Category: Stock Market 2022
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 30, 2022
Stock Market Cool as a Cucumber Despite Earnings and Fed Noise / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Are Stocks In a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks sold off on Thursday, as Central Banks signaled more tightening ahead. Is this a new downtrend?The S&P 500 index lost 2.49% on Thursday, as it extended its short-term downtrend after breaking below the 4,000 level. The market continued to react on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. Yesterday it went the lowest since November 10.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Stocks struggled with overhead resistance for the past week. While seasonal trends usually favor a year-end rally, this year’s rally may already have finished.
January will be the month to watch. If the market closes with a positive January, we almost always have a strong year for stocks. But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023.
This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time. This week’s economic reports for November showed a drop in retail sales and manufacturing, which raises concern that the economy is weakening.
Falling bond yields are also hinting at a recession in 2023, as are falling commodity prices. Stock indexes look to have had an exhaustion gap higher, followed by heavy institutional selling after the CPI data came out. This further confirms my thinking that money managers are unloading shares into every rally possible before the next major leg down for stocks.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stock Market Tough Inflation Stance Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.
The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already.
Sunday, December 11, 2022
Intel Empire Strikes Back! The IMPOSSIBLE Stocks Bull Market Begins! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Liz Truss the kiss of Death is GONE! She would have gone earlier but had to keep her mouth shut for her the first two weeks of her dire premiership due to the death of the Queen. Rishi is the parties choice and there was speculation that Boris Macbeth Johnson was about to make a come back after flying in from his Caribbean Island to return to power barely weeks after being kicked out of No 10 by his own party. But no more, after reading the writing on the wall Boris has decided his return to power would have blown the Tory party apart, triggering a general election that would have seen the Tories wiped out. Maximum political uncertainty at a time of of MAXIMUM economic and market distress with Inflation soaring into the stratosphere sending ALL nations teetering on the brink of collapse and NOT just the UK. ALL are suffering the consequences of the US sucking the world dry of Dollars like Sagittarius A* stripping orbiting stars of their economic mass which as I stated in my previous article could usher in an abrupt halt to the Fed's taken for granted rate hike cycle to 5%, a pivot of sorts so as to avoid a headlong plunge into Financial Crisis 2.0, that's if Fed members have any sense between their ears.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
S&P 500 Sold Off Again - Is This Still Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices suffered another sharp decline yesterday – is this a change of trend?The S&P 500 index lost 1.44% on Tuesday, as the broad stock market continued its Monday’s 1.8% sell-off. It reacted to Monday’s better-than-expected ISM Services PMI release. On Thursday the S&P 500 reached new local high of 4,100.51, and on yesterday it went closer to the 3,900 level.
This morning the S&P 500 is expected to open 0.3% lower after an overnight decline of more than 1%. We may see a short-term rebound following the recent declines. It still looks like a consolidation within an uptrend. However, the index broke below its two-month-long upward trend line yesterday, as we can see on the daily chart:
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Cumulative NYSE Advancing / Declining issues proved a useful early warning indicator going into the stock market top, since which has closely tracked the markets decline so is not showing any obvious positive nor negative deviation, a case of continuing to keep ones eye on it for a similar cues.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: The Coming Week Will Tell Us How We Get To 4300SPX / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Early on in the week, the US markets declined and the supposed reason for such decline was due to the Covid lockdowns and mass protests of such in China. Yet, the Chinese markets surged strongly at the same time. And, this had many people scratching their heads.
Furthermore, right before we began the mid-week surge towards our next higher target/resistance, Powell gave a wonderful speech during which is he basically did not say anything different than what the market already knew. Yet, of course, pundits were quick to point to the speech as the reason we rallied to the next resistance/target.
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Thursday, December 01, 2022
US Recession 2023 Already Happened in 2022! Stealth Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Stock Market Valuation Reset and Future EPS / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock markets trend between a state of over valuation and under valuation in earnings terms, hence my warnings to expect a valuation reset during most of the second half of 2021 which means regardless of what happens to the economy THIS bear market WAS inevitable! And it HAS come to PASS to great extent where many of the most over valued stocks have HALVED in price and not just the usual suspects but the likes of AMD and TSMC! AMAZON! And so on.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
After This Holiday Stock Market Rally, You Better Know When To Walk Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week’s investor insight will make you think twice about the current stock and bond rally as we head into the end of the year.
We get a lot of questions about if the stock market has bottomed or if it is headed lower and how they can take advantage of the next Major market move. Over the next 6 to 12 months, I expect the market to have violent price swings that will either make or break your financial future. So let me show a handful of charts and show what I expect to unfold.
Let’s dive in.
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Saturday, November 26, 2022
Stock Market Winning the Day, Nibbling at 4040 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 closed on a fine note, and keeps nibbing at 4,040 – the great resistance that will ultimately fall (likely early next week). Running the stops before that, but key sectoral performance indicates that it would be only weak hand that would be shaken out.
If the sellers had any chance to push through, it was this week – and the final opportunity to do so this year, is to evaporate once the second week of Dec gets out of the way. The outside markets aren‘t hinting at much success for the bears – bonds remain risk-on, USD not throwing a spanner in the works… 10y over 2y yield relenting together with 3m yield going down, that would be most constructive for the bulls – still absent for now, and that‘s why this Q4 rally will fail in Q1 2023.
Opening today‘s article for everyone after Thanksgiving – thank you all for the honor of serving you!
Tuesday, November 22, 2022
Stock Market Ready to Spring / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused the intraday decline – value held up very finely. 2-year yield is on guard, but stocks are refusing to budge. Not even the sharp daily dollar upswing had much of an effect – what it did to real assets, is being (gradually) reversed, and in the case of oil, the unsubstantiated rumor was swiftly dealt with already yesterday. So much for oil supply, after $80, there comes $82.50. The same move is going to be be mirrored in silver and copper, confirmed then by gold and miners.
Today‘s key level to overcome and not see jeopardized, is 3,965 – the logical clues serving so well in determining the Nov CPI buying spree, are in place once again, favoring a bullish resolution beyond the sensitivity shown to rising dollar yesterday and declining dollar today. Stocks look willing to run (4,010s getting in sights)and this would be the ideal confirmation. Fundamentally for the 24+ hours ahead, odds are high that the Fed and manufacturing PPI would resolve in the hours ahead to the upside as well.
Monday, November 21, 2022
Economic Challenges face the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Donald_W_Dony
One of the biggest challenges that face the continuation of the 14-year economic expansion is inflation. Years of near-zero interest rates, an accommodating Fed, and low unemployment have resulted in the highest inflation rate in 40 years.
To counteract this rapid rise in inflation, the FOMC started increasing the Fed Funds Rate in May. First with small increments and then with four jumbo increases of 75 bps.
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Sunday, November 20, 2022
Stock Market Investors Aren’t Buying the Fed’s Hawkish Posturing / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As warning signs for the economy mount, investors are cheering for more bad news. That's because they expect economic weakness will force the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates and eventually re-embrace loose monetary policy.One reliable indicator over the years of an upcoming recession is an inverted yield curve. An inversion occurs when short-term interest rates rise above long-term rates.
Typically, a 3-month Treasury bill or 2-year note will yield less than a 10-year note or 30-year bond. Shorter-duration debt instruments entail less risk and therefore deliver less reward under normal circumstances. But over the past four months, short-term IOUs have begun to yield more than longer-term paper.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Feeding the Quantum AI Tech Stocks Bear / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason most folk when looking at the charts focus on the high vs the low as if investors only buy and sell at the exact highs and lows, well maybe the mania herd bought near the highs last year to sell near the lows this year but most intelligent investors don't invest that way i.e. during the second half of last year, I sold down 80% of my AI tech stocks portfolio in advance of this bear market, including warning virtually within a few percent of the high to get ready for a bear market during 2022 and maybe even worse a crash! That was on the 5th of December 2021!
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Tuesday, November 15, 2022
S&P 500 Reached 4,000 – Is Stocks Bear Market Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stock prices extended their advance on Friday, as the S&P 500 index reached the 4,000 level. We may see a profit-taking action, however, bulls are still in charge.The S&P 500 index gained 0.92% on Friday following its Thursday’s rally of 5.5%. The market remained bullish after the Thursday’s Consumer Price Index release and the broad stock market’s gauge went the highest since September 13. On Friday, the daily high was at 4,001.48.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Discounting Events Big Picture - FEEDING THE BEAST! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the first excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast right into the end of 2023, well beyond the scope of what I had originally planned to be a 1 year trend forecast. Yes I posted part 2 before part 1 so that my Patrons gained immediate access to my trend forecast rather than have to wait a few days for that which they ultimately seek. This is the problem with mega-pieces of analysis in the time needed to proof read, error correct and edit so that hopefully the article makes sense to others, but still mistakes can happen such as the recent Bull Trap / Bear Trap saga illustrated. So multiple time consuming proof readings are necessary so as to whittle down the number of errors and to ensure the text matches what I meant for it to say.
And before we get started, the world took another baby step towards Czar Putin sending nukes flying as the Ukrainians apparently fired a missile at the bridge that they don't have access to,That's if the Russian tactical nukes actually work given how rubbish the Russian Army has turned out to be, as the war that was supposed be over within days of invasion instead drags on building the pressure keeps on Putin as his little fat fingers inch closer towards pressing the nuclear button.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Tight CPI Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.
In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Have We Begun A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market Already? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every week that I publish an article on the stock market, I attempt to show you some very glaring issues as to how the market presented to you by analysts and news reporters alike. Most of them will look at the market action, review the news, and then attribute a move in the market based upon a recent news event or economic report. And, if you read it carefully, some of it does not even make sense. Let me show you an example that I read this past week:
"Hong Kong stocks up 3% in Asia session as private survey shows China's factory activity contracted" – CNBC (The headline was changed by CNBC since originally published)
Read that very carefully. Then ask yourself if a contraction in factory activity is a “bullish” indication? Then it must lead you to the question as to how can the market rally in the face of such bearish news? Well, obviously, the market does not really care, does it?
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