Category: Natural Gas
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, August 07, 2020
NATURAL GAS BEGINS UPSIDE BREAKOUT MOVE / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
First, we want to say “It took long enough!” and we’re happy to see this upside move in Natural Gas. We had been calling this move for many months. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle systems suggested the extended bottoming formation in Natural Gas was an excellent opportunity for skilled technical traders. Today’s big move suggests the downside price pressure is dissipating and a new bullish price trend may push Natural Gas prices above $2.85 quickly.
Our research team spotted this potential setup in April and May articles where we correctly predicted an NG rally in April (it did!) and new upside targets for NG in May. We have been keeping our subscribers up-to-date with UNG as this bottom has played out.
The upside move in late April 2020 was a cycle move that we expected to continue a bit higher. It still presented a very nice opportunity for skilled traders to capture a 35% upside price swing. The current, deeper, price bottom near $1.43, represents a very deep rotational bottom in Natural Gas and the current upside price move may be just starting. Our researchers believe the initial target for this move is $2.85. After that level is reached, if the trend continues, a higher target near $3.65 could become a very real price target.
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Thursday, May 07, 2020
Natural Gas Breaks $2.00 On Upside Rally and Next Target / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected. On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40.
The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect. Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance. Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90. Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.
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Wednesday, April 08, 2020
Is Natural Gas Price Ready For An April Rally? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have been following Natural Gas for many months and believe the current price level, near $1.65, is acting as a continued historical support level (a floor in price). Our researchers also used one of our data mining tools to attempt to identify if any opportunity exists in NG over the next 30 to 60+ days for skilled traders. The purpose of this data mining tool is to explore historical price activity and to determine if there is any true price “bias” that exists within certain months.
For example, if we could determine that Natural Gas tends to rally in April by a 2:1 ratio (historically) and that the rally in NG is typically somewhere between $0.50 and $1.50 to the upside, then we could attempt to use this information to set up a trade that allows us to attempt to profit from this potential future trend bias. A 2:1 ratio would indicate that, historically, the price rallied 10 times and didn’t rally 5 times over a span of 15 instances.
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Thursday, November 07, 2019
Where is the Top for Natural Gas? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wrote a very telling research article on October 24th, 2019. We never published it because we had other articles scheduled to be published over the next few weeks in the queue and because our subscribers get our trade alerts before the general public. At this point, we are sharing that past article as well as some current research for Natural Gas that should be very interesting to you.
Pay very close attention to the original October 24th article, below, and our prediction that the $2.75 to $2.85 level would be a likely target for the upside price rally from the basing level below $2.30. Currently, Natural Gas is trading at $2.87 – reaching our initial target level.
If our research is correct, strong demand and limited supply globally may push Natural Gas well above the $3.20 to $3.40 level after a very brief pause happens near $3.00. In fact, Natural Gas may be getting ready to rally past 2018 highs ($4.93) if the situation presents itself for such an incredible price rally. What would it take for a rally like that to happen? Much stronger demand for natural gas because of an early, extreme winter and extended global demand.
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Sunday, October 06, 2019
Natural Gas Reloads For Another Price Rally / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As a technical trader, one has to really learn to appreciate when a trade “reloads” for another move higher. Much like the Gold base/bottom in April 2019 below $1300 that we called back in October 2018. When a trend confirms and we can see the potential for upside profits, but price performs a “deep pullback” withing that initial trend setup – it is almost like we're dreaming.
After the downside rotation in Gold setup in April 2019, the next move higher pushed Gold prices up to $1550 from levels near $1275 – what a great move that was. Now, imagine Natural Gas may give us another chance to get long below $2.30 with an upside target near $3.00 before mid-November? Incredible – right?
Monday, September 16, 2019
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Avi_Gilburt
Andy Hecht: Natural gas can be one of the most volatile commodities that trade on the futures market. Since 1990, the price has traded from lows at $1.02 to a high at $15.65 per MMBtu. Over the past three decades, the fundamentals for the natural gas market gave changed dramatically. Discoveries of massive natural gas reserves in the Marcellus and Utica share regions of the US and technological advances in hydraulic fracking increased the supply side of the fundamental equation.
Since necessity is the mother of invention, natural gas has replaced coal in the US for power generation. At the same time, technology to liquefy natural gas has expanded the addressable market for the energy commodity. Natural gas used to depend on the US pipeline network for delivery. Today, it travels around the world in liquid form by ocean vessels. Therefore, the demand side of the fundamental equation in natural gas expanded with the supply side.
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Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Has the Basing Setup In Natural Gas Completed? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Back in June 2019, we posted a research article suggesting that Natural Gas was setting up an extended basing pattern below $2.35 preparing for a seasonal rally that typically initiates in late August or early September. We believe the basing pattern has nearly completed and now is the time to begin positioning for the upside price rally that we believe will hit in Natural Gas as early a September 5th or so.
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil. If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels.
We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move. Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.
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Saturday, July 27, 2019
Natural Gas Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups. Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb. It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy.
We believe the move lower is Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken. Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Natural Gas Sets Up Bottom Pattern / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In less than two weeks, our prediction that Natural Gas would move lower into our “basing zone”, between $2.00 and $2.20, has come true. Natural Gas has fallen into our expected basing/bottoming zone and traders should be looking to target low price entries as the extended setup of this base takes place.
You can read our original research post regarding our Natural Gas analysis from June 10, 2019: NATURAL GAS MOVES INTO BASING ZONE
It is our belief that anytime Natural Gas falls below $2.20, or lower, traders should consider jumping into NG related ETFs or NG future as this bottoming zone will likely push NG back above $2.35~$2.40 fairly quickly. Historically, any price move to levels closer to $2.00 have been very strong support for Natural Gas and this early basing pattern is setting up for an incredible opportunity for traders.
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019
Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher. It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019.
We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts.
Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines. It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019.
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Friday, April 12, 2019
Natural Gas Continues To Offer Opportunities for Longs / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, April has been a pretty consistent upside opportunity in Natural Gas for over 20 years. Over the past 24+ years, the upside opportunity in Natural Gas has been accurate over 68% of the time with the average upside potential ranging from $0.60 to $0.85. With Natural Gas sitting down near recent lows and seeing as though we are still fairly early in the month of April, our researchers believe the opportunity still exists for some quick profits in UNG with an upside move from below $23.95 to a target level of $26 to $28 (roughly +9 to +18%).
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Natural Gas Sets Up Another Buy Opportunity / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, we warned that Natural Gas may set up another opportunity for traders to buy into a support zone below $2.70 with a selling range near or above $3.00. Our upside target zone is between $3.25 and $3.45. The price of Natural Gas has recently fallen below $2.69 and we believe this could be the start of a setup for skilled traders to identify key buying opportunity in preparation for a quick +8% to +15% upside swing.
Historically, March and April have been pretty solid months for Natural Gas. Let’s go over the historical data using three different seasonality charts which all point to higher prices.
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher. Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April. Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.
How do we know this? We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data. This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above. When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.
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Saturday, March 02, 2019
Natural Gas Bottom Rotation Sets Up New Opportunities / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our recent UGAZ trade returned over 30% in profits in just a few days for our members. We believe this continued price rotation below $3 will also setup new trading opportunities for skilled traders. Traders just need to be patient and understand when the opportunity exists in NG for an upside price swing.
The $2.50~2.60 price level has continued to drive historical support in price for over two years now. Until that level is substantially broken, we believe the opportunities for upside price rotation from near these levels is substantial. The immediate upside targets for NG are $2.90 and $3.15. These targets are enough for skilled traders to capture 25~30% returns in the 3x ETFs which is what we did this week in UGAZ. Larger upside opportunities exist with seasonal price pattern, but we are likely 7+ months away from another seasonal rally in NG at this point.
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Monday, January 14, 2019
Will Natural Gas Breakout Or Breakdown Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We called the move from $4.75 to $2.90 in Natural Gas, and our predictive modeling solutions are suggesting a new upside rally in price is setting up for early Spring.
Very cold weather across the Northwest and Eastern US, as well as moderate demand globally, should prompt a renewed rally in Natural Gas through at least March or April of 2019. A move to, or above, $3.30~$3.40 would indicate there is little chance of a Washout-Low price formation and that a new rally is in place.
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Monday, January 07, 2019
Natural Gas Through our $3.20 Target – What Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team has been nailing the markets moves with our proprietary price modeling tools. Our December 12, 2018 call that Natural Gas would collapse nearly 30% after reaching a price peak was a very bold call. Who would have thought that predictive price modeling could be so accurate and could identify a move like this – or call for what is expected to happen next?
Back when Natural Gas breached the $4.60~4.80 range, our ADL predictive modeling system was suggesting a massive price anomaly was setting up. These types of triggers are becoming more common as volatility in the general markets increases. The ADL system suggested that a massive -30% downside price move would happen before the end of February 2019.
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Thursday, December 13, 2018
Natural Gas Price Setup for a Big Move Lower / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our proprietary Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting Natural Gas is about to break down below the $4.30 level and move aggressively toward the $3.05~3.25 level. This could be an incredible move for energy traders and a complete bust for existing longs.
This Weekly Natural Gas chart is showing our Fibonacci Predictive modeling system and highlighting the lower support price targets just above $3.00. We believe price weakness will break the $4.30 level very quickly and drive prices well below the $3.40 level – very likely towards support near $3.25 over the next few weeks.
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Natural Gas Breaks Lower Towards Our $3.00 Target / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just about seven days ago we alerted all of our followers to a massive breakdown move that was about to unfold in Natural Gas. At that time, we predicted the price of Natural Gas would break below $4.30 and fall quickly towards the $3.00~3.20 level. Taking a look at that call now, with the price below $3.60, it seems our analysis was perfectly timed.
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Thursday, November 15, 2018
Is A Top Forming In Natural Gas? / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent upswing in NG prices has been an incredible trade for many, yet we believe a top is now forming in Natural Gas that could catch many traders by surprise. The recent upside gap in price and upward price volatility would normally not concern long traders. They would likely view this as a tremendous success for their long NG positions, yet we believe this move is about to come to a dramatic end – fairly quickly.