Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Is There No Escape from the Euro? / Currencies / Euro
By: Philipp_Bagus
As I discussed recently, the costs and risks of maintaining the eurozone system are already immense and rising. So is an exit possible? Intuitively, the exit from the euro should be as easy as the entrance. Joining and leaving the club should be equally simple. Leaving is just undoing what was done before. Indeed, many popular articles discuss the prospects of an exit of countries such as Greece or Germany.[1] However, other voices have rightly argued that there are important exit problems. Some authors even argue that these problems would make an exit from the euro virtually impossible. Thus, Eichengreen (2010) states, "The decision to join the euro area is effectively irreversible." Similarly, Porter (2010) argues that the large costs of an exit would make it highly unlikely. In the following we address the alleged exit problems.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
France May be the Domino that Causes the Euro to Collapse / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Commentators are wringing their hands again, worried the troubles in Spain could cause the whole euro project to collapse.
As a result, all eyes are now on Spanish 10-year debt yields, which went above 6% last week as the threat of euro-chaos returned.
But it's not Spain the markets should be worried about.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
The Fed's Currency Swap Covert Bailout of the Eurozone / Currencies / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Philipp_Bagus
On Tuesday, March 26, 2012, I was invited by Ron Paul and his staff to assist a meeting of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology Subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services. The title of the hearing was "Federal Reserve Aid to the Eurozone: Its Impact on the U.S. and the Dollar."
Unfortunately, Ben Bernanke had not come to the hearing, being busy with propaganda lectures in favor of the Fed. Instead, two of his colleagues, Mr. William C. Dudley (president and chief executive officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Dr. Steven B. Kamin (director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), showed up to answer the committee's questions on currency swaps with other central banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
The U.S. Dollar Remains the Preferred Choice of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Asha_Bangalore
The IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) database continues to indicate that dollar remains the preferred reserve currency. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the dollar made up 62.1% of official reserves vs. 61.8% in the third quarter. The dollar accounted for 61.4% of official reserves in 2011 vs. 61.8% in 2010 and 62% in 2009.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 06, 2012
The Reserve Fiat Currency Triffin Dilemma Will Create a 3-G World / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Richard_Mills
Trade imbalances - deficits and surpluses - between nations are one of the major reasons for financial crises. Countries become trapped in a vicious spiral - they accumulate debt because they are sustaining a trade deficit, the bigger their debt grows year after year, the harder it becomes to generate a trade surplus.
Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Emerging Markets Look to Drop BRICS on U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Eric_McWhinnie
On Friday, gold prices increased $17.10 per ounce while silver gained 49 cents. Despite volatile trading for the precious metals, both logged positive gains for the first quarter of 2012. Gold climbed about 6.5 percent and silver surged 16 percent. Both metals continue to receive support as countries around the world weigh financial fears. Reports of a new emerging market bank are highlighting concerns about troubled currencies.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 01, 2012
The Decline of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In our previous article we looked at whether the U.S. Dollar was headed for a major fall or not. We demonstrated how the dominance of the U.S. dollar was almost entirely dependent on the grip it had over oil producers and this allowed the oil price to be designmnated in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. has gone to war in Kuwait and Iraq over this issue under the guise of destroying "weapons of Mass Destruction" as it appears on the verge of doing in Iran. It is no coincidence that Iran has long since ceased using the dollar to price its oil. It has also eliminated the U.S. dollar from its reserves. But of greater importance to the emerging world has been the use of the Belgian-based SWIFT system of international settlements. Not only has the move stopped the sale of Iranian oil, but it has also interfered with an important source of oil to the emerging world.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Is the US Dollar Headed for a Major Fall? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
One of the facts of life over the last 40 years has been that the U.S. dollar is the world's sole global reserve currency. This is despite the fundamental factors underlying the U.S. balance of payments, which has been awful over that entire time. Nevertheless, the dollar ruled the global monetary system through these four decades and appears to be doing so still. But is that coming to an end? Next week there is a meeting of the BRIC nation over the use by the U.S. of the SWIFT system to block Iran from selling its oil. The BRIC nations are buyers of that oil. Their views on Iran's nuclear policies do not go as far as refusing to buy their oil. The SWIFT system is the system used to make international payments and covers most acceptable currencies.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Can Bernanke Break the U.S. Dollar Rally? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
In response to a bursting real estate and credit bubble in 2007 Bernanke's solution was to crank up the printing press and flood the world with dollar bills. Unfortunately it didn't solve our problems, it only made them worse. The real estate and credit bubbles stayed busted, but that liquidity had to land somewhere. In 2008 it went straight into the energy and agricultural markets spiking the price of crude, gasoline and food. This in turn collapsed a fragile global economy that was already reeling from the real estate implosion. The end result was the exact opposite of what Benjamin intended. Instead of halting the real estate collapse he just magnified the severity of the recession.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
U.S. Dollar an Euro Make Pivots / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
Marc Horn writes: US$ and Euro make pivots H2 and H-2 respectively. Expect some action over the next few days!
The DX MAP wave count is H2 of 4H5 of D4 of W-5 of M-3.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Greece is Now Irrelevant. Spain and Germany Will Decide the Euro’s Future / Currencies / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
Earlier this month, Spain began “rocking” the EU boat by telling the EU it wasn’t going to meet the new EU fiscal requirements.
Spain’s sovereign thunderclap and the end of Merkel’s Europe
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Falling U.S. Treasury Bonds, A Currency Perspective / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
What are the implications for the U.S. dollar and investors’ portfolios if bond prices continue to fall, as they have of late? Within that context, should investors care whether the U.S. retains its status as a “reserve currency”? Should it effect the way investors think about their own cash reserves?
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Why The Dollar and Stocks Could Start Moving In The Same Direction / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Bryan_Rich
The theme of the global financial markets is now moving more toward the realization that growth will be ultra-slow (if not recession like territory), unemployment will remain persistently high and global economic shocks will continue to roll through. This is an important realization. Up until recently, the consensus has been that each economic shock or event along the way has been holding the world back from a return to normalcy – a full recovery.
Friday, March 09, 2012
Should Iceland's Next Currency be Gold? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes:
My eyes nearly popped out of my head when I read this headline: "Iceland Considers Adopting Canadian Loonie."
The loonie is otherwise known as the Canadian dollar. Of course, gold would be a much a better choice as I'll explain later.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 08, 2012
How to Understand the Monetary System / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: GoldSilver
The reason the global monetary system survives is largely thanks to the public’s blissful ignorance of exactly how it works. To paraphrase one familiar analogy, if you knew how sausage was made, would you still eat it? It’s probably safe to say that the vast majority of the world’s citizens have no clue that the integrity of the currency they work for, save and use as a medium of exchange every day rests on nothing more tangible than their respective governments’ authority to and solemn promise to tax them in the future.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
Where is the Euro Headed? / Currencies / Euro
By: Submissions
Marc Horn writes: The Euro composite started as a basket index and then became the Euro Index and is pretty much as close to textbook of Andrews pitchforks. When combined with MAP waves, an alternative wave counting method base on many principles of Elliot waves, it gives good results as to approximately where the market will move.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Forex Market Trading Insight: EUR/USD Rallies...Why? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
On February 16, EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively traded forex pair, surged over 170 pips, from below $1.30 to above $1.3150.
The explanations for the strong rally boiled down to "hopes" that the Greek bond-swap deal would be reached.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Currency Market Forecasts, Forex FreeWeek is Here! / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Now through NOON Eastern time Wednesday, Feb. 29, you can have complete access to EWI's most popular service for currency traders -- for FREE!
FreeWeek is absolutely free to anyone with a Club EWI user ID and password. There's no obligation to buy, and no credit card information is required.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 20, 2012
FX Markets Analysis, Risk Trades Elongate / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Capital3X
Before we begin this analysis, please do make it a point to go through Yen charts and analysis. We were among the first to have seen through the yen weakness in early feb and has now caught over 550 pips in key yen pairs like EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY. The yen analysis has been updated with one of the charts provided in the current analysis.
The week has seen strong moves up and down for risk assets but more often than not, they have been in the channel. We take this opportunity to look at some of these pairs.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 19, 2012
The US Dollar in the week ahead / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
Dr. Chad Bennis writes: The rally in the US dollar beginning in November of last year saw a series of higher highs and higher lows in the price of the index. While the price action moved higher the stochastic indicator showed a bearish divergence as each successive higher high in the price action was reflected by a lower high in the stochastic indicator. This is known as bearish divergence and means that the current uptrend in price is getting weaker with each higher high in the price of the index.