Category: Stock Markets 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, June 24, 2019
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.
This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.
Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
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Saturday, February 09, 2019
Stock Market Prediction – PART I / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we enter the final stage of our market predictions from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data. We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally? The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.
As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future? Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months. Here we go.
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Monday, December 31, 2018
The Stock Market Plunge Protection Team, The Fed & The Investor Costs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Dan_Amerman
The "Plunge Protection Team" is the colloquial name for the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM). The Working Group was established by the executive order of President Reagan in 1988, in the aftermath of the stock market plunge of October, 1987.
The group reports to the President, and the official members of the group include the Secretary of the Treasury, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the chairman of the SEC, and the chairman of the CFTC. In other words, the group members are the four most powerful financial officials in the United States. In practice, the committee can be composed of senior aides and officials that have been designated by those top officials.
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Friday, December 28, 2018
From Stock Market Panic to Euphoria - Upward Reversal or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks rallied on Wednesday, retracing their Monday's and some of their last Friday's decline, as investors' sentiment much improved after Tuesday's holiday pause. We saw a panic-selling climax on Monday, but did the downtrend reverse?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 5.0-5.8% on Wednesday, as they retraced their Monday's sell-off and got above last Friday's closing prices. The S&P 500 index fell the lowest since the late April of 2017 and it traded 20.2% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91 yesterday. The daily low was at 2,346.58. Then the market rallied and closed 16.1% below the mentioned record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.0% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.8% on Wednesday.
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Thursday, December 27, 2018
When Will the First Big Stock Market Rally Start? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P has now fallen -20%, the conventional definition for a “bear market” (We define “bear markets” as 33%+ declines that last at least 1 year. 15%+ declines = “big corrections”).
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Thursday, December 27, 2018
The Next Stock Market Crisis is Here and Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The next crisis is here.
And yes, it is a crisis. Ignore anything the media says about this, we are seeing selling that is on par if not worse than the 2008 collapse.
And it’s not over by a long stretch.
Most traders remain in complete denial about what is happening. They think this is some kind of garden-variety correction or that investors are overreacting to the Government shutdown.
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Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Has this Stock Market Selloff Reached a Bottom Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Everyone wants to know if this selloff has reached a low or bottom yet and what to expect over the next 30~60+ days. Since October, the US stock market has reacted to the US Fed raising rates above 2.0% with dramatic downward price moves. The latest raise by the US Fed resulted in a very clear price decline in the markets illustrating the fact that investors don’t expect the markets to recover based on the current geopolitical and economic climate.
Over 5 years ago, our research team developed a financial modeling system that attempted to model the US Fed Funds Rate optimal levels given certain inputs (US GDP, US Population, US Debt, and others). The effort by our team of researchers was to attempt to identify where and when the US Fed should be adjusting rates and when and where the US Fed would make a mistake. The basic premise of our modeling system is that as long as Fed keeps rates within our model’s optimal output parameters, the US (and presumably global) economy should continue to operate without massive disruption events unless some outside event (think Europe, China or another massive economic collapse) disrupts the ability of the US economy from operating efficiently. We’ve included a screen capture of the current FFR modeling results below.
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Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Rampaging Stock Bear Markets WorldWide vis-à-vis CHRISTMAS / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: I_M_Vronsky
All major stock indices WORLDWIDE are presently in a Bear Market mode. In fact there is no exception: Stocks are trending downward in the North America, Asia, Europe and Mexico…without exception. This analysis will consist of mainly the stock charts of 16 major exchanges of the three continents (i.e. the Americas, Asia and Europe):
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North America (USA and Canada)
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Asia (China, Hong Kong, India and Japan)
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Europe (Germany, France and Euro FTSE)
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Mexico
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Dow Jones Global And World Indices
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Treasury Secretary Panics as Stock Markets Melt Down and Trump Mulls Firing Fed Chair Powell / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Wall Street didn’t take well to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike and projection for two more to come in 2019.
Neither did the White House.
President Donald Trump slammed Fed chairman Jerome Powell yet again and reportedly asked advisors within his inner circle whether he has the legal authority to fire Powell.
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Monday, December 24, 2018
If The Fundamentals Are Still Bullish, Why Is The Stock Market Crashing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
I would not have had to invest or work at all if I had $100 for every time I heard an analyst tell me that the market is just not trading upon fundamentals at this time. In fact, when the market seems to disconnect from the fundamentals, analysts view it as the market being wrong.
But, isn't it my responsibility as an investor to align my investment account with the market rather than the "fundamentals?" So, I would much rather be wrong and profitable rather than be right and in the red.
Take a step back and think about this. When the market was hitting its low in 2009, were the fundamentals bearish or bullish?
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Monday, December 24, 2018
S&P Breaks 2018 Feb Lows – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The ES (S&P e-mini contracts) broke the support level from the February 2018 lows immediately after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25 bp rate hike this week. This breakdown below the February 2018 lows is concerning because it indicates that previous support is not holding and we could be in for further downside price activity.
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Monday, December 24, 2018
Stock Market Waterfall Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – A bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Saturday, December 22, 2018
Worst December for Stock Market Since the Great Depression. What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
This is officially the third worst December for the stock market since 1900. The only other 2 times the S&P fell more than -12% in December were 1930 and 1931
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Friday, December 21, 2018
Extreme Bearish Stock Market Sentiment. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Bearish sentiment in the stock market is at an extreme right now. For example, the Put/Call Ratio is at its highest level ever. During such times, the stock market can go down more in the short term (when panic sets in, it’s hard to know the exact bottom). That’s why it’s always better to focus on risk:reward and remain unemotional.
Thursday, December 20, 2018
The S&P 500 is Now Wown -15%. What’s Next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is now down approximately -15%
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Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Stock Market Collapse? Buckle Up, It’s About to Get NASTY / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is expected to hike rates today. However, the bulls are hoping that the Fed will ALSO state that it now expects to hike rates FEWER times in 2019.
Let that sink in for a moment.
The ONLY reason the Fed would hike rates fewer times in 2019 is if the financial system is in serious trouble. So… the best we can hope for is that the Fed gets dovish because things are getting horrific?
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Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Stock Market Alert: The Dikembe Mutombo Continues to Hold! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
A lot of people voice opposition to walls. Funny. There is a wall on the Dow Jones Industrial’s chart.
Yeah, I know. Readers of my blog are shocked that Dow 24k cannot be breached. Again, as former NBA star Dikembe Mutombo used to block shots near the basket, the Federal Reserve certainly does the same in stocks. Specifically, they are currently defending the Dow 24k line with great force and determination. Check my previous blog posts for the DML (Dikembe Mutombo Line) origination.
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Will US Government Shutdown Cause The Stock Market To Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
Last Monday, the market dropped over 70 points from its intra-day high to just below 2600SPX, and a reporter on television claimed it was due to the “postponement of the Brexit vote.” Yet, around mid-day, the market began to rally off its lows, and ended positive for the day. But, there was no substantive reason cited for this rally. The same television announcer simply noted that “stocks are rising after a wild day in the market yesterday.” Does that make “wild days” in the stock market a reason for a rally? I guess that is the best they could do when there was no news available to explain the rally.
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Jeff Gundlach thinks that a Stocks Bear Market has started. Is he Right? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is now sitting at a 1 year low. And of course, traditional technical analysis states “if the S&P breaks below this support level, watch out below”.
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Monday, December 17, 2018
Stock Market At Medium-Term Lows, Which Direction is Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was bearish, as the broad stock market got closer to its medium-term local low again. Will the downtrend continue today?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.9-2.3% on Friday, retracing their recent advance, as investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index is currently 11.6% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3% on Friday.
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