Analysis Topic: Housing Market Price trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Global stock market growth to offset US Housing Slump - Whistling Dixie To The Chicken Littles / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Brady_Willett
Having stayed out of the limelight for far to long, the 'bubbles forever!' doctrine is roaring back:
"Speculative money needs to go somewhere. There is no question that some of it is moving away from housing and into the stock market." Van der Eb, of the Gamco Mathers Fund, Chicago Tribune
"...bulls argue that global stock market strength helps to offset the wealth lost in people's homes..." Street
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007
UK Housing Market Heading for a Property Crash / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The next rise in UK interest rates to 5.50% is anticipated in a little over a weeks time. This is expected to further impact on a slowing housing market in the UK. Statistics from the British Bankers Association showed a drop in the rate of mortgage approvals by 8% despite the market entering the traditionally strong summer period. UK interest rates are on target to hit The Market Oracle forecasts (as of August 2006, expanded upon in Nov 06), of 5.75% by September 2007. With the risks of even further rises thereafter should inflation continue to stay above CPI 3%Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 28, 2007
US Housing Bubble Meltdown: "Is it too late to get out"? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the slumping real estate market on Friday saying, "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom.”Baloney.
Paulson added that the meltdown in subprime mortgages was not a “serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained.”
Wrong again.
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Friday, April 27, 2007
More Bad News on the US Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes I hate to sound like a broken record … I really don't enjoy being tagged as the "doom and gloomer" of the bunch here … I wish I could do something fun like my good friend Sean Brodrick, who gets to traipse through Canadian uranium mines and tell you all about the red-hot prospects in the sector!
But right now, it's my job to deliver bad tidings. Because when it comes to housing, there are plenty of 'em. With each passing month, more data confirms what I've been telling you — that the U.S. housing market remains stuck in the mud.
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Thursday, April 26, 2007
Pick up in UK house price growth seals a May interest rate rise / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
Pick up in house price growth seals a May interest rate rise• Pace of house price growth picks up in April, but trend still shows a gradual cooling
• Market demand has been supported by movers, but this too is beginning to wane
• Too rapid an increase in rates could destabilise the market
• Current economic conditions suggest that a house price crash is unlikely
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Consequences of Housing Bubble Crash Ignored by the Media for 2 Years / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Whitney
Trouble in Squanderville - Two years ago, anyone who wrote about the housing bubble was dismissed as a conspiracy nut. Now hardly a day goes by that the headlines aren't splattered with the details of the massive meltdown in the real estate market.What changed? The facts are essentially the same today as they were back then. In fact, the “Economist” — as well as many independent journalists — had already shown that the Fed's low interest rates had inflated the biggest equity bubble in history which could potentially bring down the entire economy.
Now, all of a sudden, the media is acting as if the problem sprouted up overnight?
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Monday, April 16, 2007
Hidden Home Price Decline In Silicon Valley Housing Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Jas_Jain
The home price declines in Silicon Valley are anything but hidden for most people trying to sell their homes, but it doesn't seem to show up in monthly and weekly reports that show slight YoY gains in the median prices. I have used Santa Clara County as a proxy for Silicon Valley and it is also a good proxy for the SF Bay Area except that Santa Clara County has held up better than most other parts of the Bay Area.
There are two sources of data that I have used - DataQuick, which reports on all home sales, SFHs (single family homes) and condos, new and resales, and sales on MLS, reported by California Association of Realtors (CAR), which reports SFHs and condos separately and most of the detail break down are for SFHs. San Jose Mercury News, the main paper in the area, publishes weekly data from DataQuick with break down by zip codes and that is my source for the DataQuick reports.
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Friday, April 13, 2007
US Housing Market unraveling fast! Dollar breaking down! / Housing-Market / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes I hate it when my dire forecasts come true. But my job is to call it like it is, and help you make sound investment decisions. So I keep my emotions out of the process, and focus on reality.
And when I look around me and see what's going on in the markets right now, I see two nasty scenarios coming to pass.
Today, I want to tell you why the worst is not yet over in housing, and why the dollar will continue to get crushed …
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Thursday, April 12, 2007
Mortgage approvals weaken in the face of rising costs and prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
Following last week's release of MBBG net lending figures for February, further information now available on lending to individuals shows that:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Green Homes have More Appeal for House Buyers / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nationwide
According to a recent study by Nationwide Building Society, the majority of UK homebuyers preferred a house with environmentally friendly features. Given the choice between two properties of a similar size and value, 82% of respondents claimed a house with features such as solar panels, had more of an influence on their decision to buy than attic rooms (68%), period features (63%) and walk-in wardrobes (62%).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Don't Blame the Market for Housing Bubble and Crash / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
The U.S. housing market, long considered vulnerable by many economists, is now on the verge of suffering a serious collapse in many regions. Commodities guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers warns that real estate in expensive bubble areas will drop 40 or 50%. Mainstream media outlets like the New York Times are reporting breathlessly about the possibility of widespread defaults on subprime mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Asset Price Deflation: The New Rules of Real Estate / Housing-Market / Deflation
By: Steve_Moyer
"Three Rules of Work: Out of clutter, find simplicity; from discord, find harmony; in the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." ~ Albert Einstein
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that our next piece would cover the "new rules of real estate," as post-bubble asset deflation indicators dominate the landscape. Meanwhile, our latest article generated more than 300 emails in a week's time -- our greatest response ever -- and was picked up by websites in the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, China, Canada, Mexico, and even Cuba .
Obviously we have come to an inflection point on the investment curve and are edging ever-closer to the "point of recognition" as it pertains to real estate. And real estate is key, because in my opinion its collapse will take down all asset classes for some time. Ergo, we humbly offer real estate's new rules:
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Who's afraid of the US housing slump? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Adrian_Ash
How the suckers robbed themselves in America's biggest ever Ponzi scheme...WHO'S AFRAID of falling home prices in the United States?
Bond investors might welcome a slump, says Bill Gross at Pimco. Head of the world's largest bond fund, he now forecasts "an ongoing bond bull market of still undefined proportions" thanks to US interest rates falling in response to the subprime collapse.
Gross's models put US rates back around 4%, down from the current 5.25%, if the Fed wants to stabilize national home prices.
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Subprime Mortgage Problem Contained? Give Me A Break! / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Michael_K_Dawson
I think that some heads are going to roll when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are forced to admit that the subprime mortgage problem is not contained. In my previous professional life, I worked as a sales person for a software company. We as sales people were often referred to as “feet on the street.” In addition to our sales responsibilities, we were responsible for gathering competitive information, surveying the landscape, detecting trends and most importantly feeding this data back to headquarters. Through formal as well as informal channels, the “feet on the street” ensured that the executives always had the most current field data. Since the executives were constantly speaking to Wall Street or in Industry forums inaccurate data could be very costly in many ways.
Obviously there is no such thing as “feet in the street” in the Government. If it were so, Paulson never would have made the following statement “Damage to the American economy from the housing market downturn and subprime mortgage foreclosures appears to be contained…” Five days after his remarks, in a statement released by a Buffalo, N.Y. based regional bank M&T Bank Corp (MTB), it stated that it is having trouble selling some of its loans. Prices dropped more than anticipated in its recent auction of some of its Alt-A loans – loans that fall between subprime and prime.
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Monday, April 02, 2007
Special Report on the UK Housing Market : First-Time Buyers and Affordability / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Submissions
First-time buyers hit by double whammy
- New first-time buyers face double whammy of house price and rate rises
- Higher house prices alone add £75 to typical first-time buyer monthly costs compared to last year. Interest rate increases bring this up to almost £120
- Locking into a fixed rate loan this time last year would have saved a typical first-time buyer £170 to date, with further monthly savings of £50 at current mortgage rates
- More first-time buyers choose longer-term and interest-only mortgages which can cut more than £300 off monthly payments
Nationwide Building Society has released a report showing the effects of interest rate and house price rises on first-time buyers.
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Sunday, April 01, 2007
Landlords warned to pay tax as UK property lettings boom / Housing-Market / Buy to Let
By: Submissions
A new trade and national advertising campaign launched in February advising landlords who let a room in their home or run a business, of the need to declare their earnings and pay tax on any profit.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 01, 2007
Mortgage approvals weaken in the face of rising costs and House prices / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Sarah_Jones
Following last week's release of MBBG net lending figures for February, further information now available on lending to individuals shows that:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 29, 2007
US Housing Market - Only One Sub-prime cockroach? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Hans_Wagner
One of the Trading Rules identified by Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter states that there is never only just one cockroach. If you see one, you know more are hiding in the walls and behind the counters. Investors who seek to beat the market should carefully consider this principle when they are considering investments in sectors that are experiencing trouble. They also might want to read Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles 
by Joe Ellis is an excellent book on how to predict macro moves of the market.
Well, as I mentioned in earlier commentaries, the problems in the sub-prime mortgage market are going to become more significant over time. Where there is one cockroach, there will be many more. For example, www.lenderimplode.com lists 39 sub-prime mortgage firms that have either shut down or been taken over so far.
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Wednesday, March 28, 2007
The US Housing Market 4 Year Cycle – More Falls Expected / Housing-Market / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
It seems that of late that a major topic being covered by the mainstream media is “sub-prime” mortgages and the related scare of the downstream impact. Well, the charts warned of problems in the home building sector a year and a half ago. In fact, I first reported in October 2005 that the charts were showing signs of trouble for the housing market. In the February 2006 I also reported on the further technical problems and developments for the housing sector.
Then, in the May 19, 2006 I followed up again on the housing sector and reported that the evidence from the intermediate-term charts had continued to evolved to the point that the longer-term trend had topped. I went on to give very specific cyclical high and low points to watch for as continued confirmation of my thesis. My point here being, the charts were right and the mainstream media once again failed to warn and even refused to acknowledge a housing bubble. That is until now when the problem becomes obvious.
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Saturday, March 24, 2007
US Housing Market - All Foreclosures, All Subprime, All the Time / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: John_Mauldin
At the risk of being all subprime, all the time, this week we look at what I think are the real risks for the economy as a result of the subprime debacle. How can one side say it is a contained risk (and in one sense it is) and not a problem for the economy while another side says it will drag the US into a recession and thus be a drag on the world economy? The answers will give us a handle on the whole issue, as we look at how the problem developed.
But first, let me correct an error. Last Monday in my Outside the Box, we used a brilliant piece of work from Dr. Woody Brock on why we need more derivatives and that the real problem in the derivatives market is not the size of the market. If you did not read it, you should.
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