Category: Financial Crash
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, July 16, 2012
The Ultimate Stock Market Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
And now, for the main event:
Finally I want to share with you news that the S&P is on the verge of an “ultimate” death cross (see chart below). This is where a 50-month moving average (currently at 1152) falls below the 200-month average (currently 1145). The Trend blogspot (link) tries to make some sense of this very rare event. They note that the averages came close to crossing in 1978 towards the end of the 1965-82 secular bear market, but just held. By contrast Japan suffered a monthly death cross in 1998 and 14 years later we are still in the firm embrace of the bear. Watch this space.
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Thursday, July 12, 2012
Protect Yourself With Gold Against Collapse of the Faith-Based Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Shedlock
With the LIBOR manipulation scandal and the collapse of commodity brokers MF Global and PFG Best, what is the average investor to do?
Lauren Lyster discusses the answer in a Capital Account interview with Simon Mikhailovich, co-manager of Ediesis Capital.
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Monday, July 02, 2012
Stock Market at the Point of Reversal, Danger of a Flash Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FXE (125.35) appears to have reached the apex of minor wave 2 on Friday. As spirited and threatening as they appear, short-covering rallies generally don’t have the fuel to make new highs since the new shorts were taken on after the high on June 19. Rallies that are meant to shake out the shorts generally do not involve any investment on behalf of the institutions that engineer them. They are only too glad to buy back the short positions of their hapless victims.
Friday, June 15, 2012
Stock Market Crash Warnings Abound / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Since Monday, the VIX has climbed back up into the upper half of its hourly trading range. It is also now in the upper half of the daily and weekly trading ranges as well. The standard “rule of thumb” is that VIX signals danger for equities once it closes above 25.00. From a Cyclical Model view, this number can vary. In 2010, the danger zone was closer to 27, as awareness of the 2008 crash was still at top-of-mind. Today it is near 23.00, since people have become more sanguine about risk.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Euro FXE ETF In Pre-Crash Mode / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FXE closed beneath its Head & Shoulders neckline, short=term Trend resistance at 124.86 ans hourly Cycle Bottom support/resistance at 124.31. This retracement may be the equivalent of point 7 in the Orthodox Broadening Top formation, since the retracement was too weak to revisit the lower trendline near 127.50. Normally a third wave is the strongest, but it appears that wave (5) will be the strongest this time. The governing E.W. rule is that the third wave cannot be the smallest.
Friday, June 08, 2012
The Wonder Rally is Over, Stock Market Back at Flash Crash Trigger / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
-- I have reset the wave count on the VIX to correspond more closely with the Cycle Model. The Trading Cycle high on May 18 occurred on day 63 of the new Master Cycle. Normally, Trading Cycles are 60 days long, so that high meets the parameters. It turned out that today was a pivot day, which signals that VIX is ready to move considerably higher after its pullback. I had expected a Primary Cycle to top out tomorrow but inverted to a low today, instead. Today is day 83 in a normal 86 day Primary Cycle, so it has met its minimum date range. The alternate view is that the Primary Cycle may extend to June 13-14, primarily because of the influence of the Euro. This would definitely have a high probability of a crash scenario. Whether it happens by June 13 or not, the same crash scenario extends to mid-July.
Sunday, June 03, 2012
Stock Market 'Crash Alert' Flag is Flying / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Bill_Bonner
Yesterday, we promised to tell you more about our L-shaped non-recovery. It’s already lasted 5 years since subprime cracked up… It could last another 5…10…20…or even 100 years.
Okay, 100 is probably an exaggeration, but who knows?
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Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Stock Market Free fall Crash is Imminent / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FXE (123.67) is slipping lower. It appears that the retest of the Head & Shoulders neckline is over and FXE is losing what little support there is left. Free-fall lurks below 123.64 and appears to be imminent.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Stock Market Crash Alert, Market is Falling Like a Stone / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Whitney
As you might have noticed, the stock market is falling like a stone. German 2-year debt (bund) has dipped below 0% this morning at auction, signalling an acceleration in the bank run taking place in southern Europe. Depositors in Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc would rather take a loss on their investment, then risk not their money back at all. The European Central Bank (ECB) does not guarantee deposits, so people are withdrawing their money en masse and getting out of Dodge pronto. What we're seeing is a real-time panic.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Position Yourself for the Rest of "Conquer the Crash" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis.
Published in 2002, the book provided detailed descriptions of then-future economic scenarios. They were detailed vs. general. Prechter was specific in a way that would prove right or wrong; there was no gray.
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Friday, May 18, 2012
Facebook IPO May Break the Stock Market and Initiate a Free Fall Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Steven_Vincent
Let me start by clarifying something. I am not saying that the market could crash spectacularly in the next few days and that in that event the Facebook IPO would be a major contributing factor. I am not saying that. The market is saying it.
Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion
NEW YORK/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Facebook Inc increased the size of its initial public offering by almost 25 percent, and could raise as much as $16 billion as strong investor demand for a share of the No.1 social network trumps debate about its long-term potential to make money.
Facebook, founded eight years ago by
Mark Zuckerberg in a Harvard dorm room, said on Wednesday it will add about 84 million shares to its IPO, floating about 421 million shares in an offering expected to be priced on Thursday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-expands-ipo-size-aims-011714...
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
High Risk of Near Term Global Financial, Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Steven_Vincent
At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data. I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open "beginner's mind". I see what I see. I analyze. I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report. I simply report my findings.There is an extraordinarily high risk of some variety of global market panic in the relatively near term. In fact, I would say that there is a extant setup that is as perfectly aligned for an extreme market event as could be dreamed of by the most bearish of permabears. I'm no permabear, but a thorough review of the current price and technical charts has revealed an inordinate confluence of data points which collaborate to represent a very high risk profile. The current extreme risk profile is amplified by a nearly total lack of recognition on the part of market participants. A deflationary episode, potentially on the scale of the 2008 event, is presently on the table. Investors would do well to at least consider the facts, analysis and conclusions of this report.
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Thursday, May 10, 2012
Stock Market Crash Like in 1987 If Stocks Rally Without QE3 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu and said that, "I think the market will have difficulties to move up strongly unless we have a massive QE3 and if it moves and makes the high above 1422, the second half of the year could witness a crash, like in 1987."
Faber went on to say that, "I do not have a high opinion of the U.S. government, but the bureaucrats in Brussels make the government in the U.S. look like an organization consisting of geniuses."
Tuesday, May 08, 2012
VIX Ready to Rocket, Stock Market Ready to Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here’s another piece of evidence that the VIX may be going considerably higher. It nudged against an inverted Head & Shoulders neckline that targets 28.46 as a minimum advance and is pulling back for the breakout. Should this neckline be broken, as I believe it will, this becomes an argument for a much steeper decline in SPY/SPX in a third wave. The bounce that I had modeled for SPY is getting modified below..
Friday, May 04, 2012
Stock Market Fear and SPX Toppings / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Zeal_LLC
With the US stock markets surging nearly a third higher in just 6 months, the odds are rising for a major topping. As the best times to sell high, recognizing these events in real-time is very important for traders. But it is a big challenge due to the gradual way toppings unfold. An indicator that can really help is the famous implied-volatility fear gauges. They tend to exhibit unique and identifiable behaviors at toppings.
Friday, May 04, 2012
Stock Market Free-fall Crash to Cycle Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
We should see SPY continue to fall through its Cycle Bottom support at 136.13. It must go lower than the lesser Broadening Top trendline at the bottom of the chart.
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Sunday, April 29, 2012
U.S. Financial System Still Facing Armageddon? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
Four years after we brushed up against "financial Armageddon," did you think you'd be reading this?
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said...banks need to have more capital at hand in order to ensure the financial system is stable. Bernanke said regulators were taking steps to force financial institutions to hold higher capital buffers...Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Stock Market Gaps Through Crash Trigger, Seat Belts On? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX has been testing its prior highs, but has not yet broken out. The prior two weeks of consolidation have coiled up the VIX for a powerful upward move, which may be as early as tomorrow. My Cycles model suggests that VIX may have the most strength between now and Friday, since that is due to be a Primary Cycle high.
Friday, April 20, 2012
How to Handle an Economic Implosion, Conquer the Crash Collection / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: EWI
I came across some research on the subject of worry. Here's how it was presented:
Things People Worry About:
- things that never happen - 40%
- things which did happen that worrying can't undo - 30%
- needless health worries - 12%
- petty, miscellaneous worries - 10%
- real, legitimate worries - 8%
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Gary Shilling Forecasts Stock Market 43% Crash This Year / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Bloomberg
Economist Gary Shilling spoke about the outlook for the U.S. economy with Bloomberg Television's Adam Johnson and Stephanie Ruhle this afternoon and said that the S&P 500 will drop 43% from its recent level this year. Shilling said, "the analysts have been cranking their numbers down...I think that is true because you have foreign earnings that don't look good because of recession unfolding in Europe, stronger dollar...a hard landing in China."