Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1
Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Jan 21, 2020 - 12:30 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The gold bull market ended 2019 with a strong gain of 19%. The first half the year was marked with uncertainty as the price after an early year surge to $1350 gave up all of it's gains to drift lower to trade down on the year by early May. However, this was the calm before the bull market storm and that set the stage for a powerful bull run starting early June that saw the Gold price rocket higher to a early September peak of $1566, up over 25% on the year! Igniting Gold bug fever and encouraging prominent gold bugs to get carried away with headlines of Gold heading for $5000 and beyond.
However, the September high marked the start of a period of consolidation that just went on and on all the way into the end of November when off a $1446 low the Gold bull finally awoke with the price starting to trend higher once more, to end the year at $1520. With Gold rocketing to above the September high taking place early January when the drama queen in the White house launched his own rockets with the risks of igniting a new war in the Middle East, that luckily Iran proved incompetent at countering, including shooting down a passenger plane by mistake. This illustrates that we are living in an age of being ruled by MORONS! And whilst all this is going on the British media are wholly focused on just ONE story, MEGAN and HARRY tripe!
Gold Price Trend Forecasts 2019 Review
My analysis of 30th May just prior to the Gold price taking off like a rocket (Gold Price Trend Forecast Summer 2019) concluded in bullish expectations for the summer trend to see the Gold price target a series of resistance levels all the way to $1400.
Therefore my forecast conclusion for the Gold price is to trend higher towards a target of $1350-$1370 by late September 2019. This trend can be further broken down to expect a minor correction during July off of a June peak with the rally resuming during August and September.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Peering into the Mists of Time
Yes, my long term target for Gold is $1800. But I doubt it's going to happen this year as there are far too many hurdles to overcome.
With my second Gold analysis of late July Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update extending my bullish expectations for the Gold bull run towards a target of $1570 by the end of September which was achieved early September.
Gold Price Forecast Conclusion Update
Therefore my forecast conclusion is to expect the Gold price to soon resume it's bull run. Before this analysis I would have expected resistance at $1500 by Late September / Early October. However, I now think that $1500 is not going to hold for long so it looks like the Gold price could be eyeing a break of $1600 by early October and to have at least reached $1570.
And my third and final Gold analysis of the year of 30th October was banking on an imminent end to the Gold price consolidation and thus for the bull market to resume to soon target a break of of the September $1566 high before taking a breather into the end of the year to target a year end close of about $1560, that actually materialised just a few days later during the start of January 2020.
Which brings is to the present, $1560, already up 2.5% for a good start to 2020. However down from an opening high of $1590.
GOLD BULL MARKET LONG-TERM TARGET
The gold price continues to gravitate towards my long-term target of $1800 as of December 2016 ($1176).
The most recent peak of $1610 put the Gold price less than 10% away from my long-term target that this analysis will seek to determine the trend for the gold price during most of 2020.
GOLD TREND ANALYSIS 2020
The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- QE4EVER
- US DOLLAR
- LONG-TERM TREND ANALYSIS
- Gold / SIlver Ratio
- Trend Analysis
- ELLIOT WAVES
- Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 Conclusion
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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