Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, December 20, 2010
US Treasury Bonds BubbleOmics: Next Stop 2.890% for the 10-Year / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
A bubble is when for some reason, be it because of manipulation of markets for one person’s gain and another’s pain, the insanity of crowds, or addiction to debt; prices of some “thing” gets wildly out of synch with the fundamental utility value of the thing.
Then there is a marked difference between what, in Wall Street slang, you can sell something for to someone dumber than you, today (Market Value); and what can reasonably expect to be able to sell same the thing for to someone smarter than you, tomorrow (Other than Market Value).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 19, 2010
How to Protect Your Family and Wealth from the End of America / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Porter Stansberry with Braden Copeland write: The International Monetary Fund estimates the 20 largest industrial nations (known as the G20) are on course to see their combined government debt exceed 100% of their combined GDP within three years.
Debts of this size simply cannot be financed, let alone repaid. The first step in this great unraveling is underway – the collapse of the euro.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Insanity on the Potomac, U.S. Treasury Bond Investors Recoiling in Horror! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Given the insanity on the Potomac last week, I cannot imagine a time when a clear vision of the future would be more crucial.
At 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, President Obama signed a new fiscal package, which …
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Bell Tolls for the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
There is an old adage on Wall Street: no one rings a bell to signal a market top or bottom. Yet, I have found that bells do ring; it's just that few people know exactly what sound to listen for.
Perhaps the biggest and most liquid of all markets is for US government bonds. That market has been rallying for almost thirty years. The bull can be traced back to 1981, when Treasury bond yields peaked at about 15%. At that time, high inflation and a weakening dollar had justifiably squelched demand for Treasuries. Even the ultra-high interest rates were not enough to attract buyers.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 17, 2010
Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds Using TBT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
I have been highlighting higher Treasury yields since October 15 (well before the heard), and I also mentioned on December 8 that the move higher in Treasury yields would "pick up steam". But every price move has its limits, and the Ultra Short Lehman 20+ Year Treasury (symbol: TBT) is no different.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
U.S. Bond Market Investment Strategy For 2011 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
For those seeking greater safety, bonds will be the wrong place to look in 2011.
To understand why, we need to look back more than 25 years - to a time when economic conditions were very different than they are today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Muni Bond Funds Blood Bath, Will it Continue? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are watching a huge selloff in Municipal Bond Funds. Here are a few charts.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Higher Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The eventuality of higher longer-term Treasury yields in the weeks and months ahead appears to be relentlessly marching towards us now. Time to start monitoring the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) for the next entry window on the long side.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 13, 2010
Wall Street Gives Uncle Sam Too Much Credit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Despite the fact that the S&P is up over 80% in the last 21 months, US financial firms are currently tripping over each other in their zeal to raise their S&P 500 and GDP targets for 2011. JPMorgan's chief US equities strategist, Thomas Lee, came out on December 3rd with a target of 1425 on the S&P for 2011, which would be a 15 percent gain. Barclays Capital last Thursday released a 1420 estimate. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs also recently released its forecast, and it sees a more-than-20 percent increase next year, to 1450. Meanwhile, PIMCO's idea of a "new normal" has translated into a 2011 GDP forecast raised from 2-2.5% to 3-3.5% due to "massive" government stimulus.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 10, 2010
U.S. Interest Rates Surge as Fed, Congress Crush Debtholders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
Washington, 0. The bond market, 1.
That’s the score folks, in case you haven’t been keeping track. The Federal Reserve Chairman said his $600 billion “QE2″ program would lower interest rates. Instead, rates have done nothing but rise since investors got wind of the Treasury buying plan.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 09, 2010
How a Dull Investment can be a Great Investment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
I spent my childhood discussing the stock market at the dinner table. My dad was a stock broker, and he loved to "tell the story" of the stocks he recommended to customers -- a story that included critical information about the industry, the products, earnings, and the outlook for the future. Most children might find it dull, but I was mesmerized.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market’s Perception of Economic Recovery Path is Strongly Bullish, But Mind the Hurdles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Asha_Bangalore
The 10-year Treasury note yield has climbed from a recent low of 2.41% (October 6-8, 2010) to 3.27% as of this writing. The 86 bps increase in yield in a short span reflects the market's assessment of likely improvements in economic conditions during the months ahead and the impact of a projected increase in supply of Treasury debt as a result of the compromise tax deal President Obama announced yesterday.
Monday, December 06, 2010
Large Brokerage Firms Continue Pumping Collapsing Municipal Bonds Onto the Public / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fred_Sheehan
Undaunted by falling municipal bond prices, rising yields, and withdrawal of funds, research reports by large brokerage firms still mollify the majority of clients and fund managers with numbers and assertions: "General obligation bonds do not default." "The general obligation default rate is 0.01%." "Most states are required by law to balance their budgets." To these and other airtight arguments in the muni marketing kit, the proper articulation of doubt may be expressed as: "Yeah, Yeah, Yeah." Or, one might read "Possible Misunderstandings by Municipalities and Their Bonds."
Friday, November 26, 2010
Giving Thanks for the Bond Market Sell Off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
I don’t know about you, but I’m still stuffed from yesterday! I ate enough turkey to feed a small army, and that’s not even counting all the trimmings.
But frankly, I wouldn’t have it any other way. Thanksgiving is a great time to get together with family, watch some football, eat well, and celebrate all we have to be thankful for. And believe me, there’s a lot … including the latest bond market sell off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
United STRAITS of America: The Muni Bond Crisis Is Here / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
This November, the whole world tuned in as the greater part of the U.S.A.'s 50 states turned red -- and no, I don't mean the political shift to a republican majority during the November 2 mid-term elections. I mean "in the red" -- as in, financially fercockt, overdrawn, up to their eyeballs in debt.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Muni Bond Crisis, The One Thing You Must Know / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Q1_Publishing
It’s a scary time for seemingly safe municipal bonds.
The Boston Globe warns muni bonds “have been sinking like a rock” and the fall “signals turmoil ahead.” The New York Times suggests it is “akin to the one that brought Greece to its knees.” Time magazine warns they’re the “next financial land mine.” The mainstream media is all over the emerging muni bond crisis.
Monday, November 22, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Explode Higher, Opportunity to Buy 10 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market sold off a little more last week. Not only did the Treasury market sell off quite sharply over the past few months, but other sectors in the fixed income space got hit even harder. It appears that the market has been de-sensitized to all the sovereign problems of the basket case European countries. Financial markets just shrug nonchalantly when headlines of another Irish or Greek bail-out come across the tape. The sector that was perhaps even uglier than the European PIIGS over the past couple of weeks were the US municipal bonds. In our new cozy world, investors will need to start getting used to the idea that government bonds might not be as infallible or default proof as previously thought and priced. Meanwhile stocks remain close to 2 standard deviations expensive to bonds according to the Fed model I follow.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 19, 2010
Fed Money Printing Triggers Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
It’s always gratifying when the mainstream media picks up on a theme you’ve been banging away at for weeks. And boy is that happening now. Just get a load of the headlines we’ve seen in recent days:
Read full article... Read full article...“Fresh Attack on Fed Move; GOP Economists, Lawmakers Call for Abandoning $600 Billion Bond Purchase” — Wall Street Journal, November 15
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Where Are the Bond Vigilantes? Rise of the Dollar Vigilante / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jeff_Berwick
Last seen in full force in the inflationary early 1980s, bond vigilantes were shadowy figures who were said to have rebelled and swore to keep central banks and governments honest by raising long term interest rates whenever the authorities kept their own interest rates too low, or let budget deficits grow out of control.
Yet now, with interest rates at near zero percent and budget deficits in the US stretching the boundaries of belief, not a peep.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Bernanke in Big Trouble, Global Investors Prepare to Dump Trillions of Dollars / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_North
Ben Bernanke is in trouble. Big trouble. Bigger trouble than any Federal Reserve Chairman has ever been in.
There is a cartoon video all over the Web that discusses "quantitative easing." It is a riot. This is very, very bad for Bernanke. When the public starts laughing at a senior government bureaucrat, he is in trouble.
Read full article... Read full article...