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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Financial Markets 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

The Fed is Incompetent - Beware the Dancing Market Puppet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Expert Michael Ballanger reviews this week's market updates from Wednesday's FOMC meeting to his outlook on Getchell Gold Corp., which he maintains is a "pound-the-table Buy."

Firstly, if Wednesday’s FOMC meeting featuring Chairman Jerome (I have tools!) Powell did nothing else, it did accentuate just how incompetent they are. Powell stood in front of the cameras and told the world that the American economy was “strong” while one of his own branches, the Atlanta Fed, reported just a day earlier that growth had slowed to 0.00%, which is anything but “strong.”

“Stocks are super-unattractive when the Fed is loosening tightening and interest rates are falling rising. Don’t fight the Fed.”
— Legendary Fund Manager Marty Zweig

As the afternoon wore on, stocks moved higher thinking that the .75% rate hike to be followed by more .75% rate hikes throughout the year (targeting Fed Funds at 3.5%) should be seen as a bullish signal. Reductions in the Fed balance sheet assets and sharply rising rates are about as far from a bullish signal as one can get, so in the last hour, a 600-point Dow rally became a 300-point uptick setting the stage for today’s wake-up call, and 741-point slide.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Economic "Hurricane": Here's a Take on a Bank CEO's Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Here's what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out

On June 1, a CNBC headline said:

[Major bank CEO] says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war

Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called "quantitative tightening" and the war persists in Ukraine.

Yet, those cited "causes" of a possible economic "hurricane," like a severe recession or even a depression, are results themselves. For instance, the war in Ukraine resulted from a shift in social mood -- going from positive to negative.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 10, 2022

Will Ignoring Fundamentals Take Revenge on Bullish Stock Traders? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

While the Fed strives to tame inflation, short-term investors continue to ruin its efforts with bullish actions. Will their love of risk pay off?

With the S&P 500 enjoying a mid-day rally on Jun. 7 and the GDXJ ETF (proxy for junior gold and silver mining stocks) following suit, the bulls warmed up to the idea of a "soft landing." However, with a much higher U.S. federal funds rate needed to cool inflation, the short-term optimism should be short-lived.

To explain, I've noted on numerous occasions that risk-on sentiment often reverberates across multiple markets. Therefore, when stocks bid higher, commodities usually follow, and this increases the Fed's inflation conundrum. As a result, investors' optimism enhances the pricing pressures.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

The Horns of Fed‘s Inflation Dilemma / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 gave up Thursday‘s gains much too easily – not even the short window of opportunity gets acted upon. Medium-term trend is winning – stocks will roll over to a fresh downtrend, it‘s a question of time. Bonds aren‘t offering too much of a reprieve – the 10-year yield didn‘t even decline below 1.70% when testing below 1.50% was doable. This merely highlights the brief time window for CPI inflation to make a peak – before raising its head once again. Commodity price inflation isn‘t going to be tamed, and Friday‘s non-farm payrolls have been a last good figure before we see further deterioration. As I wrote that Q1 GDP could very well be negative, the same goes for Q2 GDP – I‘m counting with stall speed.

For now, each upcoming Fed meeting till September, has 50bp rate hike priced in. The question remains what happens after September – would the Fed pivot already? Crude oil prices could be more than easing by that time, if you know what I mean. The focus would have shifted from inflation to economic growth support – that would be the drumbeat of the day. Precious metals are to be the first to anticipate the next dovish turn (backing off tightening), and that moment could happen later in summer. The copper upswing is likely to continue, and factors beyond China and supply with stockpiles, continue to speak against a deeper downswing. It‘s a bit similar to the realization that not even the OPEC+ production increase would be enough to satisfy world demand.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Stock and Bond Markets Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

As inflation signals cool, various markets get relief

Whether a bounce or something more extended, a bear market rally was bound to get off the ground sooner or later. It was a matter of time, with stock market sentiment this over-bearish.

Here is how the US Stock Market segment led off last weekend in NFTRH 706:

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Global Financial Elite in Davos Lust for New Powers / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

As global elites met in Davos this week to discuss their latest plans for a Great Reset, ordinary investors are hoping for a great rebound in their portfolios.

The stock market did finally bounce after suffering several consecutive weeks of losses.  Whether it’s a just a short-lived relief rally or the start of something bigger remains to be seen.

The U.S. Dollar Index may also be gearing up for a run, but to the downside.  After moving higher against foreign currencies for most the year, the dollar is now declining for a second consecutive week.

Dollar weakness helped support a modest rise in gold and silver prices. 

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Take Advantage When Markets Succumb to Fear / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Last Wednesday’s rate hike by the Federal Reserve failed to convince investors that the central bank can tame inflation without wrecking the economy.

Subsequent remarks by Jerome Powell insisting that the economy isn’t vulnerable to recession were also unconvincing – especially given the Fed chairman’s lousy forecasting track record (“transitory” inflation has proven to be more like intractable inflation).

The good news for gold holders is that the safe-haven metal is holding up better than conventional financial assets. Stocks are breaking down at the same time as purportedly “risk-free” Treasury bonds are collapsing in value at a rate never before seen.

Sentiment gauges are showing extreme pessimism among the public. Most say the country is headed in the wrong direction and give President Joe Biden terrible marks for his handling of the economy.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 07, 2022

Global Market Perspective Test-Drive - Dial In Your View of 50+ Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Hi,

You might agree that so far, not much about this year has been "normal."

  • Normally, commodity prices don't leap to the moon
  • Stocks don't sell off this hard in April
  • And European countries don't engage in brutal wars

All of that to say: It's time to stop thinking "normal," and start thinking "new."

For that, you can't do better than Elliott waves. Just look at these 8 "before/after" charts from Global Market Perspective, a monthly publication by our friends at Elliott Wave International.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Fed Chairman Powell Spooks the Market by Signaling 50 Point Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Tough talk from the Fed roiled markets this past week, with stocks as well as precious metals getting hit.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank intends to pursue a more rapid pace of interest rate increases. He indicated that a 50-basis point hike in May is likely. 
Jerome Powell: We really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back and I think if you look at, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3%. So, inflation's much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodating than it was then. So, it is appropriate, in my view, to be moving a little more quickly. And I also think there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So, that does point in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table, certainly. We make these decisions at the meeting and we'll make them meeting by meeting, but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Rambus_Chartology

There are just a few times in ones investing career, depending how early you start and if you survive long enough, that you are witness to some extraordinary changes from the MACRO scale perspective. A few examples would be the beginning of the 1929 crash, the end of the secular bull market that was made in 2000 that began in 1974, the 1987 crash which is still the biggest one day percentage drop in stock market history of 23%. Then there was the banking and housing bubble that collapsed into the 2009 crash low which launched our current secular bull market in the stock markets which is now 13 years old.

Then there are more subtle changes in the macro world that are very rare which most investors or even economist don’t have the ability to recognize until they are well established. Eventually the change of trend is so great that one has to accept the fact and recognize it for what it is. In the beginning of a macro shift few believe it is really happening because the trend has been in place for so long that it seems normal and that is how markets work.

What I would like to show you today are several rare macro events that are going to change the world and in ways we may not understand right now, but changes are coming whether we like it or not. To think one person or a group of people can wave their magic wand and make everything the way it was before are in for a rude awakening. We are just now witnessing the birth of these macro trends that are going to be with us for many years into the future.

It is always hard in the beginning because most people don’t understand the changes and lash out to those in charge thinking they can make things right, but again that is wishful thinking. After a period of time has lapsed there will be an adjustment period and a new norm will be established. For those that understand the macro shifts will do well with their investments, but for those that are unwilling to adapt to the new environment will find it much harder and blame everyone and everything for their underperformance or outright failure.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 18, 2022

The Witchy Trio: Commodities Supercycle, Inflation, and… Recession? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Submissions

If the current market phenomena were to star in a Shakespeare drama, they would be ideal candidates for the Three Witches. Can you guess who would play who?

Have you ever heard of Shakespeare’s mythological characters, the Three Witches? They are depicted as prophets who represent evil, darkness, chaos, and conflict.

If you look at the market today, you will find ideal candidates for these dark roles. However, while rising commodity prices and inflation have a casting win in their pocket, there is no certain actor to play the third witch. Would the recession stand a chance?

No Easter eggs today – instead, here is a story that may provide food for thought.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 06, 2022

My 3 Favorite Trade Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Hi,

Millions of people have joined the ranks of online traders since the start of the pandemic, and you may be one of them. Or maybe you've been trading for years already...

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

How the "Great Resignation" Ties in with a Financial Peak / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Insights into "a peak in social optimism of monumental proportions"

Some people probably remember that country song by Johnny Paycheck from the late '70s -- "Take This Job and Shove It."

Many of those in the younger generations may not have heard of it given the song was released more than 40 years ago. However, many of them caught the spirit of it just the same as they quit their jobs in droves in what has been called the "Great Resignation."

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Who Benefits Most From the Russia-Ukraine War? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Submissions

With the unrest in the Black Sea basin, it appears that there are two more cross-trade wars in the world. These are about energy and currency.

Crude oil prices, down most of Friday, finally ended the week higher after a huge fire broke out at oil facilities in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, following attacks by Yemeni rebels.

The great winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly the United States, which now seems to be taking advantage of Europe’s moment of weakness.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 28, 2022

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.

Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.

During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 21, 2022

Is the Fed trying to blow another, more covert asset bubble? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The asset bubble that almost ended in Q1 2020 was rescued by two main saviors, 1) unsustainable bearish (no, terrorized) sentiment and even more so, 2) balls out central bank inflation, led by the US Federal Reserve. The resulting bubble leg was in the bag from the moment the dovish Fed made its first headline about asset purchases and rate cuts.

This latest leg of the asset bubble has been under stress in 2022, as the supposed reflection of ‘good’ inflation, the stock market (SPX), has trended down all year. More recently, commodities and precious metals have gotten dinged as well after spiking upward on the Russia/Ukraine war, which exacerbated the Fed’s inflation (as manufactured in Q1-Q2 2020) after the inflationary effects on commodity prices were already exacerbated by pandemic-related supply chain issues.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 20, 2022

US Fed Announces Minimum Interest Rate Hike, Spooked by Ukraine War Impact / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Dysfunctional U.S. Mint Runs Out of Silver Blanks Again, Halting Sales of Some Items - Precious metals markets sold off ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. But after Fed officials announced their rate hike, prices recovered somewhat.

Another market that has gone haywire is nickel. It’s not a metal that typically drives headlines, but prices swung so violently in futures markets that trading had to be halted for the first time in 24 years.

Nickel prices doubled in matter of hours last week. An institutional trader had placed big bets that nickel prices would fall and was forced to cover, or buy back, his short positions. An epic short squeeze ensued, followed by a massive sell-off this week.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 02, 2022

See what's next for Europe and US WAR Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Hi Reader,

You are probably wondering what war in Ukraine means for the markets. Instead of trying to deconstruct a never-ending barrage of mostly useless information, you can let our friends at Elliott Wave International help.

Now through March 7, they are offering you practical, objective answers in two events running concurrently:

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 08, 2022

Reform of the G 7 and the City of London Corporation needed as a matter of urgency. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Christopher_Quigley

Nicholas Shaxon:
"Wealthy individuals hold over 10 trillion dollars offshore….However, the IMF estimates …… that the balance sheets of small island financial centres alone added up to 18 trillion dollars".

The Group of Seven (G-7) is an intergovernmental organization made up of the world's largest developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Government leaders of these countries meet periodically to address international economic and monetary issues, with each member taking over the presidency on a rotating basis.

In response to the Panama Papers on off-shore banking operations in South America (released by WikiLeaks) the European Commission set up a commission of investigation. Its recommendations are outlined below. However, to date, the G 7 and the City of London Corporation have refused to adopt such measures. This is despite the fact that the G 7 adopted a specific mandate to adopt strategies to aid third world spiralling debt.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Should Investors Fear Fed Interest Rate Hikes? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to rattle Wall Street and cloud the outlook for precious metals.

On Wednesday, the central bank strongly signaled it will raise its benchmark Fed funds rate for the first time in three years – likely at its March policy meeting.

Policymakers noted that inflation is running “well above” target and also claimed a “strong labor market” justifies a degree of monetary tightening.

"There's quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said, adding, “wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades."

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