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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 02, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Frederic_Simons

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 30year T-Bond (ZB September 09) is in an uptrend since it traded above the green resistance line for 2 consecutive bars. However, ZB could be in the process of turning down again after having made an a-b-c correction off its recent lows. A confirmation for this assumption would be visible if and when ZB U9 trades below the red line of the 180 minute chart - preferably for two consecutive bars. The red sell-line is currently at 116'21.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

New Recovery High for Treasury Bond TBT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) has recovered all of yesterday’s weakness and in fact has climbed to a marginal new recovery high this morning on the way to my next optimal target zone of 52.50/80. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 29, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Strong Performance Despite Record Issuance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market put in a strong performance in spite of another record volume of Treasury Note auctions last week.  As discussed in this here column last week, Treasury supply has been an ongoing theme in the market for a while.  It has been front page news for months now and it is pretty much fully discounted for that reason. 

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 28, 2009

What PIMCO's Bill Gross Doesn’t Want You to Know (Part 2) / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI hope you now understand how mutual funds work. They play the same shell games as the credit card industry. No matter which share class you buy, you are going to pay huge fees. And most investors who haven’t read this piece will never realize that.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 27, 2009

What PIMCO's Bill Gross Doesn’t Want You to Know (Part 1) / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI’ve sat by now for about ten years now, waiting for someone from the financial industry to point out what I am about to reveal. I meant to write about this but I kept forgetting.

I have to conclude that no one has written or spoken in the media about what I’m about to reveal because many simply are unaware of what I deem to be obvious. Others don’t want to go against their colleagues in the financial industry. But what these guys seem to forget is that their first loyalty should lie with the investment public. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 27, 2009

A Case For U.S. Treasury Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere’s an old saying that goes like this; “The market will do whatever it must to fool the majority of investors”. It’s another way of describing investor sentiment, which is known as a ‘contrary indicator’ (because the majority of investors are extremely bullish at important market tops, and extremely bearish at important bottoms).

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond TLT ETF Continues to Climb / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continue to act well, suggesting equity traders might be getting increasingly afraid of something... and need to buy some safety.  Although existing home sales are showing some sign of life now, Mr. (Bond) Market does not seem to care.  The TLTs continue to climb off of last Friday’s pullback low at 90.11 and appear headed for a confrontation with the Dec ’08-present resistance line, now at 94.20.  A close above 94.20 will be a very bullish technical event near-term and will project the TLT to 96.60 next.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 22, 2009

Bearish Trader Sentiment Bullish for Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market started the week with a decent tone but it pulled back on Thursday as the Treasury announced the details of next week’s bond auctions. In spite of the pull-back, the Long bond managed to eke out a small gain for the second week in a row. Real rates in the long end remain on an increasing trend as CPI declined from -.7 to -1.3% year over year through May causing the real long bond yield to close in on 6%. 

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Quantitative Easing Impact on U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNeither the Fed, the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada can or plan to exit their quantitative easing policies any time soon.

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InvestorEducation

Friday, June 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Final Head-Fake / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: John_Handbury

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy past articles have offered excellent advice, for example, buying Eurodollars (July 2008) and shorting gold (April 2008). The last two years have been profitable.

This trade is my most confident yet....

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 15, 2009

How to Profit From Front-Running the Government Bond Auctions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTom Dyson writes: Front-running is illegal.

Here's how it works: A crooked broker receives a large order from a customer. Before he executes the customer's order, he'll buy the stock in his own account. The customer's order pushes the price of the stock up and gives him an easy profit.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 15, 2009

The Secular Trend Change in U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI am on record stating that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond will move higher over the next 12 months, and this will represent a secular trend change.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 13, 2009

U.S. Fed in Trouble as Falling Dollar Risks Bond Investors Revolt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrank Shostak writes: A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June – an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April – a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 12, 2009

Technical Rally in Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to climb off of yest.'s new low of 87.45 (that occurred ahead of the 30 year auction results), which has triggered buy signals in my work (above 89.30/40) for upside continuation to 92.00 next. Has anything changed that has all of a sudden made longer term Treasury bonds more attractive FUNDAMENTALLY? For the time being, the upmove is mostly considered a sling-shot from a very oversold condition.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 11, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Volatility and Interest Rate Swaps / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe rising long-term USTreasury Bond yield continues to capture attention. The breakout chart for the 10-year Treasury shot up to 3.75% last week, but zoomed to touch 4.0% this week. Less attention has been directed at the short-term USTreasury Bill yields. What was a reasonably steady 2-year TBill yield in the 0.80% to 1.0% range has made a big move to 1.35% suddenly. Few have noticed, since mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year USTreasury. Much talk came in the last few weeks that China was rebalancing its USTreasury hoard, selling some long-term maturity bonds and buying shorter-term maturity bills. The rise in bond yields has actually been attributed to a USEconomic recovery, but that is absurd on its face, with a dozen statistics to debunk it. This China story was intended to mask the real events, to blame them in part for the US bond instability, and to divert attention away from a potentially important threat. Not only has the housing market stalled, with new mortgages and refinanced loans hitting a brick wall.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Anatomy Of A Treasury Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the major themes that I have been highlighting on this blog since its inception 6 months ago is the potential for a secular trend change in long term Treasury bonds. Starting back in December, 2008, there was a high likelihood of higher yields and lower bond prices. Last month provided technical confirmation that the top is in for Treasury bonds, and we should see yield pressures in the long end of the curve lasting at least 12 months.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

As Treasury Bond Yields Rise, Why Are Other Yields Falling? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a lot in the press these days about how the recent rise in Treasury bond yields has the potential to abort a nascent economic recovery. To this I say, nonsense! Chart 1 shows that as the Treasury bond yield has risen in recent weeks, the yields on privately-issued debt have declined in absolute levels. Chart 2 shows that the stock market has been trending higher since March as the Treasury bond yield has risen.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Seasonal's and Fundamentals Supportive of Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market sold off another four and a half points during the course of last week.  Market participants seem to be convinced that the worst is behind us as they were busy selling more bonds and buying whatever else they could get their dirty paws on.  This week there is another set of 3, 10 and 30 year Treasury auctions on deck.  That ought to hold the market back at the outset, but perhaps not after Thursday’s long bond auction.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, June 08, 2009

Geithner on a Fool’s Errand in China / InvestorEducation / US Bonds

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Bonner writes: This week brought an entertaining episode. Wall Street’s man in Washington, incidentally Secretary of the US Treasury, was sent to Beijing. His mission: to convince the canny Chinese of something that everyone knows is untrue – that US bonds are safe. But if the Americans keep faith with China, it won’t be for lack of trying.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 05, 2009

Team Obama Charm Offensive on U.S. Treasury Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations without destroying the dollar.

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