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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: GeoPolitics

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Politics

Thursday, January 10, 2019

America's New Africa Strategy / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the White House released its new U.S. Africa strategy, which seeks militarization and portrays China as a threat. Both are misguided. Africa can greatly benefit from Chinese and U.S. economic development.

On December 13, 2018, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton gave a speech in the conservative Heritage Foundation about the Trump administration’s new “Africa strategy,” based on Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy doctrine.

In the United States, the media focus was on Bolton’s attack against U.S. adversaries and American aid. Specifically, Boston accused Russia and China of “predatory practices” in Africa.

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Politics

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Here’s Why Trump Could Soon Turn on Europe / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

2018’s Buenos Aires G20 summit was a chance for world leaders to forge common ground on important global issues.

That’s not exactly what happened. But President Trump’s trade discussion with Chinese president Xi Jinping looked initially like a bright spot.

They agreed to stop making things worse for a few months, at least. Markets were more skeptical after digesting the news. And rightly so.

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Politics

Thursday, June 14, 2018

Trump-Kim Deal and the Long Path to Peace in the Korean Peninsula / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

The new Trump-Kim joint agreement could prove a promising ‘memorandum of understanding.’ However, it is not just about denuclearization; it should also be about peace and U.S. withdrawal from the Korean peninsula.

Here are the facts: Following hours of closed-door talks in the Hotel Capella Singapore, President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a joint four-point agreement: to establish new US-North Korean relations, a stable peace regime, a North Korean commitment to achieve the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula, and the repatriation of the remains of American prisoners of war.

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Politics

Monday, June 11, 2018

When Trump Met Fibonacci And Won / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Something curious happened during the Trump love fest at the G7 over the weekend. And I don’t think many people would have got it. In fact the entire western press, far as I could see, were blaming Trump for the dissolution of the treaties and whatall that the political class had worked so hard on for 50+ years.

But when you look at the whole thing from an energy level, Trump obviously won hands down. Merkel, Macron and Trudeau had no idea what to do with such a disruptive figure -though it could hardly have been a surprise to them- and so they sort of cowered back into a defensive posture as a group, saying Trump shouldn’t rock their boat. But that’s what he came there to do.

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Politics

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

How TIME’s Bremmer Got Duterte Wrong / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Today, global dominant media is often exploited as a tool of coercive diplomacy. The recent Time commentary on the Philippines president is a case in point. The real story is behind the story.

In early May, Time magazine released the feature story, “The Strongmen Era,” by Ian Bremmer, the venerable president of Eurasia Group. The cover featured the photos of Russian President Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Urban, Turkey’s President Erdogan, and Philippines President Duterte. It was a promotional piece for Bremmer’s new book on globalization. As Duterte reject the term “strongman,” Bremmer penned a new attack.

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Politics

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Location, Location and Nerve Agents - The Skripals Poisening Saga / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I am gullible. Very. I betcha I am more gullible than you. And that tells you something, because you know how gullible you are. Or so you think. Still, as bad as I got it, something physically snapped in the back of my head this morning, I could hear it snap, when I saw this Guardian headline:

Skripals Poisoned From Front Door Of Salisbury Home, Police Say

Detectives investigating the attempted murders of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia Skripal have said they believe the pair were poisoned with a nerve agent at the front door of his Salisbury home. Specialists investigating the poisoning of the the Skripals have found the highest concentration of the nerve agent on the front door at the address, police said. Counter-terrorism detectives will continue to focus their inquiries on the home address for the coming weeks, and possibly months…

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Politics

Sunday, March 04, 2018

Putin - The Man Who Stopped Washington’s Regime Change Rampage / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Mike_Whitney

“It is essential to provide conditions for creative labor and economic growth at a pace that would put an end to the division of the world into permanent winners and permanent losers. The rules of the game should give the developing economies at least a chance to catch up with those we know as developed economies. We should work to level out the pace of economic development, and brace up backward countries and regions so as to make the fruit of economic growth and technological progress accessible to all. Particularly, this would help to put an end to poverty, one of the worst contemporary problems.” Vladimir Putin, President Russian Federation, Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club

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Politics

Friday, January 19, 2018

5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

5 Maps And Charts That Predict Geopolitical Trends In 2018

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Almost a year ago to the day, we wrote an article titled "The Geopolitics of 2017 in Four Maps." As it turned out, that article was one of our most popular in 2017.

We return this year with a similar concept in mind. Here are some of our best charts and maps from the past year, with an explanation of why each graphic is crucial for understanding the geopolitical forces to watch in the year ahead.

Let’s dive in.

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Politics

Monday, January 08, 2018

Blowup with China or North Korea Could Change Almost Everything Overnight / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gordon Chang, author, television pundit, and columnist at the Daily Beast. Gordon is a frequent guest on Fox News, CNBC, and CNN, among others, and is one of the foremost experts on Asian economics and geopolitics, having written books on the subject and it's great to have him back on with us.

Gordon, it's a real honor to have you on again, and thanks so much for your time today. I know it's been a busy week for you given all of your media appearances, and we're grateful that you could join us today. How are you?

Gordon Chang: I'm fine, thank you, and thank you so much, Mike. I really appreciate the opportunity.

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Politics

Thursday, January 04, 2018

War, Peace and Recession 2018 / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: EconMatters

December and January are usually two busy months for researchers as they release prediction/forecast of the New Year. We are going to briefly discuss two such forecasts here.

Top 5 World War III Crises

The first one is a geopolitical forecast, 5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018, published last month. Now let’s take a quick look at the top five crises that could lead to the greatest conflict in 2018:

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Politics

Monday, December 04, 2017

Heaven Forbid Peace Should Break Out Between the US and North Korea! / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

As long as the US Empire can be funded and maintained on the backs of its taxpaying public, the chance of de-escalation of tensions not only on the Korean peninsula, but throughout the world are practically nil.  And, as long as the nation’s current interventionist ideology holds sway, it will only be through a financial meltdown that the US’s role as global policeman will come to a much-needed end.

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Politics

Monday, November 20, 2017

Trump’s Asia Strategy, Goals and Realities / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump’s critics claim he lacks a comprehensive approach to Asia. In reality, his current approach is aligned with moderate “America First” goals. But what did Trump really achieve in Asia?

If President Obama’s pivot was based on multilateral trade agreements, which were mainly geopolitical and predicated on exclusionary politics against China, Trump’s interest is in bilateral trade deals, which are fueled by US exports, foreign investments in US jobs and foreign purchases of American military weaponry.

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Politics

Friday, November 17, 2017

The New US-Chinese Globalization Opportunity / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

While US postwar policies in Asia are shifting, a new Sino-US historical opportunity has emerged. US and Chinese visions of globalization could still prove complementary.

President Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour took place amid a worrisome historical moment. Since the mid-2010s, global economic integration - as measured by trade, investment and migration - has come to a standstill. Trade has been falling. Investment continues to stagnate. And slower migration has given rise to elevated global displacement and refugee crises - the worst since 1945.
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Politics

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Trump’s Asia Tour: From Old Conflicts to New Prospects / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Dan_Steinbock

Trump’s grueling 12-day Asia tour was a quest for mega deals.  US policies in Asia are shifting. The stress on competitive strategic visions is being redefined by historic bilateral economic opportunities with China, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and other ASEAN and APEC nations.
.
Diplomatic history has its ironies. In the Obama era, US President initiated a pivot to Asia that he had little time to visit. In the Trump era, US President has been so busy fortressing America against the world that he has had to spend more time in Asia to tame rumors about US disengagement.

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Politics

Monday, November 13, 2017

What President Trump and the West Can Learn from China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

Instead of a demonstration of its overwhelming military might intended to intimidate tiny North Korea and pressure China to lean on its defiant communist neighbor, President Trump and the West should try to learn a few things from China.

The President’s trip to the Far East came on the heels of the completion of China’s 19th National Congress where the current president, Xi Jinping, has cunningly positioned himself as China’s unchallenged leader.  In an address at the opening of the Congress, Xi cautioned that the country faced “challenges” that are “extremely grim” yet, despite these, the nation’s future is “extremely bright.”*

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Politics

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Trump’s Indecision about North Korea May Cost Him Allies in Asia Pacific / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : China’s 19th National Congress of the Communist Party is getting a lot of attention right now. In the opening ceremony, President Xi Jinping heralded the beginning of a new era in China. Surprisingly, he was also very honest about the inadequacy of his first term.

Although the congress will continue into this week, most of the major events have already taken place.

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Politics

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Turning Point Nations On The Stage / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the turning points with individual nations, once firmly in the Western alliance camp, but no longer. They are flipping eastward or in the case of China cutting the major cords. The Shanghai developments are by far the most important in the financial setting. The Petro-Dollar is seeing its last months after a 43-year reign as defacto standard. Its retirement will begin in the East, then spread to the decaying loyal Western nations. The entire geopolitical chessboard is becoming more aligned with the Eurasian Trade Zone, one nation after another. Its cornerstones are Russia, China, and increasingly Iran. It has gathered some Eastern European countries like Turkey, and will gather more. It has pursued the Middle East oil monarchies, and will succeed in lassoing them into the zone corral. Whether they deploy financial connections, or trade ties, or security links, these nations no longer see the United States and British (who walk the American dog with a monetary leash) as the leading global players any longer. The leaders are China with its financial and industrial might and Russia with its energy and commodity strength.

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Politics

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Catalonia, Kurdistan, Patriotism, Flags and Referendums / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.

About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.

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Politics

Monday, September 18, 2017

The Sum of Risks – Global, Strategic, Political, and Financial / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Raymond_Matison

Never before, not since the founding of America even including our Civil War of the 1860’s, not in the history of the entire world has a confluence of risks risen and coalesced to the degree that makes the next few years the most dangerous on this planet since monkeys evolved to walking upright. Immense risks are prevalent in America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia – essentially covering most of our globe. 

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Politics

Thursday, August 03, 2017

Here’s Why The US Sanctions Against Russia Threaten Germany’s Interests / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

By Antonia Colibasanu : The US House of Representatives has passed a bill to renew and expand sanctions against Russia that were imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The bill, however, could also have a negative impact on some European energy projects that are linked to Russian companies.

Since the initial bill was first approved by the Senate on June 15, the European Union has been lobbying US lawmakers to revise the proposed legislation and reduce its effects on third-party countries.

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