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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, August 16, 2021

US Bond Market Long-term Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The screeching that one hears from the likes of Michael "Big Short" Burry is that the US Bond market is about to collapse. We'll all I can see when looking at the long-term chart is that since the pandemic panic bond market spike of March 2020, bonds have been in a correction against it's primary bull trend, and that correction appears to have ENDED.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 30, 2021

Behavior of Inflation and US Treasury Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The bond yields dropped despite surging inflation. It’s not a usual thing on the market, so we have to ask: what does it mean for gold?

The markets hide many mysteries. One of them is the recent slide in the long-term bond yields. As the chart below shows, both the nominal interest rates and the real interest rates have been in a downside trend since March (with a short-lived rebound in June). Indeed, the 10-year Treasury yield reached almost 1.75% at the end of March, and by July it decreased to about 1.25%, while the inflation-adjusted yield dropped from -0.63% to about -1%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 08, 2021

US Interest Rates: Making the Improbable Today’s Reality / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_Rejczak

The US Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate guidance for 2023; and potentially late 2022. Oddly enough, interest rates have moved lower since the last Fed meeting.

I see an opportunity today.

You would think that the higher interest rate guidance would have created a bump higher in the $TNX (Ten-Year Note Yield). However, wouldn’t that make too much sense? The more trading experience I have gotten over the last two decades, the clearer it is, that logic doesn’t always work - unless you are early enough.

If you have been following along, you know that yesterday, I discussed the S&P Banking sector, namely KBE, as we wait for a pullback to some key technical levels.

It got me thinking: the Ten-Year Note yield should be very similar to that trade.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 23, 2021

US 10-Year Note Yields: Opportunity to Benefit? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Given yesterday’s headlines with Bitcoin plunging, did you take a peek at interest rates? Could a stronger dollar lie ahead with higher rates?

While everybody’s eyes are peeled on cryptocurrencies and a crowded short DXY trade, let’s revisit the potentially polar opposite of a crypto instrument: 10-year notes. Yields rose on Wednesday, settling at 1.683%, just off the intraday high of 1.692%. I like to take a look when few others are looking. As yields closed near the highs of the day, with other risk assets seeming out of favor, at least temporarily, let’s revisit the 10-year notes.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The latest data from Refinitiv shows that companies have raised a record $140 billion in the U.S. dollar junk bond market during the first quarter of this year. That beats the previous record set during the second quarter last year when companies scrambled to issue debt in a bid to raise cash during the pandemic. The three biggest issuance quarters in history have been set in the past year. With investors falling over themselves to lend money to any venture offering a U.S. dollar yield above 4%, companies are now not only finding that they can raise money easily in order to roll over existing debt, but some are using the proceeds to pay dividends to owners. It's beyond absurd.

When a mania is in full force, though, the vast majority of participants are blind to the absurdity. Investors, for instance, think that they must lend because 4% or higher is such a juicy yield when compared with anything else. And the central banks will not let companies fail, so it's a free lunch.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 25, 2021

It’s the Bond Market, Stupid / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

As our Continuum chart predicted over a year ago, Jerome Powell was called to his higher inflationary powers when the macro markets liquidated with great violence and terror. This link shows the Continuum (30yr yield and its monthly EMA 100 limiter) as it was then, begging for inflationary action…

Oh Jerome? Bond market calling…

Below is the Continuum today. Since the linked post from February, 2020, a lot has happened and it has been according to the plans we laid out last spring. The plan was inflationary because the Fed was going into steroidal inflation mode. The ‘Fed comfort box’ on the chart has thinned out from the original post because the red dotted limiter (monthly EMA 100) has declined appreciably since then.

These many months the NFTRH target has been 2.5% to 2.7% on the 30yr Treasury yield. This week that zone’s lower bound got dinged. It is coming time for a cool down at least, if the macro reflation is going to get a second wind. What could provide that second wind?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 09, 2021

US Bond Market Rocks the Richter Scale / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The global sovereign bond market is fracturing, and its ramifications for asset prices cannot be overstated. Borrowing costs around this debt-disabled world are now surging. The long-awaited reality check for those that believed they could borrow and print with impunity has arrived. From the U.S., to Europe and across Asia, February witnessed the biggest surge in borrowing costs in years.

Thursday, February 25, 2021, was the worst 7-year Note Treasury auction in history. According to Reuters, the auction for $62 billion of 7-year notes by the U.S. Treasury witnessed demand that was the weakest ever, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04, the lowest on record. Yields on the Benchmark Treasury yield surged by 26 bps at the high—to reach a year high of 1.61% intra-day--before settling at 1.53% at the close of trading.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 07, 2021

TREASURY YIELDS SUGGEST A TOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months.  My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.

expect A Continued Rally As Long As Yields Stay Below Certain Levels

In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000.  This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20.  After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The cost of insuring against default has been declining – what this may suggest

You may recall hearing a lot about “credit default swaps” during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

As a reminder, a CDS is similar to an insurance contract, providing a bond investor with protection against a default.

In the past several months, the cost of that protection has fallen dramatically.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 13, 2020

Eyeing Upside in US Bonds TLT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Is it a coincidence that 10-Year YIELD climbed to 1.00% from 0.75% in the days following Pfizer's vaccine announcement (and perhaps in reaction to the apparent result of the Presidential Senate elections), and then hit a wall?

Not if we consider the big bad Fed lurking out there, scarfing up all Treasury supply even if the economic data appear to be stronger than expected.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.

Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:

Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish

Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun.

 It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is "not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates." Therefore, the stock market does not have to worry about a contraction in the rate of money printing any time soon. However, equities could soon plunge due to the crash in the amount of fiscal support offered to the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 27, 2020

U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI


Here's an update on the trend of 30-year U.S. Treasuries since the historic early March price moves

Back in early March, the behavior of the bond market was reminiscent of what unfolded during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Prices and yields were making major moves in a short period of time.

On March 5, the U.S. Treasury long bond closed at 173^30.0. The very next day, on March 6, the long bond rallied to 180^19.0, a whopping 6+point move, reaching a new all-time high.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Federal Reserve Notes Are Now “Backed” by Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: MoneyMetals

Wild price action and unprecedented interventions once again characterized this holiday-shortened trading week. 

Oil prices whipsawed lower Thursday on concerns about expected oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia.  But the general trend for most other assets, including metals and equities, was up – way up.

Stocks finished out the week with the major averages posting their biggest weekly gains in decades in the space of just four trading days.  Investors went on a buying spree based on hopes that we will soon see a definitive peak in coronavirus cases and begin the process of restarting the economy. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Is Yield Emerging Out Of A 38-Year Bear Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Yield has been in a bear market for 38 years. Is that about to end?

The 10-Year Treasury Yield has backed up from the Sep-Oct lows at 1.43% and 1.51% to a high at 1.97% last week. Is this a mere recovery "rally" in a still dominant 38-year bear market? Or is it a secondary low -- i.e., double-bottom -- 3+ years after the July 2016 historic low at 1.32%?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 18, 2019

US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)

Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Avi_Gilburt

Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.

Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 25, 2019

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.

The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.

Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.

I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.

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