious support (Nov 09, Feb 10) I hesitated as I was worried about a much larger selloff. Instead, as in the US, the market just turned around and staged a V shaped turn.
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Monday, March 29, 2010
Emerging Markets Decoupling, The Great Dichotomy Continues / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
While the U.S. economy is still bogged down by massive federal deficits and a new wave of home foreclosures, key foreign economies are already leaping ahead without those heavy burdens.
Just look at the scoreboard:
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Friday, March 26, 2010
Indonesia, Get in on the Ground Floor of This Growing Global Profit Machine / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jon D. Markman writes: I am enamored with Indonesia.
I've never been there. I've never met anyone from there. And it's not a country we hear much about. But it's the world's third-largest democracy (the current president got more votes than U.S. President Barack Obama). And it's one of the few Muslim countries - along with Turkey - that doesn't hate the United States as a matter of public policy.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Which Way Emerging Market Equities? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
With investors’ risk appetite emboldened by the prospects of an economic recovery, emerging-market equities (+104.0%) have outperformed mature-market equities (+73.3%) by a considerable margin since the commencement of the cyclical bull market in early March 2009. But these numbers camouflage the fact that the past six months have been characterized by essentially a sideways movement in relative performance. This raises the question as to how investors should place their bets over the next few months.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings Emerging Markets Advantage / Economics / Emerging Markets
It’s not a good time to be a developed economy.
Sovereign debt is at or near the crisis point in Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal. It’s also a big issue and getting bigger in the United States, Britain, Japan and a number of other countries.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
India vs China Economic Growth Potential / Economics / Emerging Markets
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Emerging Markets Investing 2010, Colombia Is Open for Business / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Following a recent group email exchange with Louis James, the truly tireless editor of Casey’s International Speculator currently kicking rocks in Colombia, one of the non-Casey Research participants in the exchange commented, “You guys are doing it right. How many research shops have emails that start out with ‘Greetings from Medellin’?”
This is not Louis’s first trip to Colombia but just one of many. This time he is there to update his notes on what’s going on down there, now that some semblance of political stability has reignited interest on the part of large and small exploration/mining companies alike in Colombia’s rich mineral endowment.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2010
MSCI Emerging Market Index Fund Key Price Levels / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the i-Shares MSCI Emerging Market Index Fund. This is the third largest ETF in the market with $39 billion of assets.
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Thursday, January 21, 2010
Emerging Economies Will Continue to Lead the Way / Economics / Emerging Markets
Emerging markets, especially China, Brazil, India, much of Asia and other parts of Latin America will lead the rest of the world in economic growth. As a multi-year trend, this is continuation of one of the best investing themes from 2009. Demand for commodities such as copper and steel will be critical for this growth. The economic growth of these countries is encouraging the emergence of a new middle class.
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Monday, December 28, 2009
Emerging Markets Beating the Dow Six to One! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin here with a brief review of global markets for 2009 and some basic thoughts regarding the risks and opportunities in 2010.
As we have been writing for many years, and as we highlighted in our Weiss Global Forum this past summer (click here for transcript), key emerging markets are — and should continue to be — greatly outperforming the Dow across the board.
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Monday, November 16, 2009
Which is the Strongest BRIC Country for Investing? / Economics / Emerging Markets
I have a trick question for you, especially if you’re interested in emerging markets:
Among the four BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — which offers the best stock market performance for American investors?
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Friday, November 13, 2009
Winds of Economic and Geopolitical Change / Economics / Emerging Markets
The 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th century belonged to America and in the 21st century, China will rule the business world. Whether you like it or not, this transition is already underway and it will intensify over the coming decades.
It is our observation that throughout history, no empire has managed to rule forever. If you look back in time, you will realise that various empires rose to power, they prospered and spread their influence. Thereafter, they over-extended themselves and then decayed. In fact, all the glorious empires had one thing in common – the spectacular collapse.
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Thursday, October 29, 2009
Emerging Market Economies in the New World Disorder / Economics / Emerging Markets
Chris Mayer writes: In horse racing, a match race is when two horses race against each other. One of the most famous such races happened at Pimlico, when Seabiscuit beat War Admiral in November 1938.
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Sunday, October 25, 2009
Road Map For Making a Fortune in Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Chris Mayer writes: Two weeks ago, I returned from my second visit to the financial capital of India, the city of Mumbai (formerly Bombay).
On the first go-round, I was mainly in tourist mode and visited several other cities, too. This time, I spent a week here just working, meeting businessmen, and talking with investors.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Global Economic Growth Trends, Asia and Brazil / Economics / Emerging Markets
In the last year, many analysts and investors have focused on China as the driver for global economic recovery. Actually, there are countries other than China that are experiencing significant economic growth, contributing to the global recovery. Many Asian countries and a few in South America are showing the world the way. The growth of these countries offers important export opportunities for the U.S.
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Monday, October 12, 2009
Latin America’s Twenty-First Century Socialism in Historical Perspective / Politics / Emerging Markets
The electoral victory of center left regimes in at least three Latin American countries, and the search for a new ideological identity to justify their rule, led ideologues and the incumbent presidents to embrace the notion that they represent a new 21st century version of socialism (21cs). Prominent writers, academics and regime spokespeople celebrated a totally new variant of socialism, as completely at odds with what they dubbed as the failed 20th century, Soviet-style socialism. The advocates and publicists of 21cs claims of a novel political-economic model rested on what they ascribed as a radical break with both the free market neo-liberal regimes which preceded, and the past “statist” version of socialism embodied by the former Soviet Union as well as China and Cuba.
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Monday, October 05, 2009
In Praise of Emerging Markets Investing / Economics / Emerging Markets
If you believe now is a good time to invest in U.S. stocks, emerging markets may offer even more opportunity.
We believe global growth is the most powerful investment theme now and for the foreseeable future. You can see this playing out as countries like China, India and Brazil grow in economic stature. As we saw in Pittsburgh last week, the G-7 is being supplanted by the more inclusive G-20 when it comes to global economic decision-making.
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Monday, August 10, 2009
Emerging Market Giants Much Better Risk than California / Economics / Emerging Markets
The Battle of the “Bears” - If I told you that an investment in California was riskier than Russia, would that surprise you?
Well according to the current prices for 10-year credit default swaps, Russia is less likely to default on its debt than the state of California.
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Thursday, August 06, 2009
Investing in the Frontier Emerging Markets with ETFs / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Ron Rowland writes: As a Money and Markets reader, you probably know an awful lot about “emerging markets.” They’re the countries that aren’t quite as modernized as the U.S. but are developing fast: China, Brazil, India, Russia, etc.
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Monday, July 27, 2009
Getting the Most Bang for Your BRIC Emerging Market Investments / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
At the end of the trading week a Bloomberg article appeared titled “BRIC IPOs Show Region’s ‘Growing Power,’ Biggs Says,” where famed investor and former Morgan Stanley chief global strategist Barton Biggs acknowledges that “clearly the BRICs are the big growth areas of the world.”
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Are Emerging Market Economies Leaving Us in the Dust? / Economics / Emerging Markets
Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, co-authored an editorial which appeared in the July 14th edition of the Financial Times, titled “Time to tackle the real evil too much debt”. The dirty little secret is that there is no avoiding the necessary pain and sacrifice that must occur in the aftermath of what can only be described as a period of the greatest overindulgence in the history of the world. Debt was the drug of choice and now we will continue to experience the inevitable hangover. Looking at the two jaw-dropping charts below, it should be quite obvious that it will take quite some time to burn off the excess debt that was created.
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Friday, July 10, 2009
Global Growth Surprises 2010, Germany and Brazil to Outperform China and India / Economics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Markets were cheered Wednesday when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global growth of 2.5% for 2010, a slight increase from its earlier forecast of 1.9% growth.
That’s good news for investors – but consumers in the United States and investors focused on it may not see much benefit.
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Friday, June 19, 2009
Russia and China Sign $100 Billion Trade Deal / Economics / Emerging Markets
A new deal between Russia and China in the sum of about $100 billion became the largest deal that has ever been signed between the two countries, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said as a result of the meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2009
China Must Take Advantage of Brazil to Have BRIC Renamed as CRIB / Economics / Emerging Markets
Marc Chandler writes: Brazil, Russia, India and China, now collectively known as the BRIC countries, will hold a summit in Russia on June 16th. Besides the Goldman Sachs invented moniker, these countries have very little in common except for the fact that they believe, to seemingly varying degrees of intensity, that they deserve greater influence in the conduct of world affairs than they currently have.
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Sunday, June 14, 2009
Mega Trends Suggest Investors Being Over Weight Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Everybody has a different stock / bond /cash allocation that is best for them. Whether the selected equity allocation is high or low, we think over-weighting emerging markets and under-weighting developed markets within the allocation is the better long-term strategy for long-term investors — except for investors currently relying on, or about to rely on, their portfolios for life style support for whom the volatility may not be appropriate.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
A Tale of Two Diverging Economic Worlds / Economics / Emerging Markets
Increasingly a deep divide within the world of globalization is emerging which will have the most profound significance for the future of G7 nations’ economic and political stability. The divide is between those nations which are still embedded within the dollar system, including countries in the Eurozone, versus those emerging economies—especially the BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India, China—where new economic markets and regions are rapidly replacing their over-dependence on the United States as prime export market and prime source for investment finance. The long-term consequences will be an aggravation of the trend of the United States as a political and economic superpower in terminal decline, while dynamic new economic zones, initially mainly of regional importance, will arise.
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Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Boost Your Portfolio by Investing in Emerging Markets / Portfolio / Emerging Markets
Tony Sagami writes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a 3.5 percent loss last week. One of the main culprits was a report from the Department of Commerce that retail sales dropped by 0.4 percent in April.
That was on the heels of a 1.3 percent drop in March. And back-to-back quarterly declines in the last half of 2008.
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Saturday, April 18, 2009
Cuba Your Next Offshore Investment Bonanza? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Offshore investment is getting a bad name lately, but that’s the tax-avoidance variety. There’s another potential investment offshore, and a few elite investors are already licking their chops at the prospect. I’m talking about Cuba.
On Monday, the Obama administration lifted restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to travel and send money to their island homeland. This is a calculated break with a half-century of U.S. policy of isolating communist Cuba.
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Thursday, April 02, 2009
Chile: Was Prepared for the Financial Crisis / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Chilean President Michelle Bachelet rebuked British Prime Minister Gordon Brown last weekend, saying the British economy would have more room for fiscal stimulus now if he had pursued responsible budget policies previously, as Chile has.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 02, 2009
BRIC Emerging Stock Markets Relative Performance Analysis / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Emerging countries have been increasingly important to developed economies. How are their stock markets doing lately?
Let's look at the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) over the past year through their indices.
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Monday, January 12, 2009
Emerging Giants Russia, China, Brazil and India Looming Collapse 2009 / Economics / Emerging Markets
I hope you've had a great start to your New Year! At the same time, however, I trust you are not counting on the latest holiday rally in the stock market — or the most recent incarnation of the Obama rescue package — to transform 2009 into a positive year for the economy.
The reasons: In addition to the massive wealth destruction I told you about two weeks ago and the continuing debt collapse I've been warning you about for many months now, the overseas engines of global growth are also collapsing.
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Sunday, December 07, 2008
Latvia Protects its Banking System by Arresting Economist For Speaking the Truth / Politics / Emerging Markets
The Latvian secret police arrested a university professor for delivering gloomy forecasts on the prospects for the Latvian economy and the state of the Latvian banking system, which as with the western banks have been riddled with over leveraged loans made during the easy credit boom times, but now have to contend with the impact of deleveraging and increasing rates of default that is plunging many eastern european countries into crisis.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Why the Dollar is Rising and Potential for Large Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
- The Economy Gets a Margin Call
- Where Have All the Consumers Gone?
- Why Is the Dollar Rising?
- Can We Actually Muddle Through?
- The Potential for a Large Stock Market Rally
- Is GM too Big to Let Fail?
As long-time readers know, my daughter Tiffani and I are interviewing millionaires for a book we will be writing called Eavesdropping on Millionaires. This has been one of the more personally impacting projects of my life, as the stories we hear are so very provocative. I hope we can transfer to readers of the book at least half of the impact we are personally experiencing. But at the end of each interview, we let the interviewee ask me questions. Often, they are along the line of "Do you really think we will Muddle Through?" Sometimes they ask in need of assurance and sometimes they simply think that my stance is somewhat naïve. It is something of an irony that I am called a perma-bear in some circles and a Pollyanna in others. The Muddle Through middle has been lonely of late.
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Thursday, November 13, 2008
Emerging Markets ETF Starting New Upleg? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Let's notice that at yesterday's low the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (AMEX: EEM) was 10% of its October low, compared to the SPY's, which at yesterday's low were about 1.8% off of October low. In addition, the pattern carved out from the Oct 27 low at 18.90 to the 27.63 high on Nov 4 exhibits a very bullish structure, which was followed by a correct pattern into yesterday's low. Taken together, my pattern analysis suggests strongly that the EEM has entered the very early stages of a new upleg that has as its first target a test of the November resistance line now at 24.75.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 10, 2008
Investor Funds Flowing Back into Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jack Dzierwa writes:Although not proof positive of better times ahead, we were encouraged this week to see a break of a negative trend in the money flows into emerging markets funds.
For the week ending November 5, there were net inflows of $413 million into emerging markets stock funds. This is a significant improvement from the previous week, when there were net redemptions of $1.6 billion. Two weeks ago, the net outflows from emerging markets funds totaled $750 million.
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Monday, November 03, 2008
Emerging Markets Turnaround is Getting Closer—Here’s Why / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
These are the kind of markets that test the courage of investors.
Currency volatility overlaying equity volatility has exaggerated all price actions. We believe the trillions of dollars of liquidity slowly filtering through the financial system will produce sunshine for these markets.
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Friday, October 31, 2008
Seeing Through the Financial Markets Panic to Profits … / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Larry Edelson writes: First, some important news no one else is telling you: The Dow is now trading at the equivalent of the 2,500 level, down a whopping 77% from its high.
Yes, you read that right. In terms of “honest” money — gold — the Dow Jones Industrials has already lost 77% of its value!
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Friday, October 31, 2008
Russia, Venezuela and Argentina Hit Hardest by Financial Crash / Politics / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Four months ago, it appeared that three economic “bad actors” were triumphant in their disregard of economic laws and contempt for the United States: Russia, Venezuela and Argentina. Today, while the iron laws of economics have taken a bite out of all of us, they have taken an especially big chunk out of the economies of these bad actors. Unless most of us, the bad actors will not be quick to recover.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Emerging Market ETF Soars Following U.S. Fed Loans / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The Fed's decision to "selectively" lend $30 billion (each) to Mexico, Brazil, S. Korea and Singapore to try to ensure financial stability in the emerging markets triggered a late-session pop in the iShares Emerging Markets Fund ETF (AMEX: EEM) -- notwithstanding the plunge in ALL equity indices during the final 10 minutes of trading yesterday -- which extended into this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Emerging Markets Crash Presents Compelling Valuations But with Risks / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Jack Dzierwa writes:After years of outsized performance, global emerging markets have been battered by volatility this year. All of the constituents in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are down in 2008, with stock markets in Russia , Hong Kong , India and other countries losing more than 50 percent of their value.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Russian Stock Market Crash and the Currency Factor / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
After taking yet another beating on Monday, Russia found its stock market down 60% on the year-- sixty percent!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Wall Street is Screaming BUY Emerging Market Stocks / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Tony Sagami writes: Wow — talk about a disaster. Bad news at AIG, Lehman, and throughout the financial sector led to a world-class pummeling on Wall Street. The Dow lost more than 504 points, while the S&P 500 dropped more than 4.6%, the worst single-day decline since right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Definitely stay tuned to Money and Markets for more updates on where we're going next.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
Profit From the Emerging Markets Investment Banking Boom / Companies / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes:Emerging markets are the place for investment bankers to wheel and deal during the next couple of years, as bankers in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America earn an increasing share of investment banking revenue.
Emerging markets share of investment banking revenue has increased both in percentage share and total value over the past few years. In 2005, investment-banking revenue from emerging markets accounted for almost $40 billion, or 16% of the global investment-banking revenue total. Those figures increased to just over $78 billion, a 21% share of the total in 2007.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2008
India’s Reliability Provides a Razor Thin Investment Edge Over China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: With sky-high growth potential, China and India are the two markets no investor can afford to miss out on. But that doesn't mean they're impervious to market turbulence, and in times of trouble, India is the more reliable investment.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Profit from the BRICs Investing: India and China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: Global investors need to “hit the BRICs” – literally. Back in 2003, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS ), eager to push its clients towards global investing – especially in the emerging markets – invented the acronym “ BRIC ” (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to represent the four emerging markets it believed were destined to become dominant economies in the years to come.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2008
Special Investment Report: Profit from the BRICs / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Hutchinson writes: If you're a global investor looking for global profits - including one potential way to double your money - you need to "Hit the BRICs." Back in 2003, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc . ( GS ) - eager to push its clients toward emerging markets investment - created the acronym "BRIC" to stand for Brazil, Russia, India and China, the four emerging markets the investment bank's strategists believed would become a dominant part of the world economy in the years ahead.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Buy $100 Billion Note on Ebay / Currencies / Emerging Markets
Full marks for eBay entrepreneurs for stepping in where forex traders have lost count of the zeros being added to the Zim dollar every few days. This is amid Zimbabwe's dizzying rate of inflation – officially quoted at 2.2 million per cent, but thought actually to be in the region of 12.5 million percent!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Investment Strategies to Exploit Current Macroeconomic Trends / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
I have several investment strategies in play to exploit the macroeconomic trends that continue to unfold. Many of these strategies have paid off handsomely – shorting the financials, homebuilders, and mortgage companies – and playing the market trading ranges. While I feel there is still more to be made by shorting the financials, the fact is that shorting strategies are not suitable for many investors. Here, I attempt to provide some more practical guidance for everyday investors. As you will see, I gradually progress into more sophisticated strategies. You need to determine what the best approach is for you based upon your risk tolerance, investment needs and horizon.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Investing Lessons for Today From Japans Lost Decade of Economic Depression / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
William Patalon III writes: A "Lost Decade" doesn't have to translate into lost profit opportunities. As the global financial crisis continues to escalate, the United States is increasingly facing the prospect of a long malaise that could easily eclipse Japan's Lost Decade of the 1990s in both duration and depth.
And history shows that such periods can be the worst for investors to navigate - especially when they follow a record stock-market run, such as the all-time-highs that U.S. share prices reached last fall.
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Thursday, July 10, 2008
Global Geopolitics: Saudi Arabian Petrodollars Driving Containment of Iran / Politics / Emerging Markets
As we begin the new quarter, now is an excellent time to take stock of your basic investment thesis. Ask yourself if your allocations still reflect what you think the world is going to look like over the next several months. And as part of that process, I'm here to tell you that making "financial" decisions based solely on "financial" inputs grossly oversimplifies the way the world really works. As I've said before, investing in debt, equity, or commodity markets without geopolitical intelligence is like trading juice futures without getting a weather forecast. You can do it, but good luck to you.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Emerging Markets Infrastructure Spending Boom for Next Three Years / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. ( MER ) has raised its annual infrastructure-spending estimate for emerging markets by 80%, as developing countries try to keep pace with fast-growing economies and large cash reserves, BusinessWeek reported.
Investment in infrastructure, which the firm sees as the long-term solution to inflation, will rise from $1.25 trillion to $2.25 trillion annually over the next three years. And China, the Middle East, and Russia will account for 70% of infrastructure spending.
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Monday, June 30, 2008
Interest Rates Tightening Bias to Spark Emerging Markets Forex Rally / Currencies / Emerging Markets
Jack Crooks writes: If you think the U.S. has inflation problems, get a load of this ...
Year-over-year consumer prices in Vietnam just surged by a whopping 26.8%. The month-over-month numbers jumped a cool 2.1% — or what the Federal Reserve would consider a comfortable pace for inflation in the U.S. over the course of an entire year.
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Friday, June 27, 2008
Financial Markets Intelligence Report / Politics / Emerging Markets
This week I want to share with you one of the more important tools in my arsenal for keeping up with what is going on in the world. As I've told you before, George Friedman and his team at Stratfor are my go-to guys for geopolitical intelligence. Their insights into this facet of the world are simply without peer. Now I want you to see their Intelligence Guidance which they publish each Friday for the upcoming week; last week's edition is below.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Emerging Markets Mega Trend Investing / News_Letter / Emerging Markets
The western economies led by the United States are teetering on the brink of recession, which is expected to be followed by a prolonged period of slow growth if not something worse namely stagflation.
Meanwhile the emerging economies continue to consolidate their strong growth rates, buoyed by huge trade surpluses from strong exports of consumer goods and raw commodities enabling governments to embark on huge infrastructure building projects. These economies are increasingly feeding their domestic construction and consumption booms as the developing world continues to make the mega shift to the developed world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Inflation Hitting Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets
Financial Times: Goldman close to $7 billion SIV bail-out
“Goldman Sachs is close to finalising a plan to restructure a $7 billion investment vehicle formerly run by London-based hedge fund Cheyne Capital, in a move that could potentially usher in a crucial new phase in the credit turmoil.
“The US bank's proposed reorganisation of the so-called structured investment vehicle is set to be just the first of a number of deals that could see about $18 billion worth of SIV assets restructured in the coming months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Why Emerging Markets Are So Volatile / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
We are sometimes asked why emerging markets are so much more volatile than developed markets. The answer is that, due to their relative size , money flows between them cause most of the volatility effect.
Consider a real world situation that most of us have seen — a stream emptying in to a pond and another stream at the the other end of the pond draining the overflow.
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Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Emerging Markets Mega Trend Investing / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The western economies led by the United States are teetering on the brink of recession, which is expected to be followed by a prolonged period of slow growth if not something worse namely stagflation.
Meanwhile the emerging economies continue to consolidate their strong growth rates, buoyed by huge trade surpluses from strong exports of consumer goods and raw commodities enabling governments to embark on huge infrastructure building projects. These economies are increasingly feeding their domestic construction and consumption booms as the developing world continues to make the mega shift to the developed world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 16, 2008
Emerging Markets Infrastructure Boom Opportunities / Economics / Emerging Markets
The investment opportunity in infrastructure seems to be getting bigger and better all the time, especially in emerging markets.
Merrill Lynch came out with a new research report that raises the expected spending on emerging-markets infrastructure to $2.25 trillion over the next three years, nearly double its earlier estimate.
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008
How to Profit From the Sinking US Economy and Rise of Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin D. Weiss writes: Last Monday, my mission was to bring home the vital importance of The Great Dichotomy — the unprecedented contrast between the sinking ship of the U.S. economy and the rising tide of emerging markets.
Today, my mission is to show you ways to profit from both. And as the events this past Friday clearly illustrate, the timing couldn't be more critical:
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Tuesday, June 03, 2008
US Economy Losing Critical Strengths as Others Overcome Greatest Obstacles / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Since 1952, when I first left the U.S. at the age of 6, I have lived many years in Latin America and Asia.
I have visited every continent except Antarctica. I have studied every major world language except Arabic. I have traveled on cargo planes, by truck, on foot and even by mule.
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Friday, May 30, 2008
Indonesia Dumps Corrupt OPEC for the Good Guys and Greater Profits / Economics / Emerging Markets
At times, you can tell a country by the company it keeps. Indonesia just announced it plans to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the infamous cartel that tries to push our oil prices through the roof.
That decision may not seem very significant, but consider it this way: If you were Indonesia, which countries would you rather have as your buddies? A bunch of sleazy, corrupt, idle “lottery winners” such as Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola? Or would you prefer a set of hard-working and diligent neighbors such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand? Not to mention two of the largest growth economies in the world: India and China?
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Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The “BRICs” (and Mortar) of the New Global Economy / Economics / Emerging Markets
In the early days of the American republic, fortune seekers were urged to “Go west young man!” Unfortunately, with the American economy now clearly showing its fragility, the rallying cry for today could be, “Go abroad!”
In the past quarter century, the center of wealth creation has steadily moved away from the United States and towards new foreign competitors, especially the so-called “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, where economic growth rates have greatly eclipsed the U.S. In recent years, this economic might has translated into much higher returns on their respective stock markets. These movements are creating a wave of real wealth that wise American investors cannot afford to miss.
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Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Commodity-based Emerging Markets Continue to Strut over S&P 500 / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
With the declining U.S. dollar and the steady growth of natural resource prices, many commodity-based world markets are feeling considerable buoyancy during this current bear market.
As the secular commodities bull market continues, its affects can be felt even during the global bear market. Many natural resource world economies are not feeling the same downdraft that has gripped the more blue chip and financial-based indexes.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Asian Emerging Market Stocks Rocket on Strong Growth Outlook / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Tony Sagami writes: What an amazing bounce!
You may think I'm talking about last Wednesday's big 298-point rally for the Dow Jones, but I'm not. I'm referring to a much bigger bounce that happened across the Pacific Ocean on the same day:
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Friday, January 25, 2008
Impact of US Current Account Deficit on Emerging Markets - From Credit to Money, Part I / Interest-Rates / Emerging Markets
"...Wouldn't life be much simpler for everyone if the US raised interest rates and didn't spend more than it had overseas...?"
ONE U.S. DOLLAR used to buy nearly four Brazilian Reals at the start of 2003.Today it buys fewer than half as many. Which you might think implies higher travel, energy and food costs to come for US consumers.
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Saturday, December 15, 2007
International Miners and Power Utilities Strong During US Financial and Economic Crisis / Companies / Emerging Markets
When the US economy and markets sneeze, the rest of the world catches a cold: That old investing adage has held for nearly a century, since this country first became dominant on the global scene after World War I.Conventional wisdom is it will hold this time around as well. But based on the numbers we've seen thus far, that's far from certain.
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
Emerging Market Companies- Strong Balance Sheets to Weather Economic Downturn / Companies / Emerging Markets
A seasoned investor in the international arena sent me an e-mail the other day using the signature “A Silk Roader.” I found the term appropriate for The Silk Road Investor subscribers, providing a code word of sorts to a circle that's still selective. ( Silk is my emerging markets newsletter.) Most investors haven't yet grasped the economic transformation taking place in front of our eyes.
Asia is leading this great global economic transformation and will be the engine of growth for years to come. And the region ex-Japan is still enjoying a long-term bull market that commenced at the bottom of the 1998 Asian Crisis.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
Investing In Asia - Buy the Technology, Not the Trend / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Yiannis G. Mostrous and GS Early write: There are two big concepts on growth investors' minds today: Asia and green tech. And for good reason; they both reinforce one another.
India and China is each turning out 600,000 engineers and scientists a year. In comparison, the US is graduating about 50,000.
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Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Megaforces Shaping The Greatest Global Wealth Shift of All Time / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin here with a Big-Picture reality check for all investors, For several years, observers called the U.S. a "Goldilocks" economy — blessed with low inflation, rising profits and no major disasters.
And more recently, to help keep the party going, the Fed has pumped in hundreds of billions in fresh cash, slashed its discount rate three times and cut the Fed funds rate twice.
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Tuesday, November 06, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Investment Models Continue to Point to Emerging Markets and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Be careful what you wish for – you just might get it. Such is the dilemma of the markets this weekend. The Fed did as expected by cutting rates by a quarter percent, the markets rallied off the news and then thought better of the idea and declined by the third largest amount this year the very next day and only a late session rally on Friday avoided a complete weekly rout. A few nagging issues continue to dog the markets, from the subprime issue (costing the Merrill chief his job and likely the Citigroup CEO) to persistently higher oil prices – soon to touch $100/bbl.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Emerging Markets - A Pause to Refresh? / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
The markets continue their quest for stabilization, and it seems that, for now, it's been achieved.Although no one really knows what will be the end game in regard to the credit issues surrounding the financial system, the fact remains that investors have been given time to reassess the situation and evaluate their investment positions.
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Friday, July 27, 2007
Dow Jones Index Plunge! Global Economic and Financial Market Inversion! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
With yesterday's big plunge, the Dow is down nearly 600 points this week. Yet, at the same time, key foreign markets have been mostly rising.
This market action makes two things increasingly evident:
- The U.S. economy is being hampered by a worsening housing crisis, while …
- Most global economies continue to expand at a strong pace.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Dow Jones Surges! But Brazil and China ETFs Rise Far More! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin here with a quick update on the Dow and international markets.
On Thursday, even as the Dow surged 284, its biggest one-day gain since October 2003 …
My favorite international ETF — representing Brazil's bluechips — was up the equivalent of 573 points on the Dow!
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Monday, July 02, 2007
News Alert: Brazil and China Trump Dow! Again! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin here with a news alert investors would be foolish to ignore: Our favorite overseas markets — Brazil and China — are leaving the Dow in the dust! Again!
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Tuesday, May 08, 2007
The Greatest Wealth-Building Investment Opportunities in 100 Years / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Weiss writes : This is Martin and team with a blockbuster, 21-page free report, easily one of the most important in the history of our company.
I've just been to the highlands of Brazil. Tony's heading to Asia soon. Larry's just back. Sean's going deep underground into the world's most promising mines.
All of us — Larry, Tony, Sean, Mike and I — have searched the globe and scanned the decades.
We've looked at every economic boom from the past century.
We've added them together.
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Thursday, May 03, 2007
Investng in Asia and Gold, The profits keep rolling in! / Companies / Emerging Markets
Larry Edelson writes : Wow, are the profits rolling in or what? For example, the 13 Asian stocks I told you about last June are now up 32.5% — in just over ten months.
Had you bought 100 shares of each of those companies, you'd have open gains of $25,437. Sweet!
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Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Capitalizing on Global Growth from Emerging Markets / Companies / Emerging Markets
The latest revelation on CNBC is that overseas growth can offset a slowing U.S. economy enabling the big U.S. multi-national companies to continue generating outstanding earnings. Talking head after talking head have parroted this theme for the last week and a half. Well, it is nice to be ahead of a trend for a change. Over the past three years, this has been the predominant theme of stocks in my portfolios. However, I haven't limited myself to U.S. companies.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Emerging Stock Markets, China up 22%! Brazil up 24%! What to do ... / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
No matter where I am in the world — even while driving our farm's little pick-up in the sugar cane fields of Brazil — I'm always connecting the dots —
To the rising price of sugar …
To the surging demand for cane-based ethanol …
To China's voracious appetite for energy …
To the dramatic growth in China's economy, and …
To the very nice profits average U.S. investors can make in both Brazil and China!
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Monday, April 02, 2007
Brazil the New Back Door to Investing in China / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
Martin Weiss writes : This weekend, Elisabeth and I finally got away to our favorite spot — the smallest, most beautiful, semi-private beach in the southern State of São Paulo.
I'm glad. It gives me a chance to contemplate the escalating Persian Gulf crisis from afar, something our editors and I talked about intensely before I left home late last week.
Plus, it gives me a chance to survey the opportunities here.
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Thursday, March 22, 2007
Investing in Asia - An update on 13 Asian powerhouses / Companies / Emerging Markets
Larry Edelson : I'm on another whirlwind tour of Asia. I just wrapped up a four-day visit to Kuala Lumpur … before that I spent four days in Hong Kong and Macau … and now I'm resting up for my next stop, Dubai. I can't wait to check out the financial capital of the Middle East, which also happens to be an important source of capital for Asia.
But while I'm taking a breather, I figured now is a good time to update you on the Asian stocks I told you about last June . How are they doing? Great!
Of the 13 stocks I highlighted, 12 are in the winning column with gains of up to 66.6%! There's only one loser, which fell about 11%.
So, as you can see, while a lot of people were busy talking about China slowing down and Asian markets looking shaky, many Asian stocks posted solid gains.
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Thursday, March 15, 2007
Investing in Malaysia and my take on the Stock Market Falls / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
I'm writing to you from the 33rd floor of the Kuala Lumpur Hilton, in the capital and largest city of Malaysia. One of three main Malaysian territories, metropolitan Kuala Lumpur is home to 6.9 million of Malaysia's 26.6 million citizens.
I've been here in the city, which locals call “KL,” for three days. Let me sum up what I've observed: KL, and Malaysia in general, are hotter than hot! And I don't mean just the weather, which is 97 degrees and humid. I'm talking about the country's economy.
Chic, vibrant, youthful, exciting, buzzing — those are just some of the words I'd use to describe the scene here. Like other Asian cities, KL is a melting pot. There are people of original Malay descent, along with Chinese, Indians, and other indigenous ethnic backgrounds.
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Wednesday, March 14, 2007
The State of the Earth - War, Debt and Poverty / Politics / Emerging Markets
In 1 AD, we humans were estimated to be around 300,000,000. In 1850, we first passed the 1 billion mark. We were 3.9 billion on January 1 of 1970 and today we number 6.9 billion. Our plunder of mother earth and our mutual murder has increased by a direct proportion to the increase in our numbers over the eons.
War talk is on the wind once again. The feverish frenzy to kill each other is soon going to overtake us. Man will exult in the blood of man in the mad race for the left over resources in the innards of the earth.
It is time for a State of the Earth report.
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