Category: Coronavirus Depression
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
What Makes This Recession Different From the Rest / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
"It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job;
it's a depression when you lose yours."
—Harry S. Truman, 33rd US President
In recent weeks, numerous commentators started to suggest the US and the world are entering a depression.
For some areas of the economy, that is clearly true. But not every area.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Economic Data Suggests Reopening, not Recovery. Will Gold Re-Rally Now? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Retail sales growth has slowed down. What does it mean for the U.S. economy and the gold market?Retail sales increased 1.2 percent in July. The growth was worse than expected, which hit the U.S. stock market. As the chart below shows, the number was also much weaker than in the two previous months (8.4 percent gain in June and 18.3 percent jump in May), when it seemed that the economy started to rebound.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
The Tragedy of More Missed COVID-19 Opportunities / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
According to a new report, US states are the most virus-affected relative to major economies. As COVID-19 has proceeded in two phases, containment failures in the West continue to fuel the pandemic and economic damage.
In April, my first COVID-19 report focused on the progression of the pandemic from China to Western Europe and the United States, and the belated mobilization and containment failure in Washington and Brussels.
My new report The Tragedy of More Missed Opportunities , which is also released by Shanghai Institutes for International Studies [with Chinese introduction], focuses on the new missedCOVID-19 opportunities and the consequent human costs and economic damage in the largest world economies, particularly in emerging and developing countries.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 16, 2020
Hyper-Chaotic Expectations Could Collapse US Economic Recovery Expectations / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As much as we may not want to deal with the reality of the situation, recent news from the state of California suggests it and many other states may be reaching the fiscal boundaries of the COVID-19 economic contraction. The reality of the economic situation is that when consumers are restricted from normal activities, taxes, sales, and revenues decrease for the state exponentially. States that depend on consumers and business activity with very large budgets are at greater risk of experiencing immediate fiscal issues the longer the COVID-19 virus event continues. A recent Moody’s Analytics article suggested Nevada, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Florida, DC, and Connecticut would be hit the hardest by the COVID-19 virus.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 05, 2020
ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE? / Politics / Coronavirus Depression
By: James_Quinn
“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.” ― Aldous Huxley, Brave New World
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” ― George Orwell, 1984
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Protracted G7 Economic Contraction – or Multiyear Global Depression / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
Global growth prospects are deteriorating. Instead of a V-shaped recovery in the 2nd quarter, advanced economies will face historical carnage and a prolonged contraction. But there’s still worse ahead.
Current estimates for major advanced economies remain too optimistic, due to the mismanagement of the COVID-19, belated responses and premature exits, which have now caused far-earlier-than-expected secondary virus waves. As a result, the hoped-for V-shaped recovery will not happen in the 2nd quarter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 19, 2020
The Six-Year Jobs Recession / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
Most of us work for some form of paycheck, even the self-employed. Few subsist on their own efforts. Even retirees, politicians, and welfare recipients live off someone’s labor, if not their own.
Savings, if you have any, are the result of past labor. That makes a job shortage problematic for everyone, not just the jobless.
The June US employment report showed some welcome improvement. Businesses brought back many workers as parts of the country reopened. That’s great but it was only a start. We need several more months like that, and it’s not at all clear they are coming.
To be fair, there isn’t a lot of clarity when we look back at past data, either.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 08, 2020
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
“The future progression of the pandemic remains highly uncertain.”
The Federal Reserve wrote those words to Congress in its recent “Monetary Policy Report.” These are usually rather vague, dry documents on everything the Fed is doing right and what could possibly go wrong. This report is more interesting than usual because so many things have gone wrong and may get even worse.
Not that the Fed has good answers, of course. But here’s what it does know.
Many of the first countries the virus struck—China, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Italy, Spain—brought it under control with aggressive lockdowns, testing, contact tracing, social distancing, and isolation of confirmed cases.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 06, 2020
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
The US economy entered recession at the end of February, according to the economists who officially define such things. But will it get even worse?
In some ways, this is already beyond the 1930s Great Depression. Mass unemployment happened much faster this time and it looks like millions will be jobless for a long time.
We can identify recessions statistically, but “Depression” is fuzzier.
Geopolitics expert George Friedman noted recently that recessions are a cyclical financial process. They’re painful, but the economy recovers. A depression is more than an especially severe recession. It changes the existential reality of daily life. The financial, business, and job consequences are only the beginning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 02, 2020
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
Recently, the IMF downgraded most growth projections, due to weaker private consumption and elevated uncertainty in investment. Those are the twin engines of the Philippine economy. So, what’s ahead for economic recovery?
As I wrote in a report 2 months ago (click here), the global economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund (April 2020) was too optimistic. Last week, the IMF downgraded most of its projections. Now global growth is projected at -4.9% in 2020, almost 2 percentage points below the previous forecast.
Consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, due to the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. Worse, investment is expected to remain subdued as firms defer capital expenditures amid elevated uncertainty.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 19, 2020
Worse than expected coronavirus contraction in ASEAN-4 Economies / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the coming months, success or failure to contain the global pandemic and overcome the coronavirus contraction has potential to make or break the promise of Southeast Asia in the early 21st century.
By the end of the 2nd quarter, the total number of confirmed cases may total close to 10 million, while deaths could surpass 225,000. What was an epidemic in China at the turn of January and February grew into a pandemic in the 1st quarter, due to the belated and inadequate mobilizations in the US and Europe.
In early year, the epicenter of the virus was in China and the rest of Asia. By March-April, it had moved to Europe and the United States. As I projected three months ago, global devastation would escalate by summer as the epicenter is shifting to emerging and particularly developing economies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Economic Decline And New World Order / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We find it interesting how researchers attempt to compare history, sometimes ancient history, to the applicable functions of today’s world and to attempt to translate the decline of empires in the past to what is happening in today’s world. Ray Dalio appears to be suggesting the rise of the Chinese economy and economic capabilities is going to threaten to unseat the US as a world super-power.
Within Ray Dalio’s article, he suggests the following which seems to sum up his cycle theory:
“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As the prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers there is typically some kind of war. Out of these debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 17, 2020
The Great Economy Reopening Gamble / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
We knew the April US jobs data would be ugly. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week” program last Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari predicted “the worst is yet to come.”
Kashkari is right; this won’t get better while so much of the economy is sidelined. The stay-at-home orders, while they help reduce coronavirus spread, have other side effects, too. Domestic violence increases, children miss educational opportunities, people with other health conditions go untreated. These are real problems.
The question is how to reopen without making the situation worse. Kashkari had some advice on that, too: “To solve the economy, we must solve the virus.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 15, 2020
Coronavirus Will Wipe Out These Three Industries for Good / Companies / Coronavirus Depression
By: Stephen_McBride
From No. 1. to BANKRUPT. In less than two years.
My uncle used to be a chef in Australia’s top restaurant, Banc. The place was always packed. Regular customers included media mogul Rupert Murdoch and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.
And it was run by top Irish chef Liam Tomlin. Lots of Banc’s customers were international businessfolk in town for work. And this was the place to go if you wanted to impress clients.
But then disaster struck. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, air travel ground to a halt. Banc went from Australia’s most-exclusive restaurant, to bankrupt in less than two years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Inflation, Deflation, or Both? / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: MoneyMetals
The forces of deflation and inflation continue to tug at the economy simultaneously.
The pressures on both sides are huge.
On the deflation side, jobs, industrial demand, and the small business lifeblood of communities are contracting at an unprecedented pace. Meanwhile, trillions in credit card, auto, student loan, and mortgage debt that props up consumer spending and home values is at risk of imploding – and bringing markets down with it.
On the inflation side, the Federal Reserve is pumping more than $6 trillion into the financial system.
Meanwhile, all pretenses of needing to be fiscally responsible are being discarded in Washington as Congress pushes stimulus after stimulus with money it doesn’t technically have.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: James_Quinn
“At some point, America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
I’ve been writing articles about the Fourth Turning for over a decade and nothing has happened since its tumultuous onset in 2008, with the global financial collapse, created by the Federal Reserve and their Wall Street co-conspirator owners, that has not followed along the path described by Strauss and Howe in their 1997 book – The Fourth Turning.
Like molten lava bursting forth from a long dormant (80 years) volcano, the core elements of this Fourth Turning continue to flow along channels of distress, long ago built by bad decisions, corrupt politicians and the greed of bankers. The molten ingredients of this Crisis have been the central drivers since 2008 and this second major eruption is flowing along the same route. The core elements are debt, civic decay, and global disorder, just as Strauss & Howe anticipated over two decades ago.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 11, 2020
Finding Winners in the Wreckage of the Coronavirus Economic Downturn / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Frank_Holmes
While the broader markets have seen sharp declines, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, homes in on gold, gold stocks and bitcoin, and gives his prognosis for the airlines.
Streetwise Reports: Let's start with gold, which has seen an impressive rise in the last few months as the broader markets have declined on the back of the coronavirus pandemic. What do you think is ahead for the metal?
Frank Holmes: There is a short-term view and a long-term view. What's really hard for so many investors and asset allocators to recognize is that gold bullion since 2000 has far outperformed the S&P 500. In fact, of the last 20 years, in 16 of those years gold has been positive. So if we look at the numbers, it's double what the S&P 500 has done for the past 20 years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 10, 2020
US Rates Eye Negative Territory as Capital Prepares for Slow Death / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets appear to be gearing up for another leg higher. On Thursday, the metals complex rose sharply across the board. Gold gained about 2.5% while silver packed on nearly 4%.
Both of the monetary metals showed signs of breaking out of the sideways trading ranges they’ve been stuck in over the past four weeks. Silver closed solidly above its 50-day moving average for the first time since late February.
Bulls will be looking for confirmation with strong weekly closes today and then follow-through early next week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 08, 2020
The Giant Presumption behind Re-Opening America / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Patrick_Watson
Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them.
In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon.
At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out.
But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 07, 2020
Covid-19: Major Risks as US Eyes Re-Open / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Dr_David_J_Harris
SUMMARY
This article provides a quick review of the current state of the US lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Major risks lie ahead in terms of re-starting the US economy without re-igniting the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus.
- Current number of active cases is 50x the number when US lock-down started
- Peak number of US active cases still not yet reached, and likely weeks away
- Peak number of deaths for US in a day, observed relatively recently
- Model projections are predicting at least 100,000 US deaths by May 31
- Contact tracing in today’s complex society is a major problem to overcome
- The US is now in a recession that could last at least 12 to 18 months