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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 08, 2021

Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.

Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, December 07, 2021

Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we’ve been watching the markets recoil away from risks related to the new Omicron COVID variant and other factors, one simple thought keeps running through my head. What if the markets suddenly shift away from this panic selling and resume a rally/recovery trend – possibly pushing to new all-time highs before the end of the year?

Recently, the Put/Call ratio reached a moderate-high near 0.84. I interpret this as long traders buying protection in the event of an extended breakdown in the US/global markets. In the past, typically, when the Put/Call ratio reaches levels above 0.80 – the markets are very close to a bottom.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 06, 2021

S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction?

For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.

The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines.

The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Stock-Markets

Monday, December 06, 2021

Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Almost all of the US and global markets volatility has taken place over the last 6+ trading days. Even though economic data continues to show a strengthening US economy and jobs market, the news of the Omicron COVID variant has spooked the global markets. I’m going to illustrate how the markets are nearing critical support levels that are a “Do-Or-Die” level for the market, in my opinion.

Let’s get right into the charts – shall we?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, December 05, 2021

How Stagflation Effects Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My long standing mantra has been that one of the primary reasons to remain invested in AI tech stocks is because they are leveredged to inflation, which on an average basis is true. However when gauging how each individual stock will react to inflation one needs to take key points into consideration such as the stocks valuation where an over valued stock trading on many multiples of the markets average of 20 is going to be finally balanced on a knife edge of future gains vs a bear market where it only takes a small shift in investor expectations to send that stock sharply lower.

Whilst the basic reason why AI stocks are leveraged to inflation is because inflation will inflate their revenues and costs and given that AI stocks are highly profitable then the gap between revenues and costs should expand due to inflation hence are leveraged to inflation.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 04, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is overbought on multitude of measures and ripe for significant correction even if many people are expecting it to happen. Though I hear many people stating that because so many are expecting a correction therefore it's sods law that it's not going to happen so don't risk missing out on another 10% bull ruin by waiting for a correction!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery.  Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking.  What’s next?

Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks

This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?

The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor

One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…

This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.

***

“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”

That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.

Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.

New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.

Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…

But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.

Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.

Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.

Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”

Source: WSJ

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.

Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 26, 2021

Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?

The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:

(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.

Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.

Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.

My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?

For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.

The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 22, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 20, 2021

US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Some indicators are making records"

It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.

For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.

Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.

Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.

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