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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up

Commodities / Natural Gas Mar 09, 2019 - 03:27 PM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Commodities

Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher.  Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April.  Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.

How do we know this?  We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data.  This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above.  When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.


The weekly historical data analysis for March shows a 53 to 46 positive price advantage with an average of $0.99 upside advantage over 99 tested weeks.  The weekly historical data analysis for April shows a 58 to 45 positive price advantage with an average of $0.89 upside advantage over 103 tested weeks.

Although the Weekly data is not as overwhelming in terms of positive to negative weekly results, the overall results still support the Monthly data – resulting in nearly a $1.00 upside price advantage.  Therefore, we believe any price rotation down in Natural Gas near recent lows, below $2.70, would be an excellent opportunity to take long positions with an upside target between $3.10 and $3.35.  We are not attempting to target the full $1.00 potential upside because we want to target safer, quicker upside objectives – not the lower probability targets.  In doing so, targeting a $0.40 to 0.60+ range allows us to execute very high probability objectives and trade almost like a “sniper”.  Get in, get our target and GET OUT.

If you want to see recent trade we closed on natural gas take a look at this postwhich I think you will agree is nothing short of simple and awesome!

We believe the current Buy Zone in NG is below $2.70.  Once price rotates a bit lower, any entry near the $2.70 level or lower would be an excellent entry level for skilled traders.  Our targets would be anything north of $3.00.  Ideally, we would pull half of our trade-off as soon as the price reached above $3.00 and pull the second half off when prices reached above $3.20 or $3.25.

Remember, we’re showing you that the months of March and April share this upside price advantage.  This means there is a higher probability of upside price moves throughout March & April in NG and all we have to do is find the strategic entry points and “run our trades”.  Get ready for some great trading opportunities this year and pay attention to NG.  Remember, you can trade the ETFs for Natural Gas as well.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

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