Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know - 25th Oct 20
�� Halloween 2020 TESCO Supermarkes Shoppers Covid Panic Buying! �� - 25th Oct 20
Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices - 25th Oct 20
Car Insurance And Insurance Claims and Options - 25th Oct 20
Best Pressure Washer Review - Karcher K7 Full Control Unboxing - 25th Oct 20
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis?

Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020 Jul 01, 2020 - 03:18 PM GMT

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Commodities

During the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. We invite you to read our today’s article about the high premiums in physical gold market during the pandemic and find out whether they were indicated scam or supply crisis.

Gold is expected to serve as a safe-haven asset. But during the coronavirus crisis many people couldn’t find physical gold, as there was a bullion shortage at dealerships. And these lucky individuals who managed to obtain bullion had to pay high premiums. What a safe haven that people can’t find? And does not the price divergence between physical and paper gold show the price manipulation in the latter market? Let’s analyze what really happened in the bullion market during the coronavirus crisis.


First of all, gold was perceived as a safe haven – and this is why it was in such high demand. Since the dawn of civilization, people turn to gold to protect their savings when they are worried about the future. The yellow metal was demonetized in 1971 when President Nixon closed the gold window, ending the gold standard, but gold never lost its position as a store of value. It should not be surprising, as gold was used as money for thousands of years and it has no counterparty risk.

However, that high demand did not meet with sufficiently increased supply. You see, the coronavirus crisis is both the negative demand and supply shock. Many supply chains were broken. The quarantine, labor absenteeism, travel limitations and other measures undertaken to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disrupted the normal, smooth functioning of the economic engine. And it applies to the mints and refiners which simply could not work at full capacity. The bullion coin you see in the retail store is a highly sophisticated product which had to be earlier minted, refined and transported, which can be logistically challenging even in normal times, but it became really difficult during the Great Lockdown.

This is the reason behind the supply shortage and high premiums. They do not necessarily prove manipulation in the paper gold market. Rather, refineries and mints stopped operating or capped production because of the collapse in global travel and shutdowns of local economies. Remember that three important gold retailers – Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus – are all based in the Swiss region of Ticino, near the border with Italy, that was quickly shut down at the beginning of the current pandemic.

Investors should remember two things here. First, there is always a certain premium on retail gold, as bullion dealers live on these premiums. One cannot have “spot gold”, so if somebody wants to own physical gold, he or she has to pay premium. After all, small and beautiful bullion coins or bars add some value and there are costs involved in producing them. Yes, during the coronavirus crisis these premiums soared, sometimes to 10-15 percent or even more over spot prices. But the havoc was unique: exploding demand and disrupted production and distribution chain at the same time.

Second, the markets are not homogenous, but heterogeneous – they are many segments on each market. Just as there is no single labor markets, but many labor markets (one for IT specialists, another for waiters, etc.), there is no single gold market. So, prices in these markets may differ, which is pretty normal (you don’t expect that the salary of IT specialists will be equal to waiters’ pay, do you?). After all, the LBMA Gold Price is a snapshot of gold prices quoted by traders in the London OTC spot market for wholesale transactions (and spot price might be even something else, as it is derived from the futures prices quoted in Comex), while the price offered by bullion dealers is the market price of physical bullion in retail trade.

Hence, there might be plenty of gold in a big trading hub like London, as there might be more sellers in the institutional market during the asset selloffs. And big fish typically use large bars of 400 ounces. The big ETFs and central banks do not buy gold at local bullion shops – they buy large gold bars by the truckload. This is why the size of different products is an important reason for the price discrepancy. Such large gold bars are beyond the reach of regular people, who prefer kilobars, one ounce bars and coins, or even smaller products. So they have to pay premium for the possibility to get gold products suitable for their shallow pockets.

Summing up, the bullion shortage and high premiums in the retail market do not prove manipulation in the gold market. They result from the market segmentation and supply disruption together with the explosion in demand for retail gold. But these shortages and high premiums do not have to impact the gold spot price, which is shaped in different segment of the gold market and by different factors. This is why London gold prices could go down during the stock market selloff, as the chart below shows, simultaneously with gold shortages in the retail market.

Chart 1: Gold prices (London P.M. Fix) from January 2 to June 1, 2020


To be clear, it doesn’t mean that the price of gold will not go up. We actually consider gold’s fundamentals to be bullish. But if gold prices appreciate, they will not do it because of the bullion boom in the retail market, which is a small fraction of the whole gold market, but because of stronger fundamentals and better sentiment among bigger players.

If you enjoyed the above analysis, we invite you to check out our other services. We provide detailed fundamental analyses of the gold market in our monthly Gold Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet and are not on our gold mailing list yet, we urge you to sign up. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe. Sign up today!

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieron Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules