Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
A Lesson About Gold – How Bullish Can It Be? - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market January 2018 Repeats in 2020 – Yikes! - 24th Jan 20
Gold Report from the Two Besieged Cities - 24th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Waves Trend Forecast 2020 - Video - 24th Jan 20
AMD Multi-cores vs INTEL Turbo Cores - Best Gaming CPUs 2020 - 3900x, 3950x, 9900K, or 9900KS - 24th Jan 20
Choosing the Best Garage Floor Containment Mats - 23rd Jan 20
Understanding the Benefits of Cannabis Tea - 23rd Jan 20
The Next Catalyst for Gold - 23rd Jan 20
5 Cyber-security considerations for 2020 - 23rd Jan 20
Car insurance: what the latest modifications could mean for your premiums - 23rd Jan 20
Junior Gold Mining Stocks Setting Up For Another Rally - 22nd Jan 20
Debt the Only 'Bubble' That Counts, Buy Gold and Silver! - 22nd Jan 20
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Commodities Have Detached from US Dollar, Are Rising in Real Terms

Commodities / Commodities Trading Dec 14, 2010 - 02:57 AM GMT

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the first phase of its bull market in the earlier portion of the last decade, Commodities began a bull market on the back of a falling US Dollar. The greenback declined while commodities, stocks, foreign currencies and even bonds rallied. The universal bull market could be better termed a dollar bear market. The movement of risk assets and especially commodities were, in most cases, hostage to the trends in the buck. 


In 2010 a very important change in this relationship has gone unnoticed in financial circles. Commodities have risen on their own and largely without the help of a weak US dollar. Year to date the CCI (continuous commodity index) is higher by 19% while the US Dollar is higher by 3%.

In the chart below we plot the CCI and the inverse of the US Dollar in the top row. One can see the major divergence. The CCI has made significant new highs (in 2010) while the inverse of the US Dollar remains well below its late 2009 peak. Furthermore, in the lower row we graph the CCI against UDN, a basket of currencies that excludes the buck. That chart surpassed the 2008 high.   

This begs the question, why the change?

While precious metals are the premier store of value, it’s important to remember that all hard assets can be a store of value. Investors are seeking stores of value as a combination of the actions of governments and immaterial economic growth has called into question the long-term viability of fiat currencies. Precious metals have been the leader but commodities are following suit, as is usually the case.  

As the chart below illustrates, commodities have performed well against all assets and not just against ill-fated currencies. In recent months, the CCI has surged when priced against corporate bonds, treasury bonds and stocks.   

Despite the clear resurgence in the commodities space, all we hear about from the mainstream press is the rebound in stocks. You’d think the S&P 500 was in some great bull market from all of this talk. Yes, stocks have rebounded tremendously but consider the following.

Gold is nearly 40% above its 2008 high. Silver is 36% above its 2008 high. The CCI is 3% below its high. The emerging markets ETF is 12% below its 2008 high. The S&P 500 is 21% below its 2008 high.

So while the James Altucher’s of the world are patting theirselves on the back for the S&P 500’s rally, they conveniently ignore the huge bull market in precious metals and commodities. Gold, Silver, and the commodities sector have crushed the S&P 500 in recent years and recent months. It’s great if you’ve made money in stocks, but they are a loser compared to the aforementioned bull markets.  

An investor likely would have made more money if they turned their focus to leveraged resource companies. The good news is we are in a bull market for resources and the sector is broad and expansive. In our new Commodities service we are focusing on and highlighting the value and opportunity in this broad sector. US stocks remain in a secular bear market while resource stocks will hit higher and higher highs well before us stocks begin their next bull market. Consider a free 14-day trial to our service as we seek to help you profit from the ongoing bull run in metals, energy and agriculture.

Good luck ahead!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
Jordan@thedailygold.com
http://www.thedailygold.com/newsletter

Trendsman” is an affiliate member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA) and is enrolled in their CMT Program, which certifies professionals in the field of technical analysis. He will be taking the final exam in Spring 07. Trendsman focuses on technical analysis but analyzes fundamentals and investor psychology in tandem with the charts. He credits his success to an immense love of the markets and an insatiable thirst for knowledge and profits.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules