Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Bond Market Shows Us The Power Of The Dark Side / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
First, I want to begin this article by thanking all those who read my articles for the amazing outpouring of support and prayers for my wife who is recovering from a freak accident. So, with her sleeping right now, I thought I would pen another article to at least keep myself somewhat busy.
Over the years, I have published many price trend change expectations which have hit quite well. Some examples include the top to gold in 2011 at 1915 (with gold topping at 1921), the bottom in the dollar in 2011 (with an expectation of a multi-year rally to within pennies of our target struck six years later), many major turning points in the S&P500, and many other calls throughout the last 8 years I have been publishing my market calls.
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Saturday, June 01, 2019
US Bond Market You Have to Invite the Vampire Into Your House / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.
You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Next Recession: Finding A 48% Yield Amid The Ruins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Amerman
In a previous analysis we examined how to create a 21% yield, as the incidental byproduct of the Fed's plans for the cyclical containment of recession.
In this analysis, we will deepen that examination and visually illustrate the financial mathematics that would create a potential 48% yield from what the Federal Reserve plans to do in the event of another recession.
This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.
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Sunday, November 11, 2018
Here’s Why 10%+ US Treasury Bond Yields Are a Real Possibility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
The US Treasury has closed the books on Fiscal Year 2018, which was another debt-financed failure.The federal government spent above $4.1 trillion in FY 2018. It had to borrow $779 billion on budget and a few hundred billion more off-budget.
And over 40% of the on-budget deficit went simply to pay $325 billion in interest on previously-issued debt.
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Monday, October 15, 2018
US Bond market Yields Break 20-year Trends / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Donald_W_Dony
Bond yields have been in decline for a long time. In fact, throughout the last 20 years, the 10 and 20 year US Treasury bonds yields have dropped by almost 80 percent.
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Thursday, October 04, 2018
US Bond Yields Positioned for Upside Acceleration / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Ten-year Yield has climbed to a new post-July 2016 (1.32%) high at 3.17%, the highest yield since July 2011, over 7 years ago!
From a technical perspective, today's surge above May-Oct 2018 resistance at 3.11% is a reaction to very strong recent data showing strong ADP Payrolls for September (230,000 vs. 185,000 expected), and impressive ISM Non-manufacturing data across the Headline data (61.6 vs. 58 expected), as well as the sub-surveys in Business Activity, Prices, Orders and Employment for September.
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Recommendation for Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: F_F_Wiley
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets.
I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding off on bonds for now (or in a moment) and don’t need all the detail to support my argument, I’ll share only a short summary of the first report.
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Tuesday, August 21, 2018
US Treasury Bonds $TNX Curveball Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Rambus_Chartology
Over the last several months or so I’ve been writing about the bond market throwing us a possible curveball. Instead of continuing rising interest rate we may see falling rates. Today the $TNX, 10 year treasury yield finally broke below the neckline we’ve been following that started to developing back in January of this year. I’ve labeled the H&S top as an unbalanced H&S top as the price action formed a second right shoulder that was a small H&S top. A backtest to the neckline would now come into play around the 28.65 area.
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides in Plain Sight / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: F_F_Wiley
It’s been awhile since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.
In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.
But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May, when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.
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Friday, May 25, 2018
The Bond Market Just Figured Out That Central Banks CANNOT Exit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
To recap yesterday’s piece concerning the recent shift in Central Bank policy, from mid-2016 onward:
1) Central Banks engaging in emergency levels of QE at a time in which their respective economies were growing.
2) Inflation bottoming then beginning to rise.
3) Bond markets starting to revolt.
4) Central Banks opting to walk back their QE programs.
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Monday, April 30, 2018
US Bond Market 10-Year Yield: From A 35-Year Bear To A Generational Bull Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In early March, 10-year yield was circling 2.87%. Now it is circling 3.00% for the first time in 4 years. The increase is probably shocking to many analysts and investors. Neither economic nor inflation data provide adequate justification for yield to be higher than it was two months ago. But there are times when the contradicting longer-term technical set-up should be heeded, even when the trend lacks strong support from lagging tabular data.
Friday, April 06, 2018
Why Are Markets Going Bonkers? Central Bankers Tried to Corner the Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The big questions being tossed around Wall Street today are: why are markets such a mess? Why are we getting these wild swings?
The reality is that the markets are NOT a mess. These are actually normal healthy markets. Healthy markets move, sometimes a lot in a small span of time.
The real issue is that from ’09 until recently, the market was completely artificial because Central Banks cornered ALL risk by cornering the sovereign bond market.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2018
The Bond Market is SCREAMING Inflation, But Stock Investors are Clueless / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Inflation is now reaching a crescendo.
The fact is that inflation develops in stages in the economy. The first stage concerns the price of items being bought and sold by wholesalers. We saw this begin to surge starting in the middle of last year. And it was a global phenomenon.
Paying more for something is manageable for a while. However, at some point the increase in prices is passed on into the economy in the form of more expensive goods and services. This is when inflation truly begins to become a problem.
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Friday, March 09, 2018
US Bond Market 3 Amigos Bottom Line / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.
Taking our macro indicators out of order, let’s start with Amigo #2, who we have been noting to be bracing for something…
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Stocks? Who Cares? You Should Worry about Something Else, Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Investors are still worried about the stock market. It’s quite understandable, given the recent correction, but it draws their attention away from the really important developments. Let’s analyze the hidden threats and consider how they could affect the gold prices.
It’s Bonds, Stupid!
Let’s establish one thing at the beginning. The bond market is more important than the stock market. First, it’s significantly bigger. The global bond market exceeds $100 trillion, while the global stock market is higher than $70 trillion. Point for bonds.
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Tuesday, February 20, 2018
4% US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The two most important factors in determining the level of sovereign bond yields are the credit and inflation risks extant within a nation. When determining a country’s ability to service its debt investors must analyze not only the absolute debt level, but also the ratios of debt and deficits to GDP. In addition, the current rate of inflation must also be viewed within the context of debt in order to make an accurate assumption as to the level of future inflation.
When analyzing historical measures of these criteria, the conclusion reached is that the U.S. 10-year Note yield should rise to at least four percent in the coming quarters.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2018
Is The 37 Year Bullish US Treasury Bond Market Ending? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
The bond market has enjoyed a strong bull market for nearly four decades with yields continuing to go lower. The bull market has been going on for so long that no current active fund manager can imagine what it looks like when interest rates were to be like the 1980s at 20%. If people in the 1980s started trading in their early thirties, they would have been almost 70 years old by now, so chances are they are not active in the market anymore.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.
However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.
Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.
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Thursday, February 01, 2018
Will the Threat of a Bear Market in Bonds Finally Get Stocks Attention? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
The single most important bond in the world is the US 10-Year Treasury bond.
According to modern financial theory, this bond, with a duration that is meant to cover a full economic cycle, is generally considered the “risk free” rate of the return for the entire financial system.
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