Category: UK General Election
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, July 04, 2024
24 Hours Until Clown Rishi Sunak is Booted Out of Number 10 - UK General Election 2024 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The polls will soon open at 7am today when the British electorate get to give their damning verdict on what will likely be one of the worst governments in British history led by a Clown, Rishi Sunak, a fool who was never fit to be an MP let alone a PM. Not for much longer as this fool will be out of No 10 within 24 hours, the writing is on the wall, Liebour is heading for a landslide election victory of well over 400 seats as the Tories die an electoral death.
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Monday, July 01, 2024
Clown Rishi Delivers Tory Election Bloodbath, Labour 400+ Seat Landslide / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!
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Wednesday, June 26, 2024
UK General Election 2024 Result Forecast / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Mentally soft as a sponge Richi Sunak clearly cannot take the pain of being PM any more even though his job is mostly about reading cue cards handed to him by his handlers, nevertheless Richi has thrown in the towel and declared he does not want to do it for another 6 months, he's had his fun playing at being PM and so announced a General Election for the 4th of July, Richi's Independence Day! Can you imagine that this clown has been PM for 575 days! They used to call John Major a dull boring grey man in a grey suit, but this guy Richi has done a worse job than if Mr Bean had been PM! I do not recall anything that this fool has done over the past 575 days as PM! He was never fit to be an MP let alone PM, his primary focus has always been to get to a net worth of £1 billion! Which is fine and dandy but why the hell make the British people suffer for near 2 years in the process? The Tories deserve to DIE an electoral death, the party needs to undergo a major PURGE!
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Monday, December 09, 2019
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.
However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Saturday, November 30, 2019
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My first article in this UK general election series concluded in a core forecast of seats for the Conservative party based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections - UK house prices momentum.
The remaining articles in this series in the countdown to voting day (December 12th) aim to fine tune my core expectation towards a final seats per party forecast.
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Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.
The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
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Friday, September 13, 2019
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the current state of the parties after Boris Johnson ejected 21 MP's from the Tory party last week.
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Thursday, September 12, 2019
UK General Election 2019 - Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest opinion polls (for what they are worth) show the Tories gaining ground under Boris Johnson's clear cut do or die Brexit leadership, rising from 26% in July to 34% today, virtually all of the gains coming from the Brexit party which fell from 20% to 13%. Whilst the Labour party has stagnated on 24%.
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Monday, July 10, 2017
How to Accurately Forecast the UK General Election in Nine Steps / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In early April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any significant political opposition apart from the SNP's shrill cry for another independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
And so started Britain's decent into chaos, an election campaign that had many Tory supporters asking if Theresa May was actually trying to lose the election by her antics most notable of which was her u-turn on the manifesto dementia tax. Whilst on the other hand the mainstream media was totally blind to the way Jeremy Corbyn was galvanising the anti-austerity vote, where every pundit and forecaster without exception right up until the polls closed on June 8th expected the Conservatives to win with an INCREASED majority, on a tally ranging to as high as 414 seats, though most clustered around 365 seat for the Tories.
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Friday, July 07, 2017
UK Election Forecasting - YouGov Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The most notable outlier forecast of the 2017 UK general election was YouGov's seats forecast announced about 2 weeks prior to the general election that was contrary to every other pollster and analysts at the time. Initially YouGov forecast that the Tories would only achieve 310 seats.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During Mid April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any political opposition apart from Sturgeons shrill cry's for another Independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Are the UK Elections a Forgone Conclusion? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, June 13, 2017
When Will Theresa May 'Dead Woman Walking' Resign? Forecast / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
George Osborne the architect of the Conservative surprise general election victory of 2015 that no one saw coming as every polls based forecaster had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being that for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN just could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne, replaced by May and Hammond.
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
UK General Election Results Map 2017 vs 2015 vs Opinion Polls / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK General Election result of 2017 surprised all just as had the election result of 2015 when every polls based analyst had been expecting a hung parliament with the most probable outcome being for a Labour led coalition government. Instead David Cameron's Tories in 2015 eeked out a small outright majority government that gave the Conservatives the false confidence to go ahead with the EU referendum again based on the opinion polls that REMAIN could not lose, but they did and so did Cameron and Osborne. Now it was the turn of Theresa May to get it very badly wrong, lulled into a false sense of BrExit security as the pollsters this time forecast a certain landslide, when instead the impossible Hung Parliament materialised literally forcing Theresa May into doing a deal with Northern Irelands Protestant fundamentalists.
Friday, June 09, 2017
Theresa May to Resign, Fatal Error Was to Believe Worthless Opinion Polls! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Opinion pollsters have done it again, have got another major election very, very badly wrong. What's worse is that before the start of the campaign were projecting a 20%+ lead that forecast a landside Tory election victory of well over 400 seats, that had convinced a technocratic Theresa May to call a snap general election, that is likely to cost her job as Prime Minister.
I am sure Theresa May is pondering when she should resign, likely immediately given the dismal results as per the BBC's revised forecast of their Exit poll adding 8 seats to their earlier Tory tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats estimate from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives, hence triggering Theresa May's resignation.
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Friday, June 09, 2017
Scotland Saves Tory Government, BBC Revises Exit Poll Forecast to 322, Labour 261, SNP 32 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The BBC have revised their earlier hung parliament exit poll forecast in favour of the Conservatives by adding 8 seats to their earlier tally of 314 to now 322. Whilst at the same time cutting Labours seats total from 266 to 261. Suggesting a disastrous result for the Conservatives. Though at the rate the BBC are revising the Tory seats total higher then they may still achieve an overall majority which means, even at 322 it most definitely is not over for the Conservative government who could continue in government despite damage done to their political capital.
Friday, June 09, 2017
UK Financial Markets Calm in Election Storm, is the BBC Exit Poll Wrong? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implied a shock hung parliament election result that was expected to trigger market panic as happened following the EU Referendum.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
BBC Exit Poll Forecasts Shock Hung Parliament - Conservative 314, Labour 266, SNP 34 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm tonight, the BBC / ITV / Sky joint Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2017 that forecasts a shock election result - Conservatives on 314, Labour on 266, Lib Dems on 14 and the SNP on 34 which implies a shock hung parliament election result! - MARKETS PANIC!
Thursday, June 08, 2017
UK General Election BBC Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of election night, the BBC EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have been all over the place for the past month, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 6 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
Thursday, June 08, 2017
General Election Latest Opinion Polls and Betting Market Forecasts / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2017 General Election has proved to be one of the most volatile elections in terms of the polls for decades, which has seen the opinion polls based forecasters literally playing pin the tail on the donkey since Theresa May called the BrExit election. Virtually all of the pollsters started the campaign by forecasting a Tory landslide Conservative election victory of over 400 seats that mostly persisted until barely to 2 weeks ago as the following table illustrates: