Category: Coronavirus Depression
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Crushing the States, Saving the Banks: The Fed’s Generous New Rules / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Ellen_Brown
The new terms could be harnessed for local governments to own and operate their own banks.
Congress seems to be at war with the states. Only $150 billion of its nearly $3 trillion coronavirus relief package – a mere 5% – has been allocated to the 50 states; and they are not allowed to use it where they need it most, to plug the holes in their budgets caused by the mandatory shutdown. On April 22, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was opposed to additional federal aid to the states, and that his preference was to allow states to go bankrupt.
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Wednesday, May 06, 2020
A Tale of Two Economic Depressions / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Richard_Mills
As the coronavirus continues to hammer state and provincial economies, politicians are being forced to consider whether lockdown “cures” are worse than the disease. Pressured by the Trump administration, and in some cases the public, several US states are planning a re-opening, or partial re-opening of their economies, sometime in May.
About half of Canadian provinces and territories are also in the midst of a re-start of some description; among those still locked down are British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland/ Labrador.
The question weighing on the minds of both health officials and economists, is whether letting up on social distancing restrictions will cause the number of covid-19 cases to spike, thereby setting back virus containment efforts and the timeline of economic recovery. Yet regardless of what comes next, it doesn’t take a lot of analysis to see we are already in a heap of trouble.
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Monday, May 04, 2020
US Q1 GDP Data Masking The True Global Economic Future? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As Q1 GDP data is released on Wednesday, April 29, which will reflect the first three months of 2020 in terms of total economic output, we believe the number will skew the current true global economic conditions to a large degree. The pandemic shutdowns started in the US on March 15th – nearly 2 weeks before the end of Q1:2020. Thus, we had a fairly normal Q1 in terms of economic activity, production, and consumer engagement. Everything changed after March 15th, 2020.
Skilled traders need to watch the current economic data and “week over week” data that is presented. Skilled traders also need to pay attention to the news items that are being pushed out to the public. Larger and larger corporations and sectors are moving towards bankruptcy or screaming for a bailout. Airlines, Hotels, Car Rental, and dozens of other sectors have all collapsed over the past 5+ weeks. We expect real estate activity and pricing to collapse as well. The results of the last 5+ weeks, after the March 15th shutdown started, have been anything but normal.
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Sunday, May 03, 2020
No, the Economy Isn’t Re-Opening Soon / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
“America will be open for business very soon,” said President Trump on March 23, just a week after local authorities began issuing stay-at-home orders.
At that point, the novel coronavirus had killed a total of 689 Americans. Now, a little over a month later, 689 deaths would be a really good day. And America still isn’t open for business. But the president and some governors think it should be and are trying to make it so.
Unfortunately, politicians can’t order the economy open again because they didn’t close it. Consumers and businesses began shutting down long before they were forced to, and they won’t re-open just because they legally can.
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Thursday, April 30, 2020
The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It looks like the history books will need to be rewritten for if the noises emanating out of every nick and economic cranny are to be believed for the global economy is heading for an economic contraction WORSE than that of the Great Depression! Which will make the Financial Crisis of 2008 look like a walk in the park. And this is not from the usual perma doom merchants who like a broken clock will eventually be right.
However, even the UK governments Office for State Economic Propaganda (OBR) has warned to expect UK GDP to plunge by an unprecedented 35% in Q2!
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Sunday, April 26, 2020
A Baby Boomer's Government Response to Covid-19 Plea / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger voices frustration with his own generation, which has "turned a blind eye" to the radical, fiscal and moral principles that shaped it.
I was born in the 1950s, a decade dominated by thousands of WWII servicemen marrying and starting families in the creation of the largest demographic in history, the "Baby Boom Generation." The 1950s saw Elvis Presley dominate the entertainment industry with ten #1 hits and the top box office movie was Disney's "Cinderella." Actors and actresses in the limelight included John Wayne and Marilyn Monroe, and the most popular sports figures were Jackie Robinson, Maurice Richard and Rocky Marciano, while politics were dominated by Eisenhower, Castro and Khrushchev. It was the decade that ushered in a "Cold War," which was the prelude to major attitudinal events of the '60s, including the Bay of Pigs Crisis and the assassination of JFK in '63.
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Wednesday, April 22, 2020
The Coming Impact of Coronavirus Economic Contraction in ASEAN Countries / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the COVID-19 earthquake and a historical contraction, China is rebounding, whereas advanced economies face a depression-like plunge. The consequent tsunami is about to hit Southeast Asia.
As the total number of confirmed cases may exceed 3 million and deaths will surpass 200,000 in a matter of days, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 80% % of both. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, thanks to the belated mobilizations in Europe and the US.
As I predicted in a mid-March briefing (TMT, March 23), what is about to follow is the great coronavirus contraction. Its economic impact will be comparable to the 1930s Great Depression. With more data available today, we have a better idea what’s about to happen, despite extraordinary uncertainty.
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Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Coronavirus Burning Down the House / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: James_Quinn
Watch out you might get what you’re after
Hold tight wait till the party’s over
Hold tight We’re in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
Talking Heads – Burning Down the House
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Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Bob Moriarty's Thoughts on the Coronavirus / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold shares his thoughts on the coronavirus.
If there was ever a time for real leaders to step forward and lead, the last four months would have been the time to do so. If there was an issue that demanded cooperation from all the nations of the world, we have seen it. Instead we have been fed a steady diet of disinformation and outright lies from almost every government at most levels. If these are the leaders, we ought to fire the whole lot and start anew. Instead of "women and children first," we are seeing "every man for himself."
I've been fairly quiet for the last ten days or so and a lot of people have been bugging me to write more. Certainly this is an important issue so I'll give you my thoughts.
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Monday, April 20, 2020
COVID-19 and the Greater Recession / Depression of 2020-2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Christopher_Quigley
In February2012, utilising the chart below, I published an essay courtesy of Market Oracle outlining how, based on Kondratieff wave theory, the world economy could head into a depression between 2013 and 2020. We are now entering that depression, or at least great recession, in my humble opinion. This long wave analysis was developed by Nikolai Kondratiev, a Russian economist. He was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. He saw recessions and depressions as normal cycles of the capitalist system due to its reliance on debt. He explained that:
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
Why the Coronavirus Could Raise Wages / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
US unemployment shot higher in the last month, thanks to coronavirus closures. Some 17 million people filed new jobless benefit claims.
But it’s actually even worse.
Overwhelmed web sites and bureaucratic snafus kept many from applying. Others, while still nominally “employed,” saw their wages or hours cut. It’s terrible and will keep getting worse until the shutdowns ease and people believe they can circulate safely again.
But while the immediate outlook is dire, these events could ultimately mean higher wages for many workers. To see why, we have to think a few steps ahead.
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Sunday, April 19, 2020
An Alternative to the Lockdown Strategy in the Fight Against Coronavirus / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a sure-fire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
SILVER AND COVID-19, CAPITALISM’S BLACK SWAN / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Regarding today’s markets and gold and silver, on April 15th, Sandeep Jaitly wrote:
COURSE OF THE EXCHANGE
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
Metals update: backwardation or not?
Over the past few weeks and months, there have been seismic changes in the way people are thinking of markets – and the concept of markets – generally.
As evidenced by movements in the Federal Reserve’s sale and repurchase facility from last September, which has resulted in the TARP balance sheet reaching a record of $6,000bn and at a record rate of over $630bn/month since the year began, there are ‘issues’ with all markets – in as much as markets are markets with ‘monetary’ fiat.
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Saturday, April 18, 2020
If Stock Investors Crunched Economic Data Like This Their Expectations Would Change Dramatically / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
New economic data being released as earnings start to hit may alter how investors perceive the recent price recovery in the US and global markets. Many institutional analysts began suggesting “the bottom is in” and recently began to issue stronger forward guidance. The new data suggests we are seeing an economic contraction that, in some cases, maybe 2x or 3x the contraction that took place in the 2008-09 Credit Crisis.
The US stock markets reacted to this news and earnings data by collapsing over -2% in early trading. Gold and Silver are both lower as we write this article which would indicate weakness across the broader market. We continue to believe a deeper price low will set up in the near future with the US and global stock prices attempting to retest recent price lows – possibly falling below these levels. We believe the collateral damage to consumer engagement, manufacturing, transportation, retail/leisure, real estate and other sectors of the economy is just now starting to become evident. What the economy may look like near Mid-May is anyone’s guess.
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Thursday, April 16, 2020
Fed Caught Off Guard by Coronavirus Economic Shock. And Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Another week passed, and the number of jobless claims increased further. That was clearly not expected by the Fed, as the recent minutes shows. What does it all mean for the gold market?
Unemployment Claims Rose Further
Initial jobless claims have become one the most important data about the US economy these days. So, let’s take a look at the chart below, which offers the updated graph revealing the number of new claims for unemployment benefits.
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
All of the Coronavirus Depression Economic Recovery Models Will Be Wrong Too / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: MoneyMetals
“All of the projection models were wrong. All of them,” admitted New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in an interview last week with MSNBC.
Governor Cuomo had been issuing frantic demands for tens of thousands of ventilators... that turned out not to be needed as the rate of new hospitalizations for COVID-19 infections in New York plunged with surprising speed.
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020
The Wuhan Virus Pricked the Everything Bubble / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Michael_Pento
Inflationary and Insolvency Implosion of the Bond Market
We are all praying for the Wuhan virus to die. But there is something the virus can actually “cure” itself: deflation. I put the word cure in quotes because it's not an actual issue in reality. Low inflation and disinflation are actually great conditions to enjoy and help an economy thrive. Increasing the purchasing power of consumers is something that should be cherished and targeted goal. Increases in productivity, along with a strong currency, raises your standard of living. In sharp contrast, Central Banks think any rate of inflation that is less than 2% is a deadly economic disease that must be vanquished faster than the Wuhan virus.
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Monday, April 13, 2020
Coronavirus Socialism / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
When (hopefully soon) we all get out of coronavirus lockdown and try to resume normal life, we will probably find a different “normal.”
The best-case outcome: scientists discover a “magic bullet” treatment that quickly restores the most serious cases to health. We could then ease restrictions and get on with business.
But more likely, any such treatment is months away and a vaccine probably a year away, so many precautions will have to stay in place. We won’t see large gatherings and crowded restaurants anytime soon.
But we’ll see something else: a radically different economic structure.
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Sunday, April 12, 2020
Will Fed and Trump Save the US Economy And Sink Gold? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Trump administration will seek an additional $250 billion to support small businesses hurt by the widespread economic shutdown and slowdown. Will the government and the Fed save the US economy? What would be the consequences for the gold market?US Epidemiological Update
As of April 7, more than 360,000 people were confirmed to be infected by the coronavirus in the US, and more than 10,000 out of them died because of the COVID-19, as the chart below shows. Actually, the US is entering the worst period of the epidemic, as hospitals are struggling to maintain and expand capacity to care for infected patients.
Wednesday, April 08, 2020
The Post CoronaVirus New Normal / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
I don’t think anyone believes we will go to back to anything like January 2020 normalcy anytime soon. We have no idea, even if restaurants and everything open, what shopping patterns will look like.
Are we learning to live on less in our isolation? Seeing your 401(k) become a 201(k) may postpone a car-buying decision or two.
My daughter (see below) works for a cheerleading gymnastics company. Nationwide this is a multi-hundred-million-dollar industry. Will they just open back up and expect all the girls go back on day one? Will their parents be able to afford it? We’re talking many tens of thousands of jobs. Personal trainers? Many jobs will be under pressure.
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