SPX Making New Highs, But Nearing a Reversal
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Aug 27, 2018 - 04:43 PM GMT
SPX is making even newer all-time highs, so it’s time to get out the calculator to find what new targets there may be. The next Pivot date is Wednesday, which is day 266 in the Master Cycle, 8 days beyond the mean. It is also a Primary Cycle pivot, which is often associated with Cyclical strength leading up to it. The two red Fibonacci calculations appear to be the most likely, given the short time available to make that high. However, we cannot rule out the top calculation at 2948.70, should there be a panic buying period.
The weekly chart gives us another calculation that agrees with one of the calculations above. The Weekly Cycle Top is nearby, so I wouldn’t discount this one. There are other, lesser calculations which project a possible target in the 2890’s. SPX futures have already reached a high of 2888.25, so we will opt for the higher calculations. I will revisit them if appropriate.
ZeroHedge observes, “It has been a quiet overnight session as UK markets are closed for holiday, with last Friday's post-Jackson Hole surge that sent the S&P to a new all time high carrying over in the new week, and sending world stock markets to their highest level in more than two weeks on Monday as reassuring comments from Fed chief Powell, an easing in trade war jitters and a bid by China’s central bank to stabilize the yuan lifted risk appetite.”
VIX futures are higher and appear that they may open above the 50-day Moving Average at 13.26. It is possible for the VIX to rise as the SPX is still making new highs. It acts as an early warning of what may come. As a result, we will be keeping a close watch on the NYSE Hi-Lo Index , as well.
TNX is consolidating above the neckline. Of course, a move beneath the neckline gives us a sell signal on the 10-year yield.
USD futures are edging lower, but not yet beneath Wednesday’s low of 94.83. Often the threat of a new low may bring on a reversal from the SPX, so we are on high alert.
Regards,
Tony
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