Category: Recession 2018
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, December 08, 2017
4 Charts That Show How Trump Tax Cuts Will Trigger A Recession / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Not so long ago, I explained why tax cuts won’t stimulate the economy as much as Republicans think.
In short, most CEOs say they will use any tax savings for stock buybacks or dividends, not new hiring or expansion.
But what if, instead of little or no growth, this tax bill sets off an outright contraction?
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Sunday, November 19, 2017
Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018
By: John_Rubino
Insanity, like criminality, usually starts small and expands with time. In the Fed’s case, the process began in the 1990s with a series of (in retrospect) relatively minor problems running from Mexico’s currency crisis thorough Russia’s bond default, the Asian Contagion financial crisis, the Long Term Capital Management collapse and finally the Y2K computer bug.
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Wednesday, August 30, 2017
15 Events That Could Trigger the Next Recession—And None Of Them Are Likely Now / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
In writing my latest Thoughts from the Frontline, I reached out to my contacts looking for an uber-bull—someone utterly convinced that the market is on solid ground, with good evidence for their view.
Fortunately, a good friend who must remain nameless shared with me an August 4 slide deck from Krishna Memani, Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2017
These 2 Charts Reinforce My Belief That We’ll Face A Recession In 12–18 Months / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Stock valuations are the discounted values of future earnings. Future earnings depend on future revenue, which may diminish whenever the future includes a recession. So, broad economic conditions are a big factor to watch in stock valuation.
Broad economic conditions depend ultimately on the consumer’s ability and willingness to spend money. And July’s retail sales report gave us a peek at that.
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Friday, July 28, 2017
One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis.
By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my readers and fellow analysts told me I was way too bearish.
Turned out the losses topped well over $2 trillion and triggered the financial crisis and Great Recession.
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Monday, June 05, 2017
Asset Diversification Won’t Be Enough In The Next Recession / Stock-Markets / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
Investment diversification may not help in the next global recession. Diversifying among asset classes will simply be diversifying your losses.
The entire world is getting ready to enter a period that I call the “Great Reset.” It is a period of enormous and unpredictable volatility in all asset classes. What do we do?
I think that the answer lies in diversifying among trading strategies that are not correlated to each other. And using managers who have a mandate to invest in any asset class their models tell them to.
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Thursday, May 25, 2017
The Yield Curve Is the Best Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
By Shannara Johnson : Every investor wishes he had a crystal ball. But there’s one thing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, that has predicted imminent recessions without fail.
Speaking at the Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Florida, Rosenberg pointed out that since 1950, there have been 13 cycles where the Federal Reserve tightened interest rates… and 10 of them ended in recession.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
The Next Recession Will Blow Out the Budget / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
The odds that the next US President will face a recession during his or her first four years in office are quite high. Maybe not in the first year, but it’s highly unlikely he or she will get more than two to three years without one.
Given this fiscal reality and the dwindling number of arrows left in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy quiver, the administration will have a hard time dealing with the fallout from a recession.
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