Category: Volatility
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Friday, June 17, 2011
Trading Stock Market Fear VXO / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The stock markets’ sharp June selloff is waking traders from their complacent slumber. The risk of a significant selloff, long ignored, has surged back to the forefront of market psychology. These pullbacks and corrections are healthy and necessary within ongoing bull markets, but they don’t end until fear grows great enough to rebalance sentiment. And today, stock fear is still too low for a bottoming.
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Demystifying the Stock Market VIX Volatility Index / Stock-Markets / Volatility
In 1993, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced the CBOE Market Volatility Index. The CBOE Market Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, measures the volatility of the U.S. equity market. It provides investors with up-to-the-minute market estimates of expected volatility by using real-time OEX index option bid/ask quotes.
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Thursday, April 21, 2011
Beyond The Stock Market VIX Volatility Index / Stock-Markets / Volatility
I have traded options for a number of years and fully understand the "greeks" as should any active options trader. When you understand options you realize how valuable of a tool they are for investing, managing risk and understanding market sentiment. They are not as risky as many think. Before I share a rather important chart, I think it is important to go over a few option basics to fully appreciate what the data is telling you.
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Monday, April 11, 2011
A Pivot Point on the VIX? / Stock-Markets / Volatility
There is something important happening on the VIX that I want to point out today ...
Note, that we have a yellow, down slopping resistance line on the VIX chart that goes from June 2010 to April 2011. That resistance line was penetrated to the upside on February 22nd ... the very day that the market started pulling back.
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
What the VIX is Saying for the Stock Market... / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The VIX is regarded as the Fear Index by many, so you would expect it to be screaming "Fear" after yesterday's market drop, the Libyan and Saudi troubles, and the huge earthquake in Japan.
It isn't ... instead it is showing that the market is acting like it is relatively undaunted by all the above concerns.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
What The Stock Market VIX Volatility Index May Be Telling Us / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Take a look at the chart of the VXX, which is the volatility index or commonly known as the FEAR index.
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Sunday, September 12, 2010
The Stock Market VIX Indicator to Gauge and Profit from the Market’s Mood / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Karim Rahemtulla writes: After you’ve read this article, the next time someone asks you, “Hey, how’s the market looking?” you’ll know what to say – and sound smart saying it!
Not only that, the information I’m about to share with you will also give you a valuable clue as to when to buy and sell your stocks.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Trap Like Pattern in VIX / Stock-Markets / Volatility
We have to be impressed with the market's resiliency today after hitting new recovery highs, because weakness thereafter has been very much contained, at least so far. That said, however, I am "concerned" about the "trap-like" pattern that has developed in the hourly Volality Index (VIX). Let's notice that the VIX made multi-month lows this morning at 22.70, but has since climbed back above 23.20, which so far has "trapped" VIX bears (SPX bulls).
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Friday, May 14, 2010
What's the VIX Saying For the Stock Market Trend? / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Remember the old story of the "Three blind men and the elephant"?
In the tale, each man touches a different part of the elephant and think it is something different. One thinks its a snake, another a tree, and the versions of this story carry on. But, what is the same is that all three disagree with each other and are in conflict.
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Friday, May 14, 2010
The Stock Market Fix is in the VIX / Stock-Markets / Volatility
To measure the ongoing success or failure of massive QE "working groups" interventions, all one needs to keep an eye on is the VIX. Readings below 20 suggest, "The FIX is in", whereas readings above 20 diminish the mission control effort to reflate monopoly-saving bubbles.
In effort to maintain control of supreme monopolies, policy makers and monetary authorities have successfully fostered an egregiously false paradigm of ever-rising paper asset values in setting policy and enacting legislation that in effect "FIXES the VIX" to extraordinarily low levels. This fuels rampant speculation, and excessive risk taking without regard for useful gains in productivity and the real economy over the medium or long-term.
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Friday, May 07, 2010
Stock Market Investors Keep a Close Eye on VIX Investor Fear / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Historically, the “fear index,” or the VIX, had minimal impact on the price of precious metals. However, as investors forgo treasury bonds in search of even safer investments, the VIX is correlating very well with the price of precious metals.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Stock Market Volatility Rises as S&P 500 Nears March Low / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Probability models (Monte Carlo) suggest that there is a 70% chance of the next key low developing in March for the S&P 500.
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Sunday, September 20, 2009
Complacency Returns to the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Brian Hunt writes: Volatility, we hardly knew ye.
Back in 2006, we pointed to depressed levels of the VIX as an excuse to buy cheap "portfolio insurance" against the likes of terrorist attacks and government-sponsored disasters.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Peaking Risk Appetite Reversal Sends Crude Oil and Stock Markets Higher / Stock-Markets / Volatility
VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - Just when we started highlighting the case for peaking risk appetite in last week's article, oil prices picked up the mantle for the bulls and triggered the sell USD, buy risk trade, partly caused by a plunge in weekly crude oil inventories.
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Has Stock Market Volatility Ended Or Is It About To Resume? / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Thanks to the rally of the last three weeks, which saw the S&P 500 quickly gain 12.1%, the market, which was down for the year just three weeks ago, is now up, the Dow and S&P 500 up almost 10% for the year.
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Monday, June 29, 2009
Stock Market Complacency as Measured by VIX Returns to Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Bloomberg is reporting VIX Drops to Lowest Level Since Lehman’s Collapse as Fear Ebbs.
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Saturday, May 02, 2009
Stock Market VIX Volatility Still High / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The VIX (a measure of options volatility, an indicator of stock market volatility risk, and reputedly a “fear gauge”) has come down so far from being historically high, that commentators now speak of it as low. The fact is that is it still high relative to the intermediate past.
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Stock Market Volatility VIX Forecasts Trends / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Does a down moving VIX always mean that the market will move up?
As you are well aware, the market is often in conflict with opposing conditions.
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Thursday, January 22, 2009
Wild Stock Market Swings in Losing Session / Stock-Markets / Volatility
The market certainly got some volatility today, down in the morning, up mid-day and then back down late in the day. But it ended with losses for the session. The day started out with a big gap down on negative futures. They backed and filled in the morning, bear-flagged, and then went lower, reaching the session lows by mid-morning. That was right at yesterday's mid-day lows. When those levels held the indices then staged a rally.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock and Currency Markets Risk Aversion Ahead of Obama Inauguration / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally. Having made their third failed attempt to rise more than 25% since the intensification of the crisis, equities, VIX and the yen are expected to further move in the direction of prolonged reduction in risk appetite (equities negative, yen positive, VIX positive). I warned in the Jan 2 nd piece Risk Appetite Pushes the Envelope that the trio of risk appetite will be constrained near 940 for the S&P500, $850 for gold (having failed to break its 8-week cycle gains) and 92.50 yen in USDJPY.Read full article... Read full article...