Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - 30th Nov 21
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets - 30th Nov 21
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn - 30th Nov 21
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave - 30th Nov 21
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December - 30th Nov 21
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? - 30th Nov 21
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich - 29th Nov 21
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? - 29th Nov 21
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 21
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals - 28th Nov 21
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year - 28th Nov 21
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun - 28th Nov 21
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value - 27th Nov 21
Corsair MP600 NVME M.2 SSD 66% Performance Loss After 6 Months of Use - Benchmark Tests - 27th Nov 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Cycle Target Met, Indexes Short Term Toppy

Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis Dec 31, 2009 - 08:14 AM GMT

By: Jim_Curry

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis Article

In my prior article (December 2, 2009) I noted that the low that was registered in early-November was the confirmed bottom for each of the 45, 90 and 180-day cycles on the SPX. With that came along the expectation that the various US stock indexes would continue to see higher highs into at January of 2010 or later.


In terms of price, back in November the 45-day cycle had confirmed an upside cyclic target to the 1130.09 - 1153.63 level for the SPX, which has now been satisfied with the recent action:

Having said that, the December 9th low ended up being confirmed as a contracted bottom for this cycle - which is starting to shrink in length - and is currently averaging closer to 38 trading days from trough to trough.

In looking at a statistical analysis of this 45-day cycle, when it registers the pattern of a 'higher-low' - which it had to have done at the December 9th bottom - then the average rally over the past decade has normally been in the range of 25 trading days from trough to peak. If this proves correct for the current upward phase, then the inference is that the SPX won't see it's next peak with this cycle forming prior to January 15, 2010 - but could obviously come anywhere past this point. This statistical inference will remain intact as long as the December 9 low of 1085 holds any near-term downside.

Even with the above, the short-term cycles are looking a bit toppy at the present time - ideally looking at a peak anytime between now and very early next week. The chart below shows both the 10 and 20-day cycles, which are going over a top - and are due for a combination bottom in the January 6 - 11, 2010 time zone. Short-term resistance is at or into the 1135-1143 range for the SPX, and could be an area to look for these cycles to attempt to peak:

Once the 10 and 20-day cycles do top out, then a short correction should be seen, one that would ideally see prices retracing back to or below the 18-day moving average into the first week or so of January. However, as along as the next 20-day bottom holds at or above the 1085 level (which is the last low for this component, as well as for the 45-day cycle), then the probabilities will favor a continued push to higher highs into mid-to-late January of 2010 - then potentially setting up a more important peak with each of the larger 45-day and 90-day cycles.

For the bigger picture, getting a look ahead into the first quarter of 2010, the cyclical patterns with the mid-term cycles are leaning in favor of a mid-January or early-February high, then to be followed by a sharp drop into the next 90-day bottom. This cycle is tentatively scheduled to low-out around mid-March, but does have a plus or minus variance of several weeks in either direction. We'll take a look at the larger cycles at some point again in a future article

 

By Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
email: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
website: http://cyclewave.homestead.com

Jim Curry is the editor and publisher of Market Turns advisory, which specializes in using cyclical analysis to time the markets. To be added to our mailing list click HERE

Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely
for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable,
but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you
can gain confidence in them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or
omissions. Copyright 1998-2007, Jim Curry

JIm Curry Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in