Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, February 01, 2013
Last Burst of Investor Stock Market Optimism? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: EWI
When do investors love stocks the most?
The simple answer is: After a long-term bullish trend has matured.
The S&P 500 recently stood near 5-year highs. And speaking of "recent," consider this investor behavior.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Stock Market Reversal and Touchback Confirms the Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A rally back to a broken trendline is standard operating procedure. It serves two purposes. For the analyst, it confirms the validity of the trendline. For the market, it clears the shorts who put their stops too low. This particular retracement bounce took back 80.5% of the decline. This is another point from which to short the decline. We now have a reversal pattern that also confirms the new trend.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Why The Stock Market Rallies Despite Worries / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
The fiscal cliff, tax increases, the debt ceiling, missed earnings - investors certainly have had much to worry about lately. So why in spite of these fears has the market continued to rally?
There's a Wall Street bromide that succinctly answers this question: "Bull markets climb a wall of worry." Fear tends to fuel higher prices when internal momentum is rising due to short covering and other technical factors. It's normally not until everyone has entered the market that the market finally tops out.
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Thursday, January 31, 2013
Latest Economic Data Enough to Keep the Stock Market Moving Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the stock market’s most perplexing moves for both professional and retail investors is when the market, best represented by the S&P 500, moves in a direction that might be contrary to current conditions regarding economic growth.
This is one of the most difficult concepts to understand; that the S&P 500 does not represent current economic growth conditions, but what the market believes is highly probable for the future.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Stock Market Going for Broke / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Fred_Sheehan
The talk in 2013 has been of the great rotation from bonds to the U.S. stock market. This accompanies a new world record for the Russell 2000 Index (small-cap stocks). The S&P 500 has topped 1,500. It did so twice before, in 2000 and 2007. Here we are, again.
This U.S. stock market view is parochial. There are new world records wherever one looks. Flows (in 2013) into emerging-market stocks, emerging-market bonds, and real estate are raising prices and reducing yields. There are two reasons to step back from the spree. These will be taken in turn, to be followed by an excuse to go for broke.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Going Beyond the Proton Gradient - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Analysis 2013 Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has so far put in a spectacular bull run during January 2013 by putting in a series of new stocks bull market highs across virtually every major indices and this taking place whilst the hottest stock of 2012 having collapsed by 1/3rd - Apple. No one could have imagined that the major stock market indices could make a series of new bull market highs whilst the biggest cap stock was in free fall! Where Apple is concerned it is clearly a case of Samsung having pricked Apple's stock price bubble that looks set to have much further to deflate.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Lindsay Stocks Bull Market Top Forecast 2013 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Ed_Carlson
When forecasting a market high with the methods of George Lindsay, the first step is always the 15-year interval. A period of time which should contain the high we seek is identified by counting from an important low to a time period 15 years to 15 years and 11 months later. Counting from the low of October 1997 identifies such a time period between October 2012 and September 2013.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Handle.... Stock Market Remains Overbought.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
And overbought is overbought, which means, at some point in the not too distant future, the market is going to take a decent hit to the down side in order to wash away the overbought oscillators. They will need to reset some point soon, so don't be shocked when the Dow has a triple-digit down day in the near future. It doesn't mean we don't go higher first. It just means the upside action is limited for a while, until the market can gain more energy from the overbought oscillators. The longer you stay overbought, and the more overbought you actually get without unwinding, the more intense the selling is when it hits. We saw that in many stocks today that took some devastating hits on either a simple downgrade from overbought or simply because they were violently overbought with RSI's ranging from the mid 70's to as high as 90.
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Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Be Careful of the S&P 500 Three-Headed Dragon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The S&P 500 is at a crux, following its recent move to 1,502 on Thursday, the first time it was above 1,500 since December 2007. The index is up nearly 12% since July 24, 2012. The fear is that the index may be testing its third top at 1,500 since 2000, something I have discussed in the past.
The overall U.S. stock market is trending higher. About 75.2% of U.S. stocks are above their respective 200-day moving averages (MAs), versus 59.3% a month earlier. On a short-term basis, 86.2% of U.S. stocks are above their respective 50-day MAs, versus 63.6% a month earlier.
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Is the 86% Obama Stock Market Rally the Real Deal? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Money_Morning
At first glance, there can be no doubt that U.S. President Barack Obama has been good for the stock market.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has rallied by nearly 700 points - just shy of 86% - since the president's first Inauguration on Jan. 20, 2009.
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Monday, January 28, 2013
Stock Market Rally Continues to Frustrate the Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the severe correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
Intermediate trend - It is unclear if, by rising to a new bull market high, SPX has started a new intermediate uptrend or still needs to complete its intermediate correction.
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Sunday, January 27, 2013
Stock Market Still Waiting / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: WavePatternTraders
From last week's report, the markets have not done much, other that chop and around, although they did move a little bit higher. My main wave count is still applicable at this time; I don't see anything at this time to concern me, although should the markets go on a tear to the upside I will obviously have to consider my options, but as it stands I still like the idea of a potential reversal setting up.
Is it time to put on the bear suits? Currently the answer is still a no, although the potential is there, the trend is still up and must be respected until we see a breakdown.
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Sunday, January 27, 2013
World Stock Markets Rally Moderates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: PhilStockWorld
Doug Short writes: The world rally continued this past week, but the momentum has eased. The eight indexes in our focus group posted an average gain of 0.64% for the week, about half the 1.25% gain from the previous weekly close. The global rotation changed conspicuously, with the four Asia-Pacific indexes occupying the top four slots, a complete reversal from what we saw last weekend. China’s Shanghai Composite, the top weekly gainer last Friday, dropped to last place this week.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stocks New Bull Market High's Leaves Bears Foaming at the Mouth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has so far put in a spectacular bull run for January 2013, which has surprised both bulls and bears as all of the major stock market indices set new bull market highs, including the index which I track and trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Averages which is now within touching distance of 14,000.
Meanwhile delusional bears right across the globe can literally be seen foaming at the mouths as illustrated by the diatribe that continues spew out of commentary of an always imminent bear market, crash, collapse etc... When the reality is as the following charts illustrate that not only have they and everyone who listened to them missed out on what is a stocks bull market that is approaching the END of its FOURTH YEAR ! But that have actively been betting against an exceptionally strong recent bull run that is the exact mirror image of the crash that they have been so furiously proclaiming as always being imminent.
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Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock, Gold Miners and Commodities are Nearing Major Turning Points / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In recent weeks we've written about the decoupling or negative correlation between the equity market and mining equities. As the miners take a hard turn lower and the S&P 500 continues higher, this current trend is all the more obvious. At the same time, commodity prices have been in a cyclical bear and have struggled to gain traction. Our forecast for 2013 is for these cyclical trends to shift. It won't happen instantly but it will slowly evolve in the coming months and quarters. Today, we see that the equity market is ever more closer to that cyclical top, miners are about to retest a major bottom and hard assets have a new catalyst.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock Market Cycle Top Resistance, The Crash Starts Here / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is at its Cycle Top resistance at all degrees of trend. You can see the upper trading band coming down in a “squeeze.” This is often a signal of a top. SPX is still within the parameters of the Fibonacci study that I had done on Monday. The market is simply extracting the money out of the most investors that it can.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Stock Market’s History of Seasonality Continues! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Sy_Harding
Once again the stock market’s favorable season is producing an impressive rally. The Dow has gained more than 10% since its November low, with the rally accelerating in the new year, a 7% gain in just the last 4 weeks.
There are certainly reasons for optimism and the market rally.
As it has for the last three years, the economic recovery has resumed impressively after its summer stumble. Most U.S. economic reports, in housing, employment, retail sales, manufacturing, are beating even optimistic forecasts. The euro-zone debt crisis has moved out of the headlines, ECB president Draghi’s promise of “whatever it takes” having successfully kicked the crisis down the road. In Asia, fears that China’s economy was slowing into a hard landing have been alleviated by several months of much better than expected economic reports.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Stock Market High Complacency, The Bear Will Decimate Your Wealth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets have been surging in one heck of a January rally. The combination of the fiscal-cliff tax deal and generally solid Q4 earnings have propelled stocks to their best levels in 5 years. But these gains have been accompanied by stellar complacency. Traders are extremely bullish, convincing themselves this rally is only beginning. But high complacency near major highs really means serious downside risk.
As of the middle of this week, the flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) was up 4.8% month-to-date. Over half these gains came on January’s opening trading day, on great relief that Obama’s record tax hikes were averted for most Americans. The SPX then kept on marching higher on decent Q4 earnings, hitting 8 new cyclical-bull highs in just 13 trading days! It’s on track for its best January performance since 1997.
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Friday, January 25, 2013
Mixed Stock Market Day, AAPL Pulling Nasdaq Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market had a very interesting, mixed day today, with the indices blue chips up slightly. The Dow was up, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq 100 was down as Apple dropped a whopping 63.51, after the earnings report, on 52 million shares. This stock is fractionally under 450.00 in afterhours trading and is pretty much a disaster. It has gone from 705 to 450 in just a couple months.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Apple APPL Stock is Leading Stock Market Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
AAPL’s nearly 65 point drop last night is not being favored with much of a dead cat bounce this morning. Part of the great unwind last night was a “long AAPL/short ES” paired trade gone sour. The momentum-chasing hedge funds couldn’t resist the concept, especially after the SPX decline going into the year-end. Unfortunately, AAPL’s momentum fizzled while the SPX went higher. The trade became a lose/lose proposition with no merit, especially after AAPL’s lackluster earnings report last night.