Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, March 09, 2021
US Bond Market Rocks the Richter Scale / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The global sovereign bond market is fracturing, and its ramifications for asset prices cannot be overstated. Borrowing costs around this debt-disabled world are now surging. The long-awaited reality check for those that believed they could borrow and print with impunity has arrived. From the U.S., to Europe and across Asia, February witnessed the biggest surge in borrowing costs in years.Thursday, February 25, 2021, was the worst 7-year Note Treasury auction in history. According to Reuters, the auction for $62 billion of 7-year notes by the U.S. Treasury witnessed demand that was the weakest ever, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04, the lowest on record. Yields on the Benchmark Treasury yield surged by 26 bps at the high—to reach a year high of 1.61% intra-day--before settling at 1.53% at the close of trading.
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Sunday, February 07, 2021
TREASURY YIELDS SUGGEST A TOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months. My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.
expect A Continued Rally As Long As Yields Stay Below Certain Levels
In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000. This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20. After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020
US Bond Market: "When Investors Should Worry" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The cost of insuring against default has been declining – what this may suggest
You may recall hearing a lot about “credit default swaps” during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
As a reminder, a CDS is similar to an insurance contract, providing a bond investor with protection against a default.
In the past several months, the cost of that protection has fallen dramatically.
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Friday, November 13, 2020
Eyeing Upside in US Bonds TLT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Is it a coincidence that 10-Year YIELD climbed to 1.00% from 0.75% in the days following Pfizer's vaccine announcement (and perhaps in reaction to the apparent result of the Presidential Senate elections), and then hit a wall?
Not if we consider the big bad Fed lurking out there, scarfing up all Treasury supply even if the economic data appear to be stronger than expected.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2020
How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market
Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.
Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:
Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish
Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.
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Thursday, July 16, 2020
Fiscal Cliffs and the Self-destructing Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun.
It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in on his unlimited QE and ZIRP. And, that he is "not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates." Therefore, the stock market does not have to worry about a contraction in the rate of money printing any time soon. However, equities could soon plunge due to the crash in the amount of fiscal support offered to the economy.
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Saturday, June 27, 2020
U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
Here's an update on the trend of 30-year U.S. Treasuries since the historic early March price moves
Back in early March, the behavior of the bond market was reminiscent of what unfolded during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
Prices and yields were making major moves in a short period of time.
On March 5, the U.S. Treasury long bond closed at 173^30.0. The very next day, on March 6, the long bond rallied to 180^19.0, a whopping 6+point move, reaching a new all-time high.
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Saturday, April 11, 2020
Federal Reserve Notes Are Now “Backed” by Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: MoneyMetals
Wild price action and unprecedented interventions once again characterized this holiday-shortened trading week.
Oil prices whipsawed lower Thursday on concerns about expected oil production cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia. But the general trend for most other assets, including metals and equities, was up – way up.
Stocks finished out the week with the major averages posting their biggest weekly gains in decades in the space of just four trading days. Investors went on a buying spree based on hopes that we will soon see a definitive peak in coronavirus cases and begin the process of restarting the economy.
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Thursday, November 14, 2019
Is Yield Emerging Out Of A 38-Year Bear Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Yield has been in a bear market for 38 years. Is that about to end?
The 10-Year Treasury Yield has backed up from the Sep-Oct lows at 1.43% and 1.51% to a high at 1.97% last week. Is this a mere recovery "rally" in a still dominant 38-year bear market? Or is it a secondary low -- i.e., double-bottom -- 3+ years after the July 2016 historic low at 1.32%?
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Friday, October 18, 2019
US Treasury Bonds Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater. Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.
We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart.
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Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Now That Bonds Have Pulled Back As Expected, Maybe We Can Set Up Another Rally / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
I think this market has been providing many investors with whipsaw and head aches, which has also caused much head scratching. (And, yes, that little itch may be telling you something.)
Back in November of 2018, no one even considered the possibility of a bond rally because the Fed was raising rates. And, recently, no one even considered the possibility of any type of top in bonds because the Fed is now lowering rates. Has anyone considered that maybe the Fed does not control the bond market? (See my prior articles for thoughts on this).
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jared_Dillian
When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?
- Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
- And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
Let me explain.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Looking For A US Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
Those that have followed my bond analysis since November have made quite a bit of money. While the stock market is basically in the same place it was back in the early fall of 2018 when we went long bonds, TLT has rallied from our entry in the 112/113 region in TLT to a high of almost 149.
Let me take a moment to recap my recent history and perspective on bonds. For those that followed our work over the years, you would know that we called for a top to the bond market on June 27, 2016, with the market striking its highs within a week of our call. Right after that top call, TLT dropped 22%, until we saw the bottoming structure develop in late 2018.
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Sunday, August 25, 2019
If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Investing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jared_Dillian
The first thing I read about investing wasn’t actually a book. It was a pamphlet that I got somewhere, 23 years ago.
The pamphlet said you should invest in bonds as well as stocks. It said bonds went up when interest rates went down, and vice versa. It didn’t go into any more detail.
Well, I did what the pamphlet said, even though I had no idea what the hell I was doing, and I wouldn’t figure out for a few more years why it was a good idea.
I suspect a lot of people don’t take that advice on diversification simply because they don’t know what the hell they are doing.
Friday, August 16, 2019
When the US Bond Market Bubble Blows Up! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and me was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!
Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
You Have to Buy Bonds Even When Interest Rates Are Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jared_Dillian
Interest rates are currently low.That is by far the biggest concern among bond investors. They are drowning in worry about low interest rates and their effect on bonds. So let’s address that.
Saying interest rates are currently low is another way of saying that bonds are expensive—which makes people not want to invest in bonds. Fair enough.
Stocks are also expensive—but you invest in those!
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.
If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.
But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.
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Saturday, August 10, 2019
EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: QUANTO
The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.
Wednesday, August 07, 2019
Are You Still Trying To “Fade” The Bond Market Rally? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Avi_Gilburt
For weeks, if not months, I have been reading one bearish bond article after another. In fact, many of these same writers have been arguing with me for months about the bond rally I expected back in November of 2018. One suggests that this rally is really a “fake,” whereas another has been strongly suggesting that investors fade this rally, with many more supporting their opinions. The problem is that these analysts have been trying to “fade” this rally for the last 10-15% up. Yet, I will gladly bank my “fake” 20% profits on this trade.
As each week goes by, I continue to chuckle about how many people do not understand the context of the markets upon which they opine. Remember how certain analysts and investors were that rates were only headed higher back in November of 2018?
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Friday, August 02, 2019
Post FED US Bond Market Yield Spread Falls Further: Risk Aversion is at the Door / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: QUANTO
All Powell needed to do was cut rates and to soften the blow on the short end of the curve, he needed to speak of the strong economy and that would have controlled the 1 month and 3 month and 2 year yields. Instead he ended up confusing about recovery and talking of nonsensicall comical terms like insurance cut etc. These are jargons that one should never use.
The reaction from the bond market was immediate as the 1 month and 3 month yield jumped sharply. Money was flowing out to the long end which is exactly what Powell didnt want to happen when he said "inflation gets baked in to bond yields". Even as he was saying, that is what was happening. We take a look at some of the charts which define and go beyond normal technical and trend lines for forex. We have always suggested: NEVER TRADE FOREX ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS. THEY ARE LAGGING. TO LOOK BACK AND TRADE FORWARD IS FOOLISHNESS.
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