Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 27, 2017
BEA Estimates US 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter.
The quarter to quarter decline in the headline growth rate came from a number of sources: the growth of consumer spending on services was more than halved (down -0.68%), exports went into contraction (off a dramatic -1.69%) and imports were down yet another -0.86%. Partially offsetting those declines were upticks in consumer spending on goods (up +0.34%), and increases in the growth rate for commercial fixed investment (+0.65%) and inventories (+0.51%).
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Thursday, January 26, 2017
Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like / Economics / Inflation
By: EWI
Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like
Chart of the Day
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Thursday, January 26, 2017
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom! Academic and Mainstream Press Clueless Reporting Continues / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now over six months since the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, a message that clueless academics have continued to regurgitate across the mainstream press for the duration since. However, the most recent economic data continues to paint the exact opposite picture as GDP for the last 3 months of 2016 came in at a very healthy 0.6%. Which in itself followed 0.6% for the preceding quarter, a time when the UK economy was supposed to be in a state of economic collapse! A collapse that has FAILED to materialise! Instead the UK is probably the worlds fastest growing developed economy.
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
We Could See US Job Creation Fall off the Cliffs in the Months Ahead / Economics / Employment
By: Harry_Dent
Let’s do a quick thought experiment…Imagine you’ve got two people in the workforce. Let’s say one is 40 and the other 65.
When both are gainfully employed, the unemployment rate is 0%. We’re enjoying full employment within the labor pool.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Trumping World Trade / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the inauguration, President Trump has begun to reset the White House trade policies. But the consequences of “America First” stance in world trade are wrought with threats.
Recently, President Xi Jinping gave a strong speech about the need for more inclusive globalization at Davos. World trade is a case in point.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Protection Will Lead to Great Prosperity / Economics / Protectionism
By: Gary_Tanashian
After being mostly off the grid on Friday, I listened to the Trump inauguration speech on Saturday morning. While I have lots of thoughts and opinions, I want to focus on an item where I am qualified; namely my former area of expertise as someone who was in essence told by the media over and over again "you don't exist", while the consumerist, financialized and globalized economy flourished. By "you" I of course mean me, an owner of a small American manufacturing business. My area of focus from the speech...
Saturday, January 21, 2017
AI and Robotics - We Are All Low-Skilled Workers Now / Economics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : The news headlines after last week’s jobs report proved it again: Life is hard (and getting harder) for low-skilled workers. Illegal immigrants take their service industry jobs. Robots take their manufacturing industry jobs.
According to the media, many low-skilled workers have simply given up. They’re dropping out of the labor force, going on welfare, overdosing on drugs. Their lives are terrible, and everyone wants to help.
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Friday, January 20, 2017
Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.
During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.
Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.
Monday, January 16, 2017
The US Economy Could Turn Around in 2017—Or Crash / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Markets have rallied since November on the expectation that Trump and the Republicans will quickly enact a growth-oriented economic agenda—including tax cuts, regulatory relief, and targeted economic stimulus projects.
As I talk to people involved in the transition, I am gaining more confidence that a good part of that agenda will actually be realized. It’s clear to me that the right people want it to happen, at least.
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Saturday, January 14, 2017
It’s Confirmed, the US is Officially in Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
The US is officially in a recession.
This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017
10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We’ve reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we’re at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.
I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017—optimistic, meaning I think we will Muddle Through—but that’s a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. However, midcourse corrections may be warranted.
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Sunday, January 08, 2017
In a Lawless World, Rules STILL Matter / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andy_Sutton
While economics is a science and should be treated as such, economic forecasting is both a science and an art at the same time. However, anyone can forecast. Just like anyone can forecast the weather. To do so accurately and furthermore to do so frequently is a true talent. We think of it along the lines of the ability to hit a major league fastball; a gift granted to maybe 1 in 500 or a thousand babies each year. Then add to that the ability to hit a major league fastball for an average of .300 over an entire career and we’re talking a few babies in an entire generation.
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Will Trump Bring Inflation to America’s Shores? / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason: Something is brewing in the economy. Since the election of Donald Trump, interest rates have spiked, copper prices have surged, and various sectors of the stock market have swung “bigly” on speculation of what “Trumponomics” will bring.
Scores of triumphant Republican commentators are already painting a bullish picture of the Trump economy. The GOP – which will control the White House, Congress, and most state governments – has a rare opportunity to implement a pro-growth agenda.
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Thursday, December 22, 2016
Trump Protectionism, Trade Chief Peter Navarro – and The Quest To Demonize China / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
While most Americans view China as friendly though not as an ally, those who favor demonizing China seek to change both perceptions and realities. Starting in January, these trade protectionists will lead US policies in the White House.
Recently, President-elect Trump chose Harvard-trained economist Peter Navarro to head the newly-created National Trade Council (NTC) in the White House to oversee industrial policy. Targeting the trade deficit is expected to pave way to Trump’s “First America” trade protectionism.
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Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Warnings We’ll Wish We’d Heeded — Plunging US Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Rubino
It’s the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they’d paid attention to history.
This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed.
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Monday, December 19, 2016
A KEYNESIAN CHALLENGE: Prove Deflation is Bad For ME! / Economics / Deflation
By: Gordon_T_Long
'Mish' Shedlock and Gordon T Long discuss a number of outstanding issues in 2016 that will become Themes in 2017.
Economic Challenge to Keynesian's
Mish is quite emphatic that:
"Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them. The BIS did a study and found routine deflation was not any problem at all.
“Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive,” stated the BIS study.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2016
China's Unfinished Trade Revolution / Economics / China
By: STRATFOR
Dec. 11 marks the 15th anniversary of China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Measured by its impact on the Chinese economy, which has grown almost tenfold since 2001, accession to the WTO was no less momentous than the epochal changes ushered in by the start of "Reform and Opening" in 1978 or the fiscal and political recentralization that followed the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. In the scale and speed of changes it wrought on Chinese society and politics, WTO accession was hardly less revolutionary than the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1961 or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. And in terms of their import for the structure of the global economy, few events in recent memory equal China's entry into the organization. By virtually any indicator, Dec. 11, 2001, was an inflection point not only for China's economy but also for much of the world's. But the anniversary also highlights how Chinese integration into the global economy remains incomplete.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Why Market, Economic Collapse isn't on the Menu / Economics / Economic Collapse
By: Clif_Droke
The word "collapse" instantly conjures primal feelings of both fear and excitement whenever we hear it. We fear it because it evokes our collective belief that collapse is fatal and final, yet it excites our imagination to the possibility, however, remote, that perhaps we'll be among the lucky few to survive and even prosper from it.
Whether in reference to a financial market crash or the collapse of government, the very idea has given birth to a plethora of writings on the subject. Indeed, some of the top selling books in the financial literature category in recent years have had collapse as the subject matter, for writers instinctively know they can always count on a visceral reaction from their readers whenever they write of it.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Do Larger Federal Budget Deficits Stimulate Spending? Depends On Where The Funding Comes From / Economics / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
I’d like to share a counterintuitive argument against the concept that fiscal deficits and/or infrastructure spending consititute effective economic stimulus. It comes from Paul Kasriel (one of my favorite reads when he was at Northern Trust, before he retired). He always has a way of looking at things from different angles than everybody else does.
Paul notes that the post-election US stock market rally has been due in part to the expectation that the Trump administration will enact stimulative fiscal policies, which in turn will jumpstart growth. But Paul begs to differ on that last point.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Trump’s Private Sector Appointments Signal A Rollback Of The Regulatory State / Economics / Market Regulation
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I feel good about the nomination of Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary. A banker (a not a political hack) in that seat is all right by me. Seriously. And Wilbur Ross as Commerce Secretary? Terrific.
I can’t tell you how happy I am to have private sector guys in these positions of power.
I’ll be candid—for eight years, under Obama, business was the enemy. That mindset is changing. It seems foreign because it’s been so long.
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