Category: Gold and Silver 2021
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 31, 2021
Will 2022 Be Better for Gold Than 2021? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
2021 was bad for gold. Unfortunately, 2022 doesn’t look any better, especially at the beginning. The end, however, gives the yellow metal some hope…
Bye, bye 2021! It definitely wasn’t a year of gold. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal lost 5% of its value over the last twelve months, declining from $1,887.60 on December 30, 2020, to $1,794.25 on December 29, 2021. Thus, the gold bulls won’t miss 2021, I guess.
Friday, December 31, 2021
Gold Stocks – Wishing And Hoping (And Losing) / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD STOCKS – WISHING AND HOPING
As is the case with both silver (see Waiting On Silver) and gold, so too has the waiting game proved to be unprofitable for gold stocks. Wishing and hoping for better results doesn’t change the reality of losing (losing – “failing to gain or retain; being deprived of”).
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Thursday, December 30, 2021
Overvalued Stocks and Housing Perfect Storm for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nick_Barisheff
In December 1997, The Financial Times ran an article entitled “The Death of Gold.” Since then, the gold price in US dollars has increased 519% from $288 to $1,780. Today, after many political events and crises we have evidence of the continuous and in many ways spectacular growth of the gold price. This confluence of many current events is creating a perfect storm for gold to increase dramatically more than we imagined.
Currency Devaluation
Typically, currency devaluation is always at the heart of a rising gold price. This has been taking place in all of the major fiat currencies, resulting in an average annual price increase in gold of over 10% since 2000.
Read full article... Read full article...For the naïve there is something miraculous in the issuance of fiat money. A magic word spoken by the government creates out of nothing a thing which can be exchanged against any merchandise a man would like to get. How pale is the art of sorcerers, witches, and conjurors when compared with that of the government’s Treasury Department.”
Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Is the End of Transitory Inflation the End of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The debate about the nature of inflation is over. Now the question is what the end of transitory inflation implies for gold. I offer two perspectives.Welcome, my son. Welcome to the inflationary machine. Welcome to the new economic regime of elevated inflation. That’s official because even central bankers have finally admitted what I’ve been saying for a long time: the current high inflation is not merely a transitory one-off price shock. In a testimony before Congress, Jerome Powell agreed that “it’s probably a good time to retire” the word “transitory” in relation to inflation. Bravo, Jay! It took you only several months longer than my freshmen students to figure it out, but better late than never. Actually, even a moderately intelligent chimpanzee would notice that inflation is not merely temporary just by looking at the graph below.
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Friday, December 24, 2021
Strong 2021 Demand for Physical Precious Metals, Despite Paper Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Even as Omicron casts a pall over markets and upcoming Christmas celebrations, precious metals investors are feeling at least some holiday cheer this week.
The gold market put in a modest rally on Wednesday and Thursday to erase earlier losses. The white metals, meanwhile, are outperforming gold.
Demand for physical precious metals has been strong in 2021 even though you wouldn’t know it from following the paper price of gold. In addition to robust bullion buying from investors, jewelry demand is also strengthening.
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Thursday, December 23, 2021
Powell Sent Gold Above $1,800 – But Only for a Short While / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Finally, Powell admitted higher inflation risks and gold jumped above $1,800. Before anyone noticed, however, it plummeted below the key level again.Who are you, Mr. Powell: a reptilian or a human? A dove or a hawk? Since we all know the answer to the first question, let’s focus on the second one. Markets decided that Powell’s last press conference was rather dovish, but a careful reading doesn’t support this view. The main dovish signal was Powell’s emphasis that quantitative easing tapering and interest rate hikes are separate issues, as the tightening cycle criteria are stricter. So, the first rate hike may not come immediately after the end of tapering, which is scheduled for mid-March.
Even if they are separate, we shouldn’t expect a long break between the end of quantitative easing and the first rate hike. This gap will definitely be shorter than in 2014-2015. In the last tightening cycle, the Fed ended asset purchases in October 2014, while the first increase in the federal funds rate occurred in December 2015. Powell himself, however, pointed out that the economy is much stronger, while inflation is much higher, so a long separation before interest rate hikes is not likely:
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Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Silver: Strong and Weak at Once. How Is That Even Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold is barely crawling up, while silver is boldly climbing the market ladder. When will its rungs turn slippery, causing the precious metal to fall?Yesterday’s session was particularly uneventful in the case of the precious metals market, as crude oil and the general stock market stole the spotlight.
Consequently, today’s analysis will focus on what’s happening in pre-market trading, as that’s what appears to be more important.
At the moment of writing these words, gold is up very modestly – less than 0.2%.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Remembering Wharton: Detecting When the Fed Turns 'For or Against You' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger remembers lessons learned years ago from a three-year course in "Stocks and Bonds 101," and how those principles still apply today.
In 1983, I was offered the opportunity to attend a three-year course in “Stocks and Bonds 101” courtesy of the Securities Industry Association. With little or no appreciation of what that course might actually do for me, I eagerly accepted because the main perk was a shingle for my office emblazoned with the title “The Wharton School” with my name just below it and signature-verified by a bunch of northeast blue bloods.
That three-year journey had a remarkable impact on my psyche. I met some of my earlier heroes like Martin Zweig, Jeremy Seigel, Julius Westheimer, and Gail Dudack, all of whom were really interesting personalities. But none were as impactive as a little-known trader called Robert Gordon. At first glance, I thought that he was the perfect image of a New Yorker – a cross between Robert DeNiro and John Travolta but, at maybe 5 feet 9 inches tall, at least a few inches taller. He was a disciple of the legendary Ivan Boesky (an arbitrageur who went to prison for insider trading in 1987), known for his understanding and skill in the art of taking advantage in inefficiencies in securities pricing.
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Monday, December 20, 2021
Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter?Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky.
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Sunday, December 19, 2021
Gold – Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD – NOTHING MORE
Gold is real money; nothing more. That is a hard pill for some investors and advisors to swallow. Actually, it is the second part of the statement that raises the most concern.
More than just a few people will readily affirm their belief that gold is real money. Beyond that, though, there is a tendency to get carried away with descriptions and analyses regarding “fundamentals” for gold.
Those fundamentals are many and varied; but they have nothing to do with gold or its price.
As the cumulative loss in purchasing power of the US dollar becomes more apparent, and as the price of gold continues to rise, more people take notice.
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Thursday, December 16, 2021
Inflation Beast Roars - Gold Only Modestly Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow?“Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Gold Stuck Between High Inflation and Strong Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation supports gold, the expected Fed’s reaction to price pressure – not. Since gold ended November with a small gain, what will December bring?I have good and bad news. The good is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. The bad –is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. It depends on the perspective we adopt. Given all the hawkish signals sent by the Fed and all the talk about tapering of quantitative easing and the upcoming tightening cycle, even a small increase is an admirable achievement.
However, if we focus on the fact that US consumer inflation rose in October to its highest level in 30 years, and that real interest rates have stayed deeply in negative territory, gold’s inability to move and stay above $1,800 looks discouraging.
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Monday, December 13, 2021
Gold Holding Up as Cryptos Get Hammered / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As Bitcoin made new all-time highs in recent weeks, an increasing number of investors referred to it as the “new gold.”
Sure, Bitcoin and other digital currencies may have some of the same potential benefits as gold, being alternative stores of value that exist outside the banking system. Cryptos are a far cry from hard money, however, and recent price action may be indicative of why.
This last weekend, Bitcoin prices were hammered. Bitcoin declined from just under $57,000 to a swing low of just over $46,000. That is a $10k drop in a matter of days!
Saturday, December 11, 2021
Inflationary Hubris, the Fed & Gold: Can Inflation Actually Be Good for Everyday Americans? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Fed actions and how they affect precious metals.
I had thought that prior to this week, I had seen pretty much everything when it comes to the financial press shoveling out Wall Street “spin” in order to proper up the markets prior to the end-of-year bonus-calculating period. I was wrong. The most widely watched financial news medium in the world is CNBC, the very place where the phrase “talking heads” found its origin and the place where, during the dotcom boom of the 1990’s, former Trump Presidential Advisor Larry “Strong-Dollar-I-Hate-Gold” Kudlow would huddle with partner in crime Jim Cramer in a constant lovefest praising the second-largest financial bubble in history.
Kudlow, being a Trump supporter, can no longer show his Republican face in public while Jim Cramer recently tweeted out his esteemed opinion that the U.S. military should enforce the vaccine mandate, ever-ignorant of the U.S. constitution and of the entire concept of “Freedom of Choice.”
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Biden’s IRS Is Mining for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The Biden administration is moving aggressively to raise revenues by any means necessary – including going after precious metals held in so-called “home storage” or “checkbook” retirement accounts.
The IRS recently nailed a couple with a $300,000 tax bill for holding gold coins designated as Individual Retirement Account (IRA) assets – but stored in their home safe rather than at a depository.
The couple had unfortunately relied on marketing material from a promoter who claimed that setting up a limited liability company owned by their self-directed IRA would allow them to store their coins at home instead of through a third-party custodian.
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Friday, December 10, 2021
Weak November Payrolls Won’t Help Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
November employment report was mixed. Unfortunately for gold, however, it won’t stop the Fed’s hawkish agenda.Nonfarm payrolls disappointed in November. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 210,000 jobs last month. This number is much lower than both October’s figure (546,000 gains) and the market expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 573,000 added jobs). So, it’s a huge blow to those optimistic about the US economy.
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Monday, December 06, 2021
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The hawkish revolution continues. Powell, among the screams of monetary doves, suggested this week that tapering could be accelerated in December!People live unaware that an epic battle between good and evil, the light and dark side of the Force, hard-working entrepreneurs and tax officials is waged every day. What’s more, hawks and doves constantly fight as well, and this week brought a victory for the hawks among the FOMC.
The triumph came on Tuesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. He admitted that inflation wasn’t “transitory”, as it is only expected to ease in the second half of 2022. Inflation is therefore more persistent and broad-based than the Fed stubbornly maintained earlier this year, contrary to evidence and common sense:
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?
I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.
Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.
Saturday, December 04, 2021
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past year, the price of gold has made repeated attempts to move higher. Looking at a one-year price history of GLD in the chart (source) below, there is a series of progressively lower highs which seems to indicate staunch resistance to higher gold prices…
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Friday, December 03, 2021
The Masters of the Universe and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
That small group of investment bankers – those Tom Wolfe dubbed the Masters of the Universe – made its fortune trading U.S. Treasuries. It still plays the same role today it always has but no longer occupies the center stage for Wall Street’s bond market. Instead, that role now belongs to the Federal Reserve. Since the introduction of quantitative easing in 2008, it has built a $5.57 trillion stockpile of U.S. Treasuries – a holding equal to almost 20% of the nearly $29 trillion national debt. Even more troubling, it purchased a mind-boggling 60% t0 80% of the federal debt issued since 2010, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.
“At 10:10 a.m. most workdays on Wall Street,” writes Liz McCormick in a recent Bloomberg column (under the unsettling headline, One Trader Calls the Shots in the Treasury Bond Market) officials at the Federal Reserve wade into the Treasury bond market. For the next 20 minutes, they proceed to snap up bonds of all shapes and sizes. They’re impervious to price moves, and they never sell. An indiscriminate bond-buying machine, they’ve now amassed a $5.5 trillion stockpile of the debt.” Wolfe’s Masters of the Universe have been replaced by one omnipresent, spectacularly powerful, and as it turns out, fickle Master of the Universe – America’s central bank.
“For almost two years,” says Gillian Tett, in a recent Financial Times editorial, “a frightening question has haunted the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. No, this is not whether the Fed can engineer a smooth exit from quantitative easing; nor whether this is the right moment to switch the governor (and policy). The question I am referring to is whether the U.S. Treasuries market is robust enough to handle the shocks that might arise from those first two problems. For while the U.S. government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cozy assumption was smashed apart.”
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