Category: GeoPolitics
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, November 16, 2017
Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour was a quest for mega deals. US policies in Asia are shifting. The stress on competitive strategic visions is being redefined by historic bilateral economic opportunities with China, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and other ASEAN and APEC nations..
Diplomatic history has its ironies. In the Obama era, US President initiated a pivot to Asia that he had little time to visit. In the Trump era, US President has been so busy fortressing America against the world that he has had to spend more time in Asia to tame rumors about US disengagement.
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Monday, November 13, 2017
What President Trump and the West Can Learn from China / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Instead of a demonstration of its overwhelming military might intended to intimidate tiny North Korea and pressure China to lean on its defiant communist neighbor, President Trump and the West should try to learn a few things from China.
The President’s trip to the Far East came on the heels of the completion of China’s 19th National Congress where the current president, Xi Jinping, has cunningly positioned himself as China’s unchallenged leader. In an address at the opening of the Congress, Xi cautioned that the country faced “challenges” that are “extremely grim” yet, despite these, the nation’s future is “extremely bright.”*
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Thursday, October 26, 2017
Trump’s Indecision about North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : China’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party is getting a lot of attention right now. In the opening ceremony, President Xi Jinping heralded the beginning of a new era in China. Surprisingly, he was also very honest about the inadequacy of his first term.
Although the congress will continue into this week, most of the major events have already taken place.
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Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Turning Point Nations On The Stage / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the turning points with individual nations, once firmly in the Western alliance camp, but no longer. They are flipping eastward or in the case of China cutting the major cords. The Shanghai developments are by far the most important in the financial setting. The Petro-Dollar is seeing its last months after a 43-year reign as defacto standard. Its retirement will begin in the East, then spread to the decaying loyal Western nations. The entire geopolitical chessboard is becoming more aligned with the Eurasian Trade Zone, one nation after another. Its cornerstones are Russia, China, and increasingly Iran. It has gathered some Eastern European countries like Turkey, and will gather more. It has pursued the Middle East oil monarchies, and will succeed in lassoing them into the zone corral. Whether they deploy financial connections, or trade ties, or security links, these nations no longer see the United States and British (who walk the American dog with a monetary leash) as the leading global players any longer. The leaders are China with its financial and industrial might and Russia with its energy and commodity strength.
Sunday, September 24, 2017
Catalonia, Kurdistan, Patriotism, Flags and Referendums / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.
About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.
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Monday, September 18, 2017
The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Raymond_Matison
Never before, not since the founding of America even including our Civil War of the 1860’s, not in the history of the entire world has a confluence of risks risen and coalesced to the degree that makes the next few years the most dangerous on this planet since monkeys evolved to walking upright. Immense risks are prevalent in America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia – essentially covering most of our globe.
Thursday, August 03, 2017
Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
By Antonia Colibasanu : The US House of Representatives has passed a bill to renew and expand sanctions against Russia that were imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The bill, however, could also have a negative impact on some European energy projects that are linked to Russian companies.
Since the initial bill was first approved by the Senate on June 15, the European Union has been lobbying US lawmakers to revise the proposed legislation and reduce its effects on third-party countries.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.
The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.
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Monday, May 29, 2017
An Invisible Curtain Falls Between Russia and the West / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
By Jon Sather : The Cold War ended over 25 years ago, but the lingering Soviet specter continues to haunt the Western world. Since the election of Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2000, a new conflict has been brewing, this time in cyberspace. And on a battlefield monopolized by the United States and Russia, the historical threats of nuclear war, ambitions of global dominance and aspirations of containing the enemy may not be the relics of the past we imagine them to be.
Friday, May 19, 2017
Here’s Why Trump Won’t Pursue His Pledged Foreign Policy / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : For all the tumult that has defined President Donald Trump’s domestic policy, his foreign policy is relatively stable.
There are some notable differences, but what went on before is pretty much what is going on now—a surprise given the expectations.
Trump promised to disengage from burdensome commitments to other countries, shifting the risks and costs of the security of allies away from the United States.
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Tuesday, May 02, 2017
Who Are the World’s Biggest Military Spenders, Really? / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
The conventional narrative is that the world is threatened by the assertive China and Russia. The inconvenient narrative is that China is modernizing, while US priorities are misguided, Dan Steinbock says.When China recently launched its first domestically built aircraft carrier, New York Times saw it as “a milestone in President Xi Jinping’s drive to extend China’s military reach far beyond its shores.” First reports surfaced in early 2016, when Washington Post headlined, “By 2030, South China Sea will be ‘virtually a Chinese lake’.”
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Sunday, April 09, 2017
Russia and Iran Threaten Retaliation Against Further US Syria Aggression / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Stephen_Lendman
Russia and Iran accused Washington of crossing unacceptable red lines in attacking Syria - jointly saying they’ll respond to further US aggression, according to Reuters.
A joint statement published by the Ilam al Harbi media outlet said “(w)hat America waged in an aggression on Syria is a crossing of red lines.”
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Saturday, March 25, 2017
Will Washington Risk WW3 to Block an Emerging EU-Russia Superstate / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Mike_Whitney
The relentless demonization of Vladimir Putin is just one part of Washington’s multi-pronged strategy to roll-back Russian power in Central Asia and extinguish Putin’s dream of a “Greater Europe”. Along with the attempt to smear the Russian president as a “KGB thug” and “dictator”, the media has also alleged that Moscow intervened in the US presidential elections and that Russia is a serial aggressor that poses a growing threat to European and US national security. The media onslaught, which has greatly intensified since the election of Donald Trump in November 2016, has been accompanied by harsh economic sanctions, asymmetrical attacks on Russia’s markets and currency, the arming and training of Russian adversaries in Ukraine and Syria, the calculated suppression of oil prices, and a heavy-handed effort to sabotage Russia’s business relations in Europe. In short, Washington is doing everything in its power to prevent Russia and Europe from merging into the world’s biggest free trade zone that will be the center of global growth and prosperity for the next century.
Friday, March 24, 2017
Maps Of Past Empires That Can Tell Us About The Future / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB SHAPIRO : Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.
The value in knowing history is not that one might prevent its recurrence. Its value is that it allows you to identify those things that don’t change and that shape events… no matter the year on the calendar.
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
In Japan, Russia and China Find Common Ground / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: STRATFOR
For the first time in three years, Russia and Japan have revived an avenue of negotiation that had stalled in the face of enduring tension between the two nations. Foreign and defense ministers from both countries met in Tokyo on Monday to hold 2+2 talks on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. As expected, Japan took the opportunity to question Russia's recent attempts to bolster its defenses on the southern Kuril Islands, to which Tokyo has long laid claim. Russia fired back with its own objections to Japan's desire to build up its ballistic missile defenses as North Korea pushes ahead with its nuclear program.
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Sunday, March 12, 2017
The Paradoxical Rivalry of US and China for Industrial Innovation / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
By the early 2020s, rivalry for industrial innovation will accelerate between the U.S. and China. Ironically, the Trump White House has opted for a poor-economy industrial policy, whereas China has a rich-economy policy. The former seeks past glory; the latter cannot wait to get to the future.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Maps That Show The US’ Strategy In Asia-Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : Secretary of Defense James Mattis recently wrapped up his first international trip whose purpose was to “listen to the concerns of South Korean and Japanese leaders.”
The two countries are crucial US allies in Asia, and both face serious threats in their near abroad.
Discussing security threats, though, wasn’t the main goal of Mattis’s trip. He was there to assure both countries that the Trump administration will not abandon the US alliance structure in the Pacific.
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Thursday, February 09, 2017
The Leading Power In East Asia Will Be Japan—Not China / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : By 2040, Japan will rise as East Asia’s leading power. This is one of our most controversial forecasts at Geopolitical Futures.
Our readers know that GPF is bearish on China. And while some may disagree on that point, they usually see that the reasoning is sound. China will face serious problems in coming years… problems that will strain the Communist Party’s rule. (I write about this topic extensively in This Week in Geopolitics—subscribe here for free.)
Japan, though, seems a bridge too far. Its population is less than a tenth of China’s size (and it’s not just aging… it’s shrinking). Japan also has a debt-to-GDP ratio over 229%.
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Wednesday, January 18, 2017
Trump’s “Great Game”: Playing Russia Against China? / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
Trump has pledged to reset the White House policies on “America First” basis. In Asia, it may mean an effort to balance with Russia against China – the reverse of US China approach in the 1970s.
After inauguration, Donald Trump will move from Trump Plaza in mid-Manhattan to White House in Washington, where he will enjoy extraordinary execution power. Today, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Monday, January 16, 2017
The Story of the U.S. Regime Change Plan in the Philippines / Politics / GeoPolitics
By: Dan_Steinbock
As long-needed economic reforms are taking off in the Philippines, regime change plans have been prepared in the US State Department against a democratically-elected president who enjoys very high popular support. During the Philippine presidential campaigns in spring 2016, U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg sided visibly with anti-Duterte forces, which led to several high-profile confrontations. After the controversial Ambassador left the Philippines, he wrote a “blueprint to undermine Duterte within 18 months.” Last month, the plan was leaked to The Manila Times, the oldest English-language daily in the Philippines.
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