Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 06, 2008
May Jobs: US Unemployment Skyrockets to 5.5% Confirming Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yahoo!Finance is reporting Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May .
The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May — the biggest monthly rise since 1986 — as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs. The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling job opportunities in a time of continuing hardship in the housing, credit and financial sectors.
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Friday, June 06, 2008
The Spin On Jobs Statistics- Non-Farm Payrolls Friday / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Given that it takes 150,000 jobs to keep up with birthrate, anything under 100,000 jobs is a weak showing. Numbers under 50,000 are actually pathetic. However, it's easy to put a positive spin on things when expectations are in the gutter.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 06, 2008
Ben Bernanke Soaking the Rich at Harvard / Economics / Money Supply
By: John_Browne
This week I watched Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke charm the rain soaked graduating class of Harvard, my Alma Mater. As he spoke, I was reminded of an anecdote that President Franklin Roosevelt was alleged to have made during the commencement speech he gave at Harvard in 1936. Amidst a similar downpour, Roosevelt apparently said, “Well, Harvard sure knows how to soak the rich!” Fittingly, Bernanke graduated from Harvard in 1975, and his current policies are doing just that. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
The Trillion Dollar Debt Countdown / Economics / US Debt
By: David_Vaughn
Has anyone forgotten the national debt? And I don't mean the yearly imbalance that merely makes up a fraction of the whole. We seem to discount this theme quite easily most of the time. Part of the reason for this is that we continue to add sand to a sand castle that is already too high and has begun to be buffeted by the waves. We have an election coming up that is probably the most important presidential election in years. In the past four decades there have been tremendous ideological shifts in political theory. Now long over due liberal trends and social changes are right on our horizon. In other words begin to look for even more government intervention in our lives.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecasts Continue to be Revised Lower for 2008 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The OECD, Inline with many economic forecasting organisations have in recent months revised UK growth forecasts lower, today the OECD announced that UK growth for 2008 is expected to be 1.8% against 2% in Dec 07, and growth for 2009 to fall to 1.4%.
The organisation cited the weakening housing market and the tight credit conditions for the the lower growth forecast and urged the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold to help curb rising inflation.
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Wednesday, June 04, 2008
US Living Standards and Productivity / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Boring as this might seem to some of our rightwing pundits, we can get no where in economic debate without the application of theory. Many of the questions that are popping up these days are linked to the alleged connection between productivity, unemployment and inflation. There are no links here in the functional sense. In a free market unemployment will not rise even where productivity is falling.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Lies, Damn Lies, and Government Statistics / Economics / Recession
By: Dr_William_R_Swagell
“Every single release of late has afforded both bulls and bears the chance to grab onto data to support their view of the economy, but it does not do a whole lot for those in search of clarity.”
To those words by Richard Moody (chief economist Mission Residential) may we all say “Amen”.
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Tuesday, June 03, 2008
US Economy in Deflationary Death Spiral / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Whitney
Look around. The evidence of a withering economy is everywhere. In "good times" consumers shun the canned meat aisle altogether, but no more. Today, Spam sales are soaring; grocery stores can't keep it on the shelves. Everyone is looking for cheaper ways to feed their families. The Labor Dept. assures us that core-inflation is only 4 per cent, but everybody knows it's load of malarkey. Food prices are going through the roof. White bread is up 13 percent, bacon is up 7 percent and peanut butter is up 9 percent. Inflation is rampant and there's no end in sight. The dollar is closing in on the peso and working people are struggling just to get by. The bottom line is that more and more people in "the richest country on earth" are now surviving on processed pig-meat. That says it all. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2008
Are Subsistence Wages Killing The United States? / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
I received an interesting Email last week from Minyan "MC" who is concerned about globalization's effect on jobs and wages. Let's tune in to his thoughts: There is a mania in this country to slash wages to a subsistence level (or worse). This is a symptom of the greed and corporate cronyism that is killing the country.
The powers-that-be that run the US are determined to crush wages, even when they realize that people are doing without food, health insurance, etc. We keep hearing news stories that about 10% of our population doesn't have sufficient food? The root cause is the mania to cut wages and lay off workers.
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Monday, June 02, 2008
Betting on Biggs and other Economic Predictions / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Petillo
Some folks would like to call these days an inflection point. But that would be a prediction. The markets are going up, down and sideways in an unpredictable way and yet we are still trying to divine some semblance of normal where normal may not exist.
Douglas Noël Adams, the late author of the classic Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy suggested that, "Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." But in days like these, where experience seems to be as passé as our dominance on the global economy, who do you listen to?
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Monday, June 02, 2008
Why Consumer Spending Won't Save the US Economy from Depression / Economics / US Economy
By: Gerard_Jackson
Regardless of the spiteful attempts of the Democrats and a corrupt media, the US economy is not going to sink into a depression. (When in 2000 Cheney observed, correctly, that the economy was in recession he was accused by the same corrupt media and the Democrats of trying "to talk down the economy"). Some economic commentators have stressed that based on a year-over-year basis GDP rose by 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year, most of it due the country's export boom.
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Saturday, May 31, 2008
US Economy Stuck in the Purple Haze of Stagflation / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
With the economy caught somewhere in the purple haze between recession and anemic growth, many market prognosticators have been making the case that the worst is behind us.
With respect to the credit crisis, I do think that with the exception of a few nerve-rattling write-offs still to come, that is true. Credit spreads have begun to narrow, volatility measures seem to have settled down in recent weeks and the very unorthodox liquidity measures taken by the Fed appear to have calmed the nerves of market actors and appears to be in the process of pushing the market back towards something approximating normalcy.
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Friday, May 30, 2008
The False Prosperity of Inflationary Booms / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
"...So what's not to love about an inflationary boom...?"
"EVER WONDERED WHY your family budgets never seem to work out as planned?" asked Harry Browne in his 1970 best-seller, How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation .
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Friday, May 30, 2008
Indonesia Dumps Corrupt OPEC for the Good Guys and Greater Profits / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Martin_Hutchinson
At times, you can tell a country by the company it keeps. Indonesia just announced it plans to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the infamous cartel that tries to push our oil prices through the roof.
That decision may not seem very significant, but consider it this way: If you were Indonesia, which countries would you rather have as your buddies? A bunch of sleazy, corrupt, idle “lottery winners” such as Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola? Or would you prefer a set of hard-working and diligent neighbors such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand? Not to mention two of the largest growth economies in the world: India and China?
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Friday, May 30, 2008
CNNMoney.com's ‘Great Depression Comparisons Misguided' Conflicts with Historical Fact / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Paul_Lamont
After reading CNNMoney.com Editor Paul La Monica's piece on the comparisons to the Great Depression , we felt compelled to respond. Unfortunately for Mr. La Monica, the article regurgitates common beliefs about the Depression which conflict with historical fact and basic economics. We hope to set things straight. We begin with Mr. La Monica's words:
“ The unemployment rate skyrocketed during the Depression, peaking at nearly 25% in 1933. The current unemployment rate is just 5%. And that's only up from 4.5% a year ago. Contrast that with the far more explosive spike at the beginning of the Great Depression - from about 3% in 1929 to nearly 8.7% in 1930, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census.”
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Thursday, May 29, 2008
Latest Banking-Sector Credit Crisis Are Bank Owned Life Insurance Vehicles / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald
Three major U.S. banks - including Fifth Third Bancorp. ( FITB ) and Wachovia Corp. ( WB ) - got clobbered in recent days on the news that they've lost another $1.6 billion by making investments in the Citigroup Inc. ( C ) Falcon hedge fund that lost 75% of its value earlier this year.
It's just the latest chapter in a continuing credit-crisis saga that's gone on for so long that many investors have become numb to the news: They regard all new developments with a kind of "so what" attitude, or just ignore the news completely.
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Thursday, May 29, 2008
Manipulated Economic Statistics and the Battle for Citizenry Perceptions / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: John_Browne
With consumer confidence now testing generational lows, our politicians are never the less continuously assuring us that the economy is strong, and that there is no cause for worry.
Although it is standard procedure for governments to soothe their citizenry with placebo politics in order to avoid panic and uprising, there is a line after which such a campaign is counterproductive. In fact, misleading statements about financial security are potentially dangerous to the country's long term economic well being, and potentially toxic to investors.
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Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Central Banks Joined in the Inflation Targeting Craze / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
rt = g rt- 1 + (1 -g ) rt* + q [ Et pt+j – p* ]
"If we wait until a price movement is actually afoot before applying remedial measures, we may be too late..." John Maynard Keynes, A Tract on Monetary Reform (1923)
JUST WHAT ARE central banks for exactly?
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Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Higher Prices Here to Stay / Economics / Inflation
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Absent big economic news, a few rumors of buyouts affecting select stocks, the markets were focused on energy prices and their new ascent to dizzying heights. Cuts of SUV production by Ford and reports of sales up over 20% of hybrid vehicles (not to mention articles about motorized scooters) indicate consumers are beginning to seriously look at changing their driving habits. While conservation remains a couple of years away, the fact that much of the discussion has finally hit the table is a good start.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Greenspan's Incessant Contradictory Ramblings / Economics / Liquidity Bubble
By: Brady_Willett
In yet another attempt to defend his legacy, Greenspan resorts to semantics and outrageous contradiction ( FT Article ). On the topic of asset ‘bubbles' – which Greenspan preferred to completely ignore as they acquired air and help reflate after they burst – he asked the following: “Is there a bubble today in food, energy, gold, currencies? If so, what specifically should we do about it?”
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