Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Stock Markets Are Still Loving The Economy’s Increasing Problems / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
The economic reports turn ever uglier, and the stock market loves it.
Something seems wrong with that picture.
In recent months, it has been the unexpected widening of the U.S. trade gap, as exports decline and imports rise. It has been unexpected plunges in retail sales, home sales, auto sales, durable goods orders, and factory orders. It has been downward revisions of previous reports for December.
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Thursday, February 20, 2014
Will the SPX drop 100 points? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I had expected a small bounce, then a test of Intermediate-term support at 1815.70 before a retracement bounce. Instead, the decline was shallower and the ensuing bounce a bit steeper. But it appears that the bounce may be (nearly) over already.
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Thursday, February 20, 2014
Fed There To Protect..... Overbought Stock Market Finally Unwinds..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
Ok, back to basics folks. What is the job of the Fed? We've gone over this many times. The Fed has one job and only one job. To watch the stock market. When Wall Street is happy Main Street is happy. The Fed admits to understanding technical points of concern price-wise. They know when markets are in trouble, and their job is to make sure the market doesn't have too many troubles. Trouble on Wall Street means their stress level is on the rise, and that they will have to move into action. To change what they're doing. So in order to prevent that, they come out with many statements throughout each month to tell us all what they're thinking. They want to remind Wall Street as often as possible that they've got their back.
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Thursday, February 20, 2014
No Story Behind Wednesday’s Stock Market Decline - and that’s Not a Bad Thing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Ronan Keenan writes: There is no clear explanation for Wednesday’s S&P 500 decline, but that’s nothing new. Markets have rallied and sold-off this year without any significant changes in the macro environment, leaving analysts to scramble for drivers of the daily moves. There were any number of reasons given for the day’s 0.65% decline, ranging from turmoil in Ukraine to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and even the potential terror threat from explosives hidden in shoes.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Many Are Still Betting on a Calm Stock Market. We're Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
Here's one good reason why: a historic market sentiment extreme
The DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ are struggling to bounce. Yet the bullish convictions remain high. Says a February 5 Investor's Business Daily headline:
"Why Mutual Fund Investors Need Not Panic After January Sell-Off"
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Resilient Sentiment Helps Stock Market Grind Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Ronan Keenan writes: The grind higher continued for stocks on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 just 40 basis points from recouping the year’s losses. This year’s trough was 6.1%, the steepest drawdown since late-2012, but it’s starting to seem a distant memory. Yet nothing has fundamentally changed to incite the recovery over the last couple of weeks. Then again, nothing really changed to start the selloff in January.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Recent Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Stock Market SPX Rally May be Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX could not fill its final open gap at 1844.86. It now appears that it is breaking down. The first support is at 1830.00. If that doesn’t hold, there may be a short bounce at the 50-day moving average at 1810.99. There is nothing but free-fall beneath the 50-day.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Stock Market New Uptrend Still in Doubt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - New uptrend still in doubt
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Relentless Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market opened the week at SPX 1797, dipped to 1792 early Monday, then rallied with only one notable pullback to 1842 by Friday. And all this occurred during market hours, as the only gap opening on the week was a lower one on Thursday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.3%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9%, and the DJ World index rose 2.4%. On the economic front negative reports again outpaced positive ones. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, export/import prices and the M1-multiplier. On the downtick: retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, the WLEI, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week we get reports on the NY/Philly FED, the CPI/PPI and Housing.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Dow and Nikkei Stock Index Elliott Wave Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Dan_Stinson
There has been extensive discussion on the relationship between the Nikkei and the DOW, especially after the recent decline for the Nikkei. The three charts below illustrate the relationship and suggest that we could see a DOW top while the Nikkei completes wave (2) up. The overlay chart below illustrates that the Nikkei and the DOW have topped out together and within months of each other since the bear market began for the Nikkei in 1990.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Is Stock Market Correction Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market (Dow) last week confounded the heights of a another new bear market rhetoric by bouncing to close decidedly back above 16k at 16,154, this despite a week of bad economic data such as a suprise fall in industrial production of 0.3% against expectations for a 0.2% increase (polar vortex bad weather effect). Off course for the perma-bear crowd the weeks rally just represents a minor correction to further short into. Therefore was last weeks rally a last gasp before the great bear market resumes? Or was it the end of what amounts to a relatively minor correction that signals the resumption of the stocks 'stealth' bull market?
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Stock Market Moving Vertically...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
So what more can I really add. I can stop this letter right here by simply stating we're in a bull market that still has concerns with regards to sentiment to some degree. Not as bad as one month ago, but still concerns. Ok, letter over. Anything I add from here isn't going to be earth shattering. The market continues to defy logic from a fundamental perspective. Yes, we're still in Disneyland. The worse off the economy is the better it is for the stock market. A not so great economy equals the continuation of lower rates. Lower rates equal a bull market.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Stocks Final Parabolic Bubble Spike - Great Inflation Scenerio 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Toby_Connor
Today another piece fell into place in my Great Inflation scenario that I'm expecting for 2014.
Before I begin let me recap. My overarching driver for the Great Inflation scenario is that the dollar would have some kind of crisis, or semi-crisis late this year as it drops down into its major three year cycle low. All other stock and commodity movements will be driven by this impending currency crisis.
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Stock Market Margin Debt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Fred_Sheehan
John Hussman (Hussman Funds) wrote in his February 3, 2014, Weekly Market Comment: "The latest data from the NYSE shows equity margin debt at a new all-time high. Relative to GDP, the current 2.6% level was eclipsed only once - at the March 2000 market peak."
The ratio of margin debt is usually - at least, often - calculated in comparison to the market value of stocks. Later in his Comment, Hussman explains his choice: "We use GDP here because margin debt to GDP has a much higher correlation with actual subsequent market returns than say, margin debt/market capitalization (which destroys information by muting the indicator exactly at points when prices are extremely elevated or depressed)."
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Thursday, February 13, 2014
Stock Market Showing Strength....Spread Lower Still... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
It is so interesting to watch how rapidly something can happen within the machine known as the stock market. It wasn't very long ago that the bull-bear spread was 46%. Bulls themselves we're at 61%, an incredibly high number. This morning, based on last Friday's market close, bulls were down to 41% with the actual spread down to 24.4% from 46% in basically a month or so. Amazing how fast fear can take over and cause those bulls to change to either agnostic or outright bearish. Fear is the toughest emotion all stock-market players have to deal with.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Trigger Points and Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Pre-Market is flat this morning. The SPX made a perfect reversal pattern and now it needs the decline.
The trigger point (make sure you are short) in SPX is the 50-day moving average at 1809.25. I normally would expect to see a stair-step decline through the rest of the week, but anything may happen.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market No Worries – Dammit Janet, We Love You! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: PhilStockWorld
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The future is ours so let's plan it, Janet
If there's one fool for you then I am it, Janet
Now I've one thing to say and that's
Dammit, Janet, I love you…
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Stock Market Calling Down the Thunder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jesse
Initial Claims and Retail Sales might provide some economic grist for the market's mills on Thursday, but for today it was all bullishness as the thin volumes and lack of organic selling let stocks take off on the news that there will be a clear debt ceiling bill up for a vote tonight, and Janet Yellen's pandering to the corporate classes in her testimony today.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Stock Market Three Peaks and a (Complex) Domed House / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Ed_Carlson
The internet has been abuzz for several weeks about an analogue (discovered by Tom DeMark and popularized by Tom McClellan and others) of the bull market top in 1929 and our current market. I haven’t touched on Lindsay’s best-known model, Three Peaks and a Domed House (3PDh), since my August 19, 2013 commentary. With a fresh look we will discover that today’s Dow Industrials index has even more in common with 1929 than seen in the popular analogue. We can also develop a price forecast for the bottom of the new bear market.
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