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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold & Silver 2020

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Thursday, July 02, 2020

Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new momentum rally to a new momentum price base.

We believe July and August 2020 could prompt a series of these types of rotations as Gold attempts a move above $2100 or higher.  Allow us to explain our thinking as we explore this price pattern a bit further.

The first thing we need to realize is that Gold is nearing the $1900 level as it continues to push higher.  This is a very significant level for Gold because it would be very close to breaking the 2011 all-time high level near $1917.90.  As gold creeps higher because of perceived risk factors in the global markets, once Gold price levels break above $1850, then the rally to levels above $1900 is almost certain to drive investors into the precious metals markets at a much faster pace.  Psychologically, once Gold rallies above $1850 with the US stock market trading near all-time highs – something has to break. The disconnect between Gold (risk protection) and the valuation of equities (the stock market) are not aligned.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 01, 2020

High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

During the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. We invite you to read our today’s article about the high premiums in physical gold market during the pandemic and find out whether they were indicated scam or supply crisis.

Gold is expected to serve as a safe-haven asset. But during the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. What a safe haven that people can’t find? And does not the price divergence between physical and paper gold show the price manipulation in the latter market? Let’s analyze what really happened in the bullion market during the coronavirus crisis.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

IMF predicts deeper global recession and slower recovery, just as I expected. Good news for gold.

The June edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report Update is out! The main message is that the IMF predicts now even a deeper recession than two months ago.

As a reminder, in April edition of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF projected that the global economy would contract sharply by 3 percent this year, while the U.S. economy would plunge 5.9 percent. When it comes to 2021, the IMF projected 5.8 percent growth for the global economy and 4.7 percent for the U.S.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Silver Is Still Cheap For Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is still near all-time lows in many ways. One of the most significant measures wherein silver is at an all-time low, is its price relative to the amount of US dollars (US monetary base) in existence.

Below, is a long-term chart of the silver price relative to the US monetary base:

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Commodities

Monday, June 29, 2020

Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

What do snapping turtles and long-time investors have in common? Sector expert Michael Ballanger explains.

The Weekly Missive, which usually arrives over the weekend (sometimes on Friday, sometimes on Sunday) was delayed this weekend for one reason: I had to change it.

I started out last week with an idea that was leaning in the direction of full-on capitulation in the sense that this latest, three-month, Fed-fueled rally was beginning to smell like 2009 and 2002 and 1988. All occurred after precipitous market plunges; all were the direct result of Fed policy actions; and all obliterated the shorts.

I have been very successful in 2020 in moving into markets gripped with fear and moving away from markets obsessed with greed, but of those two emotions that have always been the "controllers" of markets since the late 1800s, greed absolutely conflagrates during Fed "printing" orgies, while fear dissipates into only minor outbursts of selling. This has been the exact playbook by which the Fed (totally owned and operated by a consortium of publicly traded banks) has been able to change the "rules of engagement" by which traders and investors have operated since inception.

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Commodities

Monday, June 29, 2020

Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100.  Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.

You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:

June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff

June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold

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Commodities

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold surged on Monday after a spike in coronavirus cases worldwide dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery. Within 24-hours the number of infections globally rose 183,020, a new record, the World Health Organization reported, Reuters said the US saw a 25% increase in new COVID-19 cases over the week ending June 21st. 

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Commodities

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Why People Have Always Held Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The current phase of the gold bull market, which started last year, is – we believe – the third and final wave of the secular bull run tracking back to 2001.

It's going to create a tidal bore of immense size and power. A wave that those who hold the metal (and silver) can ride as insurance against state-sponsored value-destruction of a country's currency, and as real money that cannot and has not ever gone to zero in recorded history.

It could last 3 or 4 years, until the end of this decade... or beyond.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Historical precedents are in many a technician's toolbox – and it's a tool they reach for with success repeatedly. Does the yellow metal offer any interesting parallels?

Gold had declined and it recovered, but the above simply prolongs the 2008-2020 analogy; it doesn’t invalidate it. Today, gold is attempting to break above the previous highs, but it’s not being successful in that.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Don’t Expect an Uneventful Summer for Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Bullion premiums have been drifting lower in recent weeks after spiking earlier this spring. That in part reflects a waning of fear among investors… and a hope for markets and the economy returning to normal as we head into the summer.

But make no mistake, these are NOT normal times.

Not with some parts of the economy still locked down. Not with the Federal Reserve embarked on an unlimited Quantitative Easing program that will dwarf all others that came before it. And not with the fabric of American society being ripped apart by radicals who are bent on erasing history and fomenting a race war.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Silver Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Long-term Trend Analysis

Silver faces very heavy overhead resistance from $18 all the way to $21 which means that it is going to be tough going and take significant effort for Silver to reach let alone breach $21. Whilst there is strong support at $16 and $14.5 (ignoring the crash low of $11.64).

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.

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Commodities

Monday, June 22, 2020

Excellent Silver Seasonal Buying Opportunity Lies Directly Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Dimitri_Speck

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights, my colleague Tea Muratovic and I shared our analysis of global stock markets with you.

Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.

Silver, often referred to as the "little brother" of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to show to you.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Sector Correction is Maturing / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold Stock Seasonal Average

The HUI Gold Bugs index has over the last 2 decades (encompassing both bull and bear markets) tended to bottom in July per stockcharts.com‘s data for the index. A seasonal average is not a directive, but it is a () guide to be factored. Last year gold stocks bottomed in May as we caught what would be a violent upswing. This year I expect the low to be in June or July.

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Commodities

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Gold Futures Firepower Mounts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s powerful post-stock-panic upleg hasn’t enjoyed buying support from the gold-futures speculators.  These influential traders often drive and even dominate major gold-price trends.  But they’ve been subtly selling into gold’s sharp recent rally.  Their dogged skepticism is actually very bullish for gold in coming months.  Gold-futures speculators are amassing big gold-futures-buying firepower that will be unleashed.

The maelstrom of extreme fear spawned by mid-March’s stock panic even briefly sucked in gold.  It had surged to a 7.1-year secular high of $1675 during the initial weeks of that heavy stock-market selling.  But once that went panic-grade, which is major stock indexes plummeting 20%+ in 2 weeks or less, even gold was dumped in the frantic dash for cash.  Similar to prior panics, gold plunged 12.1% in just 8 trading days.

But that sharp emotional drop was wildly-unjustified fundamentally.  With stock markets burning and the Fed printing crazy-record sums of new money like there’s no tomorrow, gold should’ve been soaring.  So it rapidly V-bounced out of that anomalous stock-panic low, to blast much higher over the next couple months.  Between mid-March to late May, gold surged up 18.7% to a 7.5-year secular high near $1748.

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Commodities

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Low Inflation Makes Powell a Dove. How It Affects Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation remains low, while Powell signals dovish Fed for years. Good for gold.

The US CPI inflation rate declined 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.8 percent drop in April. The decrease was mainly driven by decreases in energy, transportation and apparel prices. The core CPI also declined 0.1 percent, following a 0.4 percent drop in April. It was the third consecutive monthly decline, which happened for the first time in history of the index that starts in 1957. Anyway, compared with the previous month, we see some stabilization of disinflation forces, at least on a monthly basis.

On annual basis, the overall CPI increased just 0.2 percent (seasonally adjusted and merely 0.1 percent without the seasonal adjustments), following 0.4 percent increase in April. It was the smallest 12-month increase since October 2015. The core CPI rose 1.2 percent over the last 12 months, compared to the 1.4 percent increase in the previous month. It was the smallest increase since March 2011. Both indices are substantially lower than a few months ago. The chart below shows these disinflationary trends.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver is Going to have a Sudden, Massive Move to $50 that will Suprise Everyone / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento president and founder of Pento Portfolio Services. Michael is a well-known money manager, market commentator, and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. He's been a regular guest with us over the years, and it's always a pleasure to have him on with us.

Michael, thanks for the time again today and welcome back.

Michael Pento: Thank you so much for having me back on Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, it's been a few months since we've had you on last and just a little bit has been going on in the world. COVID-19 has hit the states to say the least and caused major disruptions in the economy. Governors have instituted stay-home orders. Tens of millions of people have filed for unemployment. Now we're seeing major rioting and social unrest in many cities throughout the country over the police killing of a black man in Minnesota last week.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Silver Tops Gold in May, Setting up a Summer Surge / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Although the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver, according to McAlinden Research Partners.

Silver and silver miners popped in May on the back of a rebound in industrial activity around the world. Ultra-low interest rates and expectations of a weaker dollar have compounded several political pressures that begun popping up at the end of the month. Though the gold to silver ratio has tightened a bit, it remains elevated and could indicate more upside for silver.

Silver futures capped a gain of nearly 24% for the month of May, the largest monthly gain since 2011. The metal jumped strongly on hopes of an upturn in industrial activity as economies around the world have begun to "reopen" in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Strong Demand Will Not Send Gold Price Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold is original money. As such, it is the measure of value for everything else.

Gold was money before the US dollar and other paper currencies. All paper currencies are substitutes for gold, i.e., real money.

So, how much is money worth? Money is worth what you can buy with it. In my article A Loaf Of Bread, A Gallon Of Gas, An Ounce Of Gold, I compared the cost to purchase bread and gasoline over the past one hundred years using US dollars vs. gold.

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Commodities

Monday, June 15, 2020

Silver: How to Gauge the Crowd's Mindset / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI


Watching out for sentiment extremes helps you avoid getting "caught up with the crowd"

Simply put, a market sentiment extreme is a situation when most everyone has already taken a bullish or bearish position in a financial asset, leaving almost no one left to buy or sell.

Silver provides an excellent case study.

Let's briefly go back to April 18, 2011, when Elliott Wave International's U.S. Short Term Update, which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets thrice weekly, showed this chart and said:

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