Category: Volatility
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Why Falling VIX Could Mean NO Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
The answer to a subscriber's puzzling question: "The VIX goes down, and the S&P moves up. The VIX goes up, and the S&P goes down. But, sometimes the VIX goes down and instead of going up, the S&P moves in a sideways trading range . Can you tell me why?" Thanks, DJ
Thanks for the question, it is an important one because if you don't understand why, then you will not trust the VIX (Volatility Index) as an indicator. Investors need to trust their indicators, and when they can't trust them, they need to know why.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2008
VIX- Important Stock Market Indicator / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
An important indicator to focus on this week : Fear and confidence ... two opposite emotions that play an important function in the stock market.
With fear and negative expectations, investors won't buy ... or worse, they will SELL driving the market down.
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Friday, December 12, 2008
Stock Market Extreme Panic Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Zeal_LLC
If it is not already happening, someday soon some entrepreneur will start selling t-shirts proclaiming “I Survived the Great Stock Panic of 2008”. The last few months' market action has been so unprecedented, and so brutally unforgiving to trade, that emerging from it ready to keep trading is an impressive feat. Many traders have lost everything because of their leverage while many more have totally given up on trading.
As a speculator, I found this stock panic very painful like everyone else and I can't wait for the markets to resume some semblance of normalcy. But as a student of the markets, the last few months were the most fascinating I have ever witnessed. People are going to be talking about and studying the Great Stock Panic of 2008 for generations. Yet we got to live through it and witness its fury firsthand in real-time!
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Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Financial Markets Heading for Less Volatility During 2009 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Clif_Droke
If you had to choose one word to describe this year, it would probably be “volatile.” That 2008 was characterized by volatility is an understatement. Such volatility hasn’t been seen in decades.
Not only was price volatility at an extreme this year but so was share turnover. Take a look at the following chart of the NYSE Composite Index for 2008. The red dots indicate the number of times the upside/downside or downside/upside trading volume ratio was beyond the boundary that has historically characterized “overbought” or “oversold.” Needless to say 2008 was a record year in terms of volume turnover.
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Friday, December 05, 2008
Stock Market Volatility Connecting the Dots Analysis Video / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: INO
One of the easiest ways to determine the trend in any market is simply to connect the dot's. In this five minute video, I explain how you can connect the dots in any market to determine its trend. I will show you three examples of connecting the dots...
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Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Stock Market Caution, Caution, and More Caution / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Jack_Steiman
Just when you think you have this figured out in this impossible environment, you recognize you don't -- and thus the reason to be either all cash or very close to it. Getting aggressive in any way, shape or form is incredibly inappropriate. Two days ago things looked good. Monday made things look bad, but Tuesday not so bad as those daily Macd's hung in there very well -- but of course could totally collapse tomorrow out of no where. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Stock Market is Not in Uncharted Territory / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: John_Mauldin
This week we visit some very thoughtful analysis by an old friend of Outside the Box, Dr. John Hussman of the Hussman Funds ( http://www.hussmanfunds.com/ index.html ). Is it 1932? Are we in a Depression? Where is the bottom? John gives us a very balanced view and actually offers some positive insight on the markets. There may be light ahead. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Stock Market VIX At Critical Pivot Point / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
What just reached an critical "Pivot Point"?
The Volatility Index is at an important "Pivot Point". Yesterday, it closed on a critical 4 week support line .
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Monday, September 29, 2008
Commodities Downtrend Due to Genuine Lack of Liquidity / Commodities / Volatility
By: Captain_Hook
Even some of the most brilliant guys in the business don't get what's happening to the commodity markets right now. They don't get the fact it's not manipulation and government intervention that are causing prices to CONTINUE falling (although a push was provided via intervention), but a genuine lack of liquidity combined with intensifying gambling practices by the general investing population (dip buying is not providing the sentiment washout required to sponsor an enduring rally), that when added together, is producing this ‘lethal move' lower in anything that is commodity related, including precious metals. So you see, manipulation and intervention have little to do with ‘the price of tea in China' at this point past the policy mistake authorities were destined to make all along in triggering a genuine mid-term correction in commodities and precious metals, which was discussed in our last meeting . Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 22, 2008
The Fed and Government Have NOT Erased Investor Fears... / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
As you may recall, last Friday we mentioned that, "The big problems have not been erased. We still have rising unemployment, a credit crunch, a recession, and a weak economy that many analyst expect to weaken further." ... and, "My point is that, if we do get an upside rally, it will still be an up move in a Bear Market. Before anyone gets exuberant, investors need to see if Institutions will back a rally, and that did not happen yet in yesterday's (Thursday's) short covering rally. " Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Stock Market VIX Volatility and the 6 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Clif_Droke
Volatility tends to run very high during years in which the Kress 6-year cycle is bottoming. Volatility has indeed been a major factor this year and it has been years since we've seen it as high this year. As I'll attempt to show you here, this increased volatility can be ascribed to the influence of the 6-year cycle which has been “hard down” this year and is due to bottom in later September.
The 6-year cycle tends to have a deflationary impact on financial assets, especially stocks and real estate. This has been reflected in the weak real estate market as well as the bear market in stocks this year. The S&P has been a victim of the 6-year cycle-related volatility as money has rotated from stocks to commodities and back again throughout the year. The wild merry-go-round ride that this volatility has inflicted on traders isn't over just yet, though it should be ending in just a matter of weeks.
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Thursday, July 17, 2008
Stock Market VIX Indicator Pointing to Final Capitulation Lows / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
Staggered capitulation indications are now coming in from market indicators ...
Everyone is looking at the VIX (Volatility Index) and wondering where and when it will show the capitulation that the Pit Traders have been looking for.
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Wednesday, July 09, 2008
All Eyes on Crude Oil … As Usual / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Black_Swan
All those investors on and off Wall Street whose focus is on buying stocks must have sweat through a closet full of shirts by now. The outlook for the stock market is not pretty. And when second quarter earnings season arrives, well, things could get even uglier…they say.
It’s a tough job playing cheerleader for a losing team and waiting for a turnaround, even when Tout TV is on your side. Just ask those die-hard Cubs fans about that if you’re wondering. Unfortunately, it seems to us like it could be a while before this turnaround in stocks materializes.
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Monday, June 09, 2008
Volatility Rocks The Investment Markets / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Steve_Selengut
Gets your attention, doesn't it? The unfortunate thing though, is that most people will react negatively to this intentionally inflammatory, media-ready, title statement. Has some Wall Street virus attacked our financial experience memory chip? Bouncing around unpredictably is precisely what the markets have always done. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the markets to significantly higher levels. Volatility is not a bad thing--- a non-event, even.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Stock Market Increasing Volatility Signaling a Powerful Move / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
A big market decision is approaching: Expect increasing market Volatility in the coming days ... and then a powerful move afterwards.
The reason : Everyday, we track the Long Term Inflowing Liquidity going into the markets. This is a liquidity driven market, so this is an important underlying element to what the stock market does.
(This study is posted daily on the paid subscriber website.)
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Stock Market Down Movements and the Volatility Index's Concentric Circle Pattern / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
It has been months since I posted our VIX Concentric Circle chart . It has always been one of the free subscriber favorites in the past.
From 2003 to mid 2006, the Volatility Index followed a perfect concentric circle pattern where the bottom of the circle was the Support for the VIX as seen below.
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Monday, October 29, 2007
With Market Uncertainty Comes Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Regent_Markets
Last week world stock markets made a decent stab at recovering from the previous week's rout. The strongest market was again the Nasdaq, with the new economy shrugging off the previous Friday's wobble to finish near its highs. Interest rate rumours thrust the market higher, as whispers of another 50 base point cut did the rounds. Few people wanted to be short going into what is expected to be another obliging FOMC meeting on Wednesday.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2007
Higher Stock Market Volatility / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Marty_Chenard
Yesterday, we discussed why the NYA Index (New York Stock Exchange) is an important index to watch ... because most of all the program trading occurs on it, and the large Institutional trades are found here.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 27, 2007
Volatility As a Stock Market Indicator / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Hans_Wagner
Investors seeking to beat the stock market are always looking for a way to help predict the trends that lead to profits. The movements up and down create opportunities for investors and traders. They also create serious risks and can cause investors to panic and sell at the wrong time. Knowing how use this volatility can help investors improve their performance.
What is Volatility?Volatility is a measure of dispersion around the mean or average return of a security. While there are several ways to measure volatility one of the most common is to use the statistical measure called the standard deviation. A standard deviation tells an observer of a stock or index how tightly grouped it is around an average, such as the moving average. A small standard deviation means the price is tightly bunched together. A large standard deviation means the price is spread apart.
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