Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Long View / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Unfortunately, this chart doesn’t go back prior to 1990, but there are clues that tell me where we are in the Elliott Wave structure. Wave III, for example, is exactly 12.9 years long. It is followed by a Triangle Wave IV, which is 3.87 years long.
Wave V is nearing an end. It is trading in a very straight trading channel. (It looks managed, don’t you think?) It is highly probable that the end of the T-bond uptrend may get a little help from a decline in equities. If so, a peak between the end of April and mid-May in bonds may correspond very neatly with the next potential bottom in the SPX. In other Words, the “flow” will be out of stocks and into bonds.
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Tuesday, January 06, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bond Bull Market Refuses to Die / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Norcini
Call this the market that simply will not die. As mentioned in some previous posts, just about the time one thinks that this market is finally ready to turn lower marking the onset of the end of the ultra-low long term interest rates and the inception of the new trend towards higher rates, back up it goes and down go the rates.
Between US investors seeking safe havens due to slowing growth and falling crude oil prices, and foreign investors looking for higher yielding alternatives to their own government bonds, ( which pay next to nothing not to mention the currency risk that they are exposed to thanks to the soaring US Dollar), bond bears haven't a chance in here.
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Bond Market Bubble is Reaching Epic Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
The 10-Year Bond now has a Yield of 2.08% right before the all-important Fed Quarterly Meeting and Press Conference this Wednesday, the 10-Year basically lost 24 basis points in a week, and mind you the week right after the strongest Employment Report (a positive 321,000 jobs added for the month) since the Financial Crisis, capping what has been a remarkable year in added jobs to the US economy, even wages spiked 0.4 % with strong upward employment revisions for the prior months. In short, in a normal functioning Bond Market Yields should be rising with improved economic conditions. Especially in a week with a robust Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % for the month. Bond Yields in the US should be much higher given the strong economic performance for 2014, and the Fed not only exiting QE, but about to start raising rates in 2015.
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Sunday, October 12, 2014
The 5–Year U.S. Treasury Bond is Emblematic of Careless Risk Taking in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Dovishness Begets Excessive Risk Taking by Speculators
The Fed minutes came out this past week and they mentioned the strong dollar and less than stellar growth out of Europe, basically more over the top dovishness which just encouraged more unwise risk taking in the bond markets. This week Dallas Fed's Fisher said that they have identified areas of risk in markets, and James Bullard has said on several occasions that the markets are even behind the most dovish participants at the Federal Reserve regarding the forecasts for rate hikes, and the actual market actions of participants.
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Friday, October 03, 2014
U.S. Bond Market Fourth Quarter Trade of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.
The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.
With fewer stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages each week, while the broad market S&P 500 index continues to rising, this bearish divergence is a red flag for long term investors.
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Thursday, October 02, 2014
U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Voodoo Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Austin_Galt
There looks to be a solid opportunity arising to get involved on the long side here. Let's investigate taking a top down approach beginning with the yearly chart.
Wednesday, October 01, 2014
How stable is the U.S. Bond Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: BATR
Seldom does the enormous bond market turn on the fate of a single trader. Well, the news that Bill Gross was leaving Pimco under suspicious circumstances did not go unnoticed. The WSJ writes:
“The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note was hovering around 2.506% immediately before the disclosure that Mr. Gross was leaving the hundreds-of-billions of dollars in Treasurys and other debt he oversaw at Pimco to go to rival firm Janus Capital Group Inc.
Within a half-hour, the yield jumped to 2.546%. While a move of 0.04 percentage point may not seem like much in that period of time, it was perceptible enough in the $12 trillion Treasury market that several traders and strategists attributed it to the news about Mr. Gross.”
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Thursday, September 18, 2014
A New Fed Playbook for the New Normal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
While many economists and market watchers have failed to notice, we have entered a new chapter in the short and checkered history of central banking. This paradigm shift, as yet unaddressed in the textbooks, changes the basic policy tools that have traditionally defined the sphere of macroeconomic decision-making.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Are Government Bonds Really ‘Safe’? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
By Dickson Buchanan Jr., Director of International Development:
One of the striking ironies of our modern economy is that government bonds are considered safe-haven investments, while gold is a “barbarous relic” to be avoided at all costs. Since the 2008 financial collapse, the bond market has been on a tear, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s endless interest rate suppression. This has only served to reinforce the traditional notion that government bonds are “safe.”Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
10 Year U.S. Treasury Short Best Place to be Remainder of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Strategically Shorting Bonds
I have been shorting the 10 year Treasury strategically the last 6 months buying the oversold yield conditions right before the employment report ramp up in yields, it has been quite an effective trading strategy this year, and has contributed in part along with some oil and equity trades to being up over 30% versus the overall market returns for both bond and stock investors which we just approximate to the 10% range year to date depending upon exact portfolio mix.
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Wednesday, September 10, 2014
What Chimpanzees Can Teach Us about Convertible Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Don_Miller
In a renewed commitment to finally learn Spanish, one of my colleagues spent quite a bit of time this week awkwardly saying, “Qué es eso?” into the headset Rosetta Stone provides with its language learning programs. Translation: “What’s that?”
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Monday, September 08, 2014
U.S. Treasury Bull Market 33rd Anniversary of The Greatest Risk Adjusted Returns in Anglo-American History / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jas_Jain
As we approach the 33rd anniversary of the bull market in the US Treasury 30-year bond, the up-trend in the price, or downtrend in the yield, is fully intact as can be seen in Figure 1.
Saturday, September 06, 2014
Why There’s Just One Convertible Bond Fund You Should Hold Now / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Casey_Research
By Andrey Dashkov
It might as well be July in San Francisco. There’s fog about why any investor would want to hold convertible bonds in her portfolio, and I’m here to clear that fog away. Their yields aren’t high, their credit ratings often look shaky, and the bonds themselves are quite hard to understand due to their hybrid nature and built-in options.
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Wednesday, September 03, 2014
The U.S. Government Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Moses_Kim
What follows will read like an indictment on our entire economic system. But underlying my (relatively mild) harangue is an observation that people are ignoring the most obvious bubble out there; that is, the bubble in U.S. government bonds. The following is my attempt to figure out why.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
The Bond Market is taking Advantage of Janet Yellen`s Dovishness / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Push the Limits
It has been a common theme in financial markets to push the limits on any possible edge, so if there are restrictions on banks and financial institutions use of leverage, lobby for change, or if activity falls under a certain governmental regulation, alter the activity so that it is classified under a different interpretation so that previous limits can be exceeded.
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Sunday, August 17, 2014
The Federal Reserve in Denial Mode - Bond Market Explained / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Business Media Rock Star
On Thursday Mohamed A. El-Erian was on CNBC`s Halftime Report and he said something that a lot of people have been saying regarding the bond market, and it needs to be cleared up, because the amount of poor understanding regarding the bond market by people who make their living, i.e., are in the financial market business is astounding. It is even more mind blowing given that Mohamed A. El-Erian actually worked at a Bond Firm in PIMCO, and helped manage Harvard` s endowment in the past.
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Friday, August 15, 2014
Bonds Persist in Their Warning About the U.S. Economy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
Bonds do not like economic strength, but love economic weakness.
It makes sense. In a strong economy there is upward pressure on interest rates, and therefore on bond yields. When bond yields go up, their prices go down.
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Sunday, August 10, 2014
The Bottom Is In For US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Russian Invasion Tension
It occurred Friday morning while most traders were asleep in illiquid markets where the 10-Year was forced down to basically 2.35% in Yield first on Ukraine worries over the Russian buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border, and then on the announcement that the US would provide air strikes in Iraq to stem ISIS aggression.
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Wednesday, August 06, 2014
Inflation Adjusted Bond Prices Tell Different Story on Relative Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
One of the arguments for why US Bonds are such an attractive investment even at these low yields is that relative to European Bonds the US Treasuries provide such a higher yield, but this analysis is shortsighted because it fails to take into account the factor of inflation. Once you adjust yields based upon inflation it tells investors an entirely different story in regards to relative value of bonds and the comparison is different between European and US Bonds.
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Saturday, July 19, 2014
U.S. Bond Yield Carry Traders Need To Fade Upcoming Econ Events / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
Fading Strong Employment Reports
The trend in the bond markets the last several months, and basically all of 2014 has been to buy bonds in the dead periods of econ reports, or the econ reports that would be detrimental to their non-growth, more dovish Fed case. And the last several weeks have been similar to the prior months, basically wait for the stellar job`s report blows yields up to 2.70% on the 10-Year and then buy bonds, pushing down yields in the three weeks after the Employment Report, with the goal of getting out before the next Employment Report.
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