Category: Recession 2015
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, November 14, 2015
How Many More U.S. Recession Confirmations Do You Need? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: James_Quinn
Despite the bogus BLS employment report last week (so the Fed could raise rates before the next financial crisis hits), all economic data confirms an economic recession. Corporate profits are falling, and their forecasts for next quarter are worse. Global trade is slowing dramatically. Oil prices and other commodities are plummeting to multi-year lows. Manufacturing and Services surveys are flashing red. China, Japan and European economies continue to suck wind. Layoff announcements by major corporations are up 40% over last year. A global deflationary recession is underway. Only a CNBC bimbo, shill or Ivy League educated economist isn’t bright enough to see it.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Ignore The Media Bullsh*t – Retail Implosion Proves We Are In Recession / Economics / Recession 2015
By: James_Quinn
Here we go again. The dying legacy media will continue to support the status quo, who provide their dwindling advertising revenue, by papering over the truth with platitudes, lies, and misinformation. I have been detailing the long slow death of retail in America for the last few years. The data and facts are unequivocal. Therefore, the establishment and their media mouthpieces need to suppress the truth.
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
For Corporations And Hedge Funds, The Next Recession Is Already Here / Companies / Recession 2015
By: John_Rubino
Wal-Mart just announced flat year-over-year sales, causing its shares to fall by 9% and wiping $20 billion from its market cap. Which would be unremarkable if the disappointment was an aberration. But it’s not. Earnings season is off to a brutal start, with big names announcing big misses all over the place. Meanwhile, the rare good numbers are mostly the result of blatant (and therefore ineffective) financial engineering. Some examples:
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Monday, October 05, 2015
U.S. Recession Watch, High-Yield – Rising Defaults / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Mauldin
“Growth is never by mere chance; it is the result of forces working together.”– J.C. Penney
“Strength and growth come only through continuous effort and struggle.”– Napoleon Hill
“We’re lost, but we’re making good time.” – Yogi Berra, 1925-2015, RIP (For a most moving and memory-laden tribute to Yogi, see The Lefsetz Letter.)
The Yogi Berra quote above, which was brought to my attention this week, seems an apt description of where the markets and the economy are today. Nobody is quite sure where we are or where we’re going, but we all seem to think we’re going to get there soon.
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Friday, October 02, 2015
A Worrying Set Of Recession Signals / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Mauldin
By John Mauldin
There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.
It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
How Should You Invest During Recession? / Stock-Markets / Recession 2015
By: Submissions
Nicholas Kitonyi writes: The general rule is that the best time to invest in the stock market is when stock prices are low, and sell when they are high. Ideally, stock prices trade at low prices during recession as compared to when the economy is expanding.
However, as many investors would tell you, it is not always that simple. In fact, sometimes it is much difficult to pick out the right stocks during recession because you never know where the recession would leave the company by the time it’s over.
Monday, September 14, 2015
No Recession, But… / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming “Great Recession” (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/here-s-when-economists-expect-to-see-the-next-u-s-recession. 2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
Job Quit Rates and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Looking for Greener Pastures?
A Chicago Fed report investigates Job Switching and Wage Growth.
Read full article... Read full article...People generally switch jobs by quitting (rather than losing) their previous job. Furthermore, the vast majority of people observed quitting their job tend to move directly to a new job, rather than becoming unemployed or exiting the labor force. Therefore, estimates of worker quits provide a good measure of job switching in the U.S. economy.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Canada in Recession Admits Canadian Central Bank, Operation Twist? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
... The Solution: More Bubbles; Operation Twist Canadian Style?
The Bank of Canada admitted on Wednesday that Canada was in Recession. Well sort of.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is afraid to speak the "R-Word". Instead, Poloz phrased it this way: "Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year."
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Thursday, May 14, 2015
US Economy Nearing Recession, Dollar Falling Hard / Economics / Recession 2015
By: John_Rubino
The dollar soars by a record amount versus the euro and the yen in 2014. And economists predict strong growth in 2015. Really? If a country can have a rapidly-appreciating currency with all the benefits that that confers, and strong economic growth with all the obvious advantages that that confers, why wouldn't everyone be going for powerhouse currencies?
Friday, May 08, 2015
Is a Global Economic Recession Coming? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last month a lot of negative data on the global economy was brought to light. China's trade plunged in March and the World Trade Organization cut the 2015 global trade growth outlook to 3.3 percent from the previous 4 percent. We have already suggested in the Gold News Monitor that weak worldwide trade indicates a coming global slowdown. It is time we shared more details and in this article we analyze whether the global economy is coming into recession and what it would mean for the gold market.
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Monday, April 13, 2015
New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
Credit Crunch Underway
Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.
His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.
First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.
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Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Is the U.S. Headed for a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Are the government's economic statistics to be trusted at all?
Every economic statistic – from gross domestic product (GDP) to employment to inflation – comes from some agency performing calculations in a complex environment. But what do these numbers actually show us? Are these figures finagled by the government or other interested parties?
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Thursday, January 15, 2015
U.S. Retail Sales Post Huge Downward Surprise, Economic Recovery Finally Over / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
So much for those allegedly strong Christmas sales. In fact, sales of nearly everything were down in the today's Commerce Department Retail Sales Report for December 2014.
Retail sales were down 0.9% compared to November vs. economist expectations of a 0.1% decrease. November was revised from +0.7 percent to +0.4 percent.
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Friday, January 09, 2015
2015: The Year of the Global Economic Slump? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
2014 ended with two ominous developments: the strength of the US dollar and a collapse in key commodity prices. It is tempting to view both events as one, but the continuing fall in oil prices through December reveals they are sequential: first there was a greater preference for dollars compared with other currencies and this still persists, followed by a developing preference for all but the weakest currencies at the expense of raw materials and energy. These are two steps on a path that should logically lead to a global slump.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Cameron Says Second Global Economic Crash is Loomin, Japan in Recession / Economics / Recession 2015
By: GoldCore
David Cameron warned last night that the global economy risked another crash and said in an article that 'red warning lights' were 'flashing on the dashboard of the global economy' and the eurozone was 'teetering on the brink' of another recession.
The warning came at the same time that the world’s largest economy, Japan, fell into another recession. Japan shrank by an annualised 1.6% in the third quarter. This followed a huge 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter caused by a rise in the national sales tax and ran counter to economists forecasts for a 2.1 percent rebound.
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Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Are You Expecting A Recession? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The folks at Bloomberg put this piece up today with the intriguing title‘Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession’, and I thought: wait a minute, that’s what people, lots of people, actually think, that there’s going to be recession. While still others will trust Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who, as the article put it, “posit an expansion that has plenty of room to run.”
For the vast majority of those in the world of finance, and probably in a much wider world, those are the options, because that’s how they think. Either more of the same, or a recession, as we know it in a cyclical sense, where the economic cycle goes up and down but in the end keeps turning up. And where any sudden moves are telegraphed well in advance by monetary authorities for the grace and benefit of them, the investors, so they don’t lose too much and can instead profit at every step, whether it’s up or down.
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