Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
China and the Global Economic Crisis of Industrial Overcapacity / Economics / China Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
EARLY MATURITY
This term now has a special meaning. Not only OECD economies, and especially their leading industrial manufacturing sectors, but also these sectors in the Emerging economies are downsizing at an accelerating pace. After the shrink in industrial and manufacturing activity, in the mature or "post mature" OECD economies, comes the downsizing of the entire economy which in Europe, especially in the PIIGS, is now the rule and a new "tradition". Any other way is now an eccentric hope, and outside the PIIGS an increasing number of other EU27 economies are moving to net shrinkage, including the UK and France.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drop Surprise / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Mauldin
The unemployment number surprisingly dropped to 7.8% last Friday, and the shoot-from-the-hip crowd came out in force. To say that the jobs report was met with skepticism would be a serious understatement. The response that got the most immediate airplay was ex-GE CEO Jack Welch (who knows a few things about making a number say what you want it to say) tweeting, "Unbelievable job numbers ... these Chicago guys will do anything ... can't debate so change numbers."
Not be left out, Fox Business quoted Ed Butowsky of Chapwood Capital Investment: "'No way in the world these numbers are accurate,' he said. 'Somebody needs to do an investigation.... Investigate these numbers.'"
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Tuesday, October 09, 2012
U.S. Jobs Lies, Damned Lies and the 7.8% Unemployment Rate / Economics / Unemployment
By: The_Gold_Report
Shadowstats.com Author John Williams wonders if politics are at play behind the latest jobs report, which shows 114,000 new U.S. jobs since September and a 0.3% drop in unemployment since August. Investors need to know how seasonal factors and month-to-month volatility affect the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reports. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report , Williams explains why he doubts that we are in a recovery. The take-away? Look at the unadjusted figures before you sell your gold.
Monday, October 08, 2012
World's Brightest Minds Migrating to China, Brain Drain Creating the "Chinese Dream" / Economics / China Economy
By: Pravda
China actively took up the issue of attracting highly skilled professionals, scientists and managers to the country. Foreigners are offered attractive conditions, and observers are already talking of this trend as the "brain drain" into the PRC. China that does not shy away from learning from other countries intends to create the "Chinese dream".
Monday, October 08, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery? Sign's of What's Ahead / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
Several signs suggest economic contraction instead of expansion.
The first was recent front-page news: 8.1% August jobless rate. The number would have been higher, but it excludes people who gave up the job search.
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Sunday, October 07, 2012
The Iran Hyperinflation Fact Sheet / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Submissions
Steve H. Hanke writes: For months, I have been following the collapse of the Iranian rial, tracking black-market (free-market) exchange-rate data from foreign-exchange bazaars in Tehran. Using the most recent data, I now estimate that Iran is experiencing hyperinflation – a price-level increase of over 50%, per month.
Saturday, October 06, 2012
IMF Inadvertently Condemns The Eurozone, No Recovery Economic Until 2018! / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Raul_I_Meijer
No global recovery until 2018, says Oliver Blanchard at portfolio.hu.: It’s not yet a lost decade... But it will surely take at least a decade from the beginning of the crisis for the world economy to get back to decent shape.
Well, that makes it easy then, you would think. Solves a lot of problems in one go. All bailouts and loans and other measures can now be halted and reversed when and where possible. Since there is no way our central banks and governments can keep on doing what they have done for another 6 years (yeah, I know lots of you doubt that, but there's just no way).
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Saturday, October 06, 2012
U.S. Economy Never Really Recovered Since 2007-2009 Financial Crisis / Economics / Great Depression II
By: EWI
Several signs suggest economic contraction instead of expansion.
The first was recent front-page news: 8.1% August jobless rate. The number would have been higher, but it excludes people who gave up the job search.
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Friday, October 05, 2012
The Quantifornication of U.S. Housing Market, Banks and Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Mills
Overheated US housing prices started dropping in 2006. Homeowners were going underwater (they owed more than the house was worth) and many had questionable credit - "fog the mirror loans" were common, if you breathed you got a loan. *Banks sold these mortgages to agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They bundled the mortgages with other loans bearing similar interest rates and then sold them as Mortgage-backed securities (MBS), so called because their value was backed or secured by the value of the underlying mortgages.
Thursday, October 04, 2012
Tracking World Hyperinflation - The Data from Argentina to Zimbabwe / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Submissions
Steve H. Hanke writes: Hyperinflation is an economic malady that arises under extreme conditions: war, political
mismanagement, the transition from a command to market-based economy. There
are barriers to the recording and publication of reliable inflation statistics. Overcoming
these barriers is an arduous and painstaking process. This article and attached table – an
abbreviated version of a Cato Working Paper – supply, for the first time, data on all 56
episodes of hyperinflation, including several which had previously gone unreported.
Thursday, October 04, 2012
Hyperinflation Has Arrived In Iran / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Submissions
Steve H. Hanke writes: Since the U.S. and E.U. first enacted sanctions against Iran, in 2010, the value of the Iranian rial (IRR) has plummeted, imposing untold misery on the Iranian people. When a currency collapses, you can be certain that other economic metrics are moving in a negative direction, too. Indeed, using new data from Iran’s foreign-exchange black market, I estimate that Iran’s monthly inflation rate has reached 69.6%. With a monthly inflation rate this high (over 50%), Iran is undoubtedly experiencing hyperinflation.
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Thursday, October 04, 2012
Economic Reforms in India Likely To Stick This Time / Economics / India
By: Benjamin_Shepherd
India has always taken a protectionist approach to managing its economy, initially out of a certain necessity and more recently as a result of populist politics.The initial necessity arose out of a desire to develop a stronger internal economy by fostering small businesses that cater to indigenous tastes and demands. That’s no surprise, given the huge cultural disparities within the country’s regions, especially between the more cosmopolitan and richer south and the poorer north.
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Wednesday, October 03, 2012
China and Global Economic Recovery / Economics / China Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: To test the contemporaneous views I expressed four years ago, to observe similarities and differences then and now, and to determine if you agree with my current views.
Commentary then: On July 31, 2009 I commented as follows:
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Wednesday, October 03, 2012
What Parenting Teaches us About Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Bancroft
Recent BBC documentaries on the great economists have created quite a buzz in the UK. No doubt the shows are proving popular on the BBC’s international channels too. The sorry state of the global economy and withered trust in economics today prompts another look at the giants of this social science. The usual names are re-examined, including John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek.
Wednesday, October 03, 2012
Mounting Evidence for Econcomic Recession 2013 / Economics / Recession 2013
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
Don't worry about scanning headlines every day to determine the U.S. economy's chances of entering a recession in 2013.
We already know the answer.
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Sunday, September 30, 2012
U.S. Counting Down to Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: GoldSilverWorlds
John Williams, who is the founder of ShadowStats.com, stated during a recent interview that the US is on track to become victim of hyperinflation the latest in 2014. He believes that “open ended QE” (which is nothing more than monetizing debt) is the key problem. He explains there is an annual deficit of 5 trillion dollar per year in the US, which includes the unfunded liabilities. He declares the situation “beyond containment”. Central planners are responding to the current economic problems by simply increasing the amount of printed money. John Williams his expectations are that we’ll soon see a heavy sell off in the dollar, quickly followed by a significant first spike in inflation. That will ultimately lead to hyperinflation the latest somewhere in 2014. We are just before the kick off of inflation.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
China Painful Economic Rebalancing Act Ahead? / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ shows Output falls at fastest pace since March .
Read full article... Read full article...Key points
New export orders fall at fastest rate in 42 months
Friday, September 28, 2012
Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Market 20 Times Total Global Economy GDP / Economics / Derivatives
By: John_Rolls
John Rolls Submits: The Derivatives market was only 500 trillion in 2008 when it almost blew up in all our faces. Now it is 3 times that size, what a monster balloon! when it blows no one survives that has money in the banks or in the mattress. You better start investing in silver and gold which is real money not fiat. Financial hell is coming if you put your faith in the banks! .Yes it’s about capitalism but notice he also uses the politically incorrect word MORAL, no system of any type is worth using without basic ethical and moral principles as the basis of it. Needless to say, GREED runs this system and has for quite a while and unless and until honor and virtue replace it…the system will continue to increase unpayable debt and bring the economic system to a tragic and very messy ruin.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Balancing Lenders and Borrowers is the Most Economically Stimulating / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: John_Handbury
Keeping interest rates low has always been perceived to be stimulating. This is based on the premise that borrowers are more inclined to borrow when rates are low. This is undeniably true, however, this simplification totally removes the lenders from the equation, which have an equal role in stimulation.
By definition the maximum activity (thereby stimulation) occurs when the number of borrowers is the same as the number of lenders. By definition this occurs at the MARKET PRICE. To artificially move rates either way from the market price suppresses either one group or the other and thereby de-stimulates.
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Monday, September 24, 2012
Keynsian Animal Spirits / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The BBC is running a three-part series on notable economists, starting with Keynes. There were a number of errors made, but I shall ignore those and address two Keynesian fallacies. The first was that Keynes correctly anticipated the economic and political consequences of the Versailles Treaty, which inflicted punitive reparations on Germany: this was true. It was bizarrely extrapolated to the current situation, concluding that Germany must reduce its prosperity and economic power to a level closer to that of the other Eurozone countries in the interests of economic balance.
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