Category: Stock Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Stock Market Correcting... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
You probably expected a much more dramatic title, but there's nothing bad going on here. The market is barely down off the recent highs, so a pullback of a few percent doesn't mean very much. Things look worse than they really are off the top. That doesn't mean things aren't about to get worse as they probably are to some degree, but it's important to make the distinction between something being bearish or just pulling back to unwind things. If you're wondering what I'm talking about, look at the charts folks. S&P 500 is 3% off the top. That's it. Yes, the Nasdaq 100 is leading down, but the majority of the market is hardly down enough worth talking about off the recent highs. We got very overbought for a long period of time. We had sentiment getting stretched out. Nearly 30% spread in the bull-bear war, now in the teens. But the numbers were up there on everything from sentiment to just about every last oscillators.
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Friday, October 19, 2012
Best Stock Market Shorting Opportunity in 300 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Marc_Horn
In the previous big picture FTSE - a Rose between Two Thorns in May, MAP Analysis projected the retest of last year’s top, which has failed. Now here we are two more fractal waves scales down with 2 more retest failures!! Not good for UK which by my analysis is much further down the road of decay than Germany (for DAX analysis click here) which is one subwave ahead of the DJIA as presented in DOW Stock Market Index 2007 Retest Failure – Game Over USA published last week.
However we all know that even with traditional EW analysis of ABC etc that can change fast!. Those of you who are familiar with EW replace each colour scale -2 with a b and you will clearly see the nesting of b's! Not good coming off a high!
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Thursday, October 18, 2012
Stock Market Thrill is Gone – Rally Tired or Just Resting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
For anyone who's been paying attention for the last two years – that's usually not a good thing and, as we noted yesterday, it was a strong Euro and a weak Dollar that was driving our little rally. The Dollar bottomed out at 79 and the Euro topped out at $1.314 and the Euro's strength sent the Yen back up to 79.30 to the Dollar (weaker) and that led to a 2% Nikkei rally last night. As you can see from the chart on the right, the S&P for the week is 1% behind UK and Germany and 2.5% behind France and Italy (+4%) and Spain (+7%) – so we have a lot of catching up to do if this rally is real and sustainable.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
IBM, INTC Disappoint... Stock Market Hangs Tough...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
I have spoken often about looking for signs about what type of market we're in. One clue is to watch how the market handles bad news that comes from just about anywhere, especially earnings. We had a disaster last night in two key places from the world of technology. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) and Intel Corporation (INTC), two major market leaders and economic indicators, both said things were eroding. Not good news to be sure.
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Monday, October 15, 2012
Stock Market Final Bounce Before Panic / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is making a final bounce from its 50-day moving average at 1429.27 before reversing down toward mid-Cycle support at 1377.06. Intermediate-term resistance is at 1439.44, but it’s a toss-up whether SPX will get that far. The trend is still down, but the panic does not begin until it is below the 50-day moving average again.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Stock Market A Year-End Rally Is Soon Underway! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Darah_Bazargan
The integrity of a particular resistance level at which prices breakout from is only called into question if the subsequent retest lacks the ability to ‘hold’ above the breakout point. Failure to do so would be a sign of trouble that requires more effort among buyers to ‘absorb’ the oversupply of shares at hand. However, the fact that market fluctuations can be irrational at times; there are cases when the breakout level is not necessarily the fulcrum point. Instead prices have room to ‘give’ but still remain above the general stopping area. This can be equally as valid so long as there comes a period of consolidation 'above' where buyers can defend the newly established higher level of support .
Sunday, October 14, 2012
DOW Stock Market Index 2007 Retest Failure – Game Over USA / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Marc_Horn
The DJIA has confirmed the failure of it 2007 top, confirming that we are indeed in the third wave down after completing Q-2.
In March I projected the ideal Q-2 reaching 13750 by November in Dow Stock Market Index Ready to Form a Major Top
I have spent a lot of time on methods to help confirm pivots quicker and have overcome this issue and now am testing time warping fractal waves. Because I am a simpleton it is a rule based single A4 page! I will shortly be publishing something on that so click follow on my blog to get it hot off the press.
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Sunday, October 14, 2012
Stock Market Downtrend May Be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Tony_Caldaro
The bull market that has been full of surprises dropped another one this week. Early in the week the Tech indices, NDX/NAZ, confirmed downtrends. Ending a three month uptrend in those indices. The Cyclical indices, SPX/DOW, continued higher into October with the DOW making a new bull market high. However, they too are weakening now. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.10%. Asian markets lost 1.1%, European markets lost 1.9%, and the DJ World index lost 2.0%. On the economic front things continue to improve: positive reports out numbered negatives ones 8 to 1. On the downtick: the Trade deficit expanded. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, the PPI, a Budget surplus, and weekly Jobless claims declined. Next week we get a look at Housing, Industrial production and Retail sales.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Stock Market Forecast for the Coming Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Manas_Banerji
Market is expecting stimulus from China and looks like in this moment that is the one thing that may take markets in more higher levels, this is considering the fact that never ending Euro-zone debt fever is not going to improve much in coming days. Rise in Chinese export for September was good but in coming week Chinese inflation and 3rd quarter growth figures are due to come and those may be huge important events for market. On the other hand expectations are still high about Spanish bail-out and corresponding bond buying by ECB, now it will be very interesting to see whether stock markets get any good thing from that episode.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Stock Market Worst Week Since Memorial Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: PhilStockWorld
Despite positive pre-market futures, the S&P 500 struggled at the open but rallied around the amazingly strong Consumer Sentiment report. But alas the gains had no staying power. Earnings season continues to weigh heavily, with the popular press pointing to concerns about shrinking profit margins in big financials (e.g., the fine print in in the quarterly reports of Wells Fargo and JP Morgan). The S&P 500 closed the day with a modest 0.30% decline, but the tally for the week was -2.21%, the worst weekly close since the four-day Memorial Day week (which saw a 3.02% plunge).
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Stock Market Correction Continues... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
The question people are asking is really more about whether this is the beginning of something far more significant than just an ordinary pullback. When markets want to sell, they do so more than the average bull would like. This creates fear and pessimism, the two things the market needs. Markets find a way to do their dirty deeds. When it has its head down, you need to step out of the way. There isn't much anyone can do to stop the machine when the light has flashed red. So now folks will wonder. What we have to do is look objectively, and ask the same question. To me, this is right in line with what one may have expected once the market snapped. It has stair-stepped its way down with some acceleration lately.
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Saturday, October 13, 2012
Stock Market Investors Confident Despite Global Recession Threat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Sy_Harding
It’s been a most unusual - some say crazy - year for global stock markets, certainly including that of the U.S.The global economic recovery from the 2007-2009 financial collapse stalled last year and continues to worsen this year, with the International Monetary Fund cutting its forecasts for global economic recovery yet again, including for the U.S., and warning four days ago that risks of the world dropping back into a global recession “are alarmingly high”, and that “no significant improvements appear in the offing.”
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Thursday, October 11, 2012
Stock Market Pop and Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
he daily and even the hourly charts often do not reveal the detail of the waves enough to make a good assessment. This morning I go to the 10-minute chart to reveal the clarity of the wave pattern. This suggests that after a brief rally (which may already be over), the market resumes its downward spiral. Today is both a Pivot and Wild Card reversal day, so in that sense, the retracement is welcome. The 50-day moving average is just beneath yesterday’s lows at 1426.00. It appears that, once crossed, selling will resume in earnest.
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Thursday, October 11, 2012
Stock Market Profit Taking Event in Progress / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
Since the breakdown out of the bear flag on the dollar index hasn't followed through, the odds now favor that the dollar has generated an intermediate degree bottom. First off this should be a countertrend move as I think the three year cycle has already topped. Based on the intermediate cycle count in the stock market the dollar probably doesn't have more than 3-4 weeks before this rally rolls over and begins another leg down.
Saturday, October 06, 2012
No Stock Market Breakout Here..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has made a nice move off the bottom this past week, but when it ran into the highs that had thrown a gap lower and a black candle preceding that, it failed. It could not get through that gap. It could not get above that recent black candle at the top, and thus, be ready for more chop to drive you all crazy. And why not? This is how you get folks to feel like they no longer want to be part of the game. Mission accomplished by the big money. Take it down. Tease everyone on the way up. Pull the carpet out once again. Get folks frustrated. And on and on the game goes.
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Saturday, October 06, 2012
Stock Market Seasonality Revisited! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Sy_Harding
Twice a year, in April and October, I remind you of the market’s remarkable seasonality, the popular version of which is known as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’. It calls for getting out of the market on May 1st each year and back in on November 1st.
As with most investment strategies, most investors have only short-term thoughts regarding it. If it worked out the previous year or two, “Well just maybe I’ll consider it for next year.” And if it didn’t work out the previous year then clearly it’s either just a silly theory, or a strategy that may have worked in the past but the pattern has obviously come to an end.
Thursday, October 04, 2012
Stock Sentiment Improving.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
It does get boring when you have to deal with a market that whipsaws about on a daily basis. But the real question is what is the message that this whipsaw is representing. Some would interpret this as bearish behavior, while others would say they just can't figure it out. The masses will always turn negative when markets stop moving higher on a regular basis, especially when you consider the news that sits out there every day of our lives. We hear so much about the economic turmoil throughout the world. That starts to get engrained in our brains, thus, when markets correct, it feels like it must be something other than a healthy pullback to unwind things.
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Monday, October 01, 2012
Commodity Price Trends as Economic and Stock Market Indicators / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: To test the contemporaneous views I expressed four years ago, to observe similarities and differences then and now, and to determine if you agree with my current views.
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Monday, October 01, 2012
Pakistan Investing, Fundamental Economic and Markets Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Bilal_Khan
In this document we highlight our views on the key investor debates across the macro-economy, FX, fixed income, equities, precious metals and provide our views on asset allocation.
- Economics: Recent improved relations with the US and improved liquidity from the unlocking of USD flows has resulted in a degree of optimism about the future. Will this optimism last given the macro challenges?
Monday, October 01, 2012
Stock Market Scenario Favours Continuing Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The Fed has extended the SPX intermediate uptrend, but for how long?
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