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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2021

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 01, 2021

Stock Market Bull Run Ignoring Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reached new highs powered by technology, even as value or Russell 2000 took a daily breather. With VIX going nowhere, and the put/call ratio turning complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher, and not even emerging markets are derailed by the strong dollar. While yesterday‘s stock market upswing was a defensive one as the credit markets and tech internals reveal, there is little to upset the cart – Thursday‘s ISM manufacturing will probably show solid expansion, and it would be only Friday‘s non-farm payrolls (better said what effect these could have on the Fed‘s labor market rationale for keeping the punch bowl available) to bring about volatile trading.

With the Fed support intact and fiscal one not retreating either, with inflation expectations not spiking, the current data are disregarded to a degree. Incorrectly in my view as Friday‘s:

(…) PCE deflator ... figure aligned with the inflation camp much better, yet the marketplace arguably expects better inflation data ahead - the transitory inflation thesis is the mainstream one, but I‘m still of the opinion that inflation wouldn‘t decline as meaningfully, especially when measured through CPI, PPI, and import-export prices, proving more persistent than generally appreciated.

The Fed is behind the curve in taking on inflation even according to El-Erian, and its monetary actions support both the Treasury markets and the red hot real estate. The lull in Treasuries is likely to last into the autumn, and the ensuing yields increase would reflect both the economic recovery and newfound appreciation of inflation. I maintain we‘re still in a reflation – a period of economic growth stronger than inflation – in a multi-year economic expansion, and also that inflation will surprise those considering it transitory (as if this word had any meaning still attached, after all the time length redefinitions). As a side note, if only consumer price inflation was measured without substitution, hedonistic adjustments, and owner‘s equivalent rent. In this environment, tech is unlikely to be derailed, and value will play catch up.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 28, 2021

Stock Market Final try at SPX 4310? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 25, 2021

Are The US Major Stock Market Indexes Rolling Over In An Excess Phase Peak Setup? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, I published a research article on Bitcoin suggesting there may be a bigger downside price move setting up – breaking support near $30k and extending the Excess Phase Peak pattern that we warned about back in November 2020.  Today, my team and I wanted to alert you that the recent price rotation in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Transportation Index COULD setup in an early stage (Phase #2) peaking formation similar to what started the recent down trend in Bitcoin.

The setup of the Excess Phase peak pattern consists of an exuberant rally to a peak (Phase #1), followed by a moderate price correction that sets up into a sideways flagging pattern (Phase #2).  If the INDU and TRAN continue to move in a sideways flagging formation after recently move moderately lower, we may start to see a new Excess Phase Peak setup in these two major indexes. This could be a warning of a much bigger breakdown in trend in the near future.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Stock Market Calling the Fed‘s Bluff / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 risk-on trading yesterday confirmed that it would have indeed been too early to write off value stocks. Financials, energy sprang higher, accompanied by the as of late usual tech suspect – the heavyweights though merely defended gained ground. Coupled with the credit market perspectives, it was a clear risk-on day as evidenced by the VIX and put/call ratio. The markets have turned on a dime, ignoring the Fed messaging of prior week as shown in the surging CRB index, reversing dollar and Treasuries:

(…) Given the ease with which precious metals and then select commodities such as copper or soybeans tumbled, rate hikes might appear to be baked in the cake now – but in reality, it‘s the unyielding inflation that would prove rather persistent than transitory.

The Fed did the bare minimum, acknowledging inflation in passing, implying it would go away on its own. But it‘s more complicated than that – bank credit creation isn‘t strong, and had been declining before bond yields bottomed in Aug 2020. Are banks reluctant to lend, or customers to borrow? The result of production not ramping up as wildly as expected (reopening trades) is compounding the disturbed supply chains and commodity prices rising (cost-push inflation). Add to that job market pressures, and you have a recipe for inflation being more transitory than originally thought. In other words, cyclical and structural as import-export prices hint at too.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Stock Market Correction Starting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection and turned down from 4257

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?

If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.

Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.

My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?

Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at agratianj@gmail.com
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 09, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Prepare For Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

While some of you think that I dismiss your comments to my articles, I will be honest with you that some comments make me think, whereas some just make me scratch my head.

Last week, I outlined one of the issues that many have with EW, and that is related to the provision of a primary count and an alternative count. And, I addressed that concern as follows:

Again, this is simply based upon a lack of understanding as to how Elliott Wave analysis works. I have addressed this argument many times before, but I think it is worthwhile to address it one more time.

First, one has to ask themselves if any methodology will provide "definitive" guidance in the financial markets? Remember, we deal with a non-linear environment, and need to apply a non-linear methodology to obtain the greatest success within such an environment.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 08, 2021

Stock Market Approaching an Intermediate peak! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.

One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.

Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom.  The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price.  Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.

I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets.  Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high.  It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 04, 2021

Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The country has largely been divided into two camps. The first camp is full of people who just don’t pay too much attention. They have unshakable faith in Wall Street and government institutions.

The typical investor buys stocks for the long haul. It might be because financial advisors are just as unquestioning, knowing they are rarely criticized for following the herd.

Sadly, mainstream advisors still snicker whenever a client brings up gold – even though the naysayers have been wrong about gold for 20 years.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 04, 2021

US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel.  This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021.  My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors. 

When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 02, 2021

Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend.  As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months.  The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case).  But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.

Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14.  We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate. 

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move in the high yield corporate bonds would speak in favor of a reversal, but only until the higher end of the debt markets is examined. Or the volume for that matter, as these would put the reversal hypothesis to rest.

VIX continues turning lower, and option traders are getting the message – finally, the put/call ratio appears to be on a declining path, meaning that fewer market participants are expecting another shoe to drop. As if one fell in the first place, really. Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.

One more proof why the stock market bears are at a disadvantage, comes from other indices, namely the Russell 2000 (look for value to benefit), and emerging markets. The magic of ample Fed support is making its way through the system, lifting prices in many asset classes amid still rampant speculation. It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 01, 2021

Stock Market Consolidation Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Friday, May 28, 2021

Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Five more small cap high risk stocks with the potential to X10 to invest in for 2021 and beyond, which follows on from my analysis of 9th of April How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond featuring 5 stocks as I am seeking to replenish my portfolio after many former small cap high risk stocks have either been taken over or migrated into becoming 'safe' stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and TSMC, where the best of the new stocks in terms of current valuations was Corsair.

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Forecasts

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Looking Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soon Coming Stock Market Crash! / Forecasts / Stock Market 2021

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The charts below (SPX and GDX) show what I believe will happen into the month of June where I believe an important top will occur before a summer crash. The prognostication is not meant to take the place of the regular 2-3 e-mails I send out to my subs every day, but as generally expected future wave count with close projections for price and time projections as best I can determine based on the cycles of the past.

The first chart of the SPX shows the S&P 500 and its dramatic rising wedge pattern being formed since the Oct 30, 2020 bottom. I believe the orthodox E-Wave top occurred on April 16, 2021, with everything else being the irregular topping patterns that tend to occur right before a crash of note.

The big astrological implications for social-unrest, and a possible civil war and even a major world war, surround the 90-year passages of Saturn square Uranus (1931-32, 1861-62, 1771-72) and the 84-Year Cycle of Uranus in Taurus (1934-42, 1850-58, 1768-76), which are coming together here in the classic “Perfect Storm”.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 24, 2021

Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends.  A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend:  Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.


Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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