Category: HyperInflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Socialist Venezuela to Slash Six Zeros from Its Failed Currency / Currencies / HyperInflation
By: MoneyMetals
After getting off to a rough start to open the week, precious metals markets appear to be stabilizing.
Gold and silver prices got walloped in a futures selling raid ahead of Monday’s market open. Some leveraged speculators who faced margin calls had to sell long positions to raise cash.
This sort of forced selling is indicative of a possible washout bottom. But we will need to see a stronger snapback in the days ahead in order to confirm that.
Metals markets have responded poorly this summer to inflation data that continues to come in hot. Hard assets are taking a back seat to the stock market where rising prices have actually helped large companies post better than expected quarterly profits.
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Sunday, June 27, 2021
Two Reasons Hyperinflation Is Unlikely / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
The correct definition of inflation is “the debasement of money by government and central banks“.
The effects of inflation show up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.
Hyperinflation is defined as “out-of-control general price increases in an economy, …typically measuring more than 50% per month.” (source)
There are two specific reasons why hyperinflation re: out of control general price increases for all goods and services, possible US dollar collapse, etc., is unlikely.
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Saturday, June 19, 2021
Hyperinflationary Expectations: Reflections on Cryptocurrency and the Markets / Economics / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers insights from bear markets of the past to illuminate the "business of money." How quickly we forget.
In each of the last five bear markets since the 1970s, I have etched into my neural storage unit memories as strong and clear as if they happened yesterday. Each one of those nasty declines were accompanied with events that marked the tops and bottoms, consistently found in errant behaviors, and whether they originate from greed, fear or desperation, they were memorable.
Some of those events were the irrational decisions of the investment industry, which always increases staff at the tops and reduces staff at major bottoms. It is found in the emotion-charged decisions of clients who would write letters of complaint because I would not them buy shares in the Hot Stock of the Month, usually some dilly named "Underground Airlines" or "Rectal Gas."
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Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
A fundamental tenet regarding money and inflation is that ongoing money creation by governments and central banks (Federal Reserve) cheapens the value of all money (US dollars) in circulation and leads to a loss of purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power shows up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.
As long as the amount of money that is created is somewhat moderate and regular, then the effects are presumed to be moderate, as well. Hence, we experience increases in the cost of living on an ongoing basis, but in incremental amounts of maybe two or three percent each year.
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Thursday, April 02, 2020
Could the US Become Another Weimar Republic? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, discuss the potential ramifications of current U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.
The U.S. monetary and fiscal authorities are shoveling trillions of dollars into the U.S. economy to prevent a collapse of the economy and the financial system. Will this money be repaid or otherwise withdrawn from the system? If not, what consequences can we anticipate? We know under TARP the loans and preference share funding provided to various companies in 2008/9 was largely repaid. We expect most large companies will repay the loans they receive this time also, but the terms will be very easy and they will be made easier if needed. Money for state governments, hospitals and other emergency health-related expenditures is not coming back. Most of the money to smaller companies will likely be in the form of grants if they keep employees on salary. Money directly to individuals will not be repaid.
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
Iran Is Not Hyperinflating / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Each and every day we read that Iran is hyperinflating or about to hyperinflate. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare-ups. While Iran came close to hyperinflating in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And while Zimbabwe experienced episodes of hyperinflation in 2007–08 and in 2017, it is not experiencing one now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing hyperinflation.
It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.” To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must define the word. So, just what is the definition of the oft-misused word “hyperinflation?” The convention adopted in the scientific literature is to classify an inflation as a hyperinflation if the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50 percent. This definition was adopted in 1956, after Phillip Cagan published his seminal analysis of hyperinflation, which appeared in a book edited by Milton Friedman, Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money.
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Monday, November 18, 2019
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Drags On For A Near Record—36 Months / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela is the only country in the world that is suffering from the ravages of hyperinflation. But, you wouldn’t know it from reading the press, where playing fast and loose with words is commonplace. Indeed, the word “hyperinflation” is thrown around carelessly and misused frequently, with claims that multiple countries are suffering from hyperinflation. The debasement of language in the popular press has gone to such lengths that the word “hyperinflation” has almost lost its meaning.
So, just what is the definition of this oft-misused word? The convention adopted in the scientific literature is to classify an inflation as a hyperinflation if the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%. This definition was adopted in 1956, after Phillip Cagan published his seminal analysis of hyperinflation, which appeared in a book, edited by Milton Friedman, Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
The Three M's of Hyperinflation : Milosevic, Mugabe, And Maduro / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
What do Slobodan Milosevic, Robert Mugabe, and Nicolás Maduro have in common? Other than being leaders who kept the Communist Manifesto at their bedside, all three ushered in devastating hyperinflations.
Hyperinflations are rare. They have only occurred when the supply of money has been governed by discretionary paper money standards. No hyperinflation has ever been recorded when money has been commodity-based or when paper money has been convertible into a commodity.
The first hyperinflation occurred during the French Revolution (1789-96) when the mandat collapsed and the monthly inflation rate peaked at 143% in December of 1795. More than a century elapsed before another episode of hyperinflation occurred. Not coincidentally, this period of currency tranquility occurred during the heyday of the gold standard. With the emergence and adoption of fiat currencies, the 20th century ushered in currency instability and inflation. Indeed, since 1900 there have been 57 episodes of hyperinflation. And, five of those episodes can be claimed by Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. All are featured in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table below, which first appeared in The Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History (2013).
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Hyperinflation -- A Kaleidoscope Of Uses And Abuses / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The word “hyperinflation” is sprinkled throughout the press each day. We read that Iran is hyperinflating. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare ups. While Iran came close to a hyperinflation in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And, while Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation episodes in 2007-2008 and 2017, it is not hyperinflating now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing a hyperinflation. It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.”
To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must heed the words of the great Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founders of the Austrian School of Economics, who, in 1891, wrote “…We too must bring into our science a strict order and discipline, which we are still far from having…by a disorderly and ambiguous terminology we are led into the most palpable mistakes and misunderstandings – all these failings are of so frequent occurrence in our science that they almost seem to be characteristic of its style.”
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Venezuela's Hyperinflation Hits 80,000% Per Year in 2018 / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela's economy has collapsed. This is the result of years of socialism, incompetence, and corruption, among other things. An important element that mirrors the economy's collapse is Venezuela's currency, the bolivar. It is not trustworthy. Venezuela's exchange rate regime provides no discipline. It only produces instability, poverty, and the world’s highest inflation rate for 2018. Indeed, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate at the end of 2018 was 80,000%.
I observed much of Venezuela’s economic dysfunction first-hand during the 1995-96 period, when I acted as President Rafael Caldera’s adviser. But it wasn’t until 1999, when Hugo Chavez was installed as president, that the socialist seeds of Venezuela’s current meltdown started to be planted. This is not to say that Venezuela had not suffered from an unstable currency and elevated inflation rates before the arrival of President Chavez, but with his ascendancy, fiscal and monetary discipline further deteriorated and inflation ratcheted up. By the time President Nicolas Maduro arrived in early 2013, annual inflation was in triple digits and rising. Venezuela entered what has become a death spiral.
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Hyperinflation - Zimbabwe's Monetary Death Spiral / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
President Mnangagwa’s pledge that Zimbabwe is “open for business” rings hollow. Indeed, many businesses in Zimbabwe are shuttered. An increase in government controlled fuel prices over the weekend has ignited simmering fury over what is in fact a currency crisis. In response, Zimbabwe’s security forces have launched a violent crackdown on protestors and opposition politicians. The crackdown has been done under the cover of a social media blackout. Yes, the internet is shuttered, too.
In a sense, the only thing new in this uprising is President Mnangagwa himself. Recall that it was he who organized a coup that removed the long-serving, strongman Robert Mugabe from power in 2017. This was followed by what many claim was a rigged election by the Mugabe-Mnangagwa ruling ZANU-PF party. Rigged or not, the election gave Mnangagwa’s Presidency the patina of legitimacy.
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Wednesday, November 07, 2018
Zimbabwe's Road to Serfdom / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In 1944, my good friend, the late Nobelist Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), published the Road to Serfdom. It immediately became an international sensation. In it, Hayek argued that government interventions into markets, whether they be via regulatory mandates or the outright taking of private property, will lead to an initial failure. In short, they will be counterproductive. In an attempt to correct its initial errors, the government then does more of the same, only in greater detail. Further disappointments will lead to still more far-reaching and detailed interventionist measures, until socialism and a state of total tyranny are reached.
Sunday, August 19, 2018
Venezuela's Great Bolivar Scam, Nothing but a Face Lift / Currencies / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
In the days leading up to Venezuela’s currency reform, which is set for August 20th, the bolivar has taken yet another deep dive. The chart below shows the bolivar’s free fall and the massive gap between the official exchange rate of 248,521 VEF/USD and the black-market (read: free-market) exchange rate of 6,670,079 VEF/USD. That gap results in a whopping black market premium of 2,584%. It also produces huge profits for Maduro’s cronies who have access to the official rate. They can purchase greenbacks for peanuts and sell them on the black market for an instantaneous profit of 2,584%.
Friday, March 16, 2018
South Africa To Copy Zimbabwe Model To Hyperinflation‘Prosperity’ / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jeff_Berwick
Doesn’t South Africa have the internet yet? Or, even books?
The new South African finance minister, Nhlanhla Nene, has just come out with an amazing plan to help the people! He will devalue their money into worthlessness! This always works out well.
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Thursday, November 16, 2017
Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe / Currencies / HyperInflation
By: GoldCore
– Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe
– Real inflation in Zimbabwe is 313 percent annually and 112 percent on a monthly basis
– Venezuela’s new 100,000-bolivar note is worth less oday thehan USD 2.50
– Maduro announces plans to eliminate all physical cash
– Gold rises in response to ongoing crises
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
The Hyperinflationary Death Watch / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. – Alan Greenspan
Every hyperinflation is unique. No one wants the chaos it will bring. We are not rooting for it. Monetary crisis is always part and parcel or a extension of the inevitable cycles of history.
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Monday, July 25, 2016
Japan’s Lemming Central Bank Blindly on the Path Towards Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: Michael_Pento
The financial world is buzzing about former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's recent trip to Japan, where he advised Japan's central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda on how to manage his nation out of multi-decades of stagnant growth. Channeling economist Milton Friedman, Bernanke warned that Japan was vulnerable to perpetual deflation and stagnate growth and that helicopter money--where the government issues non-marketable bonds with no maturity date and the Central Bank buys them with counterfeited credit--was the most useful tool in overcoming this condition.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Steve Hanke On Hyperinflation Hype / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The Great Recession of 2008-09 brought with it quantitative easing. This, in turn, spawned a cottage industry of books, articles and blog posts about hyperinflation. The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.
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Monday, March 16, 2015
Hyperinflation is a Process / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Reserve currency or no, hyperinflation is a process. And we are fully entrenched in that process. History defines the parameters for us.
Too much debt, too much money created from nothing. And ultimately, the loss of confidence, leading to panic. Those who deny it are not looking, not measuring correctly, or both. Much of the confusion comes from the unnecessary use of jargon and euphemism.
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