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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Stock Market Turning the Screws / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Stephen_McBride


nflation just keeps getting worse…

The cost of heating your home has doubled over the past year.

Want to take a summer vacation? That airfare will cost you 50% more than last year.

Whose fault is this?

It’s easy—and partially correct—to blame the US Government and the Fed. After all, they showered Americans with big stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits, then held interest rates at zero.

But as I’ll show you in this essay… that’s an incomplete explanation.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 27, 2022

Stock Market Watching Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening).

Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Everyone and their grandma has been eagerly awaiting a big bear market bounce since at least the start of May that has repeatedly failed to materialise, why? It's because everyone and their grandma has been expecting a big market rally that's why! Here's another update on the state of the AI stocks portfolio in advance of finalising my 3 YEAR US house prices trend forecast.

My bear market expectations remain for the Dow to target a trend to 29,600 due to be achieved during August / Early September for an approx 20% top to bottom bear market target.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 23, 2022

The Fed’s Hawkish Bite Left Its Mark on the S&P 500 Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

By raising interest rates, the Fed poured cold water on the red-hot markets and finally chilled investors' enthusiasm. What's next for asset prices?

Work in Progress

With the Fed’s hawkish hammer pounding the financial markets, the selling pressure coincided with events unseen since 2008. Moreover, with the work in progress to reduce inflation poised to push asset prices even lower, I’ve long warned that we’re likely far from a medium-term bottom. For example, I wrote on May 31:

With recession fears decelerating and optimism returning to Wall Street, the bulls are brimming with confidence.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 23, 2022

No Dodging the Stock Market Bullet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recovered from the intraday reversal to the downside, thanks to tech. Value‘s poor showing can be chalked down to the riskier junk bonds losing early gains, meaning the daily stock market move didn‘t surprise much when bonds closing values are considered. What‘s though flying under the radar, is the turn in Treasury yields – a couple of days after FOMC, bonds are having second thoughs, and aren‘t pushing the Fed to raise too steeply. Anyway, I wouldn‘t be surprised to see 75bp hike in July, to be continued with a few more 50bp hikes then. Coupled with the balance sheet that‘s about to shrink, that would finally start denting inflation – at the cost of real economy growth.

I say growth while I was looking for a Q1 GDP print to come in negative, and Q2 GDP would turn lackluster as well. Still, a full-fledged recession in the usual sense of the word (the consequences), won‘t hit until very late 2022 even though NBER might declare one (based also on unrelenting inflation data) earlier. All the typical signs are in – we had yield curve inversion, oil prices doubled in a relatively short amount of time, and inflation is entrenched above 5%. Whatever the Fed does – and it‘ll do a lot – inflation in essentials won‘t be dented all that much. There‘s no dodging the bullet in my view, and the markets would gradually go from living the soft landing fantasy to readjusting to the hard landing reality to come.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

US and Global markets recoiled from the higher inflation/CPI data last week. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75pb on June 15. The Fed also warned that other, more aggressive rate increases might be necessary later this year. Before the Fed decision, global markets opened on Sunday, June 12, and quickly started selling downward. US Indexes sold off on Monday, June 13, by more than 2.5% almost across the board. A brief rally after the Fed decision seems to have evaporated in early trading on Thursday, June 16.

It is clear that global markets expected inflation to stay elevated but were hoping for some moderately lower data showing the recent Fed moves had already dented some inflation concerns. Now, it appears the US Fed has its backs against a wall and moved rates aggressively higher to stall inflation (and possibly destroy global asset values). From my perspective, this is unknown territory for the US Fed and Global Central banks. That means traders should expect increased volatility and the possibility of a very determined reversion of price over time.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Dow Industrials’ Big 8-Wave Cycle is Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

"We finally understand our full Elliott wave position"

The Wave Principle's basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 13, 2022

Dow Stocks Bear Market Forecast Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Dow Stocks Bear Market Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 04, 2022

Stock Market Rally on Borrowed Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 was indeed building a bull flag, which „must“ now continue with a fresh upleg so that the formation is validated. Odds are that in spite of the tech-led upswing, the rally would continue. All that‘s required for today, is a not too disappointing non-farm payrolls figure, which would (in the market‘s mind) give the Fed some leevay in taking on inflation while not choking off economic growth (however decelerating). Optimal outcome would be a figure somewhat below expectations as that would enable speculation as to how far the Fed would move towards focus on growth (the Brainard view of things) and away from Powell‘s resolute (verbally resolute, to be precise – big difference) inflation fighter pose. Yesterday‘s Yellen admission on getting it wrong, is a preview of more hawkish monetary policies still ahead.

That‘s why I‘ve said that this rally wasn‘t sustainable, but it still has further to go. Treasuries aren‘t relenting in the pressure on the Fed to act, and the central bank would have to catch up. It‘s a question of time when this risk-on reprieve runs its course. Yesterday‘s turn in precious metals and copper is a preview of what such a Fed turn would imemdiately cause – helping the open positions mightily. And I‘m not even talking the sizable open profits in crude oil...

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 03, 2022

What to Make of the Stock Market’s Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

"“For certain, there will be countertrend rallies"

The stock market selloff from March into the May low was comprised of eight straight weeks of decline in the Dow Industrials.

This was historic. The Dow Industrials have been around for 126 years and this was only the second time that the senior index suffered a decline for eight consecutive weeks. The other time was in 1923 -- also March into May.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 02, 2022

Stock Market Hits Stall Speed Before Running / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 could still be building a bull flag on the daily chart, followed by an upswing tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. Who knows what kinds of adjustments would show that the real economy isn‘t decelerating all that badly? Markets might even conclude the contraction bullet would be avoided, and that the Fed won‘t need to go all in against inflation consequences be damned. Wrong, because if you look at Treasuries, the pressure on the Fed to raise (and dramatically so), is on – the dollar is turning up already on the prospect of higher yields. CPI inflation might have (temporarily) peaked, but inflation expectations (as measured by both the bond market and the respective ETF) haven‘t yet.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 01, 2022

Stock Market Risk-on Run / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

S&P 500 didn‘t waver much even though credit markets did – the risk-on sentiment in stocks goes on even when faced with a dollar upswing (which was sold into). The defensive slant to the S&P 500 gains is evident as tech did better than value – and even energy stocks got hurt. This is short-term concerning for the oil bulls, but it would be premature to close the profitable longs just yet (even if short-term challenges would remain).

Precious metals are acting weak – the daily rise in yields and the dollar hurts. Second half of the year would be the best time for gold and silver as the focus shifts from (temporarily peaking) inflation to the inevitability of backing off tightening (turning accommodative again even) – till then, I‘m looking for lean weeks ahead, and that goes for copper as well. Crude oil remains supported by geopolitics, CRB Index continues trending nicely higher, and the threat of recession isn‘t breaking them.Notably, the market pressure on the Fed to raise, has slowed to a standstill in May – and that would support real assets going forward in the mid-term increasingly more.
Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Stock Market Game Plan Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 did fine on Friday as well, and the long streak of weeks in red, is over (for now). The rally would continue for quite a while longer – after all, we indeed got the sign inflation made its peak with the May data. Also right on schedule, the top in yields came – coupled with some retail earnings, personal income and PCE data, the stock market rally could proceed. And it has further to go, quite further to go – before peaking and rolling over to fresh lows. Yes, I don‘t think we‘re looking at a fresh uptrend, there is still much stress (to be reflected in stock prices) in the consumer arena.

For now, the key question is the degree to which VIX calms down – would it be able to keep below 23-24 to extend the shelf life of this rally? And for how long would the lull in volatility last? I think the answer is a few short weeks, before it becomes obvious that the fundamentals haven‘t changed. The consumer remains in poor shape, inflation would remain stubbornly high (even as it had indeed peaked), and the credit default swaps for quite a few (consumer sensitive) companies are rising relentlessly, which isn‘t yet reflected in underlying stock prices. I‘m talking financials too – this broad stock market rally has more than a couple of percent higher to go before the weight pulls it back down, and earnings estimates get downgraded again.

In short, this is a false dawn, but it would feel like a fresh dawn. Counterintuitively, it would be accompanied by retreating yields – regardless of the persistent inflation. Remember also my words that the Fed won‘t be able to engineer a soft landing this time, I‘m not counting on that – the conditions are so much different macroeconomically now than they were in the mid-1990s, which was the last time they could pull it off. Just ask yourself how much slack in the job market is there, what about the peace dividend now and prospects for the brighter aspects of globalization. No, I‘m not buying that – this reprieve would give way to a fresh stock market downleg, manufacturing growth would crawl to a standstill, and that‘s when the central bank would be forced to back off tightening.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Why the Timing of the Next Economic Slump May Surprise Big Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

"The stock market leads GDP," not the other way around

Do you recall how many government officials, economists or bankers anticipated the severity of the "Great Recession" before late 2007 into 2009?

Do you recall even one?

If a name doesn't come to mind, that's because hardly anyone of prominence provided a warning. Indeed, just the opposite.

Here's a March 29, 2007 NBC News headline:

U.S. economic growth revised up

Granted, this view by a group of economists was early in 2007, but still -- a historic stock market top was then only six months away and the start of the Great Recession was only eight months down the road.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 28, 2022

Sell the Stocks Bear Market Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Michael_Pento

Bear market bounces are violent yet short-lived. The latest excuse for an oversold rally was provided by JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon. The bank's CEO stated at Morgan's Investor Day Conference on Monday, May 23rd, that the US economy remains strong despite gathering storm clouds. He said, "I'm calling it storm clouds because they're storm clouds. They may dissipate." This was indicative of the typical vapid speech of the optimistic bank CEO. While he was at it, he also raised the bank's outlook for Net Interest Margin at the bank's conference, causing the usual parade of Dimon groupies to celebrate with orgasmic delight about his confidence in the economy.

Perhaps Dimon is compelled to do his impression of PT Barnum because shares of JPM have lost 30% of their value so far this year. But before you believe Dimon is some economic oracle, listen to what he predicted about US economic growth on Jan. 11th when he publicly proclaimed his 2022 outlook, "We're going to have the best growth year we've ever had this year, I think, since maybe sometime after the Great Depression." He said this during a quarter that would later show to have shrunk at a 1.4% annualized rate. And that bad economic data didn't cease at the end of Q1. S&P Global US Composite PMI Output, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a reading of 53.8 in May, from a 56.0 reading in April, which means the economy is fast approaching contraction territory in Q2. A slew of manufacturing PMIs also supports the view that the US and, indeed the entire global economy is faltering. The plunging numbers on home purchases and refinancing activity indicate danger is ahead. Nevertheless, despite a parade of sharply declining economic data, the financial media is promoting the view of Wall Street analysts that earnings growth is actually going to be robust this year and next.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 27, 2022

Stocks: Is the Really Scary Part Just Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI


Here's one of the actions which investors take when they get "rattled"

Big daily selloffs have occurred since the stock market's downtrend began in January.

For instance, on May 18, the Dow Industrials closed lower by 1,161 points -- a 3.6% drop. The S&P 500 shed 4% on the same day.

Yet, most investors aren't exactly shaking in their boots. Panic is absent.

After the market close on May 18, the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which analyzes near-term trends for major U.S. financial markets, showed this chart and said:

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

The earnings bloodbath materialised, that started on Tuesday with Google trading down to $2265, and ended on Friday with Amazon plunging down to a new low of $2425. With the two 'cheap' stocks Qualcom and Facebook rallying strongly post earnings. Virtually everything went according to the script of my last article i.e. "we could see Amazon trade to well under $2500, probably into the $2450 to $2300 support zone". The only odd one out was Apple that refused to budge much from $160, where my expectations remain is headed to below $142.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 13, 2022

What Happens When the Stock Market Dip Keeps Dipping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

These can "work tirelessly to keep investors trapped on the wrong side of a bearish trend"

It's been a rocky road for the Dow and the S&P 500 index since the start of the year. And, even longer for the NASDAQ, which topped back in November.

Indeed, speaking of technology stocks, some of the most popular names took a big beating in April alone. As the Wall Street Journal noted (April 29):

The FAANG stocks, consisting of the popular quintet of Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet, have collectively lost more than $1 trillion in market value [in April], the most since Facebook started trading in May 2012.

So, you might think that this bumpy ride in the stock market would have many investors at least considering moving to the sidelines, especially those with a sizeable nest egg to protect.

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